The decline of Hawthorn, and their clouded future

Hawthorn has, arguably, been the most successful team of the last decade. That much is clear, now that the era has finally ended. But the future of the Hawks is now uncertain.

Beginning in 2005, a playing list was built from the ground up by Alastair Clarkson, who developed a young core group that would go on to become superstars.

The names are so familiar that surnames will suffice: Mitchell, Hodge, Franklin, Rioli, Roughead, Lewis.

Surrounded in the team by the astute targeting of guys like Jack Gunston, Shaun Burgoyne, Brian Lake and Josh Gibson through trade and free agency, led to a modern dynasty. But despite recent success, the cracks were starting to show even before this year’s meek beginning.

Speculation about the contracts of Hodge, Mitchell, Burgoyne and Gibson had many in the media and general public wondering which of that group of veterans would retire come the end of the 2016 season. The re-signing of all four was a shock, especially once Hawthorn was dumped out of finals in straight sets at the hands of a sharper, slicker looking Bulldogs team. Plus, their 5-0 record in games decided by less than a goal last year was misleading.

Of the re-signed veterans who weren’t traded, Josh Gibson going around another year would appear to be the biggest mistake, especially considering that Kaiden Brand and Kurt Heatherley are two young key backs wasting away in the VFL. Kaiden Brand played 11 games last year and showed glimpses that he has the height and athleticism to be a key back for Hawthorn for the next 10 years.

Bran would greatly benefit from another year of learning his craft against the best in the AFL and, considering Gibson’s form to start this year, he may get his opportunity at the veteran’s expense very soon.

This year should be a year of discovery for the Hawthorn Football Club. Spots need to be up for grabs each week based on performance but preference also needs to be given to youth.

Are guys like Billy Hartung, Dallas Willsmore, Daniel Howe, Tim O’Brien and Jono O’Rourke able to become regulars in the team? Unless they are given sustained opportunity and greater responsibility, it’ll remain an unknown and they’ll continue to stagnate in the VFL.

When a team is as successful as Hawthorn has been for the past five to six years, the level of talent available to that club is significantly lower than a team with greater access to elite talent through the draft.

However, Hawthorn now faces the prospect of finishing outside the top eight for the first time since 2009 and yet not prospering at the draft due to a poorly handled future picks arrangement with St Kilda. Depending on where GWS finish, Hawthorn’s 1st pick in the 2017 draft will fall between the mid 30′ and 40’s.

Including 2016, where Hawthorn’s first pick was 76, this year will be the second year in a row that Hawthorn will be unable to bring in young, elite talent through the draft, while also losing at least two of their senior brigade.

This, paired with the inexperience of the younger guys on the Hawthorn list, points towards the potential for bottoming out in coming years unless opportunities are given to those young players mentioned above right now, while there is still enough talent to cover for their inexperience.

Unless time is dedicated to the discovery of whatever young gems may be hidden in the Hawks list, times ahead may be rough. No longer can Hawthorn rely on it’s older players to cover for deficiencies in it’s middle tier, the improvement must come from beneath now.

The Hawthorn we know is gone. The end came quickly. But what next?