How many Test wins does Wallabies coach Michael Cheika need to chalk up this year to keep his job?
After a horror 2016 in which Australia won just six of their 15 matches – their worst season in over a decade – it’s a question worth contemplation with the international season close to kick-off.
The ARU continue to dither over which Super Rugby team will be culled, but the governing body will be firm in their view that the Wallabies are their only hope of lifting Australian rugby out of a deep rut.
Australia’s five Super Rugby teams’ results have been dismal. Fans are staying away and switching off. Angst abounds over the impending loss of the Melbourne Rebels or Western Force.
It looks almost certain that the Brumbies will be Australia’s sole representative in the Super Rugby finals and they appear long odds to challenge the top five teams. These are relatively gloomy times for a proud rugby nation. The international season can’t come soon enough.
Initially, the June Tests should provide at the very least a bit of respite from the often humiliating losses the Aussie Super Rugby teams have been on the end of – mostly from Kiwi teams – for most of the past three months.
For Cheika, it will be a chance to test some new combinations in preparation for what’s set to be another rugged Rugby Championship.
Getting the best out of Allan Ala’alatoa, Rory Arnold, Adam Coleman and Samu Kerevi will be crucial as will answering the question of whether newbies such as Ned Hanigan, Jack Dempsey, Karmichael Hunt, Marika Koroibete and Eto Nabuli show enough to be able to mix it with the All Blacks, Springboks and Pumas.
Fiji are on the menu first and shouldn’t pose too many problems. The Wallabies’ 2011 loss to Samoa should stave off complacency.
Scotland are the biggest threat to the Wallabies during the month. Only two of their Test players have been dragged away by the British and Irish Lions in New Zealand and the Scots have pushed the Wallabies hard in recent meetings.
The Wallabies have prevailed by one point, one point and six points in the last three Tests after losing the previous two: in the driving rain in Newcastle in 2013 and at Murrayfield in 2009. Italy should get belted in Brisbane.
The Super Rugby season climaxes in July and the start of August and will likely mean the Brumbies snap at the heels of the top guns of the competition without getting to the last two weeks.
And then the Wallabies step up for the chance to redeem themselves after a seven-Test Bledisloe and Rugby Championship in which I think they’ll need to at least equal their three victories from last season.
Anything less and Cheika could be shown the door.
Naturally, the ARU wouldn’t want to feel the pressure to sack a Wallabies coach around the same time as cutting a Super Rugby team. It’s the kind of upheaval that could turn the sport in Australia into a basket case. Rugby could flirt with being a true niche winter sport.
Cheika has proven to be a fine coach – he led the Waratahs to a Super Rugby title in 2014 and a year later took the Wallabies to a World Cup final.
However, a 40 per cent winning rate last year – especially an emphatic 3-0 series defeat to England at home – meant Cheika rapidly shed the goodwill he’d built up over two years. So where does he get his three wins from?
It seems far-fetched that the Wallabies can beat the All Blacks in any of the three Tests in Sydney and Dunedin in August and Brisbane in October.
(AAP Image/ David Rowland)
The All Blacks boast phenomenal depth in every position and will be hardened following their series against the Lions.
To think that one of Beauden Barrett or Aaron Cruden won’t start, Sam Cane, Jerome Kaino, Matt Todd or Ardie Savea will miss out on a back-row spot and two of Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Luke Romano and Scott Barrett won’t grab a second-row jersey is staggering.
The Wallabies were beaten by significant margins in 2016 and with an Australian Super Rugby team yet to beat a New Zealand team this year out of 18 matches, there’s no evidence the gap in class is narrowing.
That leaves a stretch of four games – home and away against the Boks and Argentina – that might decide Cheika’s fate.
It starts in Perth against South Africa, who are also coming off a shocking season last year when they won just four of 12 Tests.
There’s a good feeling in South Africa that they’ll turn their form around, essentially because Springboks coach Allister Coetzee is expected to pick a lot more players from the Lions, who have easily been the most dominant of their Super Rugby sides over the past three seasons.
Last year, it seemed Coetzee didn’t rate the Lions, choosing only two in his run-on side.
But there are some predictions as many as ten players from the Johannesburg-based team will get the nod in the starting XV to face France in a three-Test series in June.
Lions skipper and No.8 Warren Whiteley has been named as the new Springboks captain while Lions’ backline aces Andries Coetzee, Lionel Mapoe, Courtnall Skosan and Ross Cronje are set to bring plenty of spark.
Who knows how the Wallabies will be travelling when they arrive in Perth, but the Boks will be a much more formidable side this year. Their pack, as usual, won’t be bossed around.
A Wallabies loss in Western Australia would put Cheika’s reign in serious jeopardy.
