The mighty have fallen, and there may not be a way back.
The Western Bulldogs in 2016 were one of the great football stories, making history with a devastating run through September in what could well be the greatest finals campaign ever put together by an AFL or VFL team.
Undermanned and ostensibly lacking match fitness, they sailed through to the premiership despite starting underdog in all four finals, travelling interstate twice, and not once getting the use of home ground advantage.
They were an outstanding September team, but also a very good home-and-away side. Even though they finished seventh on the ladder, their record would have put them in the top four nine times since the turn of the century, and knocking on the door of it in several others.
With eight rounds to go in 2017, the Dogs, with a 7-7 record, would need to win every game to match last year’s tally of 15 home-and-away wins, which is clearly not going to happen.
Their percentage, usually a very reliable indicator of a club’s true position in the overall scheme of things, is 96.6. That ranks them a lowly 12th.
By the numbers, their defence is standing up OK relative to the rest of the competition, but they are conceding 13 points more a game compared to 2016. In attack, they are averaging three points less per game, but looking at the last block of six matches, they are two goals per game worse off. That’s about a four goal worse side per game than their premiership model.
But, the numbers don’t do justice to how ordinary the Bulldogs have looked through the majority of this season. Saturday against West Coast was a case in point, particularly through the first three quarters, where they lacked any sort of cohesion. They looked like a team of odd-bods and jobbers that had been thrown together to play without so much as a training session to get to know each other.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
The key problems with ball in hand were decision-making, positioning and skill. Not a good trio when trying to move the ball smoothly in today’s game. When the first two are failing, they have a direct impact on the third.
We often hear of commentators and coaches wanting their teams to play ‘first option’ footy, particularly in stoppage and contested situations, but the Dogs are struggling to implement it.
When winning the ball at a stoppage, there are only so many ways you can dispose of it, with opposition bodies everywhere. Having teammates at the right exit points is critical. Much of the time, when we laud players that have great vision, it’s because their teammates are in the right position, and the best players already know where they are before receiving the ball.
At the moment, the Dogs player with the ball is finding no option in the right spot where he wants to give it, which leads to him holding onto it for longer than ideal. This enables opposition to react, pressuring the ball carrier, but also closing off any exits that might be open.
By the time the ball is ready to be given off, the ball-carrier is under more pressure, affecting his skill level, but the receiver is also under more pressure than he should have been. All of this happens in seconds, but is having a massive impact. It’s why the Dogs constantly look “off”.
When this happens enough times, the confidence of individual players starts to wane. We’ve even seen Marcus Bontempelli consistently fumble and fall into these traps as the season has gone on. At times, the right option is in the right spot, but the ball-winner second-guesses themselves, and the moment is gone.
(AAP Image/David Crosling)
In the finals last year, all of the above was razor sharp. The Dogs were clean, confidence and focussed. At the moment, the reverse applies.
Luke Beveridge has always rung the changes with personnel between matches. It worked like a charm in his first two years, but is it part of the problem this year with confidence at a low ebb? Players can’t find continuity or cohesion.
Two obvious players that symbolise the Bulldogs woes are Jake Stringer and Jason Johannisen
At the start of 2016, we put Stringer at 25 in The Roar Top 50, and I wrote the following: “Stringer really does seem to have it all. Listed at 192 centimetres and 91 kilograms, he has vice-like hands, is a superb judge of flight but can wreak havoc on the ground, and is a beautiful kick.”
“He can play both taller and smaller than his height, but is light of foot, belying his weight, while also being powerful and explosive.”
Sadly, we’re not seeing enough of his wonderful pack-busting, ball-tearing attributes, and frankly he’s been playing soft footy. There’s a case to be made that he’s the most disappointing individual player of the last two years. Maybe we expected too much and overrated him to start with.
Much has been made of Johnnisen being tagged out of games in the last month, and for good reason. After averaging 25 disposals per game through the finals on the way to a Norm Smith medal, and 25 disposals again across the first ten matches this year, his output has been drastically reduced over the last four weeks.
Opposition defensive forwards are targeting Johannisen and tagging him to distraction. It’s not just his lack of link, run and carry that is contributing to the Dogs malaise, but unsettling air it creates around him. Maybe John Longmire, who started this when Sydney played them, has ended his career as an AFL half-back, and a new position has to be found.
The Western Bulldogs are down, but not quite out. They have a run home that is friendly enough on paper, as much as it can be in this utopianly even AFL world. Their ceiling appears to be the 12-win mark, which is likely to place teams around eighth-tenth this year.
The Cinderella story of 2016 has turned into an ugly step-sister this season. They’re going to need some sort of magic to figure again in this year’s finals race.
Mark
Guest
$950? Try $150.
Mark
Guest
Crameri? Thats cute.
Mark
Guest
We both played four finals. Keep up.
Mark
Guest
Obviously struck a nerve with you. Swans 2012 with no million dollar dud > 2016 fairytale fluke :)
Mark
Guest
Give it a rest.
Mattician6x6
Guest
Got to congratulate bevo on creating more reason for clubs to verbally or physically intimidate JJ, not the brightest move he's done through the media.
Macca
Guest
PD - "it’s never End of Story with Macca." "We are each the authors of our own lives"
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Well replied Macca. Tip: Angela, it's never End of Story with Macca.
