Nathan Lyon looked tame in the third Test without the footmarks created by injured left-arm quick Mitchell Starc. Now Australia must decide whether they would be better off picking a different bowler for the decider.
Such a decision will be heavily influenced by how the Australians read the pitch at Dharamsala, which has shaped as the venue which would most favour fast bowlers thanks to its high altitude and cool climate.
Sitting more than 1300m above sea level, in the foothills of the Himalayas, the Himachal Pradesh Cricket Stadium will be easily the coldest of the venues in this series, with maximum temperatures forecast of between 22 and 26 degrees Celsius.
Such conditions would lead one to assume the pitch for the fourth Test will not be as dry as those for the first three, each of which were played in cities which were significantly hotter and lower in altitude.
Then again, it’s been incredibly difficult to predict how the last two pitches would play.
The second Test at Bangalore was tipped to brim with runs but turned out to be a nightmare for batsmen. Then the Ranchi deck initially looked like something ripped from a spinner’s wet dreams, only to be utterly placid.
If Australia were going to play three frontline quicks at any point in this series, it always looked by far the most likely to occur at Dharamsala.
Lyon’s toothless effort at Ranchi will have given the selectors further reason to consider such a line-up.
The veteran off-spinner bowled wonderfully in the first three innings of this series, snaring 13 wickets at an average of 10, including an extraordinary haul of 8-50 in the first dig at Bangalore. Since then however, Lyon has been completely blanketed by the Indian batsmen, taking 1-245 from 79 overs.
He was especially impotent in the third Test because he could no longer earn sharp spin and bounce out of the footmarks created by Starc. With no left-arm quicks to be involved in the fourth Test, Lyon again will again be without rough to aim at.
India’s entirely right-handed top eight looked utterly at ease against Lyon in Ranchi. The absence of Starc also dulled the influence of star Indian off spinner Ravi Ashwin, who too found minimal turn or bounce.
It was no coincidence that by far the most successful spinner in that Test was Ravi Jadeja, the only one who had rough he could aim at. Jadeja grabbed nine wickets at Ranchi, compared to only six combined for Lyon, O’Keefe and Ashwin.
If Australia do consider dropping Lyon they have a pace option in lanky swing bowler Jackson Bird, and two spin alternatives in left armer Ashton Agar and leg-spinner Mitchell Swepson. Neither of those young tweakers looks particularly appealing: Agar because he is too similar to O’Keefe, and Swepson because it would be a risk to blood such a green player in a Test of this magnitude.
If the Dharamsala pitch does look like offering significantly more assistance to the quicks, then Bird would shape as the best and also safest option. Unlike the inexperienced Agar and Swepson, Bird is relatively proven, owning a very good record of 34 wickets at an average of 27 from eight Tests.
Bird is, however, yet to play a Test in Asia. There’s also the downside that he is similar in style to Josh Hazlewood, so Australia could lack variety if the Dharamsala pitch turns out to be flat. I don’t think it will be a sleepy deck though, because India must win the fourth Test to regain the Border-Gavaskar Trophy so they surely will be asking for a lively pitch to ensure a result.
Were Australia to play Bird in place of Lyon they still would have a decent off-spin option in all-rounder Glenn Maxwell, who has a good Test record in India, with seven wickets at 29 from his three Tests. Of course, the problem is that captain Steve Smith for some strange reason is averse to bowling Maxwell in any format of cricket.
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Lyon is not the only Australian player whose position deserves to be under threat at Dharamsala.
Opener David Warner has had an awful series, continuing his woeful form away from home, and gloveman Matthew Wade is lucky there is not a second specialist wicketkeeper in the squad.
Warner has now averaged just 22 across his past three away series (in India, Sri Lanka and New Zealand). The only thing which seems likely to save his place is the apparent lack of confidence the selectors have in backup batsman Usman Khawaja’s ability to play spin on the subcontinent.
First Khawaja was overlooked in favour of Shaun Marsh and Mitch Marsh, then when the younger Marsh was injured Australia ignored the left-hander and instead picked Maxwell.
Warner actually deserves to be dropped more than does Lyon. But I would bet the off spinner is more vulnerable ahead of the fourth Test, with Bird a strong chance of a call up.
Armchair Expert
Guest
I recall Stuart got a bad foot injury after the hat trick and struggled at state level.
