Call a life guard, the A-League is treading water

By Stuart Thomas / Expert

Vigorous discussions around the A-League often have their origins in opinion on an interpretation of raw statistics. The numbers are tweaked and twisted, man-handled and wrenched until a view or slant on the issue at hand is reached.

Serve is returned with an alternative take on the numbers and an array of mitigating factors, reasons and excuses that all play a role in the conclusions made.

Everything from weather, team success, the presence of other sports through the summer, the FFA, money and fans are all listed as influential factors around football in Australia and some of the battles it has fought. Every now and again the old chestnuts of bigotry, racism and discrimination are thrown into the mix.

As something of a start-up, the A-League has grappled and jostled for market share and traction and appears here to stay, but how did season twelve measure up?

#1 Goals
It is somewhat absurd to say that football is about scoring goals, however, as trite as it might sound, goal production will always be a fundamental driver of interest and the entertainment value of the game.

Whilst many tight, skilful and gripping scoreless draws are fought out weekly, all over the world, low goal numbers cannot be sustained.

The non-footballing section of our community jumps over a scoreless draw like a tabloid on a headline.

The A-League has seen a steady incline in average goals per game since an historical low (2.01) in 2007-08. The last three seasons, the figure has sat around three with the spike being in 2015-16 when the nets shook 3.12 times per game. The 2016-17 figure of 3.03 is a continuation of the trend towards positive football.

(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)

Officials willing to administer penalties and protect the stars of the league with the use of yellow cards adds to goal production, as do the managers with their overall approach to the contest.

The quality of some of the men up front correlates to these figures as well and avoiding stodgy defensive football is something the league is doing well right now.

#2 Australian Content
Whilst the international stars such as Milos Ninkovic, Besart Berisha, Diego Castro and Bruno Fornaroli show us clearly that we need them here to bolster our stocks, the role Australians have to play in our top flight cannot be underestimated.

Having Tim Cahill on home soil was always going to create a stir and despite many feeling that the numerical impact on crowds hasn’t warranted his salary, it is essential for the league to have our Socceroos here performing week to week.

As much as we enjoy hearing of Aaron Mooy, Mass Luongo and Tom Rogic doing great things overseas, having players like Alex Wilkinson, James Troisi and Matt McKay here is key.

Without quality home grown talent on display, a hollowness can develop around the identity of the national team.

English football suffers from this, with the connection between the grounded reality of young, local footballers being far removed and diluted by the exorbitant salaries of the international stars raiding their shores and pockets.

The emergence of young Australian talent is vital, even considering that many will indeed be snapped up by wealthier clubs looking for the golden nugget.

A continuous supply of James Jeggo, Ryan McGowan and Riley McGree types is paramount, as is the experienced veteran returning to home shores.

#3 Attendance
Twelve thousand six hundred and fifty people, on average, attend each A-League match. This figure mirrors the numbers for the 2012-13 season. In between, there was a spike in 2013-14 and a steady drop since.

Most of the totals are within a fairly narrow ballpark. A few peaks and troughs caused by international stars, poor scheduling, very out of form teams and disgruntled fans, all balance out to reveal one simple fact.

Despite all good intention, the supporter base doesn’t appear to be growing or reflecting participation rates and the general interest in football.

The arguments and solutions around this are complex, divisive and lacking definition. What is known, is that luring more people, especially those young kids gazing at an EPL poster on their wall each night as they lay in bed, should be the number one concern for the league.

It is at the heart of sport and whilst some codes, contests and events can dismiss the paying attendee in preference to monumental television rights deals, Australian football cannot. It is a tribal, passionate and fan based game that still struggles to achieve the crossover between the football lover and the potential A-League fan.

(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)

Solving this will change sport in Australia as we know it. Finding the formula will prove challenging.

#4 Media Coverage
As a Foxtel subscriber, I must continually remind myself that I am in a minority. Watching each and every game per week is a luxury not shared by all. Outside the long-term commitment and outstanding promotion of the game through the cable giant, is everyone else getting their fair share?

Unfortunately, it appears not. Whilst there was something amazing about the Grand Final figures and they should be celebrated, free to air television, radio and newspaper coverage show little sign of an increased interest in the league.

