After the State of Origin decider next Wednesday night, there are just eight rounds in the NRL premiership left.
Eight rounds to decide who gets to feature in September, and eventually, who goes to ANZ Stadium for the grand final. All matches are obviously important but, in each round, there is one match that takes on an even greater significance. The below is my take on these matches.
Round 19 – New Zealand Warriors versus Penrith Panthers – Mt Smart Stadium
Both these teams are sitting in sight of the top eight and are probably the most unpredictable teams in the NRL. We can probably take the guess that this would be a high scoring game and would likely favour the home team getting home, but this could go either way.
One thing is for certain though. The winner is still in the running to make the eight while the loser, although likely still mathematically possible, is just about gone for 2017.
Round 20 – St George Illawarra Dragons versus Manly Warringah Sea Eagles – WIN Stadium
While the top eight is currently reasonably clear cut, arguably the side under the most pressure is the Dragons. A game against one of the form sides of the competition will prove crucial. A Dragons win should steady their ship while a loss will leave them open to contenders below. A win for Manly likely consolidates their place in the top four.
Round 21 – Parramatta Eels versus Brisbane Broncos – ANZ Stadium
This should be a cracker. Both teams should pick up four points following State of Origin 3 so continuation of the run will consolidate their position.
A win for Parramatta will put then within one or two wins of a top eight spot in September whereas a win for Brisbane gets them very close, if not in, the top four after Round 21.
Round 22 – Manly Warringah Sea Eagles versus Sydney Roosters – Lottoland
A Sunday afternoon game at Lottoland against the Roosters will bring in a large home crowd and you would think that the winner goes close to cementing a top four spot. Like the Sharks, Manly’s home record is underwhelming this year while they haven’t lost away, so that brings the Roosters into the game.
(AAP Image/David Mariuz)
Round 23 – Brisbane Broncos versus Cronulla Sutherland Sharks – Suncorp Stadium
The Broncos will be heavily favoured to win at home however the Sharks away record, at time, of writing, was perfect. If the Sharks form against the Roosters last week was a sign of things to come and not an aberration, this could be a classic.
The Sharks could probably take a loss here and still make the four but, for the Broncos, a loss here may lead to a fifth place finish and a home final a few weeks later.
Round 24 – Brisbane Broncos versus St George Illawarra Dragons – Suncorp Stadium
Much more will be known about the Dragons’ chances of qualifying for the top eight by the time Round 24 is here but, based on their form at the moment, a loss here would put them very close to falling outside of the eight. On the flipside, an upset win by the Dragons likely means that the top four would be getting out of reach for the Broncos.
Round 25 – Cronulla Sutherland Sharks versus Sydney Roosters – Southern Cross Group Stadium
The Sharks home form has been ordinary this season while the Roosters records against top teams so far has been equally poor. The winner here should wrap up a top four spot and potentially a home final. The loser will likely need to wait until Round 26 to try and lock in their spot in the top half of the eight.
Round 26 – North Queensland Cowboys versus Brisbane Broncos – 1300Smiles Stadium
Nothing has been written of the Cowboys in this article until now and there is uncertainty around their finals credentials without their champion halfback. However, I expect them to retain their place in the eight and a win for them here would likely see them finish fifth or sixth and have a home semi final. A loss to the Broncos would see them likely miss the four.
The one key team I haven’t mentioned this far is the Melbourne Storm, primarily because they will start favourite in every game they play from Round 19 on. However, with games against the Sea Eagles, Roosters and Cowboys, they will help shape the eight.
My own view is that the top eight will stay the same as it is now. The Dragons are most under pressure but they have a reasonable draw coming home and I just don’t think the contenders outside the eight have the consistency to challenge. So, in order, my top eight is Storm, Sharks, Sea Eagles, Roosters, Broncos, Cowboys, Eels and Dragons.
Bunney
Roar Rookie
Titans beat the Sharks - game on! New game of next round: Rd 20 - Panthers v Titans Surely the Dragons are stuffed. Can't see them beating Manly this week which will put them level on points with the Panthers if they beat the Titans, or one game ahead of both the Titans and Panthers if the Titans win. Their Rd 23 game against the Titans and Rd 25 against the Panthers will be great fun.