Jrod
Guest
Lyon had one good innings don't spare him his awful second innings which lost us the test. Tests won from spinners SOK 1 LYON 0
John Erichsen
Roar Guru
qwetzen
Guest
I'm with you Nudge. All India need to tweak from their normal 'Bat Big and win it on D5' blueprint is to score faster. Pujara's innings was great in many aspects but essentially he batted too slowly for too long. If Oz had to bat another hour on D5, well, there wasn't much left in the shed.
qwetzen
Guest
Nudge said: "Plus he [Warner] has a real presence on the field." Especially at leg-slip....
qwetzen
Guest
jamesb said: "Now, who would you replace David Warner in the test side?" Stoinis. He can bowl a bit, bats #3 for the Dics & is a RHB.
qwetzen
Guest
"The amazing thing for me is how quickly he disappeared from the first class scene after getting dropped from test cricket" He was dropped in Dec 2008 after recording 1/204 in the Perth Test but continued to represent Tassie every season until a 4 game average of 73.4 in 2012/13 saw the game rid of him. I had to look up the deets but I knew that he didn't fade away quickly as in every one of those post-Test seasons Mark Waugh would urge the selectors to recall him.
qwetzen
Guest
Graham, If Smith won't bowl a part-time spinner why would he bowl a part-time medium?
qwetzen
Guest
El Loco said: "Lyon’s career is like a really dull roller-coaster. Mild ups and downs, the very occasional thrill." Aside from the "very occasional thrill" that sounds exactly like a bus trip in Adelaide.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
To be fair though, Don, that's because he's only played the one match this season. The Vic's have preferred to select Holland and really only played one match where they went for the second spinner and picked him. Certainly, him not even being able to get a game at Shield level well and truly ruled him out of test contention, but I'm not sure a legspinner really is the right thing for India anyway. Sure, Warne really pushed Swepson, he wants to see a leggie in there, really believes you get more from a leggie, but then Warne himself didn't have a great record in India either. Most of the better bowlers out of India have been finger spinners. Kumble was an exception to that, but he was far from a normal leggie, bowling much faster through the air rather than putting lots of revs on the ball. Almost like a medium pacer bowling with some spin. Maybe that's the trick on slow wickets as a wrist spinner, need to bowl a lot quicker to get the ball to come through, otherwise it's just too slow off the pitch.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
That's probably why he's managed to get selected for 66 tests!
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Krejza's issue was he went for way too many runs. He couldn't tie batsmen down at all. A lot of those wickets in his first test were picked up as the bottom half of the Indian lineup tried to smash him for quick runs at the end. He was 3-200 from 39-odd overs prior to that. He played 2 tests, one of which included picking up 12 wickets, and yet still averaged over 43 across those matches with an economy of over 4.5. The amazing thing for me is how quickly he disappeared from the first class scene after getting dropped from test cricket. He's still only 34 now, which is an age where spinners are often still pretty much in their prime, but hasn't been seen for years. Where he looked like someone who just needed to work on getting better control so he could try and exert more pressure, but was someone who gave it a big tweak, and there was the feeling that he could work on his bowling and we seen in Aussie colours again, but he just faded away quite quickly.
Abdul jabbar
Guest
Smith is captaining Australia, and he is responsible for what occurred on the field and every thing that happened in the test match. The viewer and commentators are only mouth whatevercomes to their mind they spouts it on media.
tim
Guest
Jason Krezja was dropped two tests after taking an 8fer, Jason Gillespie immediately after a double ton, Anthony Stuart after an ODI 5fer that included a hat-trick. Only Krezja was ever selected again, and that was only for the world cup years later when every other spinner in the country, including at park level, got injured. There is little sentiment in Australian cricket.
Don Freo
Guest
Fawad has taken only 5 wickets in the Shield season. He is a chance only in your imagination, mrrexdog.
Don Freo
Guest
He doesn't get reverse.
Don Freo
Guest
Bird is never threatening when the shine goes off the ball. His was a strange selection.
Don Freo
Guest
No, Qwetzen. It is 80% of 603...or whatever India might have scored if Garry didn't get them out.
Don Freo
Guest
Did you read Rock numbers above, Chris? Got a comment on that? They have both been ok most of the time and great at others. Oz is cleaning up. If Garry's spinning finger stops him spinning it, there's a problem that Agar, Swepson or Stoinis...maybe Bird...can fix. If Maxi had 77 overs, I suspect he'd have good figures. We know SOK doesn't have a callus because he doesn't have a spinning finger. His slow/mediums are doing OK though. Oz is looking good for the 4th Test.
Steele
Guest
Its a strike rate thing, two line and length bowlers on a road spells disaster.