The Raiders were good last year. Actually that is underselling it, they were wonderful last year. They were fun and exciting to watch, playing attacking football that even the best defensive sides in the comp struggled against.
Players like Jordan Rapana, Joey Leilua, Josh Hodgson and Elliot Whitehead had breakout years, and were all key in Canberra’s charge into the top four and the third round of the finals, before being beaten in a thriller by the Melbourne Storm.
So the team from the nation’s capital come into 2017 with a buzz. They seem to have the goods to maybe even win the comp this year.
But given the Raiders’ history of having a great year followed by a terrible one, can they make the eight this year? Or will 2016 be a flash in the pan?
Strengths
This team has the best centre combination in the game. Jarrod Croker is on his way to becoming the highest point scorer in the history of the NRL with his knack for scoring tries and amazing kicking accuracy. He has buckets of speed and playmaking spark that allows him to create opportunities for himself and those around him. If he continues his 2016 form, he will finally get a State of Origin berth.
However, if Joey Leilua doesn’t get his Origin debut this year, then Laurie Daly needs his head examined. Leilua and his wing partner, Rapana, were the best thing since sliced bread last year. I haven’t ever seen an edge partnership dominate the game like these two did, sharing 40 line breaks, 34 tries and 268 tackle breaks. Their speed and power will continue to be unmatched on the edges.
For the first half of 2016, Josh Hodgson was the dummy-half of the year, marking himself as one of the best imports from England in the last decade. The way he manages to get these big Canberra forwards on the front foot is invaluable and his spark from the ruck has the ability to rip a game wide open.
Speaking of these forwards, they look incredibly potent. Shannon Boyd and Junior Paulo are just ridiculously big and powerful, while Clay Priest is a fine workhorse and Joe Tapine has wonderful spark. You know your prop rotation is good when Paul Vaughan can’t break into the side.
Also, if you don’t think this second row is pure quality I don’t know what to say. Iosia Soliola is one of the most underrated forwards in the world, Elliott Whitehead is an English representative player for a good reason, and Josh Papalii – with his ridiculously hard-to-tackle frame and powerful running – causes headaches for opposition in every game he plays.
Weakness
You know, for a side that finished second, their halves didn’t exactly play too well last year. Granted, Hodgson acts like the dominant half in the team, but while Aidan Sezer and Blake Austin weren’t bad, the calm Sezer from the Titans was nowhere to be seen, while injuries meant that we got to witness basically none of the explosiveness that Austin demonstrated in 2015. These two need to step it up for the Raiders to win a premiership.
Jack Wighton is a centre pretending to be a fullback. Usually he plays acceptably at the back but then he has the odd game or two when he just completely turds it up and drops every single ball that comes his way. He made the most errors of any player last year by far and away, with 44. His brain snap in Round 10 lost the Raiders their game against the Dragons and similar performances will prove costly.
But the biggest weakness of this side in 2016 was their defence. While it wasn’t bad (conceding the seventh-fewest points) they are going to have to become a top-four defensive side to win a premiership, and since the Raiders have the squad to aim for the premiership, this needs to be high on the agenda.
Canberra scored the most points of any team last year, with 688, so their defence is the only thing that needs improving.
Summary
This is a great squad. It has taken many years, but it seems like a Ricky Stuart-coached side will do well.
Their spine, outside of Hodgson, need to step it up a little, but I am confident that their halves will (at the very least).
So I predict the Raiders will finish the season coming in second again. From there, they will streak into the grand final and perhaps win it. I can’t decide between them and the other team that will make it into the grand final.
Anything outside of a top four and deep finals run for this team has to be considered a failure. Let’s hope they deliver on their potential.
