Comparing expectation and reality: Where the AFL's sides and stars sit after Round 10

Round 10 is in the books, and let’s take a look at the comparison between expectations and reality.

As followers of my articles know, my ‘Spreadsheet of Death’ tracks a wide range of predictions, polling, projections, prognostications, prattling and posturing regarding the performances of AFL teams and players.

There are more than enough sites out there for you to dissect physical game statistics – I mean, who doesn’t follow how many metres gained Tom Mitchell gets per disposal, right? – but we total the vast array of human evaluations of teams and players, which sometimes provides a completely different perspective on the game.

So, let’s get to it!

If we total and average all the predictions that I track, we can see how week-by-week expectations differ from pre-season projections and actual results.

Here’s a side-by-side comparison of the three: the meta-prediction consensus record from before the season, the cumulative record from a consensus of each week’s game predictions, the actual current records, and just for fun, we’ll throw in their ELO-Following Football rating for comparison (see my article from May ninth for details; 50 is the average rating).

Adelaide (16-6 before the season, 9-1 from game predictions, 8-2 actual record, and an ELO-FF rating of 79.1) – Not one of the consensus “tri-favourites” when the season began, but they were fourth in our “meta-predictions”, so they’re not far out of place. Their weekly rating had them as favourites all ten rounds so far.

GWS (19-3, 8½-1½, 8-2, 68.4) – Despite an injury list straight out of a war movie, the Giants remain close to their projected pace. If it were me, I’d simply be trying to hold on to any top-four position while I waited for my players to come back from the training room.

Geelong (15-7, 8-2, 7-3, 59.6) – Slightly better than expected in March. Thank you, Dangerwood.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

West Coast (15-7, 8½-1½, 6-4, 51.8) – As a famous American football coach once said, “They are who we thought they were.” Performing below weekly expectations, as they have each year we’ve tracked them.

Western Bulldogs (17-5, 7½-2½, 6-4, 62.2) – Our weekly warning that the Bulldogs were seventh last year; sixth at R10. This is where they probably expected to be, no matter what our expectations say.

Richmond (8-14, 6-4, 6-4, 50.3) – As much as we wanted to ask what’s wrong with the Tigers over the last month, remember that none of us thought they’d make finals at all! Their meta-projection was 14th place; ninth would sting but still be a step up from expectations.

Fremantle (9-13, 3-7, 6-4, 33.4) – The Dockers made the biggest jump from both types of predictions, mostly because of what we saw last year, and then wrote them off as dead again after Round 2. But their rating suggests this week was not an aberration. One of two teams already surpassing last year’s win total.

Port Adelaide (10-12, 5-4, 5-4, 75.0) – The second-highest rating in the comp, but somehow their record doesn’t show it. The reason? Their four losses came from the first four teams on this list. Port’s lost to whom they should have lost and won when they should have as well. Expect plenty more wins. They were originally predicted to finish 11th.

Melbourne (11-11, 5-5, 5-5, 53.6) – Eleven-eleven, five-and-five, five-and-five. Yawn.

St Kilda (12-10, 4-6, 5-5, 49.6) – Still promising, still many questions. Too early to cast this season as anything yet – the Saints could end up top four, or they could miss finals by three games.

Essendon (9-13, 4-6, 5-5, 41.5) – The other team surpassing last year’s win total, for obvious reasons. But they’re also better game to game than we’ve expected; our ratings had them favoured outright in just one game so far this season.

Collingwood (10-12, 4-6, 4-6, 52.2) – The NBA is better when the Lakers and Celtics are good. The NFL is better when the Packers and Cowboys are good. And the AFL is better when the Magpies are better than this.

North Melbourne (6-16, 3-7, 4-6, 53.8) – Despite the record matching predictions pretty well, most would agree with their rating that the ‘Roos are better than we expected them to be. They’ll surpass six wins easily.

Hawthorn (14-8, 4-6, 4-6, 37.9) – One of two teams to have already surpassed last year’s loss total. No point in our joining the chorus of philosophers on this enigmatic team.

Sydney (17-5, 6-4, 3-7, 61.0) – See Hawthorn. And congratulations, Lance Franklin, one of the top ten goal kickers of the last 120 years.

Gold Coast (5-17, 2-7, 3-6, 33.7) – Good luck, Rodney.

Carlton (3-19, ½ -9½, 3-7, 32.3) – Game to game, there hasn’t been a single game expected them to win. And yet… (Our weekly ratings actually predicted they would win three games, though.)

Brisbane (2-20, 0-10, 1-8, 5.6) – Like Carlton, there hasn’t been a single game they were expected to win. Unlike Carlton, however… (And with a single-digit rating, needless to say, we didn’t expect any wins, either.)

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

Here’s a look at our “meta-Brownlow” count (see my article from May 15th for the mechanics on this) after nine rounds (the data for Round 10 will come in over the course of the coming week):

1. Rory Sloane, Adelaide – 272 points
2. Patrick Dangerfield, Geelong – 225 points
3. Dustin Martin, Richmond – 220 points
4. Scott Pendlebury, Collingwood – 201
5. Elliot Yeo, West Coast – 199
6. Joel Selwood, Geelong – 184
7. Rory Laird, Adelaide – 173
8. Zach Merrett, Essendon – 162
9. Marcus Bontempelli, Western – 160
10. Ollie Wines, Port Adelaide – 149
11. Josh Kelly, GWS – 142
12. Robbie Gray, Port Adelaide – 138
13. Lachie Neale, Fremantle – 136

Then you’ve got a host of players in the next pack, starting with Joe Daniher (Essendon), Jack Steven (St Kilda) and Josh Kennedy (Sydney) at 135; then Jeremy Cameron (GWS), Tom Mitchell (Hawthorn), and Josh Kennedy (West Coast) one point behind at 134, and so forth.

In that large pack I spoke of above, Clayton Oliver represents Melbourne at 133, Ben Cunnington has North’s highest score at 131, and Gary Ablett Jr is Gold Coast’s highest-rated player at 131. Brisbane’s highest-rated player is Tom Rockliff with 105 points, and Marc Murphy leads Carlton with 123 points.

Since Round 6, Dangerfield has moved up from fourth to second, Yeo dropped from third, Pendlebury moved up from seventh and Laird from ninth, and both Robbie Gray and the Eagle Kennedy dropped from the top ten.

Rory Sloane has led the meta-Brownlow race ever since Round 4, when he had the second of his four ‘dominant-rated’ performances in a row. (A ‘dominant’ performance in our terminology is when 90 per cent or more of reporting sites score his performance as worthy of recognition, whether that’s top three in the game or top 22 of the week or whatever their criteria is.)

Sloane is the only player with four such games, in rounds three through six, plus a ‘prominent’ performance in Round 2 (80 per cent recognition or more).

Yeo (Rounds 4, 6, and 7), Dangerfield (Rounds 1, 2, and 9), Selwood (Rounds 3, 5, and 9), and Pendlebury (Rounds 1, 6, and 9) have three dominant games each this year. Laird, Wines, Martin, Gray, Greene, and the Eagles’ Kennedy each have two.

And of course, I’ll end with my usual warning: these are not describing anything quantifiable in statistics but rather the recognition of game performances by human beings evaluating after each game. Therefore, if you want to object, you’re just objecting to (a bunch of) people’s opinions, not a fact.

But then again, I live in the birthplace of ‘alternative facts’ here in the US, so feel free to argue about anything you want and call it factual – I’ll feel right at home!