William Dalton Davis
Roar Rookie
There's definitely been a gap between the top and bottom 8 this year and the ladder reflects. Dragons the only team looking like faltering however I can't see anything from the bottom 8 that looks threatening. The Raiders have the potential but need a huge attitude adjustment which is something I don't honk Sticky is capable of. Shame after all the good work he's done the previous 2 or 3 years. The Warriors I suppose shouldn't be written off completely. After all they do have the Kiwi spine. However I just don't think Foran is too interested anymore and as usual they're rocks and diamonds at best. Of the top 4 I think it'll stay as it is and Brisbane, it pains me to say, will probably finish 5 or 6. Too many niggling injuries on top of legitimate injuries. James Roberts is playing hurt and struggling to inject himself with a revolving door of halves partners. Sims has stepped up a bit recently but hasn't been what we needed up front though his combinations with Milford and Nikorima have been a highlight. The ship could right itself with I believe a full healthy roster expected by rounds 21/22 but by then the damage could already be done if they drop points against either the knights or dogs. Sharkies have done my head in. They won games while being severely outplayed by the likes of the tigers while they have also carved through top teams like a second wife through a bank account. The roosters imo are the most likely pretenders of the top 4. From memory I don't believe they've beaten any of the other top 4 sides and got out of jail while understrength against an understrength Brisbane side. Off the top of my head I believe they've only won 4 games against top 8 sides this year and only two of which weren't more or less ruined by origin. Storm just look a class above this year. Nothing more to say. Even when the big boys aren't playing they're still ultra competitive and look capable of taking down quality teams. Manly seem like battlers to me. Like they aren't setting the world on fire with their play. It's more everyone's doing their job and it's working. Depth looks like a big issue though. Especially in the second row which is probably one of the most liquid positions in RL. They really could go either way from here
Roger Ramjet
Guest
Will 28 or 30 be the cut off for the 8?
rakshop
Roar Rookie
Cowboys v Panthers Round 23. I have run through the NRL simulator and if the favourites win the remaining games in the season, this game will decide who makes the top 8. Cowboys win, Panthers cant make it. Panthers win it puts Cowboys and Panthers equal on points, with the Dragons close by.
Uncle
Guest
Next big game is in September. Most boring finish to an nrl season in years. Clearly evidenced by channel 9 unable to find many good games left in the year and putting the tigers on tv a lot in the next 7 weeks
Bunney
Roar Rookie
Good list - my only edit would be the Dragons V Panthers game is more key than Roosters V Sharks IMO. This a great time of the year for footy fans. I love looking at the last 8 weeks in advance to see who will make a run, who will hang on etc. The Dragons are two games clear of the Panthers and Warriors, but straight after these two play out the match of the round on Friday next week, teh Dragons play the Raiders in Canberra. Delicious. The Dragons have always struggled to beat Canberra, esp in Canberra, and if the Raiders win, the winner of Panthers V Warriors is only 1 game behind the Dragons, who then play the Sea Eagles the following week. The Warriors have let everyone down at this time of year over and over, but take a look at their run home. After the Panthers, their remaining home games are against SHarks, Raiders and Sea Eagles which is tough, but their away games are against a depleted Cowboys, the Knights, the Rabbits and the Tigers. I know its said every year, but they could win a swag of those and actually make the finals (Disclaimer: I still reckon they'll be finals fodder if they do) You know what I'd really like to see though? The Titans go on a run. They're 3 games behind 8th, so it'll take a minor miracle, and all hope will be extinguished if they don't beat the Sharks next week. They have a good recent record against the Sharks, but after that they play a heap of middling teams until R26, so its do-able. If they beat the Sharks, their game against the Panthers goes to second most important in the round behind Dragons V Sea Eagles. R19 - Sharks (H) R20 - Panthers (A) R21 - Tigers (H) R22 - Broncos (H) R23 - Dragons (A) R24 - Eels (A) R25 - Bulldogs (H) R26 - Roosters (A) The Eels have a relatively soft run home, so they're safe, meaning the Dragons, Warriors, Panthers and Titans that are tussling for that 8th spot. (Raiders & Bulldogs are gone). The Panthers also have a soft run home, so are a chance too. WHenever these teams play each other - that's what I'm looking forward too!
Kreig
Guest
It's a shame league is not a bigger sport. The ONLY thing I like about foccer is the EPL's promotion/relegation system. Image seeing someone like the Redcliffe Dolphins promoted? Brilliant!
David Holden
Roar Guru
If there was promotion and relegation, this one would be big!
Duncan Smith
Guest
What about today's Dog's v Knights showdown? Loser relegated to Group 18 bush footy, winner might make a run all the way to the grand final.