2017 AFL preview series: Sydney Swans - 2nd

I reckon Zak Jones is in for an outstanding year. He was great in the Prelim final and one of our best in a disappointing GF. His pre-season form suggests he is in great nick and roaring to go. Watch him take the next step this year for sure. Looking forward to see what Robinson can do this year. He was playing very well up until the bad injury last year that stuffed his season. His pre-season, like Jones, has been very good - got 26 touches in one of the JLT games, and used the ball pretty well. I hope he can take the next step up as well.

Spot on Philthy. Certainly as others have indicated below, it wasn't helped on Grand Final day by some stupid decisions made about carrying players with injuries - in particular, neither Parker nor Mills should have been anywhere near the 22, given the injury everyone knew about with Mills, and the subsequent injury that Parker was carrying. The bottom six is clearly the issue the Swans need to address this year if they are to take the final step - that and get the underperforming big names to stand up when it matters in the big games. Twice in three years too many of them have been disappointing when it mattered.

Didn't you get the Memo Swannies - that sort of talk only should happen after we get over the recent hiccups and win on the big day :P

I think the biggest challenge for our swans ryan, maybe not noted here, is in the coaches box and the sports psychologist rooms. The first have to find a way to tinker the gameplan to overcome those teams where clearly we are going to struggle against (Dogs, GWS are 2 for sure in that category). I think in that space, the loss of Mitchell (assuming Heeney/Mills/Jones can adequately contribute through midfield) may help the cause a little bit. But I've said it for a long time - the Swans struggle when the A gameplan doesn't work - been the same ever since the days of Eade and Roos as coach. The second group have to find a way to get inside the heads of those players that keep underperforming in the biggest games - there are, as Birdman has outlined, some players that clearly should be doing a lot better in those games. At least part of it must be between the ears for mine. In that space, hopefully the move to Joey as captain will help, given he is one that simply takes his game up another notch in the biggest games.

A bit harsh on Hannebrey birdman. He was poor in 2014 (but in the better group of the Swans team on the day - not that there was too much good about them), but was superb in 2012, and pretty good in 2016 as well, up until the infamous injury early in the 4th. As for the others, you can certainly mount an argument that when the going has got tough in '14 and '16, they didn't stand up as you expect. Parker in particular hasn't stepped up in finals as one would hope from a player of his calibre, and McVeigh and Jack as leaders were disappointing in 2014 and 16. As for Tippo - I so want to like the guy, but he hasn't consistently delivered for his pay packet. Granted however in '16 he was looking very good up until his injury mid season, which it took him a long time to recover from. Finally, Rohan - well he is one that I feel the club vastly overrates, on flashes of brilliance alone. Granted I'm happy to give him a lot of leeway because of that original awful injury that did set him back a long way, but he is nowhere near the quality of player that a first rounder with his skills should be by this stage of his career. He has really only ever had one standout finals game - the '14 prelim against the Roos, and was dreadful in both the '14 and '16 grand final. If it wasn't for his manic pressure and speed, I wouldn't have him anywhere near the top 22 if I was coach. But I'm not (and I'm sure that's a good thing!)

Yeh certainly a gaunt looking man compared to his playing days. Saying that, I think part of it was the dreadful lighting the Swans had in an interview with him. Looked much better out on the training track the other day in footage, but still only a shadow size wise of the man we all loved when he played footy.

Buddy Franklin went into the GF with a shoulder injury incurred in the finals round and then hurt his ankle within the first 10 minutes of the match. He was subsequently severely limited in his running ability. This was the single most significant factor in the Swans performing at less than their best.

All clubs now have academies. Outside the northern states these are Next Generation Academies (NGAs) which aim to develop multicultural and indigenous players. Some of these academies are sure to bring forward exciting talent. In fact Hawthorn already have ruck prospect Tony Olango in their NGA. And as the rules stand (from today) clubs will have more favourable draft rules from the NGAs than the northern academies face. Are the opponents of the northern academies going to be consistent and argue against their clubs being able to draft NGA talent under the discount etc. rules?