The Wallabies then move to Canberra to take on Argentina. The Jaguares have been disappointing this season. They seem to have stagnated and whereas defensively they’ve been bruising in recent years, they’ve been below-par in this department in 2017.
As it stands now, Australia should start as strong favourites to rack up a victory.
The two-match road trip starting at the end of September is daunting.
(AFP PHOTO / MARTIN BUREAU)
Winning in Bloemfontein is arguably a more likely prospect than bagging victory in Mendoza.
Ludicrously, Argentina took their ‘home’ Rugby Championship clash against the Wallabies to Twickenham last year after a political fracas, and were beaten.
The Wallabies won’t get any such favours this October. The Estadio Malvinas Argentinas Stadium will be hostile.
Does Cheika get the three Rugby Championship wins he potentially needs to keep his job?
I sense Wallabies fans can cop losses to the All Blacks juggernaut at the moment, but a defeat to the Springboks at home might be too tough to swallow.
For Cheika, the clash against the Boks at nib Stadium in Perth on September 9 appears pivotal if he’s to remain coach of the Wallabies for the end-of-season Spring tour.
Tony H
Roar Pro
Really, bad form to lash out at the guy trying to kill you? In my world, that's the time when you have the right to take him down.
Fionn
Guest
"I’m pretty certain that after last year’s mediocre England series and the RC that M.Cheika plotted another course and started to listen and take advice from his assistants. I certainly hope so. ?" As do I, mate, as do I! And for what it is worth, I am expecting a much better performing team this year than last year. Cheika proved in 2015 that when he gets some confidence, he can really make the team click and believe in him :)
PeterK
Roar Guru
Hodge does not have a short tactical kicking game at all, all he can do is kick very long with a long wind up, and kick long penalties or conversions. So no not equipped at all for 10 I doubt if his hands would ever be good enough for a 10.
PeterK
Roar Guru
agree with all this. Foley lacks vision and reading of the game. His kicking game is poor.
PeterK
Roar Guru
timbo - just because you approach selections from a point of bias against some teams and for players from the team you support, others are able to do it objectively, so no need to project your own faults onto others.
PeterK
Roar Guru
I have zero bias towards tah players in regards to wallaby selection. None. In the article naming the squad I have a post that in general too many tahs have been selected for wallabies probably because most coaches originate as tahs. As an example I indiciate how each individual selection may be justified it seems every 50/50 choice has gone their way and is illustrated how 6/8 of their pack was chosen when their pack has not been dominant or even the best aust pack. So because I think Folau is unfairly maligned or is a better f/b than dhp that makes me biased. Or that factually Hooper has the most turnovers. A lot of people do think Hooper is a very good no 7. Did you know I thought pooper was wrong structurally , that all last year I wanted Pocock (a better 7) at 7 and Hooper on the bench. Or preferred QC over Foley. Only this year sadly with QC's very poor form would choose the very limited Foley. I don't mind your clear bias against tahs. What I do mind is you pretend to be a wallabies supporter but treat the wallaby team, squad with such disrespect, and the wallaby coach. He has coached the tahs to a premiership, the only coach to do so. Transformed them from soft entitled wannabe's (and they are slipping back to that). Coached to a rwc final, best and equal result ince 2003 when eddy jones had far far superior talent to work with. He must surely know something about rugby despite both our disagreements re his selections , game tactics or methods. With all your superior knowledge and attitude I am sure you would never have coached them to the 2015 rwc final.
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
I may have been a little argumentative using the clown reference but Chieka is the sole selector and responsible for the game plan, and ultimately the outcome. He chooses injured, out of form, out of position and/or under skilled players and then concocts an unsuccessful plan juggling players and positions to attempt cater for them. Most of them are Tahs but I include my own injured DHP on this list as well. Dempsey is a Ghost, Phipps is out of form, Surely Peter, even a one-eyed Tah's fan such as yourself should be able to concede these points, Highlander has just written a brilliant article on why Folau shouldn't be playing at fullback which you have already feebly tried to defend without logical argument nor success. http://www.theroar.com.au/2017/06/02/one-structural-flaw-wallabies-need-fix-right-now/ Next you we be telling me Hooper is the master of the ruck clean out and a genius in the Maul or that those skills aren't needed from a forward. The Bias is with you sir! Take off the Sky Blue Monocle and look at the rest of the talent in Australia, and there is lots of it. Sure, I am a little biassed but open minded enough to see Gordon and Hanigan as our potential future and that Foley is the best we've got at 10. Horowitz and Kellaway are/were doing good work behind the scenes and getting no love from commentators nor fans. See if you can find some good things to say about players in other teams, assuming you have seen more than a highlights package.
