The Big Questions: Two very different June Test experiences

The June Internationals are about to get very, very serious on the eastern side of the Tasman, while on the western side, things are already very, very serious for very, very different reasons.

Digger and I have served up a trans-Tasman edition of this week’s Big Questions, and as always, we can’t wait for you to have your say, too.

And don’t forget, Super Rugby tipping resumes next week. I found the other half of Round 15 down behind the couch…

What do you see as the key area of difference between the All Blacks and Lions, and why it will win the series between the respective sides? (from Digger)

Harry Jones
“The metrics in the gym are probably even; maybe the Lions have more pace, power, and precision. The big difference is proven success at home under excellent adaptable leaders, which translates to confident decisions made at speed and with clarity, within any style of rugby that develops.

“The Lions do not expect to win the series. Warren Gatland knows he will never have Steve Hansen’s job.

“The All Blacks have all grown up playing All Black-style rugby in brutally fast and skilled derbies, routinely against South Africans who were almost always the second or third best nation over the last 15 years (and every bit as physical as these Lions), against tricky Wallabies, and recently, unpredictably Argies.

“So, they are better prepared than these Lions, who almost always lost against those same Saffas (or recruited them) and Aussies; and Gatland never showed the nous of ‘Shag’, even in his best seasons.”

Nobes
“The All Blacks will beat the Lions.

“The team from the North have showed that their set piece is very good, have a good pressure defence, and their kickers do the rest.

“But if the men in black can move the ball around, they will really damage the Lions’ defence. The best hope for the Lions is that the game is played under wet conditions and with a slippery ball where they feel more comfortable, because the game has to be played at slower pace.”

Digger
“I have haggled this within my mind for some time and for all the talk around set piece and skill levels, kicking here and defence, I think the major difference between the two sides once the dust has settled, will be the support play. And that is in favour of the All Blacks.

“The Lions have become better and better as the tour has worn on, including in their attacking play. But for so many breaks made, it continues to break down at crucial moments, the last pass not sticking or noticeably, to me anyhow, no-one to pass too.

“This is an area the All Blacks tend to excel in terms of not dying with the ball and in a series which is shaping up to be as tight as this one, chances will be few and far between.

“The ruthless nature of the New Zealand team to nail those key moments on attack will, I think prove vital in the end.”

Brett
It’s a simple demarcation: New Zealand undoubtedly has the best attack in the game, but the British and Irish Lions on tour have nicely developed a defensive game that could yet prove to be quite effective.

If the Lions can pull off their rush defence well, then they can take the space away from Aaron Smith and Beauden Barrett, and that will definitely limit their ability to create opportunities for their outside men. Equally though, if their defence holds strong, and they limit the All Blacks’ offloading game, then that’s their second-phase game slowed down, too.

And that’s going to be the key. If the Lions can slow the game down to their preferred pace, then they’ll limit broken field opportunities and therefore, one of the All Blacks’ great scoring weapons.

But! And there always is a ‘but’…

If the Lions’ defence is out of kilter, or if even just one of their key defenders is only half a metre off the pace, then that’s enough of an opportunity for New Zealand to exploit, and as we know, create opportunities when none seemingly exist.

Conversely, the All Blacks’ all-round game is such that they’ll be looking to turn any given moment into attack, meaning the Lions have to limit their own mistakes, and transition well themselves.

That’s probably the prime point of concern for the Lions; no-one in world rugby transitions from defence to attack as well as the All Blacks, and that’s a major reason why they’re comfortable favourites for the series.

The Lions might be able to pull it all together on one of the three nights, but I doubt they can do it twice and take the series.

Have the Wallabies hit rock bottom yet, and what is the most likely finishing position for The Rugby Championship this season? (from Brett)

Harry
“No. Australia’s world ranking will decline unless better hookers and props are found before the tougher Tests begin.

“The Boklings are growing up, as better assistant coaches and smarter selections take effect, and even Half-Haircut Elton Jantjies plays like he cares.

“The Wallaby second row has a solution (Rory Arnold) and the back row can improve. The halves will not be charged down as much, surely (?!), and maybe the clearance kicks won’t be taken by little Bernard Foley.

“But I don’t know what the fix is for the six front rowers. Tom Robertson was folded like a deck chair. Tatafu Polota-Nau seemed like he had smoked peyote. Allan Alaalatoa needed a beer. Stephen Moore is past it. Scott Sio and Sekope Kepu are just okay.

