With Round 16 of the NRL completed over the weekend, I can now officially start the count-down to finals football.
There are only ten weeks until finals, which means that if your team is in the top eight, they only need to hold onto their place for ten more weeks. If your team is outside the top eight, then your team has just ten more opportunities to prove that they are worthy of playing in the finals.
It’s now also close enough to the end of the season that I’m comfortable enough to admit that there were some things that I was wrong about before a footy was kicked off.
I was wrong about the Canberra Raiders winning the Premiership in 2017. There were also some incorrect inclusions and notable exclusions from my top eight.
At the start of the year, my top eight (in no particular order) looked like this:
Canberra Raiders
Penrith Panthers
Melbourne Storm
North Queensland Cowboys
Brisbane Broncos
Gold Coast Titans
Parramatta Eels
New Zealand Warriors
It almost seems laughable that I had the Gold Coast Titans there. What’s even funnier is that I left the Cronulla Sharks and Sydney Roosters out.
With only ten rounds to go, I think it’s safe to say that there are only ten teams remaining that can make the eight.
If you’re a Wests Tigers, South Sydney Rabbitohs, Newcastle Knights, Canberra Raiders, Gold Coast Titans or Canterbury Bulldogs fan, it’s probably time to begin looking forward to 2018.
Amongst the ten remaining teams, there are some that are absolutely guaranteed to make the eight like the Melbourne Storm and Sydney Roosters.
(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
But there are also a couple of teams that either just sit in or outside the finals spots who I‘d like to play a game with.
In light of the run home, recent performances and injury concerns, here are some teams that I’ve been thinking about today – I want to know whether you think they are ‘hot’ or ‘not’ heading into the final ten weeks of the competition.
North Queensland Cowboys – Not
If you had asked me about the Cowboys after their 32-6 victory over the Eels two weeks ago, I would have said ‘the Cowboys can win the Premiership this year, even without Matt Scott’. But with Johnathan Thurston now out for the rest of the season, the Cowboys chances come September are looking grim.
Without JT, the Cowboys are a remarkably different team – as you would expect when their best players are no longer available. Michael Morgan proved himself to be more than capable of leading the team around against the Panthers, but I’m not sure he can do this consistently for the rest of the year.
While the Cowboys showed plenty of grit against the Panthers, the Panthers are a team that are yet to beat a team in the top eight this year. Take from that what you will.
With games against the Roosters, Storm, Sharks and Broncos coming up in the final ten rounds, the loss of JT will prove to be a major spanner in the works for any finals run for the Cowboys.
They still make my top eight but I question their impact come September.
Penrith Panthers – Not
The Panthers are one of the biggest myths of 2017 and they do not make my top eight anymore.
What I find most interesting about the Panthers is that despite them being yet to beat a team in the top eight, their final ten games only include four games against teams currently sitting in the top eight; the Sea Eagles (twice), Dragons and Cowboys. This seems a very lucky draw for a team that still finds themselves in contention at this point in the year.
There is no question that the Panthers attack has improved significantly since Josh Mansour’s return, the inclusion of Dylan Edwards in the squad and Matt Moylan’s move to the halves, but they are still yet to impress me enough to call them contenders this year.
(AAP Image/Craig Golding)
If the Panthers manage to sneak into the finals, I predict they will crumble, particularly if they face a team like the Storm or the Roosters in week one.
Parramatta Eels – Hot
Let’s get one thing straight. If you are a Parramatta Eels fan, success in 2017 almost certainly looked like making the top eight. From what I’ve seen this year, the Eels are on track to make their first finals appearance since 2009.
Granted, I don’t think they can challenge for the title, but the Eels have shown that they have the attacking prowess to compete with most other teams in the competition and things only get better when you consider their run home.
The Eels still have one more bye and will only face three teams in the top eight in the final ten rounds. With games against the Knights, Tigers, Titans and Rabbitohs still to come, I’m confident that the combination between Clint Gutherson, Mitch Moses and Corey Norman will be enough to take the Eels to the finals.
Manly Sea Eagles – Hot
This was a team that 90 per cent of fans had missing their top eight – and what a pleasure it has been to watch them play football this year and prove us all wrong.
This Manly team is hot. Red hot. Api Koroisau is one of the in-form hookers in the competition at the moment, and is also playing 80 minutes. With strike power like Tom and Jake Trbojevic and Marty Taupau on the field, the Sea Eagles are a team to watch, particularly as they grow in confidence in the weeks to come.
Daly Cherry-Evans has also been in exceptional form. In his game against the Sharks alone he had three try assists and kicked a field goal.
It’s a testament to Trent Barrett and what he’s been able to do with a new roster that has stayed relatively injury free throughout the year.
Other teams I’m calling hot include the Brisbane Broncos. Other teams that aren’t hot are the New Zealand Warriors.
So over to you Roarers, with ten weeks to go in season 2017 which teams are ‘hot’ and which are ‘not’. Who makes your final eight?
steveng
Roar Rookie
If only the Rabbitohs could win against the; Panthers, Roosters, Cowboys, Sharks, Raiders, Dragons, Bulldogs, Storm and the Eels, the Rabbitohs have a chance of making the 8.
Mary Konstantopoulos
Expert
Perfect.
MrJSquishy
Roar Pro
Hi Mary, My predictor came out that the last game will determine whether the Warriors steal 8th spot from the Eels. So, going on history, Warriors choke, Eels make the 8...
spruce moose
Guest
Mary, You and I watched a different season last year. The Sharks didn't lose 6 in a row. They lost 3. For someone to think a premiership team could lose 6 in a row is concerning.
