After a long wait the AFL have finally locked in a new CBA to govern the league from now until the end of 2022, and the impact this deal will have on trading and free agency this October is big.
To start with, those many players who have cited the wait for a new collective bargaining agreement as a reason for holding off contract talks will now have no reason not to make some progress, and over the next few weeks we’ll see those who are genuinely ready to re-sign separated from those just using it to pass some time.
Two elite young players who would be the target of just about every club in the land if publicly known to be on the table who have used that very line are Adelaide’s Jake Lever – yesterday included in my mid-season All-Australian team! – and Collingwood’s Brodie Grundy.
There has been little to no talk about both of these players among the year’s AFL trade rumours and that generally indicates that the industry at large expects them to re-sign with their current clubs, which I suspect they almost certainly will.
Some other players to keep an eye on here would be a trio of Bombers in Joe Daniher, David Zaharakis and Darcy Parish, as well as Jack Billings at St Kilda, Steven May at Gold Coast, Zak Jones at Sydney, and Daniel Rioli at Richmond.
Again, my current expectation would be that all these players will opt to re-sign with their current clubs – with May and Jones probably the most likely to consider other offers, but still very likely to stay – but if we’ve heard nothing of new contracts within the next month or so it’ll be time to raise eyebrows.
(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
Of course, contract watch will also continue for big free agents Nat Fyfe and Dustin Martin, as well as the out-of-contract Josh Kelly.
These are they players who, if the move clubs this year, stand to benefit the most from a salary cap that has increased by 20 per cent overnight.
There’s a lot of maths involved in a new CBA, and there are reasons that I’m a writer rather than a maths teacher, but the short version of what’s happening is that the amount clubs are able to spend on players has rapidly shot up, and the amount they spend on what they’ve currently got may take some time to catch up.
Some players had ‘uplift clauses’ in their current contracts that will see them automatically get the 20 per cent pay rise, but not all do, and it has been said on Footy Classified that Adelaide and West Coast in particular have not included them in any of their contracts.
Clubs still need to pay 95 per cent of what the new salary cap is, so those who don’t meet that amount through their current payments and uplift clauses will need to renegotiate some of their existing contracts. Of course, that could be a simple as heavily front-loading some of the long-term deals their star players are on.
It also means that clubs who were already running at the lower scale of the salary cap this year – like St Kilda, Carlton or North Melbourne – or clubs who are set to say goodbye to some veterans at the end of the year – like Essendon or Hawthorn – could have enough salary cap room banked to be very aggressive this year.
That, of course, is where the likes of Fyfe, Martin and Kelly, as the most desirable prospects on the market, come in. All three are likely to be on deals worth $1 million a season next year, and it’s entirely possible that they could be on much more.
With big dollars flying around too, one move could start a big chain reaction. Say Fyfe is signed away from Fremantle – the Dockers use the cap room to go shopping and land Jason Johannisen and Mitch McGovern, prompting the Bulldogs to look at the market, while Adelaide have more to spend on luring Bryce Gibbs, and so on, et cetera.
Player movement has never been busier than it is right now, and clubs the league over now view luring players from other teams as an essential part of list-building.
With that kind of philosophy in place and more cash to splash than ever before, it seems a given that this October will be a bustling one.
(AAP Image/Travis Anderson)
Lastly, a few little skerricks of rumour that are not CBA-related.
It was said last week that West Coast are targetting Gold Coast’s Brandon Matera – no shock given his uncle Peter’s stature at the club, and they have been linked with him often in the past.
Matera is out of contract at the end of this year, and although he’s been in good form lately, he has been in and out at the Suns a lot under Rodney Eade, so might be open to a move. Gold Coast have a number of similar players and may not be too aggrieved to give him up.
Jacob Hopper has also been linked to some rival clubs for the first time as well, with North Melbourne, Carlton, Collingwood and Essendon all said to be in the mix for his services. The Giants re-signed a number of young players recently, but out-of-contract Hopper was not one of them.
It would be fascinating to see how a deal would work out if North were to lure both Kelly and Hopper to the club, with the Roos giving up their first picks for two years in a row likely being a given and even then probably not enough to satisfy the Giants.
That said, it’s possibly that North’s interest in him is largely as a back-up in the event that other pursuits fall through, and given Carlton have in recent years attracted enough GWS talent to justify building a four-lane freeway between the two clubs, it wouldn’t surprise if they’re leading the pack.
Mattician6x6
Guest
Ah the crux of the issue at hand I'm a west coast supporter.
Don Freo
Guest
Jon calling for the dismissal of Sandilands is "finger on the pulse"? Every comment is preceded by "I am an original member.."; "I lived with Paul Haselby, therefore I know."; "I played footy so I have authority"... Then every comment is anti-Freo. I can see why a WC person would respond.
Mattician6x6
Guest
Just asking the question don. Jon unlike others seems to have finger on pulse in regards to Fremantle football. Just so you know I don't head to the Newport to get my info or opinions i just cross paths with a lot of varying people with varying opinions.
