Before Super Rugby kicked off, predictions were made and justifications put forward to back up said predictions.
Of most sides, and particularly the Australian sides, I made references to the first five rounds being the sample size to determine how good or otherwise each side is going.
But four rounds now behind us, I don’t really think we need to wait another week. It’s pretty obvious that some predictions are well off already, and therefore, we can already put the line through some teams.
So, to recap…
After a first glance at all the squads back in mid-February, I put these guestimations forward:
Conference guesses
AFRICA 1: Bulls, Stormers, Sunwolves, Cheetahs
AFRICA 2: Lions, Jaguares, Sharks, Kings
NEW ZEALAND: Hurricanes, Highlanders, Chiefs, Crusaders, Blues
AUSTRALIA: Reds, Waratahs, Rebels, Brumbies, Force
Africa 1
It already looks like it’s the Stormers’ conference to lose. We still won’t know about them properly until they tour New Zealand, but they’ve started the season better than I expected and the off-season consolidation has worked very well.
The Bulls on the other hand, have been underwhelming and I think they’re in for a hard time in New Zealand starting this weekend coming. They’ve been very hot and cold and Handre Pollard, even coming back from serious injury, has been the poster boy for their consistent inconsistency.
The Cheetahs are having more moments than I thought they would, but it’s the opposite for the Sunwolves. The Cheetahs are a big chance of knocking off the Sharks this weekend, but I’m really not sure when the Moondogs’ first win will come.
Africa 2
It’s pleasantly surprising to see how tight this conference already is. After four rounds, the Jaguares, Lions, and Sharks all have three wins, and are separated by just one competition point, and 17 points for-and-against. I’m still happy with the finishing order I put forward, but it’s going to be a whole lot tighter than appeared would be the case six weeks ago.
The Lions will give the competition a very good shake this season. They won’t go through unbeaten from here, but there’s also not that many games that jump out as games they will definitely lose. In the Force-Rebels-Brumbies, they’ve got very favourable Australian tour, and a top two finish looks very, very likely.
The Jaguares and the Sharks will battle out for second in this conference, but the Jaguares look well ahead already. On two games’ evidence, I’m not sure who can beat them at home, and they’re good enough to win games on tour as well – if they can hold their discipline. The Sharks look a bit too Patrick Lambie-dependent suddenly, and none of the concerns I had about them pre-season have been resolved.
The Kings won’t get anywhere near the playoffs, that’s no surprise, but they are definitely a better team than I suspect most of us thought would be the case. They’ve effectively started from scratch, but have stumbled upon a team of hard-working, honest toilers. And a sharp-shooting goal-kicker in former Shark and Jake White Brumby, Lionel Cronje! I think they’ll get a big scalp somewhere in the next month.
New Zealand
Even knowing what I know now, there probably isn’t much to change about the New Zealand prediction. I’d swap the Crusaders and the Highlanders, but the rest would stay as is. And that might be rough on the Chiefs, keeping them at third, but they haven’t quite shaken that feeling I have that the bubble will burst at some point.
The Crusaders, too, have started a whole lot better then I expected, but on reflection it’s not that surprising at all. For years now the Crusaders have lost players, pulled the lever, cranked the wheel in the factory, and out pops yet another ready-made replacement.
The Highlanders look vulnerable at the moment, and the worry with them will be that if they lose too many more games, they won’t be able to make up the lost ground. They’ve had a shocking start to the season injury-wise, and I’m not sure they’ve got the depth as the teams above them in the conference.
And the Hurricanes and Blues will finish where I had them from the start. The Blues are a better side than last year, and worryingly, so are the Hurricanes, but where the Hurricanes already look well-drilled and well-oiled, the Blues look their very up-and-down best (or worst, depending on your perspective).
Australia
If there’s one thing in the Australian conference I’m pleased about, it’s that it is going to be as tight in 2017 as I thought it might be. And I’m actually more pleased for the fact that the two teams playing the best rugby so far are the teams I had finishing fourth and fifth.
I didn’t think the Brumbies would get anywhere near finishing as conference champion, but that now looks very real. If they can keep showing the weekly glimpse of improved attack as they have across four games, then they’d deserve to be part of the playoff discussions.
And I’m confident the Force won’t finish fifth in the conference now. To be fair, I wrote at the time that I thought it was harsh ranking them at fifth, and I’m pleased that’s proved to be the case already. There’s a lot to like about the Force, and this mini-tour of New Zealand is a really good challenge. Ryan Louwrens and Jonno Lance have started well in the halves, the pack is working well despite some injuries, and Curtis Rona and Chance Peni already present biggest right-edge defence in Australia.
The Reds were terrible in Johannesburg, there’s no doubt about that, but that doesn’t erase the good showings in the matches before the Ellis Park thumping. How they now cope without Quade Cooper and James Slipper will be the big test for the young blokes, but if they embrace the challenge and not shy away from it, there’s plenty of time to set up a successful season.