Outside the epic culmination of the season, A-League news was still ensconced deep in the print media’s papers, rarely seeing the light of day on the back page. Television programs took their little pot shots over a bit of pathetic simulation and free to air matches were viewed by some, but never many.

In terms of traction, there doesn’t appear to have been much made. The arrival of channel Ten on the scene could be a game changer. Personally, I hope it is.

#5 Kids
Seeing netball knocked of its seemingly stable perch by the numbers of young women playing football pleased me no end. Being involved in both games, netball sat like a grinning Cheshire cat, sipping milk from an endless bowl that seemed to constantly replenish itself.

The growth in boys’ football continues and as the standard of instruction improves, academies are turning out players of real quality.

Sadly, most kids in Australia are still La Liga and EPL focussed. The average fan will always keep an eye on these leagues as they showcase the cream of the crop but the day Australian kids truly care about the A-League will be a tipping point for sport in this country.

In my day to day dealing with kids in football, the majority still perceive the A-League as a joke. Not just as being a few rungs below their favourite leagues mind you, but a joke!

It would be okay if they just weren’t interested or had no allegiance, but to openly laugh at the league is not a good sign for us all.

There is the odd Sydney FC or Mariners jersey on the training landscape yet Real Madrid, Barcelona and Liverpool still dominate and for good reason. Season twelve didn’t appear to make any significant inroads in this area.

Moreover, the season just passed appears to have been a treading of the waters in many ways. Much success, yet mostly a consolidation, as recent seasons have also been.

The stunning finish was merely that and with expansion on the horizon, something might need to change in order for the game to take a firm, forward step in the next few years.

The Crowd Says:

2017-06-23T02:51:27+00:00

josh

Guest


In 2 years Western Sydney Wanderers did more for football in the biggest football region in the country than Sydney FC could have done in 100, using them as an example here just doesn't work. I see more WSW jerseys than any other team, the A League is number 1 here.

2017-06-21T01:16:03+00:00

TheMagnificent11

Roar Guru


It doesn't because college football is already a multi-billion dollar industry. I'm just drawing parallels between interest in computer games and a higher standard league can lead to increased interest in a lower standard league.

2017-06-21T00:18:05+00:00

AR

Guest


Ok. Genuine questions... How do you contribute to college football's TV ratings? And more broadly, does a purported increase in Australian viewers (either through Australian cable providers or digital streaming) increase the value of college football broadcasting in real terms?

2017-06-20T19:48:44+00:00

TheMagnificent11

Roar Guru


No, but there's no pro league here in Australia. Also, I contribute to college football's TV ratings, which is one of the components used to measure the growth of the game (and is one of the components used for measurement in this blog).

2017-06-20T14:18:17+00:00

Midfielder

Guest


HHHHmmmmm I have my own thoughts and before I start agree as to where we are and before the cricket bats come out I acknowledge things could be better on a number of fronts....& FFA have created a lot of their own problems. Having said all this I think the constant criticism of FFA and Gallop has research absurd levels. Analysis and business thinking seems to me anyway to e overtaken with populism ... Its becoming very cynical, we have a structure with many many many many players yet we focus all our disappointment almost to one one as if everyone else is pure white and are all saints whereas the evil FFA are demons. I don't want to defend any particular issue as that is pointless, simply to point out that facts are nots being used or not known or simply ignored. Caltex sorry to pick on you its not my intention to have a go at you but I will highlight with a simple example. We all know Caltex likes and has lots of time for SBS.... we also know that Caltex does not like Frank Lowy and has often criticises Frank lowy. For the record in the prior media deal ie.e the 40 million dollar deal, FFA insisted on going FTA bit no station would take them up and Fox were reducing their payment because of the FTA.... Frank Lowy went to Canberra and sort a special grant to be paid to FFA for the broadcast rights... The grant was 8 million per year I think... to pay for broadcast rights and to fund Football special programs. The government wanted it to be the ABC, so did the ABC as it was a huge amount. Frank said it had to be SBS . So the only reason SBS could fund and produce the broadcast was because of first Frank Lowy getting the special grant and second ensuring it was on SBS. This is hardly the work of a person who does not like SBS . Very small and maybe simplistic example... but there are lots of people who need to lift their game and its becoming to easy to mask over other peoples errors and blame Gallop for everything when in fact a lot of what FFA do is good ... its not all bad .. the saying throwing the baby out with the bath water may apply.