Macca
Guest
Angela - "Much easier for fans to get to the game. No expensive accommodation to fork out etc, etc." How does this impact the result? It isn't like when Melbourne teams go to Perth and the crowd is 90% how team 10% visitors. And do you know how hard it is for a Victorian team supporter to get an GF ticket? "The advantage of playing on the ‘G’ is an unearned advantage for Victorian teams." Yes but how big is that advantage - as I asked previously " in the history of the AFL how many times has a Victorian team got a “home” grand final at the MCG when they weren’t the highest finishing side in the home and away? And of those times how many occasions has the Victorian team won?" Finally what is the point is discussing something that can not and will not change - when the AFL are selling tickets at a minimum of $1,000 a pop they aren't going to put the grand final in a ground that hounds 50,000 fewer people (missing out on more than $5m in ticket sales) and even if they wanted to they legally can't until 2037.
Angela
Guest
Here we go (@Macca: The MCG may not be the Bulldog's home ground - nor is it the home ground of many of the other Victorian teams (who's dedicated home ground is it? I haven't a clue) but it's. in. Melbourne. Doh... Much easier for fans to get to the game. No expensive accommodation to fork out etc, etc. And yes, as Cat notes: the Swans earned those advantages. The advantage of playing on the 'G' is an unearned advantage for Victorian teams. End of story.
paulywalnuts
Guest
I see more similarities with the Dogs of last year and the Power of 2013. Very different game plans but both based around a manic intensity. Just go go go until the other team cracks- as the Doggies did in the finals last year and the Power nearly did in 2013. This papered over efficiency problems however, and if the edge in intensity is lost you've got a problem. Very hard for young minds and bodies to sustain that, not a recipe for sustained success.
TIM .MEAGHER
Guest
people forget that hawthorn 08 lost Crawford, Croad, Cambell . Dew and Williams only played a handful of games the following year before leaving, Bateman was slowing, Young never got going again, and although Crawford was the only genuine superstar of , they lost strength and run with those players gone, once they got players like Lake, Hale Smith Hill Puoppolo they were back in contention, the other Myth put forward by opposition supporters is the Draft one concerning the entry of the new teams, sure they got buddy roughie and lewis and hodge as early picks, but most of the rest were later picks which were developed well. and some good trades ie gibson burgoyne, Also in 08 Hawthorn and Geelong were the top 2 sides by some margin if you look at the finals games played, so poor comparison really
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
It's remarkable how 'just an average team' won the premiership, wining four finals in a row, two of them against the reigning grand final contenders (including the 3-peat champions) and the other two played interstate. I guess you're saying it was a highly unique year in which the rest of the competition was so woeful, it allowed an average team to take the chocolates. Nice theory, but I think you're the one struggling to understand what happened.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
I think you're underestimating the depth of talent at the Doggies and failing to recognise they are still very young and developing. You also overlook that the Doggies have great depth, having won VFL premierships in 2014 and 2016. The doggies' issue is not a lack of talent in the rank and file, but rather a lack of hunger now that they've achieved the ultimate at such an early stage of most of their careers. I think all of those Freo players you've mentioned, with the exception of Dawson, have played some good footy at some stages of their careers. Freo's fall from grace is a bit perplexing, because I think they still have a lot of ability.
Shane
Guest
Nice theory, but not really reflected in their season averages - their frees for are about the same as last year, and they are conceding only one extra free against each game. That certainly doesn't account for their supposed drop in form. In fact none of their stats are significantly worse than last year, some are actually better. I think this is just highlighting how spectacularly unspectacular they were as premiers last year, and a number of commentators who got caught up in the hype are now trying to reason why the dogs have 'failed' so badly. The thing is they haven't failed - they are just an average team who were in the right place at the right time last year, and now we are seeing their true standard without rose coloured glasses on.
Jon boy
Guest
I Can see similar signs happening at bulldogs that happened at Freo after they reached the GF even though they did not win it Lyon got 110% out of group of players that was not in the same class as the great Hawthorn; Geelong and Brisbane Sides Ross for 2 years persevered with players that were not AFL Standard Dawson: Mayne: Ballantyne: D, Pearce ;Clarke: Suban: When Fyfe went down not one of these Senior Players Stood UP NON contributors I believe Beverage will not allow this to happen he has dropped big names who have not performed
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Redb, are you suggesting that the Doggies were still in premiership hangover mode from 1954? (That could explain a few lean seasons over the decades. ?)
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Agreed Macca. I'm happy to put up with Stringer's bad games and take the good with the bad (and there's very few players in the league who are think are worth doing that with). His two goals streaming out of the centre and off half-back, running around opponents and kicking it through from 65m on the run against the Swans this year at crucial stages of a tight game were goals of the year for mine and were key factors in us winning that game. They didn't even make goal of the week because Buddy Franklin has a higher profile and kicked two great goals. But Stringer's were decidedly better. He was in good form this year on a reasonably consistent basis until he hurt his knee and missed a few rounds. He's just getting back to the level of fitness he was at before, now. The most concerning thing that he needs to rectify is that he too often just floats around on the outside of packs looking for the easy kicks. But maybe he's been instructed to do that, because he's usually so damaging and explosive.
Macca
Guest
PD - You are right the stats don't tell the whole story but they are only the very basic stats and were only meant as a jumping off point and you are right the stats don't meet most peoples perceptions but that in itself is interesting. Apart from the obvious observation that 2015 was a very good year and 2016 & 2017 have failed to live up to that bench mark the fact that the stats don't marry up with perceptions is evidence of Stringers inconsistencies and inability to deliver on his talent. People remember his 5 goal game against St Kilda this year for instance and see a star but have those sort of performances and average 14 possessions, 3.4 marks and 1.8 goals over your last 35 games without a lot of stinkers as well.
Redb
Roar Guru
There were very early signs of a Premiership hangover at the Dogs back in 2016. This is reminiscent of Hawthorn post 2008 flag, finished outside the 8 in 2009. They will be back, but too late for poor Bob.