There’s plenty of time for the Waratahs too, and they should be able to do just that with the talent available. But they’ve looked flat for most of the opening month, to the point where I’m not even sure if they can beat the Rebels in Melbourne on Friday night, especially if Bernard Foley remains in the ‘civvies’.
A team that strong shouldn’t be fourth in the conference, and it will be interesting to see if Darryl Gibson follows through with his threat to swing the axe this week. I wonder if it will extend to some big names?
And that just leaves the Rebels. I can’t really work why a team in which a large chunk of players who have been together now for several years can be playing like they just met in February, and nor am I sure that they’re capable of making the improvements they so desperately need.
So to finish this exercise, I’ll say this: the Rebels will not finish anywhere near the playoffs this season as I hoped they might.
And though I absolutely look forward to them proving me wrong, it’s worth noting that after three games this season, the Rebels have a larger negative points differential and have scored fewer while conceding more tries than the Kings had managed this time last season.
And they were playing their first games together.
Akari
Roar Rookie
I was hoping the Tahs would be after a tough SA tour without Foley and other key players. It looks like Jake Gordon is a find and I see that he has made the 15 with Phipps as a sub. The 'doom and gloom' stories has allowed the Bumblebees to sneak under the radar and it looks like (this early anyway) and it's a great feeling to be numero uno. I don't get the demotion of Folau to 15 and likewise with Kellaway being moved to the left wing. Good luck on the weekend as you will need it as the backline is likely to leak points.
peter m
Guest
Waratahs have serious issues. Experience, but no passion and not enough talent. Of the experienced players only Hooper, Folau, Foley and Kepu could be looked up to. The other experienced players are simply not good enough. Signing experienced players to extended contracts, when they are not good enough to cut it anymore, shows an inherent weakness throughout the organisation. They should have first say on the majority of good young players coming through. They should be doing much better.
Harry Jones
Expert
On the other hand, the Stormers beat the Jaguares. And I think the Sharks, whilst looking physical, may not have the point-scoring chops of the Joburg and Cape Town teams.
Charging Rhino
Roar Guru
Hey guys, just want to put this out here. Lots of Aussies and Kiwis have cried "unfair" with the current Super Rugby format, yet 4 Kiwi teams deservingly made the playoffs last year. On the SA conference side it's a different story and also rather unfair (despite public Roar opinion) as it appears likely that the 3 best teams in the west in 2017 are all in the same conference! The Lions, Sharks and Jaguares. One of these teams are unfortunately going to miss out, potentially two of them. Sharks beat the Stormers and Bulls last year, only lost to the Lions in inter SA conference matches while all the NZ games were exceptionally close and they won two of them. This year will be the same imo, and I think they're looking better than last year, just had an off day this past Saturday. Sharks have already beaten the Tahs & Brumbies, will beat the Rebels & Force, imo will beat Stormers & Bulls, yet may miss out while an Aussie and SA Conference 1 team goes through? Teams that they (or the Lions or Jaguares) have beaten? A bit ridiculous really. We'll have to wait and see what happens, but remember only 3 teams can go through, and a maximum 2 from one SA conference regardless of log points or merit. Whereas on the other side 5 teams go through regardless, and NZ had 4 in there on merit. Food for thought. Don't know why Kiwis moaned last year as 4 out of 5 teams went through all on merit! Hosting rights is a different debate altogether and teams with higher wins/points should host playoff games.
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Hang in there buddy!
Tez
Guest
Without looking too deeply into who plays whom where .... IMHO the form teams are Lions, Hurricanes, Stormers, Chiefs ..... closely followed by the Crusaders and Jaguares. My picks at this early stage for the playoffs are .... Lions Hurricanes Brumbies Stormers Jaguares Chiefs Sharks and toss multiple coins for the last position and I would not rule out the Cheetahs
Cooper
Guest
I agree on the Jags making the finals along with the Lions largely because of not touring NZ. Hard to say where the Stormers will be end up until they finish their NZ leg. I think the winner of Africa 2 conference will go a long way to wining the comp due to the travel component.
