As an Englishman, I am all too aware of the dangers of hyping up our national team ahead of a major sporting tournament.
However, we are a month out from the start of the 2017 Champions Trophy and something feels slightly different. England are hot favourites, and for valid reasons.
We’re playing at home. As the host nation, England will have the advantage of playing in their own conditions, where the pitches are green and the ball swings – ideal for the likes of David Willey and Chris Woakes.
Having recently named their 15-man squad which only includes six players from their disastrous 2015 World Cup display, it shows just how far this side has come under Trevor Bayliss’ watch.
Since the English summer of 2015, England have played a ‘no fear’ brand of cricket, resulting in two scores of over 400, once against New Zealand and the other against Pakistan.
England’s main strength is their depth. Unbelievably, Jonny Bairstow, fresh from smashing 174 off just 113 balls in a recent Domestic One Day Cup game, is no guarantee to even be in the strongest XI.
Bairstow, who is coming off a stellar 2016 Test season where he broke the England wicketkeeping record for both runs and dismissals in a calendar year, is regarded to be England’s third choice ODI keeper behind Jos Buttler and Sam Billings.
Bairstow has expressed a desire to open the batting, something he has done for Yorkshire this season. This could be his only way into this squad at the expense of Alex Hales. But I’ll leave that to the selectors to decide.
The depth doesn’t stop there.
There is no place in the 15-man squad for Middlesex quick Steven Finn – a man who has over 100 ODI wickets to his name, promising Northants batsman Ben Duckett and death bowling specialist Chris Jordan. A summary of just how strong this side is.
The question is, how can England find the best way to utilise all this talent?
Versatility is key in ODI cricket, and England have a bundle of it. They have batsman who can move around the line-up, bowlers who can perform in any game situation, and a legitimate allrounder who ties everything together.
That allrounder goes by the name of Ben Stokes.
Stokes is a once-in-a-generation sort of talent. He can justify his selection on his batting or bowling alone. The fact he can do both is just a bonus. As a player who plays all three formats of the game, Stokes has had to develop his game in recent times, and bring a stronger level of leadership to the table – something which has benefitted England greatly.
Along with captain Eoin Morgan, Jos Buttler and Joe Root, Stokes is part of a middle order that can chop and change depending on the game situation. This will be a major weapon for England.
On the bowling front it may seem the side lacks a genuine spearhead, and that argument could definitely be made. There is no James Anderson or Stuart Broad, who now only play Test cricket as a way of keeping their bodies in tip-top condition.
However, Willey, Woakes and a combination of Jake Ball or Liam Plunkett, along with Ben Stokes, the leg-spin of Adil Rashid and off-spin of Moeen Ali provide England with enough firepower to skittle through any opposition line-up on a given day.
BBL fans will know all too well the skill Willey holds with the new ball, after seeing him play for the Perth Scorchers the past two Aussie summers. Woakes and Punkett provide pace and bounce, while Ball has the quality and nerve to bowl at the death.
Having won their past two home ODI series against Sri Lanka and Pakistan 3-0 and 4-1 respectively, Eoin Morgan’s side will be confident they have what it takes to claim a first Champions Trophy success.
The talent is clearly there. It’s a question of whether England can make the most of this talent, something they have failed to do in the past.
If I were a selector my team for the first game against Bangladesh would be as follows.
1. Jason Roy
2. Alex Hales
3. Joe Root
4. Eoin Morgan (c)
5. Ben Stokes
6. Jos Buttler (wk)
7. Moeen Ali
8. Chris Woakes
9. Adil Rashid
10. David Willey
11. Jake Ball
Yes, England will face some stern competition in their group as they will take on Bangladesh, New Zealand and Australia, but with the depth of the team, coupled with the ‘X-Factor’ of Ben Stokes, this could be England’s year.
Call me crazy, but I think we might just do it.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
In that case, maybe it will take a break through at a World Cup, not just a champions trophy, to fully break the "hoodoo"! Even if SA won here, there could still be the pressure at the next WC that "you could do it at the lesser Champions Trophy tournament, but can you do it on the biggest stage at the World Cup".
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Hardly, the last ODI world cup was just 2 years ago. T20 was pretty mature 2 years ago, not a lot has changed on that front in that period. There was so much talk at the WC about it being all about the batsmen, bowlers may as well be replaced with bowling machines etc, 400+ scores were being racked up and all that. But in the end, what that WC showed up was that you just couldn't get away with mediocre bowlers like you used to be able to. Bowlers who bowled really well actually came away with pretty awesome tournament figures, but the lesser bowlers just got smashed.
Andy
Guest
But last world cup the 20 20 was still in its infancy, nowadays batsmen seem more able in the shorter form. Its interesting though that most of the betting places have England or both England and Australia as favourites whilst few on here have England as favourites.
