Early days, but surely some teams are already out of the title picture. In fact, it looks to me that only eleven teams are truly in this competition, with three of those (the Reds, the Highlanders, and the Waratahs) hanging on by the skin of their underpants.
First, let’s examine the credentials of the obvious contenders. The Crusaders and the Chiefs are representing each of New Zealand’s islands with aplomb. The Chiefs have scored thirty points a game against quality teams, come hard and low at the ruck, break the line ad nauseam, and are brutal on defence.
They seem to be on some sort of image redemption mission. Nobody really wants to play them.
The Crusaders are winning the best way: ugly. At the death. With cheeky malice. Almost inevitably. Can they improve? Yes! That’s the scary part. They are lineout menaces; with a hard pack and a joy in their rugby. But can they stay healthy, and do they have the depth needed?
Nobody will count the Hurricanes out; with their clever coaches, their slippery ability to play tight or loose and odd way of changing games in little five minute bursts of genius. The loss to their rivals will probably wake them up.
These Kiwi teams seem to stack up:
1. Chiefs
2. Crusaders
3. Hurricanes
From South Africa, the Lions, Stormers and Sharks return as the most likely candidates for surprise glory. The Stormers are throwing flatter passes, dropping fewer 50-50 balls, and scoring more tries (15 so far) and more attractive tries as a result of better-shaped support lines and greater enterprise, particularly from their halves. Their Bok locks are in top form.
The Cape side should get to five wins without a loss, but their acid test comes later, against New Zealand teams.
If anything, the Sharks have looked even more impressive. Had Patrick Lambie’s kick gone over in Brisbane, they would have had a perfect season at this point. They sport a harder-than-teak pack, an aggressive tackle technique, and uncompromising midfielders.
The Lions should be there, too, at the end, but the loss to the Jaguares exposed a few flaws. Also, the chop-and-change at 9 and 10 could be preventing a smooth flow.
I would stack these teams:
1. Sharks
2. Stormers
3. Lions
If I combined them with the Kiwi teams, I’d put them all below the Canes.
The Brumbies are in the mix, but unimpressively (a -1 point differential, the only team with a negative margin in the top eight). The Jaguares look more like a contender.
So, I would rank the top eight as follows:
1. Chiefs
2. Crusaders
3. Hurricanes
4. Sharks
5. Stormers
6. Lions
7. Jaguares
8. Brumbies
As for the three on the bubble?
1. Highlanders
2. Reds
3. Waratahs
What say you, Roarers? Have I gone off too early with my predictions or do I have the upcoming season all worked out?
Harry Jones
Expert
Haha, nice memory. As a Cape boy, always supported EP and Natal against the Escarpment Lads
Tutema
Guest
Still, Bosch (from SA not Arg) showed his willingness to make a name for his own.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Yes it was tongue in cheek...hence the smiley. I'm well aware of what sprinting is and requires and did a bit of track at school but certainly I have seen incredible pace gains from players, mainly loosies that are not typically sprinters in the truest sense through a lot of targeted weight training and high intensity sprint work. Pure line speed becomes irrelevant in rugby when you can turn on the pace when others can't. Rapid recovery can make some players faster than others even though they couldn't beat them over 50. In rugby speed is relevant, not pure.
Timbo (L)
Guest
It is the only way to beat the Sharks, Lions, Stormers and now the Jags. Brumbies and Blues are on that list as well.
Timbo (L)
Guest
I am a biassed Force Supporter, They have got 8 or so guys that are new to super rugby that are already performing well. I recon by mid season, the discipline will have improved and the combo's will work together better. The Perth "Pigs" from the NRC play a bit hard and fast and I predict a few more yellows from them for a while yet. It will lose them more games. Plenty of room for improvement. Tah's players aren't going to get any better, but I am looking forward to them playing a bit better. They seem very rusty, and perhaps a little arrogant. The reds are good at snatching defeat from the Jaws of victory I think they are a better side than the scorelines suggest. Friz has lost his Mojo and it is hurting them badly. Ready needs to be given more minutes on the field to help strengthen the breakdown.
