The cricket fan in me likes to think anticipation this side of the world is reaching fever pitch with the ICC Champions Trophy just around the corner.
The realist, or cynic depending on how you view things, can spot apathy a mile off and the gathering of the best eight ODI teams in the world has barely registered with the majority.
This is isn’t a surprise of volcanic proportions with the football and rugby seasons only just reaching their respective climaxes – I like these sports as much as the next man, but by my word they drag their seasons out – however it’s still a big tournament that seemingly wants to stand in the corner and not talk to anybody.
Read why Ronan O’Connell thinks England are overhyped.
In many ways, the Champions Trophy exists in a rather strange void.
There is always a call for context, especially with the 50-over game, and when some is provided nobody seems too fussed.
Of course, this particular tournament suffers because it isn’t called ‘The World Cup’ but that’s a shame as it has a lot to offer. So all in all, what’s not to like?
I don’t necessarily require an answer to that question as I’m all too aware of cricket’s ills but the departure from ultimately pointless ODI series, even if only for a couple of weeks, should be appreciated.
And, if the bookmakers are to be believed, England are the favourites to get their hands on the trophy come June 18.
(AP Photo/Rajanish Kakade)
In their favour are a couple of years’ worth of startling performances after a 2015 World Cup that went lower than the bottom of the proverbial barrel, home advantage and a team with a glut of batsmen ideally suited to the current version of ODI cricket.
On the flip side of the coin is a major tournament record which shouldn’t be highlighted on the CV, the under-reported fact English pitches for limited overs games are not as bowler-friendly as is often made out and a bowling attack that pales in comparison to its batting cousin.
Things do change and every team with an unenviable record, especially where the competition is relatively limited, gets their moment in the sun eventually.
Whether 2017 is the year the ODI tournament ghost is finally laid to rest is open to debate – and whatever is said, history does rest heavily on those carrying the flag – but for once the odds look more realistic than wildly optimistic.
And what of the other contenders?
If England generally turn up full of hope and leave disappointed, the South Africans are the market leaders in pulling a hamstring in the final furlong.
I hesitate to use the word choke because not every downfall has been at their own hand but it is beyond reasonable doubt that there is a significant hurdle they haven’t been able to get over.
Could it be their turn? I’m not sensing it.
India, if their top order is on song and the pitches play true, are a dangerous proposition who won this event the last time it was played on these shores. Semi-finals at worst.
Australia will rightly be fancied and they are to ODI tournaments what Germany are to the football World Cup. Form in the run-up is, by and large, meaningless as they are competitive whoever is playing and the current line-up would fancy their chances in a straight shootout against all-comers.
(AAP Image/Mal Fairclough)
So that’s the four in the running and the rest will be just that.
Apologies if this is doing Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and New Zealand a disservice but they won’t be in the shake-up down the final stretch. The Kiwis, especially, would no doubt take umbrage at such a dismissal of their credentials but so be it.
So at the risk of lapsing into cliché, and pinning my national colours unashamedly to the mast, it will be an England-Australia final with the hosts coming out on top.
Well, stranger things have happened.
Anubhav Bansal
Roar Rookie
I agree on most of what you've wrote but i will not agree on the fact that south africa has no weakness, as they struggle to chase targets which is like strength of every ODI team. Their weakness can be well observed against england, as they had to chase only 330 in first odi but could made only 268 and in the 2nd odi, they were so close to winning it but somehow they choked. So, i think if in semifinal they have to chase over 300 i think they'll lose easily, in 2015 world cup they had to chase 220 or 210 against pakistan but they still managed to lose that game, so i don't think they're going to win this tournament.
The MonkeyInsideYourHead
Guest
In fact the game played out just as I had said. Our top order were great, like I said above and our all-rounders all failed. The game proved me right.
The MonkeyInsideYourHead
Guest
After our top order laid a magnificent platform for the lower middle order, for the all rounders I mentioned to finish the job and get to 330, they collapsed in a heap. As for the 5th and 6th bowling options we didn't get to see them so we can't judge. This is the first time Ronchi has come off properly at the start. If he continues there's one issue solved, but one swallow doesn't make a summer. That it looked likely that Aussie would lose doesn't mean we don't have issues. It just means their attack has been hyped and their batting is fragile. It'll either score really big, or be 3 or 4 down for not much.
Jacko
Guest
Or maybe Aus will get lucky and have a game they were losing get rained out
Jacko
Guest
Yeah those issues you refer to in the NZ side just seem to be monkeys inside your head
The MonkeyInsideYourHead
Guest
T Singh, oops I thought I put the period. The period is the last 2 years and I don't really think there's a better time frame that takes into consideration recent form, but form that has been sustained over a decent period. Over the last 2 years Guptil and Taylor have outperformed India's Batsman by a distance bar Kohli. And the warm ups are just that, warm ups. I think a 5 match series that was played within the last year is a much better indicator and despite having home advantage against a side not renown against spin, dejected about a sub par test series, India eeked out 3-2 win. NZ do much better against India when conditions are reversed. On the roads that the England groundsman are under orders to produce though it probably goes to India as their batsman's limitations against the moving ball won't be tested and their bowling attack is a bit more well-rounded. NZ have issues, who opens with Guptil, which all-rounders do they go with, which wicket keeper and their 5th bowling option has been leaking runs. But their top order being brittle isn't one of them. But Only SA are without a significant weakness and would be shoe ins if the grounds had any pitches had any balance between bat and ball. Without it, OZ have the best attack and are one of the top 3 batting sides on concrete.