Marius Ciliers
Roar Guru
have been watching silently on the sidelines..watching...waiting..judging.. And I have tried to pin the underlying current that has been tormenting and beguiling false securities in Super Rugby teams for a while now. I don't believe I have it pegged yet,and perhaps never will. Geoff wrote a brilliant article on the Wrap,making very valid points and observations. Jaguares: Had the Acid Fire test last year. And there is little other dramas to hold back. I expect a consistant performance coming from the camp all year Not spectacular.Just consistant.And not a title contender. Lions: Sa politics.Ackerman's talks of leaving. They have the rub of the green as far as fixtures go.Well equiped to make the Finals,lets hope they dont pull a Stormers like last year..I doubt it. Stormers:Sa Politics,Finances...and being Stormers..;) Also well placed..until they tour..they have a nack of croaking when it counts..little to no BGM..aka Big Game Mentality and spill the pill when it counts.Hopefully that changes..i doubt it. Bulls: There is a reason I abandoned them in 2012.. SA Politics,coaches,mentality,coaching,lack of leadership from players to coach.lackadaisical.. Wont amount to much,be the thorn that hinders but not stop others. Cheetas:Sa Politics,players poached by the Bulls and other franchise for years.Management,mindset etc.Prob should be cut. Chicken fodder and bonus points for everyone.. If they played with the enthusiasm and guts and heart as even half the Kings team.They may actualy win a few games.. Kings:Brutal Sa Politcs,cheaky watson..hopefully finaly gone..possibilty of being cut.. I loved the guts of this team,they have heart,passion and desire to play the game.Yup.Getting little to nothing cash wise...why are they still playing.. I enjoy them very much. And had they started without a cheeky saga or sa polics saga or the endless other sagas...they may have been the preverbial thorn in everyones sides. Still not contenders. Rebels:Mindset,mindset,mindset..lack of leadership and situational awareness. Could be cut. Not title contenders,hopefully sinks the Tahs this weekend..lol. Tahs:1 Half of Wallaby backbone..asks why wallabies are in turmoil..Have good players,not all justified in actualy starting for the Wallas.. Will peak mid season when they wake up...seeing hoopers face in my head going:err..we should prob play right..tucking head down and going manicly like a premordial beast at the opposition,aimlessly with no plan and winning with pure overwhelming force.. Not title contenders,but likely converence runners up..will lose against the rebels this weekend..lol. Brumbies: Drama,miss management,more drama,mindset,insecurities,fear off being cut.. Handled themselves pretty well considering the drama this team has went through the past few years. 2nd half of wallaby team..and they have a lot of starters I would put on field in a Walla team.. Hate to love them. Will make the play offs. And who knows..just too many other teams that are betwr. Keep it up Ponies. Reds: .....I plead the 5th..as I have found anything and everything thats said will be used against u.. And thats my point..the Auz mentality has unilateraly shifted from Brumbs and Tahs and merged in one place..hopefully now the tahs get a grip and the brumbs finish strong.. Take it as u will. Mentality mentality mentality Force:I feel for them.All likelyhood will be cut and the drama finaly ends..its sad. Not contenders. May win a few. Take a scalp. But thats it. Nz teams .. Not much to say. Blues deserve beter..have them start in Africa 1 or 2.. Get them to the play offs and we will see what they can do when it realy counts.
Harry Jones
Expert
Good one, McK. The way I see it is 8 teams are competing for the throne. All have had at least one poor game; but some have found a way to win. Some are improving. Gonna be good season
Machooka
Roar Guru
Hey you donkey lover... congrats on ya victory. Thoroughly deserved. We were crap :) Gotta say I'm getting really annoyed with all the 'doom and gloom' SR & Aussie rugby, in general, stories that are suddenly appearing. I mean a bus can only hold so many right!?!
moaman
Guest
How would you possibly know if you never read them?
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Joking Jock, I love you. Never change. At least you tell it how you see it rather than couching your words with an 'everything's fine'. What I'd do to see you have a discussion with Maroon Kev about rugby while drunk in a bar.
WQ
Guest
I hope so Akari, I'm starting to lose the faith.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Brett, I might not always agree with you on the state of Australian rugby, but your capacity to remain cautiously optimistic in the face of such depressing results is a trait (skill?) I wish I possessed. Good article, hope you're right about the Lions topping Africa 2, but they'll have some stiff competition the way that the Jaguares are playing - two really exciting teams that make the competition better to watch. I hope that they both make the finals.
cuw
Guest
it is interesting to see the Crusaders playing very much like Canterbury and grabbing wins at the death. the young and old have all stepped up .
cuw
Guest
the most plausible reason for Japan being taken into the super teams and being retained as far as i can think is becoz of the world cup. else imo it was a rubbish decision, considering the distances involved and the way they have played in Singapore or HongKong just to reduce travel. why would u get an almost national team and then not play in their home country??? the only country atm that can consistently feed 5 teams and sustain the demand for 45 players a season is NZ. though saffers have players , most of their good ones go to Europe so they too can only manage 4 good teams. Aussy never had enuf players to have 5 good teams.
Akari
Roar Rookie
Thanks Brett and I largely agree. The Brumbies has risen to the occasion and I am happy with where they are at and that is all that matters really. The hard yakka they've had to endure thus far is great for the team IMO unlike their easy wins at the start of super rugby last year. They now know that there is more hard work to do and I am liking the attitude of the team. Fardy and Carter must be a shoo-in for the WBs on current performance.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
If the Lions top the whole thing then perhaps they might be able to win it this year with a home final.
Redsfan1
Guest
Brett, did you actually keep a straight face when writing about the Australian Conference? Reminds me of Hitler saying that the war coukd still be won from his bunker in 1945...
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Jock, you predicted the Tahs would beat the Reds by 30. The Tahs couldn't beat a team of no one but Donald Ducks or even Dean Mumms and Nick Phippss, let alone by 30. Talking about keeping their head in the sand.