Evolve or die: North Melbourne needs a born-again Brad Scott

When a team is battling, it’s easy to picture the man in charge as fool with his finger on the button and no real clue what he’s doing – but that’s rarely the case.

An AFL senior coach doesn’t get to be an AFL senior coaching without knowing football inside out. They’ve probably had an extensive playing career at the top level, and if not have certainly spent years or even decades in the coaching business.

All things considered, Brad Scott has hung around longer than most. Of the current crop of coaches, he’s coached the equal-fourth most games, and been in his job longer than anyone else bar Alastair Clarkson.

Of the wave of Mick Malthouse proteges that were installed around the league after 2010, he’s the only one left – with the obvious exception of Nathan Buckley, of course.

So despite his side sitting seventeenth on the ladder, having conceded the third most points of any team, and being on a four-game losing streak, we’ve got to assume Brad Scott does actually have some idea what he’s doing.

That’s not the impression you’d get from reading the comments on your average NMFC facebook post though, or from the AFL’s finding that North Melbourne come in at fourth-last in their coach satisfaction survey.

Is it just a bump in the road, or is Scott’s coaching officially over the hill? There are a few important things to consider.

(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)

Offence versus defence
It’s the great philosophical question in every sporting code and one that takes many forms: would you rather have the best forward in the game, or the best defender? Is the best defence a good offence – or is it the other way around?

On a basic, philosophical level, I pick offence. Scoring points should be the preference, it’s only if you can’t do that that you should focus on stopping your opponent from scoring points of their won.

Most defenders are just failed forwards (with apologies to Liam Jones), and a defense-based game plan more often than not is just an attempt to cover for a lack of talent, to win through hard work rather than skill. Admirable, but it’s not how kings play.

That said, putting pressure on opponents and knowing how to defend is still a crucial part of football, and that’s why most rebuilding teams start by focusing on it – with an eye to playing a more attacking style once their talent matures.

Over the past few years, we’ve seen both St Kilda and Melbourne hit the rebuild hard, and we’re seeing Carlton do it currently. All three have heavily based their mid-rebuild gameplan around playing tough, physical, defensive footy.

The benefits are numerous. It prevents blowout losses, which keeps the fans happy and the players in good spirits, and every now and then you catch a lazy team unawares. It’s respectable footy – the media gives a thumbs up, and fans beam with pride even if they’re not winning.

However, it’s fair to have some doubts about whether this really is the best thing for a team’s future. It all lies in whether or not they are able to eventually graduate from this basic, honest gameplan to playing genuinely elite, attacking football.

We’re watching Melbourne and St Kilda flirt with this one a week-to-week basis right now. Every now and then we see them put it together, but both sides also still play horrendous, cover-your-eyes football sometimes when trying to attack.

Is it better instead to begin a rebuild by focusing on offence? North are seventh for points for and 16th for points against this year, so there are no doubts about which direction the gameplan is focused on.

Offensive play is the hardest skill set to learn and takes the longest to get comfortable with in the game. It’s harder to watch as fan of a rebuilding side, but maybe putting your priorities there will yield better results in the long term.

It comes down to this in a way – when your team is at its peak, and it’s late in a game, too tired to think, and no time to get the coach’s orders, what do you want burned into their brain – what intuition to do you want them to fall back into?

I’d pick attack over defend.

(AAP Image/Rob Blakers)

Playing the kids
Of course, while I’ve already started talking about North Melbourne as a club that is rebuilding, it’s a fair question to ask whether or not they really are if you look at the weekly teamsheet.

Having a rant about North’s selections has become almost a weekly event in my AFL quick takes, with Round 15’s edition asking the question of why North would opt to bring in Lindsay Thomas to play out of position instead of debuting a youngster.

It was nice to hear lots of positive talk in the pre-season about the team being as competitive as it can and still aiming for finals, but the time for honesty has come – the Roos are 4-10 and 2017 is finished.

Probably the most frustrating aspect of Brad Scott’s tenure has been his conservatism when it comes to selection. It feels like the old favourites all too often win out over the youngsters, even when the former is out of form and the latter screaming for an opportunity.

However, it’s only fair to give Scott at least a little credit – he has stuck by some of the younger players for decent stretches of time this year, through good form and bad. Nathan Hrovat, Ryan Clarke, Trent Dumont, Jy Simpkin, Taylor Garner, Kayne Turner, Mason Wood and Ed Vickers-Willis have all been regulars when available.

And look, it’s fair to say that if the Kangaroos – or any club – made its team selections according to the whims of reactive fans in Facebook comments, they would be run into the ground in a matter of weeks. If you had to pick between a coach who is too conservative and one who is too reactive, you’d probably go the former.

Still, if there are senior players not making much contribution to the team’s efforts it becomes hard to understand why, if a team is going to pretty much gift someone a game, it should not be doing so to the player who might get some useful development out of it.

Scott made some big calls earlier in the year dropping Andrew Swallow and Lindsay Thomas from the team, but unsurprisingly, they’ve been able to work their way back into the side seemingly against a much lower bar than the developing kids in the VFL face.