Swans look even better in 2017 and look certainties to play in this year's grand final and make amends for last year. We all look forward to seeing Buddy win a premiership this year...he really deserves it more than anyone. I think Longmire can win another 2 or 3 flags for the mighty Swans. The best coach in the business! My prediction is Swans to win back to back premierships in 2017-18.

Hannebery missed virtually an entire quarter due to injury and Parker went into the game with the same injury he acquired in the preliminary final a week earlier. You could clearly see Parker's movement was limited. As for the game earlier in the season, the Swans should have won that game. We were woeful in front of goal and with our efficiency inside 50, and would have won if it weren't for a weak defensive moment when the Bulldogs scored one of the easiest goals of the game on the final siren. So Bulldogs got kind of lucky in that game.

Indeed, I think I've got you.

Effectively, Sydney used Bird + their first (14) and second (33) round picks to trade up to Mills at Pick 3. Sydney held Bird, Pick 14 and Pick 33. The first trade was Bird & Pick 14 for Pick 23 and Pick 44 (with Essendon) Then they used Pick 23 to trade for Pick 36 & Pick 37 (with West Coast) That left Sydney with Picks 33, 36, 37 & 44. Mills was bid on at Pick 3 by Melbourne, which Sydney had the assets to match using the portfolio above given the academy club gets a 20% discount on the bid figure. I don't see what's wrong with this prima facie. The Swans dealt their way into their position. They didn't get handed Mills for nothing.

Sydney's issue both times they played the Bulldogs was the players ranked 15-22 in the team and their contribution or lack thereof. During the home and away game in Sydney, their big guns fired (Kennedy, Hannebery, Parker, Franklin and Jack) and they lost. The same happened (save for Franklin) in the GF. They can't blame inexperience because the Bulldogs players ranked 15-22 on the team have just as little experience and still had an impact in those games.

I agree. We've gone into two grand finals as red-hot favourites for a reason. Most people really rated us, so there's obviously a reason for that. One game in which many of the Swans players were blatantly poor or below their usual standard suddenly changes everyones mind? Fickle bunch these experts are.