Cynical Play
Guest
I head there was 5 rolled ankles all at once.
AJ
Guest
As a Reds supporter I would hazard to say that they must beat the Lions and/or the Jags to have a chance. Not exactly the easiest road trip. They certainly surprised for 40 mins last week, would need to improve a lot to win both. Maybe a tour might do the trick?
davSA
Guest
I do agree with your predications Harry . The fact that 3 NZ sides are the top 3 is a no brainer. History , form , stability , depth , coaching quality etc. Say it will be so. This ironically is one of the down sides of Superugby ....its relative predictability . What the comp need is a Leicester City outcome where a complete outsider upsets the whole darned applecart. Someone like the Force or the Cheetahs. Will it happen ? Nope I doubt it . Can it happen ? ...Well sport including Rugby is littered with examples . As a youngster The Natal rugby team was languishing in the B div of the Currie Cup , mainly for political reasons ( mostly English speaking team and all that , no Broederbonders on the Management team). Sound familiar , echoes of the past coming back to haunt us ?.. Anyway I'm digressing . They secured a playoff spot by virtue of winning the B div and somehow kept winning through to the final against the Blue Bulls . Well history tells us that they won the Currie Cup with Tony Watson scoring the winning try with a (to paraphrase you ) A thing of beauty . At pace using subtle changes in hip direction he turned the Northern Transvaal defence inside out . The Natal side had just shoved a whole bunch of bananas down the collective throats of then SARFU and cemented themselves as the side I will always support.
Paul
Guest
Of course they will Nicholas as the Lions do not play one single NEW ZEALAND team during the season .. HAHAHAHA
superba
Guest
@Neutral ie fast twitch or slow twitch muscle fibres .
Harry Jones
Expert
It's the "contention" chances
Akari
Roar Rookie
Hey RT - who is and why is Michael Collins playing ahead of Nanai at 15? The bugger can't kick and can't defend and gets lost when he has the ball in hand. What's the story with Kara Pryor?
Animal
Guest
Yuo are way off the mark in my view in rubbishing the highlanders. You should Have a rethink on that one
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
Fair enough Chook ... Blues have such an easy encounter... Crusaders in Christchurch .. I should be able to bank a won in the match huh? .... Err ... didn't say which side though, note! You guys have got the Brumbies and under normal circumstances, I would have thought the Tahs at home would be a leg in (probably still are). But, how they have been playing and returning from a long trip, it might be closer than many think ..
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
Harry is dead right. Speed is all about muscle fibers. Some of us are born with long muscle fibers and they - we - will never ever run 100 meter sub 11 seconds, no matter how much training or steroids or whatever. Some of us are born with short muscle fibers and they can aim for sub 11 seconds time from their late teens almost without practice.
Smiggle Jiggle
Roar Guru
what about the Blues? I think they will win most of their non New Zealand games.
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
Mate, don't get me started on the Blues!
JRVJ
Guest
If I may, the Jags have two reasonably winnable games at home before going back to SA, at which point they would be 4-1. Yes, the Jags have to show they can win on the road consistently, but they will start getting starting players back fairly soon (they already got back Hernández and Ortega-Desio). I really wouldn't be surprised if they end up in the playoffs (the main thing I want to see is how they do against the Aussie sides, as they have never played them, and it's a different style of play than SAffa or Kiwi Rugby).
Baylion
Roar Rookie
Could have turned the match as this happened at 38 minutes. Although the Lions still made too many mistakes, they didn't deserve to win the match
Nobrain
Roar Guru
The irony is that if he had been given a yellow it would have been more fair. The Lions would have played a man advantage. Now the Cheetahs benefit from the suspension. In the other hand if Sanchez had the yellow he would not have been suspended.