An unusually low profile Friday night this week, as the Port Adelaide Power host the Carlton Blues. Neither team made the top eight last year, making it one of two such Friday night match ups.
No matter, it shapes as an interesting game.
Last year doesn’t matter much now – the fans of a dozen teams will tell you that. Still, seeing Port Adelaide and Carlton on a Friday night when the fixture was released last year seemed to stick out among the sea of Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide and Geelong outings.
Maybe it’s the recent history between the two sides: their past two meetings have been in Carlton’s favour by two and four points, respectively. If we stretch the time series out a little more, there’s been a third super-close game in the pair’s last five: a one point win to Carlton in what was the last game at Football Park in 2013.
To more pressing matters. Port Adelaide have managed their way to a 2-2 start despite what looked like a horrid first four, winning against the Swans and Fremantle before running into the two best teams in the competition in Adelaide and Greater Western Sydney.
There is no shame in losing to the latter teams – they have one loss between the two of them, and that only came because they played each other in Round 1.
The signs are very good. Port Adelaide were well in the hunt in both of their losses, a 31 point margin against the Giants coming solely in the last quarter, and some wayward kicking arguably the death blow against the Crows in the final quarter.
The Power is back on, and finals look a distinct possibility, given Port are yet to face any team in the bottom six, and they’ve got two of them (Collingwood and Brisbane) twice.
Carlton’s situation is very different. Where the Power are firmly in the middle of their journey to a destination, the Blues are still working out which path to take. It’s been a while since we’ve talked Carlton, and in the intermittent period a lot has happened.
The Blues are now much closer to running a list that is in keeping with their position on the ladder. The team’s average age and average games played are both 17th in the competition, ahead of the remarkably youthful Brisbane Lions. They have an equal-league high of 15 players aged 21 or younger.
There are still some hangers-on in the older demographics though: the Blues have 21 players in prime age or older, more than ten of the 18 teams.
It is playing out on the field. The kids are being played. Carlton’s average playing 22 age has been 24.8, their lowest mark for some time. It should get lower still going forward, given the Blues are still rocking line ups with ten guys aged 27 or older: Kade Simpson, Sam Rowe (as good a spoiler as you’d ever hope to see), Dale Thomas, Simon White, Levi Casboult, Ed Curnow, and Matthew Wright, as well as Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Matthew Kreuzer. They have been the younger of the two teams twice in four games – a much better strike rate than 2016.
Two of those older stagers are out tonight: Kreuzer and Thomas are both carrying niggling injuries, and have been replaced by Andrew Phillips and debutant Cameron Polson. Carlton will therefore trot out their youngest line up of the year.
The Power have made one change, with Patrick Ryder – one of the only WADA-banned players to have returned in great form – returning from a suspension in place of Matthew White.
The youth movement does mean Carlton are experiencing the usual rebuild-y level of performance: their scoring power ranks 17th, defensive prowess 10th, and a midfield that is getting smashed on ground balls.
Jacob Weitering, a potential 15-year, multi-time All Australian centre half back is withering in the Blues’ attack, a move I foreshadowed in the offseason but didn’t actually think was going to come to pass.
He’s been a pretty good key position forward, but is already a very good defender, and will undoubtedly spend most of his career down back. I’m all for learning and continuous improvement, but it seems like the Blues are overthinking it here.
Despite the middling offensive performances, Carlton are still playing to Brendon Bolton’s ball control scheme, averaging 90 field marks per game (third in the league) and breaking even on time in possessions. That would explain their solid defensive performance.
Port Adelaide are built to break teams like this. The Power are moving fast, and playing what looks like a one on one option scheme with the ball in hand.
What I mean by that is when the Power turn the ball over or execute a kick in, they’re attempting to move it into the middle of the ground by hand or foot, and then spread across both sides of the ground. It break opposition zones, poking holes and allowing Port Adelaide to score with great efficiency.
The line has been set at seven goals at most betting agencies. It is hard to disagree with this assessment, despite the recent history between these two teams.
Port Adelaide have started the year with an almighty spring in their step, and would undoubtedly be among the 4-0 starters if they hadn’t run into the two best teams in the competition.
At home, with a full strength team, Port Adelaide will be far too strong for the youthful Carlton.
It won’t quite be a bloodbath, because for all their flaws the Blues are still able to put the clamps on most teams. But a big margin looks in prospect; the Power by nine goals.
That’s my Friday Night Forecast, what’s yours?
Macca
Guest
Delist Casboult - the bloke who has kicked 7 goals 1 behind in the past 2 weeks and is currently averaging pretty much career highs across the board. Yeah great plan. As for the rest some will go and some will stay but as I said "the more interesting question is how does he plan to replace them?" "Palmer shortly, who Carlton don’t even seem to want going by selection," you do realise Palmer is injured don't you?
