Western Bulldogs vs Sydney: Friday Night Forecast

The grand final rematch. Surely that’s enough to whet your appetite for this week’s Friday night football throwdown? No? Step right this way.

We voted on the game of the year late in 2016 – okay, I voted – and came to the conclusion that the last game of the season, between the Western Bulldogs and Sydney Swans, was the third best.

It was close to the ultimate game of football, a collection of individual moments stitched together to form a grander narrative. The Dogs won their first flag in 62 years; the Swans lost their second in three.

The season is just one round old, but already the stakes feel high. Sydney travel to Etihad Stadium, the hunting ground of these Dogs, on the back of a surprising loss to Port Adelaide.

Footscray’s single-game form line isn’t the strongest, either, beating the Pies by 14 points, which was pretty well closing line on the game at major betting agencies.

Under the hood, Collingwood played the Dogs right up to their limit. The Pies won the territory battle: 61 inside 50s to 44, and held the ball for a little longer than their opponents. The Dogs had 67 per cent of their touches in their defensive half, with Collingwood able to press up well and clamp plenty of counterpunches.

Ultimately, the Pies were unable to take advantage of their fairly decisive victory through the middle of the ground.

That, plus the positive impact of a renovated forward line. We’re one round in, but it was clear the Dogs’ attacking set was more potent – and conventional.

Travis Cloke was the steady hand, Jake Stringer provided the spark, Stewart Crameri was back on the flank, and Liam Picken reprised his performance as the tweener role that’s so on trend across the league. It looked, dare I say, normal.

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Still, the Scrays had ten goal-kickers and two other players who hit the scoreboard. None of them were named Tom Boyd, who played in the ruck, but one of them was Matthew Boyd, who had 18 of his 26 touches in the back half of the ground.

Yep, this was a normal Footscray performance, although one which looked more in keeping with their relatively high-scoring ways from the year before last.

They will face a stern test against the most miserly defensive machine of 2016, albeit without one of its most important cogs. According to reports, Sydney were off their game against the Power, and can be expected to approach Round 2 with the intent that should have been there from minute one.

The Swans are missing a handful of important players due to injury, headlined by Isaac Heeney but including Jarrad McVeigh, Tom Papley and Gary Rohan. Dane Rampe joined the list this week, the result of an out-of-game arm injury that was actually an accident and not a confection.

With Xavier Richards and Ben McGlynn no longer on the list, more than a quarter of Sydney’s grand final side is not available for selection. It is hardly ideal, particularly given many of the players who aren’t on deck add pace for the Swans.

In their stead, Sydney turned to a range of players with less than an AFL season worth of on-field experience. They will do so once again against the Dogs.

Tactically, both teams have a pacey disposition, and last season preferred to handball more than the AFL average. Sydney began their transition to a fast, ground-and-pound team in 2015, and were able to burn their way through most of the competition. The Swans love to keep the game open, exiting stoppages sideways and using the breadth of the field to pinball their way up the ground.

Sydney have a bias for attack, relying on their back six and well-honed defensive structures to stop the opposition from scoring. They are one of the best teams in the competition at defending deep entries. The Dogs went deep plenty last weekend, and have shown a tendency to attack the most efficient spot on the ground to score from: 30 metres out and in front of the goal posts. It looms as a real arm wrestle.

By contrast, the Dogs prefer to keep the ball in tight. They’re capable of the pace and space game, but that can expose the lesser quality kickers in the team. At last week’s post-game press conference, Luke Beveridge remarked that the Dogs had tried a few different things that he felt improved their outside game, but that sacrificed their inside dominance.

This could have been a reference to the Dogs’ short kicking as a mode of moving the ball, rather than the swarming handball that were default last season. I also noted a greater tendency to skip the centre square and move the ball with long kicks to stay-at-home forwards. We’ll track this closely tonight.

Like last week, the Swans can comfortably claim to have the majority of the ten best players on the ground. But given the injury issues at Sydney, the Dogs have the Swans well covered for depth.

With both sides playing a full 22 games with a priority on quick ball movement, depth could be what gets the job done.

This has arguably been the case for the Dogs in the most recent meetings between the two teams. Prior to the grand final, the Western Bulldogs had beaten Sydney in Sydney twice in a row, in two low-scoring encounters affected by bad weather.

Then again, the Dogs midfield was comfortably accounted for by Collingwood last week, and Sydney’s midfield is structured similarly: big-bodied ruckman, high-class midfielders with defined strengths and a depth of quality.

The difference between the Pies and Swans is Sydney have forward and back lines able extract points from a midfield win. The Dogs have bought back Tom Campbell back this week rather than playing Tom Boyd as the primary ruckman, but I doubt that was the difference last week.

Sydney have also played Etihad Stadium extremely well in recent years. Their four games over the past two years have yielded scores of 146, 131, 135 and 91, albeit against a meagre set of opponents (the Saints twice, and Blues and Roos once each).

There are so many variables at play. The Dogs are improved up forward, but their midfield performance last week left plenty to be desired.

The Swans play Etihad well, but are missing some critical pieces of their best 22. History shows these two teams play close games. It’s the grand final rematch, and the Dogs will be unfurling their first premiership flag in six decades. It’s the recipe for a delicious game of football.

Another overlay is selection news. The Swans have made three changes to their team last weekend, with three debutants taking the place of Rampe, newly-injured youngster Dean Robinson, and serial error-maker Dean Towers.

The Dogs are relatively settled by contrast, with Dale Morris missing with a leg injury and Toby McLean omitted. They have gone taller, bringing in Marcus Adams and the aforementioned Campbell.

The pick? It’s hard to go past this particular home team on this particular home deck, but on this occasion I’m going against that logic.

Sydney’s playing stocks are depleted, but still run deep enough in the right places to trouble Footscray.

Their recent history at the ground suggests pace and space meshes well with the pristine conditions under the dome.

Sydney’s defence should be able to account for the Dogs’ forward line, even with the relative youth and inexperience on display.

It’s the Swans for me, in a close run 100-90 kind of score. Let’s say 12 points.

That’s my Friday Night Forecast, what’s yours?