2016 finish: second
Predicted 2017 finish: second
Transfers
Gains: Jordan Turner, Dunamis Lui, Makahesi Makatoa, Scott Sorensen, Brent Naden, David Taylor
Losses: Lachlan Lewis, Sisa Waqa, Zac Woolford, Sam Williams, Brenko Lee, Paul Vaughan, Edrick Lee, Shaun Fensom
Full-strength team
1. Jack Wighton
2. Nick Cotric
3. Jarrod Croker
4. Joey Leilua
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Blake Austin
7. Aiden Sezer
8. Shannon Boyd
9. Josh Hodgson
10. Junior Paulo
11. Josh Papalii
12. Elliot Whitehead
13. Iosia Soliola
14. Kurt Baptiste
15. Clay Priest
16. Joe Tapine
17. Dave Taylor
Pomoz
Roar Rookie
Good review Keith, hopefully you followed that link I gave you to the NRL Stats leaderboard which is helpful in providing some more in depth stats. In relation to Wighton the seems to have poor positioning or hands, hard to say which (my eyes say hands but I have no data to support that). I say that because he fails to defuse bombs and kicks more than most. Out of the fullbacks, he is the worst at bomb kicks and fifth at not defusing kicks. Mind you, he is 4th and fifth for defusing bombs and kicks. He is obviously getting kicked to by the opposition who see it as a weakness and also follow the link to NRL stats! The error list also reveals an interesting point about the Raiders overall. They have 3 players in the top 20 for errors: Wighton at number 1 and Rapana and Leilua at 11 and 15. Only one other club has 3 players in the top 20 for errors and that is the Roosters. Overall, they are placed equal 4th with the Cowboys for errors. They also concede the second most penalties of any team, just behind the Sharks. If you combine poor discipline and the error rate together you have to do more work in defence and relieve the pressure for other teams. Their defence is a mystery. They have conceded 85 tries, the same as the Panthers in equal 9th position and only two more than the Broncos (who are praised for their defence). But there is only one team that misses fewer tackles and that is the Storm. Eh? The Panthers on the other hand, miss the second most tackles of any team, yet still only concede the same number of tries as the Raiders. Maybe the answer lies in how many players attempt to tackle. Perhaps the Panthers swarm in defence so a few players miss each time but the second and third player always get their man. Maybe the Raiders have poor positioning and don't miss the tackle because they are nowhere to be seen. The Raiders and Panthers are 7th and 8th for number of tackles made (surprise, surprise the Storm are number 1) and made roughly the same amount of tackles. It really makes no sense. Even though they don't miss many tackles, your point is still valid, if they can improve their defence and concede fewer tries, and improve their discipline, they will be a firm favourite for the title. The best thing about the Raiders though is they are enjoyable to watch. They are the antithesis to the Storm with their fast flowing attractive style. The Storm's choking style might be effective at topping tackle counts and stopping tries but it won't sell tickets. It is awful. If they are the channel nine game, I don't bother to watch. I prefer league to wrestling and try and watch that instead.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Guest
You're right about Jack Wighton TB - he had some shockers in the first half of the year but really pulled his game together in the second half and would have been one of the top 5 players in the team in my opinion. He could take his game to a whole new level this year. Austin was busted for much of last season and had little impact so he is almost like a new recruit this year. Hope he can stay injury free for a stretch. Also hoping Sezer can step up and lead the team this year along with Hodgson. Gee that team put together by Keith looks strong on paper - especially when Croker, Taylor, Paulo and Baptiste are added to the team. If they have a weakness they lack a bit in depth - especially after having to unload Fensom and the two Lees- so there is a heavy investment in the form and fitness of the top 17 - but its hard not to be excited about their prospects this year. Just hope the results are on a par with the expectation. The progress of the Raiders is pretty amazing when you consider they finished second last in 2014. Plus they now have 15,600 members which puts them in sixth position on the ladder in terms of membership. Amazing what a bit of success can do.
Magnus M. Østergaard
Roar Guru
The Raiders have a great team and should be looking to push well into the finals again, if not the Premiership. The only doubt I have is that they had a lot of players playing their career best footy last season, can they replicate that? But like you said, there is 3/4 of the spine that need to step up and if they do that will be a massive compliment to those who may suffer a drop off.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Looking forward to Sezer along with Austin going around again. Hopefully they don't both get injured round 1 again. I wonder how many of Wighton's errors were made in the first half of the season versus the second? He seemed to click halfway through the season and played consistently probably for the first time in his career. Gee this is a big year for the Raiders. That team is awesome over the park. Imagine defending and you have Boyd charging at you. Then Paulo. Then Papalii. Then they throw it wide to Leilua and Rapana. Is there anyone in this team that's easy to tackle now Fensom has gone? I'd be super pumped if I were a Raiders fan...