The Original Buzz
Guest
mattyb, I agree with most of that list. Casboult, White and Rowe won't go as they are still contributing. Kerridge and Armfield will likely play on next year as there are too many Klingons below them. Thomas will like stay as well for the same reason, but on less dollars. Gorringe has not really played much so too early to call on him, he currently out injured with Lamb and Sumner so they will have more chances to prove themselves this year. My guess is from your list they will drop Boakhorst, Buckley, Jaksch,Graham, Jones and likely one other - possibly Gallucci or Alex Silvagni. Macca, I tink you are correct in that they will only get rid of 5, possibly 6 this year, see my last sentence above. On last nights game, it was very ugly to watch but there were a few shining lights in the darkness. Skill level was woeful and that really showed in the turn-overs, it wasn't until the last quarter that they seemed to gel as a team. Murphy, Gibbs, Cripps and Simpson seemed to carry the team as usual. I was impressed by Docherty's efforts, he played a good game. SPS has some skills that will make him a fan favourite (he is already mine.) Pickett has speed and his skills are ok, not great but ok, he will do well once his skill level rises. He does need to get more physical though, an outlier last night. Charlie Curnow has very good hands but is a poor kick, not yet key forward material, Sav Rocca has another apprentice there. He plays a lot like Casboult. His brother Ed was a bit of a passenger and didn't seem to get in there much for a midfielder. Kreuzer was sorely missed, Phillips did well in the ruck but is no good trying to take contested marks. He missed every one of them, I think more time is needed with him. Polson, Williamson and Fisher did ok for their level, I like Fisher's style and Polson did ok for a first gamer, three to keep an eye on. I thought Marchbank and Plowman were very good in the contest, very physical and some positive signs there. I am excited by this pair, a very good back line is developing there. Weitering, what the hell happened there? Slow, no second efforts, just out of sorts and should have not even been there. It was his worst game yet. I am guessing he is injured or sore and won't play next week. Port Adelaide on the other hand, had no passengers and it would be great to see the Blues play like that, a very exciting brand of footy (if you are a Port fan). When they got the ball, they spread out across the oval rather than head for the forward line. A tactic that will be hard to defend against, possibly top four material at the moment.
Darren
Guest
DingoGray you are on the money. Blues supporters we have some promise but we are miles off it. How about we shut up for awhile until we are a bit closer to the top 8?
Sammy
Guest
If port had kicked straight the 100 point barrier would already long be passed and there is still a 1/4 to go. Carlton look absolutely woeful in the second half and are not chasing or tackling with any heart it seems. I was really hoping carlton could pull off a shock and win but wow..it is ugly
MickZ
Guest
If by 9 goals 54 points is not a bloodbath then what is?
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
No team should get beaten by 100 points now that the two new franchises aren't eating up all the talent. If your boys get flogged by 100+....find a new team I'd suggest. Saying that: your boys I suspect will get flogged tonight at AO by close to that margin.
mattyb
Guest
Buzz,I think Carlton still need to delist- Armfield, Boakhorst, Buckley, Casboult, Gorringe, Jaksch,Graham, Jones, Kerridge, Lamb, Sumner, Rowe,Thomas and White. That's 14 players. Gibbs you'd think will need to be traded considering he wants out, Kruezer will be a chance to look elsewhere at the seasons end also. Then you have the ridiculous situation of adding Smeldts and Palmer shortly, who Carlton don't even seem to want going by selection,and it would appear there is still a fair bit of a problem amongst all the alleged roses.
Macca
Guest
Thanks, sounds like it should be great for footy
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
5% chance of rain, but it's blue skies for the evening rush hour that's beginning right now. So, pretty much perfect weather.
Macca
Guest
AD do you have a weather report?
Macca
Guest
You predict epic proportions and then go for just 60+ points? I would have thought it would have to at least be 100 to make "epic"!! ;)
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Been too busy this week. Sounds like I've missed out on some epic discussions. Simple: flogging of epic proportions tonight. Power by 60+ points.
Liam
Guest
I'd say that what you define as downhill skiing is precisely how Port play; players who love to stream forward and kick a goal, but are lazy when the opposition are on top or in their backline.
Macca
Guest
Dingo - What about Marchbank or Silvagni - they have more games under their belt than SPS? But even if we only take those 2 as very good players and add them to the likes of Cripps and Docherty (I would add Plowman but you mightn't) you have a good core group that can be built around long term - if then another 1 or 2 the likes of Fisher, Williamson, MacReadie, Marcbank, Silvagni, C Curnow, Pickett and Polson overtime move into that "very good player" bracket of yours suddenly you have roughly a third of your team all 23 or under classed as very good players spread nicely over the field - can you see why we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. And it isn't just me rating Marchbank and Plowman as long term players for the blues - many good journalists have said exactly the same thing in the last few months.
Macca
Guest
Mattyb - "What I’m saying is Carlton people seem to think they own the rights to who can and can’t be criticized down at Carlton." No they don't they just want the criticism to be supported - the fact you can't do that is what makes you feel victimised. "I’ve also heard Carlton people make some horrible comments regarding Tom Boyd and Caleb Daniel." No, you haven't. "others should have the right to make comments regarding Silvagni or Carlton generally if they think that is fair" they do, but those comments can be challenged and need to stand up to that challenge - yours don't. "while Silvagni,Mckay,Gleeson and Judd remain in prominent positions within this tragic club." Gleeson is no longer in a "prominent" position, the last 2 trade and draft periods have demonstrated that Silvagni is an excellent recruiter and your criticism all 4 is only that they played for the club and are still contributing to the club - that is almost the definition of baseless.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
What I've seen of your under 21's I've got Weitering & Seton has very good players. The rest I would say the sample size is way too small to throw out any so many game career type claims that we've so often seen you do on here.
hal
Guest
Personally I would to see Carlton win this one, they won't but I would love to see it. If it rains they have some chance of making it a close game. Carlton are nowhere near as skilled or talented as Port but they are more honest. Port have a history of being dishonest selfish front runners. I am not believing the hype that this leopard has changed its spots.
I ate pies
Guest
They're front runners. Downhill skiiers are players who love to receive and run into the forward line to kick goals, but never run the other way to defend. Get it? They only go one way.
Macca
Guest
OK Dingo - tonight we have 10 players under 21 playing - what is your opinion on each of them?
Macca
Guest
Buzz - the more interesting question is how does he plan to replace them? We all know the list is a work in progress and there will be more significant pruning over the next 2 years but 6 is pretty much the maximum you can draft in a year (especially now we don't have a lot to trade after the last 2 years) and even then it is uncommon to get the quality of players we did with late picks so if you don't pick up a couple of recycled players how do you replace 15 players?