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
Rugby WA have just come out and said that they aren't seeking a spill. I am skeptical, it would be bad form for a team with it's head in the noose to lash out at it's executioner. Let's wait and see.
ThugbyFan
Guest
Hi Cooper, for Project Hodge to have any hope then he needs to play 5/8 for a whole season in SR. His field kicking is not terribly accurate and he wears shoes on his hands. But he is class with his long kicks, defence and running with the ball (if he catches it). His passing, especially to his left under pressure, is sometimes a mite wayward. If the WB coaching folks are going into such long term planning then an easier route to success is to improve B.Foley's field vision and kicking game. I almost cry at Tahs' matches with the number of times he boots a high ball straight into a winger or fb's arms with the kicks being far too long for any chasers to be able to put pressure on the catchers. Crunch and ruck the catchers early and they are not a danger in broken play, let them come back at you and you are at the mercy of speed merchants especially if your defence moves up all over the shop. I don't know if Foley does these kicks under coach's orders (D.Gibson and M.Cheika) or is incapable of seeing the space and putting the ball up to land there. I actually suspect a bit of the former as his field kicking to wingers and chasers blew Wales off the park in last years EOYT.
ThugbyFan
Guest
Hi Fionn and you have mainly expanded on my 5th paragraph (I did try to keep the negatives mild). The Pooper worked quite nicely in 2015. I remember coming out of a restaurant on a Not-Hot August Night and whooping it up when the news told me the WB had beaten the AB at Sydney. It worked OK in the RWC2015 except unfortunately by the RWC2015 final, them dreaded AB heathens had figured out its flaws and how to combat it. Pretty soon, every team knew the Pooper killed the effectiveness of our rucks and set pieces. As you point out, it really messed up the rhythm of the forwards. And I am flummoxed to see why they don't mix their game up by putting in the occasional kick and ORGANISED chase to counter rush defences. I'm pretty certain that after last year's mediocre England series and the RC that M.Cheika plotted another course and started to listen and take advice from his assistants. I certainly hope so. :)
ThugbyFan
Guest
Thanks Peter and I pretty much agree with your 2nd paragraph. That NZ paper of Michael Cheika "clown coach" article is typical of the rubbish put in the Daily Yellgraph here in Sydney and other R.Merde-och rags from the UK. However I find it totally disrespectful when posters on the Roar, who will never get within a bulls roar (pun intended) of the coaching group of a SR or International side, continuously call him "coach clown". I usually immediately stop reading their post, as I know its going to be one-eyed inane gibberish.
englishbob
Guest
I could just about see nz being beaten in bled 3, Brisbane has usually been tight and the closest performances recently have been coming in the third bled 2012/2014/2016 the ab's will have had a crunching tour with the lions(and the franchises) the RC to contend with. Unlikely but possible, there is zero chance the wallabies win in nz though and unlikely in Sydney . Ever the optimist
Fionn
Guest
You reckon he had all the best players, Rebellion? Pocock and Moore in the forwards, along with Vickerman and, who, Samo? Cooper, Beale, Genia, O'Connor, Giteau, AAC in the backs I guess.
Jameswm
Guest
Carter is a yard slower than a statue and can't catch a cold. We can't settle for that.
Rebellion
Guest
John O'Neill gambled by offering Deans a new contract before the RWC2011 and it blew up in his face. It's absurd to compare Deans' record with those that followed - he had all of the best players coming through in their prime and managed to either lose control or alienate 2/3rds of them. He was a disaster and O'Neill's legacy in his second stint was defined by this ludicrous decision.
Fionn
Guest
Deans sucked after the 2011 RC. I don't know what happened, maybe he lost the locker room, maybe the game moved on?
soapit
Guest
must be quite a conspiracy then for someone with such great results to get sacked.. he did well for 4 years and got retained off the back of that. after 2011 he did poorly and was sacked in 2013. point is you dont normally get long if youre not delivering what the public wants
Cooper Morrison
Guest
Please - Project Hodge - the next wallaby Five Eighth. Kicking - check, defence - check, attacking potency - check Think larkham
Bring Back...?
Guest
We need a hard working, non flashy tight 5. Carter fits the bill. His ball carries aren't great, but none of our players are perfect.
Fionn
Guest
You could be right, mate. I love Carter as a Brumbies man, and he's serving us as a very good leader in a year in which the term has needed one. He is excellent in the set piece, but he just is not physical enough and doesn't carry well enough. I think he is a very good Super Rugby player, but not necessarily a very good Wallaby. I will reserve judgment, however, perhaps he will do a fantastic job in June and hopefully the RC. I wish him all the best and I hope he proves my fears were mistaken :) .