Perspective is important. Going into both the 2014 and 2016 grand finals, we were pretty hot favourites, and rightfully so. Both years we had a pretty even team. Everyone contributed, including the likes of Rohan etc. We had good depth, and had everything required to beat both the Hawks and the Bulldogs. We choked in both games, plain and simple. On both days we faced an opposition who just had more players playing well than we did. It's our fault, and it's their credit. It's easy to come out the other side on the back of a loss and blame lack of depth, being too Buddy-reliant, game-plan etc. when you lose a grand final, but the truth of the matter is that everything was completely fine going into both grand finals. Lack of depth, Buddy-dependance and game-plan did not cost us either grand finals. Even star players like Hannebery, Parker, Jack, McVeigh etc. had ordinary days that just weren't good enough. That is why I am confident going into 2017. We've proven that if we have a full 22-man contribution, we're probably the best team in the competition. It also has nothing to do with coaching, in my opinion. We don't fall to bits whenever the game isn't on our terms, nor do we struggle to find multiple ways of winning. Last year was a prime example. We played some dominant show-boating footy, but we also had tough defensive games, low-scoring rain-soaked affairs, and high-scoring attacking games. Over the past four years, only Hawthorn have proven themselves better at winning in any given situation regardless of whether the game suits them or not. I think people just read into the grand final losses too much. The fact is, some of our best players did not perform up to their usual standard. That really is the crux of it. When that happens, you're never going to win a grand final. But we still have everything required to go again. Our forward line is currently injury-depleted, with the absences of Rohan, Papley, Heeney, X. Richards and McGlynn from last year. But once we get some of those blokes back, we'll have Buddy roaming the 50m arc, Reid playing as more of an up-the-ground lead-up option (we work pretty effectively when he and Buddy collaborate), Tippett will be deeper inside 50, but still play some ruck-time. Naismith will be the lead ruck, though. If we're against taller forward lines, such as St Kilda, Geelong or GWS, I would expect to see Darcy Cameron playing full forward too. He could very well be a Tony Lockett replica if he can just stand in the goal-square and pluck marks. May not happen immediately as it's his first season, but if we can mould him into that role, it'd be just what we're lacking, since both Tippett and Buddy aren't great in marking contests. Our midfield is still the best in the competition in terms of quality, but we're far behind others (like Bulldogs, GWS) in terms of quantity. You couldn't ask for four better gun mids in the one team than Kennedy, Hannebery, Parker and Jack. But after those four blokes, it drops away rather significantly. Mitchell leaving makes things worse, but it does not spell disaster. Hopefully Heeney's glandular fever won't hinder his ability to return as a full-time mid, because I was really looking forward to 2017 becoming the year he became not just a permanent midfielder, but one of the best midfielders in the competition. He provides us with that spark in the middle that we currently only get from Parker's class. Zak Jones is who I'm pegging my hopes on this year. He's got great pace, meaning he can break those lines, great skills which means he can improve our forward forays with more efficiency, and also a bit of mongrel in him, meaning he wouldn't go astray right in the contests like Kennedy and Parker. Lloyd has also proven to have continued his gradual improvement, and he's now a pretty important part of our outside link-ups, even if he's a flawed flanker. Then there's blokes like Hewett and Robinson, who aren't ball magnets, but have enough class to gain 20 or so possessions, and make most of them count. To win a premiership, it's better to have a dozen or so blokes getting 20-25 touches and them all being good ones than just three or four of the same guys getting over 30, and then everyone else dropping away. This is the one area I believe John Longmire could improve the Swans, but he's also trying to juggle easing the kids into senior footy by playing them in various positions (Mills on the half-back, Heeney as a half-forward, Hewett as a small forward, Jones as a half-back flanker etc.) so I can understand why he's struggled to build a large midfield group. Our defence is self-explanatory. I suspect we'll be as difficult as ever to score against, perhaps even more difficult now that our relatively young back-line of Marsh, Aliir and Mills will have another year under their belts and should have improved. Our depth is also pretty good, with blokes like Laidler, Melican and Talia playing in our reserves. Of course, we'd still be pretty stuffed if our two anchors in Grundy and Rampe went down, but take away the two best defenders out of any team and they wouldn't be as dangerous. BEST 22: Smith - Grundy - Marsh (potentially Melican) Rampe - Aliir - Mills (can swap with Jones) Heeney - Parker - Jones (can swap with Mills) Naismith - Kennedy - Hannebery K. Jack - Franklin - Reid Rohan - Tippett - Papley Hewett - Robinson - Lloyd - McVeigh Which means Florent, Towers, Laidler, Cunningham and Sinclair are the guys capable of playing senior footy who miss out for me. IMO, the last four just aren't up to it though to be considered above any of the guys I've listed in the team. As for Florent, he's playing this week almost certainly, so we'll see how he goes. If he impresses, and his attributes like his pace and class shine through, he should keep McVeigh out the team. The game's just gone past the champion unfortunately.

"Or will the Swans lower end once again be found out on the big stage, with the big names unable to carry them over the line?" is it just me or have many of their big names gone missing at the 'pointest' end - McVeigh, Jack, Hannerbry, Tippett, Rohan and Parker have all misfired in a couple of grannies IIRC.

"the slimline Tony Lockett" yeah I have noticed that too. He is literally half the man he used to be!

weird I've never seen anyone who argues in good faith talk about straw men.

To counter the point other clubs don't have access to him. If you can't get a star player through the draft you pinch them from other clubs by offering the player more money than what their current club can offer. North offered more money than the Swans, but he elected to stay in Sydney. There is not a whole lot the Swans could have done if Heeney had decided to leave. Either they play hardball and risk losing Heeney for nothing or accept what they can get from North. No club has a lock on any one player for the length of their career.

Sorry but I am over straw man arguments so you're on your own with that.