2017-06-20T13:01:49+00:00

AR

Guest


Do you now go to watch the local American football games playing in your local city?

AUTHOR

2017-06-20T12:40:44+00:00

Stuart Thomas

Expert


Well said Waz, I pondered on the treading water analogy and went with it because whilst a lifeguard might not be immediately required, they should be standing by in case the subject starts to get a little stressed. Not a latte drinker myself but do enjoy decaf, soy, flat whites and a full gluten free diet. Copped it many times from roarers and rightly so, as a Sydney wanker.

AUTHOR

2017-06-20T12:35:42+00:00

Stuart Thomas

Expert


You are spot on Stevo. There is still a detachment between our kids as fans and our local league. One day it will cease to exist, but gee it is frustrating getting there.

2017-06-20T11:07:47+00:00

TheMagnificent11

Roar Guru


Probably, but exposure to football is exposure to football. I got exposed to American football by playing Madden. I now watch NFL, but also college American football, a lower level. So, interest in European football can lead to interest in the A-League.

2017-06-20T10:48:03+00:00

AGO74

Guest


A lot of kids first experience of a (usually) European team actually comes from playing games via their Xbox or PlayStation and not watching via fox/Optus which is where the la liga epl champions league and our beloved a-league are all predominantly shown. When a kid has a bias towards a euro side via Xbox etc this can then influence the actual football they watch when they turn in the TV.

2017-06-20T08:47:51+00:00

Waz

Roar Rookie


He'll be gone to the ARU as soon as they get rid of their own dead-wood CEO

2017-06-20T08:46:23+00:00

sepr

Guest


You don't need advertising AT ALL. You NEED to give local clubs the chance to GET PROMOTED. That will bring the fans. Everyone likes to follow a bandwagon. Especially smaller cities and towns can build up super mad fan bases WHEN their club is moving up. That is the key. Introduce promotion - relegation and the fans WILL COME.

2017-06-20T08:19:41+00:00

AR

Guest


"I would say spectator numbers in Australia for football are very much a creature of scheduling, weather grim transport to venues in Sydney and Brisbane and increasingly cost." Isn't scheduling, weather, public transport and cost factors for all sports in Australia? ...and for all non sporting events for that matter?

AUTHOR

2017-06-20T07:42:22+00:00

Stuart Thomas

Expert


Nemesis, can't wait for your thoughts on my article tomorrow. What expansion will actually look like, if we actually get there.

AUTHOR

2017-06-20T07:41:00+00:00

Stuart Thomas

Expert


I have written about this in an article that should see light tomorrow. What does it look like when we do expand? Some wacky ideas but no point dying wondering. Football needs to be aggressive, Gallop leans to the conservative position too often, in fact, always.

AUTHOR

2017-06-20T07:38:25+00:00

Stuart Thomas

Expert


Agreed AR. After the move by Ten and the IMG announcement, his TV deal looks smaller by the day.

2017-06-20T06:58:38+00:00

Nemesis

Guest


"The fluctuations in the attendances over the whole season are not statistically significant." How is that relevant to anything I wrote? Or, is it just an additional observation?

2017-06-20T06:44:38+00:00

albatross

Roar Pro


Simon Kuper has written extensively on spectator churn. People stop attending football matches (and other sports) for all sorts of reasons. I would say spectator numbers in Australia for football are very much a creature of scheduling, weather grim transport to venues in Sydney and Brisbane and increasingly cost. The fluctuations in the attendances over the whole season are not statistically significant.

2017-06-20T05:58:31+00:00

Neil

Guest


I think we over analyse too much.

2017-06-20T05:33:43+00:00

Nemesis

Guest


I should add, the ones that attend nowadays, most often, bring 1-2 kids with them. Obviously, some kick-off times are not as friendly for kids attending. So, even though we've lost quite a few of our adult attendees, overall numbers have increased slightly, in my football group. Maybe the same trend has been occurring widely?

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