Jon boy
Guest
PAUL Will be part of the AFL System Yes
Don Freo
Guest
Pendlebury is taking someone's place too. Dangerfield took a kid's place. What's Ablett doing still playing? Can you believe Nick Reiwoldt actually dares to provide leadership and skill at the Saints? Why would Paddy Ryder still be playing. Apparently there is a tall kid in South Australia.
Don Freo
Guest
That's the thing...people who claim to "know" because they knew someone's parents as a kid or others who claim to know because they had a conversation at a pub are simply passing on an opinion without base that has, as its source, the bottom of a beer glass. JonBoy's absolute fact versus Matt6x6's pub chat certainty. Absolute truth...just different truth.
Don Freo
Guest
You have already lost that one Jon Boy. There is no one but you who thinks Sandi should finish. You will be right in about 3 or 4 years time.
Mattician6x6
Guest
You believe haselby has got it to be part of AFL systems Jon boy? I heard some differing reports from ppl I know as to his coaching ability.
Jon boy
Guest
Minimum of $ 250-000 sitting in rehab. Taking up Space of a youngster for 2017-18
Jon boy
Guest
Don....I am glad that you believe Voss will coach again which is very likely and as i said PAUL will be a assistant to him I am not going into Detail And i said i hope its at FREO ......but unlikely . Also agree with you on Logue and Kersting who could do with a confidence booster at Peel We will never agree on the future of the other two but i will prevail
Don Freo
Guest
You haven't been watching their development at Peel? Darcy is dominating the ruck to the degree he is being elevated to Freo's AFL team. Logue...in his first year...has already has played 4 games for Freo and is playing in a number of positions (including midfield) at Peel that gives a nod to his flexibility. He will also play more AFL games. More development than almost any club apart from Carlton who have no good older players to keep them out...and they are doing worse than Freo. Have a look at the selections. You'll see all their names regularly...plus the kids that you don't even know exist. You probably think Cox is Dean Cox and that Hughes is Merv or Kim. Paul Weller is an old rocker...this is Lachie. Karl Langdon is calling footy. This is Ed.
Mattician6x6
Guest
Oh yes don I misheard all the criticism because that's what I do. Sorry these facts disrupt your narrative. Former player in media critical of former club, nothing new get used to it.
Don Freo
Guest
What are you complaining about? You want him out. Sandi won't be costing Freo much at all. No wastage there.
Don Freo
Guest
If he said that, he's wrong. You only have to look at the team to see it is young. You don't need to be a 5 times Glendinning Medalist to work that one out. Blakely would be leading the Doig Medal right now...him or Neale. Not a lot of reliance on old age there. Fyfe, Hambling and Brad Hill would be next. All 25 or under. It is absolutely certain that you heard that incorrectly.
Jon boy
Guest
The BIG Sandi OUT again what a waste of Time,Money and Space. TURFTOE again Ballantine will be next When will They Learn??
anon
Roar Pro
It's bizarre and I get some macabre pleasure observing this trainwreck of a club. It's like slowing down as you pass a traffic accident to take it all in. You can't look away. It's almost as though Lyon is sabotaging the club long term on purpose. Either that or he's lost his mind. I can't believe people still defend him. Guys like Sam Collins, Logue, Sean Darcy, these are guys that will be crucial for Freo in another couple of seasons. Almost ZERO development of them in a rebuilding year. A year completely wasted on players we already know what they can do and what they're capable of.
Mattician6x6
Guest
Haselby has been vocal that the idea that freo is a young side is fallacy and are still a team relying on the old guard to much.
Don Freo
Guest
In weeks one and two. They know...and have said...that you can't pick players that are injured. Some of the plodders only reappeared when young guys like Langdon and Balic went out. Logue was not replaced by an old tall. If you are suggesting he should replace Johnson, you are mad. I'd be happy with rotating Logue with Kersten. They have rotated Hughes with Tucker. These moves have not been criticised by McPharlin or Haselby. Their only recent issue (and it came from Haselby not McPharlin) was Griffin failing and wondering whether it was time for Darcy. At the same time, he said he understood why Griff was given a chance to stand up.
Jon boy
Guest
matt.....Correct about Haselby And Mcpharlin glad someone heard it DON FREO Reckons it is not True
Don Freo
Guest
Voss should coach again...he's a gem. Hase developed the youth at South Freo really well. He'd be an excellent assistant. Nonetheless, you make no point there apart from to suggest they'd be a good team. You still don't discard great players because one day someone else might be great too. Sandi had to wait on a rookie list and turned into one of the great ruckmen of the last 50 years and the second best of this century. Logue can wait...and he will benefit from it. Peel has played 2 games in the past 4 weeks. He needs to play at Peel for a few more. I'd be happy if he plays for Freo this weekend but there is no cost to anyone if he doesn't. Only benefit. By the way, living in a town for 50 years doesn't offer much more information. Hase is not yet 50 himself and he moved away from that town when he was 18 years old.