Wild Eagle
Guest
What surprises me with predictions early in the season is the amount of fans who regard them as declarations of the future and get so very aggro when someone ( like me ) suggests they can't tell and to just relax a bit. Many Eagles fans were declaring wooden spoons and saying the place was stuffed unless Bozo and Barrett cleared out. The voices of reason were shouted down. Some articles written on the Roar to a similar effect were quoted as if they were factual accounts of the future , absolutely ridiculous. Personally I don't bother making broad predictions across the comp because I find it impossible based on history to tell. I'm glad others do however because it makes good reading. Those making aggressive declarations really need to pull their heads in however.. My reading of the Eagles was consistent though in a way. I was delighted when told Bozo was back on board because he has a sensational record in building the Eagles up for a tilt at the title. This could be his best effort so far in such a short period. Plenty were saying Barrett can't coach but when asked to explain why they were so certain all you get is more nonsense.
Glenn
Guest
Parra have been inconsistent for sure but have had many injuries and non settled halfs nearly all year. Now with Moses and Norman settled and Gutho at fullback they'll go a lot better. However season ending injuries last game to 2 important players doesn't help.
Bunney
Roar Rookie
Hi Mary, The Hot or Not question is answered by the ladder for once. The top five are hot, the rest are not. Dragons on the slide Cowboys struggling without JT Eels following win one, lose one pattern Agree with your call that the Panthers are a myth Good on you for having the chutzpah to put your predictions out there for all to ridicule. Its a massively difficult task. Most of us struggle to get more than 4/8 tips every week, so doing it all in one go before a ball is kicked? Very difficult. As for the ones you got wrong - Panthers and Raiders were hot faves in Feb / March. The Titans squeezed into the eight last year and looked a significantly better team this year. The Warriors suck in EVERYBODY they haven't already sucked in the last 5 years straight. The people who are strongest about them being pretenders are the ones who have been burnt the most! For me, the Dragons were the early surprise packet, but Manly gets the nod now. I never expected Blake Green to do much, thinking he'd be another that looks good in purple, and mediocre in any other colour, but he is giving great support to DCE who is firing like never before. And I didn't expect the Doggies to suck so hard. Can't believe the number of underperforming players have been re-signed during this malaise!
thomas c
Guest
cowboys and titans demonstrate the effect of injuries in crushing finals hopes. However well your team is going, you're a key player or two away from catastrophe. And there's still a lot of time for things to go wrong. Before you think, how unlucky could we possibly be? Remember Souths lost inglis for the season, the Cowboys lost Thurston and Scott for the season, and the titans' injury toll can only be explained via having angered a deity. Lot of bad luck around.
Mary Konstantopoulos
Expert
I'm not a Knights fan Jeremy, but that hurt!!
Mary Konstantopoulos
Expert
Don't forget the Eels still have one more bye up their sleeve...
Mary Konstantopoulos
Expert
MrJSquishy, do the Eels make your 8?!
Mary Konstantopoulos
Expert
I'm comfortable with that - the Eels are there! ;)
Mary Konstantopoulos
Expert
I'm not a Jarryd Hayne fan, but I don't think it's crazy to have made the assumption at the beginning of the year that the Titans would do better with a full season of Hayne.
Mary Konstantopoulos
Expert
To be honest Spruce, I think you are being a bit harsh on the Dragons. They may have had a recent slump in form, but the Sharks lost 6 in a row heading into Finals last year. The Dragons deserve their spot in the 8.
Jeremy
Guest
I may have only watched the 1st half of each of the last 10 Knights games, but man they look hot! I wonder how their second half performances have been...
Oingo Boingo
Guest
I also see good signs in the Roosters, but at the same time they don't leave me brimming with confidence.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Sounds ok Stu but including the bye, by my calcs they need 5/9 to get to 28 points. If there's a few on 28 that might not be enough. Are they good enough and consistent enough to go 5 or 6 from 9? I'm not so sure. Anyway good luck mate - the semi finals would certainly be better for their inclusion - especially if they came storming in. RTS is running into form and Roche looked pretty sharp at dummy half. It would be good if you can get Foz in form for next season too...?
jamesb
Guest
Raiders and Panthers have been major disappointments. Warriors are also a disappointment, but that's to be expected. The top 8 could stay the same. And maybe, just maybe, something different, a Melbourne v Manly GF.
Wild Eagle
Guest
I think your top 8 predictions were pretty logical Mary . Titans were a chance with a good run with injuries but the Eagles were a better chance than many thought because they already had a really good pack last year but it sailed under the radar. We lacked a couple of backs though and some great recruitment in this area along with a good run with injuries has led to a hot team. This Eagles outfit is unlike any I have seen. So many different players have shared match winning duties around through the year and when the attack clicks it seems to shock the opposition and demoralise them at times. I picked Saints and Penrith to swap positions when they were at opposite ends of the table a little while ago but this stalled a bit last round.. Marty Tapau is playing as well as any forward I've seen play the game and Apis tackling this year is the best I have ever seen from a midget and that even includes Toovey which I thought was impossible. I think the rest of the season is highly unpredictable but Manly are a chance to win the title if we maintain our good run with injuries.
The Spectator
Guest
Hi Mary, always a good read. Re Manly, there draw should ensure there top 4 birth (barring injuries of course) and there away record gives even more hope. The problem Manly have is they have 1.5 Mil on the sidelines in Stewart and Matai, that money if anyone else gets injured will hurt the Eagles. Fingers crossed cause they should've beaten Mel at Brooky, and lost to Brisbane, touched up the other challengers so Mel at aami in a few weeks should be a good indicator.