“With Malcolm Marx and Steven Kitshoff and Coenie Oosthuizen and Co. hunting a No.2 ranking, and a brutal end-of-year tour awaiting with redoubtable front rows waiting to make the Aussie piggies squeal, I see a fifth or sixth ranking probable by 2018.

“Unless Israel Folau can keep playing AFL and landing in the try zone (but should have kept his feet to make it easier to convert for the ice-cold Iceman).

“Australia will finish third in the Rugby Championship; with two home losses (to an ominous New Zealand and improving South Africa) and two wins over a rotting, strangely-disaffected Argentina, who will go winless.”

Nobes
“The Wallabies, in my view, are suffering in the drivers of the game.

“Their set piece is ok. The scrum is not great but it is ok, and the lineout usually gives good quality ball, but the problem starts from there.

“The scrumhalf and flyhalf are the problem to be fixed as soon as possible. Then you have great and different players to use in the centres, wings, and fullback, but if you do not feed them with quality balls there is not much they can do.

“In defence, the situation changes; I really miss Scott Fardy, and Michael Hooper cannot do everything. The props and hooker are not the best in the breakdown and cannot slow the ball down. Plus, they lack in mobility.

“I am not sure how the scrumhalf and flyhalf issue can be fixed really, we must have faith that Will Genia will gear up to southern hemisphere rugby style after his long season in Europe, and we should trust that Bernard Foley can make up fast for the lack of playing time due to his concussions issues, and start providing the backs with the type of balls they need to exploit their game.

“I also think that Karmichael Hunt is great addition and gives options and positive leadership for the team.

“In terms of results the Wallabies probably will lose to the All Blacks, split games with the Springboks, and beat Los Pumas. So, they will either end up second or third in The Rugby Championship.

(QRU Sportography)

Digger
“I have no idea how to answer this, as I think the Wallabies are simply suffering from plenty that is going on in the Australian scene at the moment. It has to be a difficult time; I suspect the real question would be to change Wallabies to Australian rugby.

“In short however, I would say no, there is a hell of a lot further to fall if you want to look at it that way, ask South Africa for a start. And considering that the Wallabies have lost to Scotland before on their own shores and Scotland’s own form and results from their domestic season, it can hardly be viewed as a huge shock. There have been plenty of changes made to the Wallaby side in terms of personal and everything just doesn’t happen overnight, though I can understand the frustration from many fans, especially considering the uncomplimentary view of the overall opposition for this June window from some quarters.

“Is it all that bad? No, plenty of what was displayed from the Scotland match can be fixed, and I do firmly believe the Wallabies were their own worst enemy in many aspects. That’s not desirable of course but it’s not time to run to the hills just yet. This coming match against Italy will speak volumes in terms of a response from the Wallabies, though with the current mood, the best they can probably achieve is ‘that was expected.’

“I think the Wallabies are in for a third-place finish right now based on the form I have seen so far from the other sides in this window. South Africa look a little more dangerous to me right now, and I would suggest Argentina, in terms of the Pumas are in a worse position right now.”

Brett
Oh, God, I hope so…

We won’t learn much out of this weekend against Italy, and so all lessons from the Scotland loss won’t be fully known until August 19; the first Bledisloe Cup fixture of the year. On current form, that could be sobering.

I’ll just re-iterate the points I made on Tuesday. The Wallabies have to ensure they get something out of the loss in Sydney, otherwise they’re just going through the motions and will deserve the thumpings that would come their way in 2017 as a result.

(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)

If the criticisms this week have stung, or have hit a roar nerve, then we need to see the positive reaction to that. If that means the players are more aware of their skill execution, or are more conscious of what they must do at that very moment, then that’s great.

If it means the coaches review their training methods, and the game plan, and for goodness sake, the defensive set-up, then that’s a welcome result as well.

But if, on August 19 and for the rest of The Rugby Championship, the Wallabies turn out the same sort of sludge-like performance, then the Wallabies will be faced with tens of thousands of Jack Quigleys, and they’ll all deserve a phone call.

If they get it right, I still like the think they can finish second in TRC, but even having not watched a minute of their series with France, I know that the Springboks’ house is resembling order again.

Second is possible for the Wallabies, but after last weekend, so is fourth; it’s up to the players and coaches to determine their preference.