And there’s one specific incidence of this that is a big enough dilemma to deserve its own sub-heading.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

The Goldstein-Preuss dilemma
When I went to North Melbourne’s Round 4 game, Good Friday against the Western Bulldogs, I lined up at one of the merchandise stalls planning to buy a badge of the player who had offered the most excitement for the Roos so far that year: Braydon Preuss.

They were sold out! A three-game ruckman, every-badge sold out. That’s how exciting Preuss’ first few weeks in the senior team were. Fans loved him. Still do.

And yet, after that Round 4 game, he was ‘rested’ for North’s Round 5 trip to Perth to play Fremantle, and has not been seen at senior level again since. He must have been awfully tired!

Some will say that Goldstein and Preuss playing inside the same team is not North’s optimal set up. I disagree, but for argument’s sake, maybe they’re right – maybe North is most competitive with just one ruckman in the mix.

However, it’s clear that even North’s ‘most competitive’ setting at the moment isn’t achieving much – so surely it makes sense to be actually playing someone who, in addition to being a fan favourite, could benefit greatly from the experience?

The Goldstein-Preuss situation is symbolic of the wider malaise at Brad Scott’s North Melbourne – a team that likely needs to commit to a rebuild, but is still wavering on the edge of it, leaving fans in an unfortunate space where there is neither wins nor young development to get excited about.

The Roos will need to pick what they want to be and stick with it sooner or later, but before that, there’s a potentially paradigm-shifting off-season to go through.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

The superstar hunt
North has made no secret this year of putting up big-money, long-term offers to two out of contract players in Josh Kelly and Dustin Martin. Both are certain All-Australians, both are in the race for the Brownlow Medal.

The Kangaroos believe they have the salary cap space to potentially accommodate both on the list, and if they somehow did get both signatures it would have to go down as one of, if not the biggest coups in VFL/AFL history.

Of course, we could yammer day and night about the odds of this coming to fruition and get nowhere. The simple thing is we won’t know anything until the players either re-sign or make their move in October this year. In the meantime, you’ll have to forgive me for being a dreamer (it’s more fun than watching us lose to Gold Coast).

The real discussion is how this signing affects North’s list-building strategy over the years to come, and that in turn has an impact on Scott’s future at the club. In complete fairness to the coach, maybe the reason he’s not fully committed to the rebuild yet is because of the uncertainty around how this will all play out.

Say the dream scenario comes true, and both Kelly and Martin are in blue and white next year. North certainly would have to give up their first round picks for 2017 and ’18, and likely more, depending on whether or not Martin comes across as a free agent.

It would immediately give North arguably the best midfield 1-2 in the league, or certainly very close, and with that as the basis of the team, it would rocket them back into finals talk, maybe even top four and premiership talk.

Scott would be at the helm of more talent than he’s ever had at his disposal before, and having taken teams that were only mildly talented to prelim finals in the past, it would be worth giving him the chance to do something good with it.

In this scenario, it’s also arguably worth retaining players like Jarrad Waite and Scott Thompson, simply because they’re more likely to contribute to a 2018 premiership push than are Nick Larkey and Declan Watson.

Say neither of them comes over – tears. Endless laughter from all my footy-loving mates. Much rejoicing in the house of Cameron Rose. But, North Melbourne has a top-five draft pick, possibly a top-two draft pick.

In this case, it is time to start cutting the vets, and it is time to properly commit to playing the kids. It’s also the time to have a serious chat with Scott about his future – he’s out of contract in 2018, and he has that year to show he’s the right man to take the club forward.

If it’s somewhere in the middle, then it probably depends more on which player comes across. If it’s the younger Kelly, the club must still look to the future. If it’s the older Martin, a flag assault has to be planned sooner rather than later.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

Evolve or die
Ken Hinkley and Damien Hardwick came into this season as two of the most under-pressure coaches in the league, despite both having taken their clubs to finals as recently as 2014 (Hinkley) or 2015 (Hardwick).

Both were headed down a bad path however, because it’s a simple fact of the industry – what worked when you were first appointed is not what’s going to work a few years later. Charles Darwin was right on the money. Evolve or die. You must adapt to survive.

Both, remarkably, have turned it around. Port Adelaide and Richmond will certainly play finals this year. Richmond might even win one! I’m not sure I’m ready to live in that world. Both coaches deserve a hand for having the courage to reinvent themselves.

Brad Scott’s offence-first focus might be a brilliant move that will eventually pay dividends – or it might be something that belongs in the stone age. Certainly, the selection policy needs a bit of work. To stay relevant in this game, he’s going to have step away from his overly conservative methods of the past.

That’s the challenge that will face Scott in one form or another in 2018 – and mark my works, he will still be coaching the NMFC in Round 1 2018, unless he unexpectedly decides to leave of his own volition.

Maybe the directive will be to see how high he can rise with two new million-dollar men brought into the side. Maybe it will be to fully commit to the rebuild, give the kids the keys to the car, and teach them how to drive it in style.

He’s been a great servant of the club, equally as important as any other in its modern history. As I said earlier this year, North Melbourne might not exist if he hadn’t done the job he has. But football clubs always have at least one eye on the future and no person is spared the passage of time.

Come 2017, Scott will be left with a simple ultimatum. Find a way to become the coach the North Melbourne Football Club needs – and the jury’s still out on exactly what that is – or face the consequences.

And for what it’s worth, Brad, I believe you can do it.