Ed Nixon
Roar Pro
Our batting lineup is absolutely dynamite. We have showed that consistently over the last 18 months. Once Jason Roy finds his form their is no real weakness in the lineup. I hope Woakes' injury isn't as bad as first feared, because without him to lead the bowling unit, we might ship a heck of a lot of runs.
Savage
Roar Rookie
india have been conservative not only with their bat but also with their selection.rahane is a born failure in limited overs cricket and will fail underpressure as always. selectors should have picked kuldeep yadav which would be ideal replacement if any of our spinners fail.only way i see india winning the tournament if kohli really fires(like 2016 t20wc) and bowlers bowl to their full potential. Here is india's record after 2015 wc and they have played 13 matches at home and 8 away. http://bit.ly/2rgbjJo
Tapeshwer Singh
Guest
can you deny rahul's potential in limited overs cricket though?? he already has a hundred in international t20 cricket of less than 50 balls.He will perform given enough chances. I am not going to argue any of your other points cause they are based on assumptions,only time will tell.
Savage
Roar Rookie
i know rahul had great test series vs australia,but he isnt a good limited overs player also has problem against short ball and pandey i have great hopes of him but he failed against new zealand and england recently.you can give all excuses you want but we lack a finisher or power hitter who can help us score extra 15-25 runs in death overs.pandya is overated bully who can only score against weak attack and is having beginner luck and will soon be exposed with both bat and bowl against top sides like australia, new zealand or south africa.india's bowling is looking great at the moment but can they perform regularly against top sides is there to be seen.my semi finalist - australia,england/ nz,india and south africa. finals-australia vs england/nz.i cant decide between england and new zealand but england have home advantage.south africa will choke in semi final as usual and india will suffer same due to their conservative play just like last t20 wc 2016.
Tapeshwer Singh
Guest
First of all This champions trophy ,India is no where near the best batting side and also injury hit with rahul and pandey out, though pandey is not much of a loss but selectors were stupid enough to select rahane and karthik instead of pant/samson/tripathi/nitish rana.Point is this India squad is not the best batting side,they'll still do well though. Secondly what period are you talking about where martin guptill has got these stats,i won't dispute guptill is a great opener because he is,but still choosing a specific period where a batsmen has done well already weakens your case when you can't look at their overall record and still be confident and have to resort to a performances in specific period. I had a look at guptill's odi record ,he avgs 43 at 87 sr.Thats good ,very good ,as far as no indian batsman having better strike rate and avg, have a look at Dhoni,Jadhav and Pandya's odi record. As far as kohli is concerned,whether he fires or not is not going to be an issue,you see he always fires in ODIs,whether anyone likes it or not and this time will be the same,might not be as fluent but will still do his work. And tbh you just lost a warmup game to India comprehensively ,you can make excuses but at the end of the day you lost and that's what it is,pointing out the problems in India's odi team aren't going to make NZ ODI side better. and please don't take this the wrong way,I supported NZ after India were out of the wc'15 and you fcked it up and gave aus its 5 th cup XD , forgive me if i don't bet on NZ in knock out games. but I would rather have NZ doing well than eng /aus/sa this tourney,but just like India they have a brittle batting lineup,india maybe more so due to conservative selections of dhoni ,yuvraj,rahane and karthik ,when they could have invested in newer guys.
Savage
Roar Rookie
agree indian batsmen are overated and lack power hitting which would decide this champion's trophy.
The MonkeyInsideYourHead
Guest
For some reason I can't reply to T Signh, but you're the one is kidding yourself. NZ has more batsmen in the top 15 than India. Guptill averages more than any Indian bar Kohli at a faster strike rate than ANY Indian batsman and only Warner out of any international batsman has more runs over that period. R Taylor averages more than Guptill a shade over 60, 4 runs shy of Kohli and far, far higher than any other Indian over that period. NZ's top 4 have performed better than India's top four over the past two years. That if you count runs scored and the speed they've been scored in real matches, rather than basing it on the hype of the media, a media that panders to their largest market by far. India's bowling strangely enoughmatches up better to NZ and is probably a bit more rounded. that's the same Bangladesh that had been well beaten by NZ throughout the tri-series they were involved in. That's the same NZ that was depleted and demoralised that India barely beat in an ODI series recently 3-2 in India. The same India that were routed by NZ in NZ. India now have a bowling attack, it's just that their batting is brittle and relies heavily on Kohli. If Kohli doesn't fire, I can't see India beating any of the top 4-5 sides. Their group is far weaker though, so they'll still probably make the semis regardless
Cadfael
Roar Guru
I think the poms will get up. They are at home and have been reasonably consistent. The ongoing problems with CA and ACA I think will affect our players. Pakistan is always a chance if they play to their ability in all their games. I can't see this happening.
13th Man
Guest
Watch England get bundled out in the Group stage, I can see them losing to both Australia and New Zealand. Australia V India final for mine
Alec Swann
Expert
Nick Did I really write that?! By all means ignore England given my previous. One day I'll pick a winner, one day ...
Tapeshwer Singh
Guest
yep guptill is definitely gonna fire in one of the games,might just be the poms . XD
Tapeshwer Singh
Guest
We have a funny guy here. XD try some other sports mate,cricket clearly isn't for you.
Nick
Guest
Alec, by your own admission you are a wretched fortune teller. I don't know your Champions Trophy record but you've picked 6 out of 6 losers for the past 6 world cups. With that in mind, England to do a repeat of their last rugby world cup and fail to get out of their pool :) http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/02/11/ive-bet-south-africa-theyll-win-sure/
Nick
Guest
I tend to agree. I think Bhuvaneshwar is the best short form bowler going around at the moment and for once India's bowlers look likely to win them games. India will be hard to beat