Charging Rhino
Roar Guru
True, it haunts the team. Although we did win the inaugural Champions Trophy in 1998! :-)
Amrit
Roar Guru
England does not have a chance, WT20 isn't everywhere. Much of this optimism stems from their runners-up finish in the previous edition and the WT20. England's bowling will have to be better than the first XI you've suggested
Ouch
Guest
Agree completely. It will be sooner rather than later that SA will be winning one of these tournaments.
Bob
Guest
They'll have to bat well. With that bowling attack they'll be chasing squillions
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
You have to feel eventually they are going to win one of these. I suspect they are always a bit further down the betting than the quality of their team would suggest they should be because of their history in major tournaments, but you have to think that's got to come to an end eventually. I'm guessing every time an SA team gets to the pointy end of a major tournament there's this pressure on all the players of this little voice in the head saying "can you be the team to break the hoodoo?" and so far they haven't been able to get past that. I reckon most of it goes back to that one World Cup in England where SA really should have won, but first there was the infamous "you've just dropped the world cup" drop, followed by a comical run out in consecutive games against Australia. That's formed the choking image that's haunted them since and is probably the weight on their shoulders whenever they get in a position where they might win it. Break through once and that will be all gone.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
I really hope Lynn's shoulder is good enough to get him through it! He's a potential early pick for player of the tournament if his shoulder is right and he can play all the games. Talk about batting firepower, there's not much bigger firepower than Lynn at the moment if he can stay injury free!
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
One big thing to note is, looking back at the last World Cup, the four semi-final teams were the teams with the best bowling attacks, the two best of those four were the finalists and the team with the best bowling attack of the tournament was the one that won. Batting firepower is great, but in truth, all the top teams have the players who can rack up insane scores. When it comes down to it in big tournaments it's so often been the bowling attacks that have set the teams apart. You look at the bowlers in the Aussie squad and you see, Hazlewood, Starc, Cummins, Pattinson, Hastings, Zampa, with Henriques, Stoinis, Maxwell, Head among the potentials to fill in the fifth bowling spot. That's a serious bowling attack, especially when you look at the quicks. On the batting firepower side, there's Warner and Smith who've been in phenomenal form, Lynn who just hits it further the faster you bowl to him, Head, Maxwell. Finch and Henriques may more likely be the backups, but Henriques has been hitting them incredibly well the last couple of seasons, and Finch is a bit more hit and miss, but if he gets it right can hit it as good as anyone. And that's just Australia. I could go through the SA squad and it would probably look equally imposing. SA are always going to be further down in the betting because of their history of flopping in major tournaments, but they've got a pretty awesome team to be able to challenge there. I'd probably have Australia and SA as favourites, then India, NZ and England probably the next group behind them. Definitely in with a chance, but the weaker bowling attack is a worry.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
I hope England is ready for Lynnsanity!
Ed Nixon
Roar Pro
Hi Ronan, I agree it will be a great tournament. Although the white ball does not swing as much as the red Duke ball, David Willey is a case in point in how you can get the ball to swing just enough in the early overs. Being a left armer he has the ability to move the ball into the right-hander through his use of setting the seam position to angle the ball so it nips back. Comparing Stokes and Mitch Marsh in my opinion is something that cannot be done. Stokes' statistics in ODI's don't paint a true reflection on how important he is to this side and what kind of impact he is capable on any given day. His current form deserves some praise, as he has been able to drastically change his awful statistics from a few years ago, where he was averaging around 14 with the bat and close to 50 with the ball. He has really matured as an international cricketer and I would take him in my team over any other allrounder (test and ODI's). Your points about the bowling attack are fair. There is no spearhead to the attack and we will be relying on batting first and putting on close to 400. Having said that, I do feel the variety of the bowling attack can only be seen as a plus. Thanks for the feedback!
Targa
Guest
I think you mean AT home. Australia lost 2-0 in NZ and 5-0 in South Africa.
Ouch
Guest
...will get to the semi-finals and choke? ...will make the final and choke?
Charging Rhino
Roar Guru
South Africa...
Targa
Guest
I agree. And a decent young keeper batsman
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
NZ are blessed with all-rounders, gives them a really good balance. The NZ selectors really missed a trick though by overlooking Henry and Worker for the Champions Trophy squad.
qwetzen
Guest
Could you please explain why the ICC has them ranked 5th? Hint: The only side currently ranked above England that Eng has beaten in a series in the last two years is NZ. 3-2 in Pomgolia. Two years ago. Compelling form.
Ouch
Guest
Rasid also has a worse average and strike rate than Adam Zampa. Sorry Ed, but he doesn't make the cut imo.
Targa
Guest
NZ has 4 players with ODI numbers as good as or better than Stokes: Jimmy Neesham, Corey Anderson, Colin de Grandhomme, Mitchell Santner