“What do you say? I’ve never seen anything like it. Ever.” Manly coach Trent Barrett was clearly livid after his side’s loss to Penrith.
Barrett’s ire in the post-match press conference was firmly directed at the match officials.
“We played in circumstances where we couldn’t win when some of the things that went against us.”
Here’s the problem with that Trent: your team’s game style, coming up against the Panthers, and coupled with the officials in charge and the players you were missing, should have indicated that what occurred was a definite possibility. In fact, it was pretty much a likelihood.
The stats – which you should be constantly studying closely – tell you so. To blame your side’s loss on the officiating – possibly even suggesting bias – is pretty poor form.
What Manly wandered into was a perfect storm of factors that meant victory was highly unlikely unless everything went right. Or unless they changed their usual modus operandi.
Let’s look at why.
Penalties conceded
As pointed out last week, the Sea Eagles are one of the most penalised sides in the NRL this year. Mostly that’s not a bad thing. In fact, in this era of bin-shy referees it is a very good strategy.
The high concession of penalties is actually an indication of a red zone defensive strategy to defend your line. The time taken through the awarding of penalties – usually for such things as offside, holding the tackled player down, hands on the ball – allow your defensive line to reset.
If your side’s defence is good the chances are much better that your side will hold out the attacks. Don’t believe me? Have a look at this:
| Average penalties conceded | Rank | Average tries conceded | Rank | |
| Storm | 7.4 | 1st | 2.7 | 15th |
| Manly | 7.2 | 2nd | 2.9 | 14th |
Never mind arguments about what the referees should do, or what the rules say, or the spirit of the game. That’s irrelevant. That’s how the game is clearly allowed to run. If you don’t utilise this strategy it is harder to win.
However, this means that the Sea Eagles – the coach, players and fans – must accept that they play a style of game that concedes lots of penalties. As stated above, this strategy relies on your side’s defence being good. Your tacklers better be up to the job. That brings us to the second factor.
Who was missing?
Jake Trbojevic was in State of Origin camp for NSW. This was a huge factor in the Sea Eagles’ loss. Trbojevic senior is the keystone of the Sea Eagles defence. He averages 37 tackles a game and misses just 1.2. That’s a miserly and remarkably good 3.2 per cent missed tackle ratio.
His replacement was Darcy Lussick, who this season averages 13 tackles a match with 3.2 misses – a 24.6 per cent missed tackle ratio. Lussick missed five tackles against the Panthers and had a missed tackle ratio of 31.25 per cent.
Further, Curtis Sironen was also out injured. This meant that the defensive line was distinctly different and that’s a definite challenge for a side that is going to give away lots of penalties. This is something that Barrett must surely have known when he sent his boys out to play their high penalty conceding style of play.
Penalties awarded
This is then compounded again by the Panthers being the number one-ranked side in the NRL for being awarded penalties at the home ground. The Panthers crowd sure knows how to get in the referee’s ear because the Mountain Men average nine penalties received when they play at Pepper Stadium.
This factor – mixed with the Sea Eagles’ usual proclivity for giving away penalties – means that it is basic logic that the penalty count against Manly would probably be higher than usual, and possibly extremely high. Again, these are statistics that a first grade NRL coach should be across.
And it is further compounded by the last factor.
Who was in charge?
Henry Perenara was the man with the whistle. Perenara blows his whistle more than any other ref in the NRL. In 2017, the games he has been in charge of have seen 241 penalties awarded at a rate of just under 14 a game. That’s two over the average.
All Black Richie McCaw was legendary for his ability to push the rules to the limit. It wasn’t just because he was a superb player though. He ensured that he did fastidious research on the referees that would control his games so he knew what they were likely to crack down on and what they were likely to let go.
McCaw’s record is testament to how good that tactic was. In this instance all Barrett had to do was to look at how many penalties Perenara usually awards to see the risk.
Barrett was the officer on deck in charge of the HMAS Manly and he sailed it straight into a perfect storm – seemingly without checking the weather forecast before heading out.
Manly’s penchant for transgressing was amplified by the home side’s talent for drawing penalties. This was multiplied again by the head referee’s partiality for awarding penalties. That predictably led to an extremely lop-sided first half possession ratio in the Panther’s favour.
It exposed the absence of usual Manly defenders Sironen and especially Jake Trbojevic, leading to points conceded. Points that Manly were not able to claw back in the second stanza.
While there were some contentious decisions during the match, the key reason for the loss was that Manly did not adjust their playing style. That was in spite of all the signs saying that if they didn’t they would gift their opponents masses of possession that their depleted side was unlikely to be able to sufficiently repel.
Basically, Trent, it is your job to be across this stuff and it doesn’t seem like you were. Tell your story walking.
Wild Eagle
Guest
Agree with you Bill but I you talking about the first or the second game this year in which the officals completely destroyed the Eagles chances against Penrith?
Bill Moorcroft
Guest
Tim Gore must have watched another game. Listen to the TV commentators and the millions of people who actually watched this injustice. Penalties against Manly, same with no penalty against Penrith. Manly tries disallowed Penrith hand touch forward try awarded. The bunker ref was WRONG. This is what is killing the game. Not the players, the amateur biased inadequate refs and bunker refs. Penrith next game will be annihilation unless these ridiculous bunker refs decide the game again.
Bert
Guest
There is nothing grubbier than a grubby grub.
GregB
Guest
Good job of stacking the statistics to confirm your bias Tim, I hope you do the same if ever Melbourne suffer the same fate. The Manly - Penrith game highlights the poor refereeing ability of Perenara, is the NRL going to ask for an improvement in his performances?? No league fan goes to a game to see referees in action. You are obviously satisfied with his poor efforts, try writing an article about him and the fact no supporters want his style of over reaction in any future games.
Peter
Guest
It really funny reading your comments Tim and the comments that you have made have certainly stirred the pot with some . Some of the biased comments both for and against Manly make me laugh . I have played representative league and done a lot of coaching also at a lesser level and follow know one these days as my team does not exist to any extent . So in saying that i am not a Manly hater or a Manly lover ....but watching the Manly vs Penrith game it was clear to me that only one team was refereed on the night or disadvantaged . The refs were abysmal to say the least . Reading an earlier comment which i agree with is what goes around comes around . The same thing will happen in another game this weekend or even tonight's SOO game . Cheers ..
Col in paradise
Guest
Yep - they were doing it all day !!!!
Col in paradise
Guest
Yep - they were doing it all day !!!!
Snake
Guest
The flaw in your argument is this idea that Manly's depleted team couldn't execute the usual "penalties conceded" game plan...the game was two tries a piece and the first Panthers try was from a kick to the outside backs...The second try was within the first three minutes of the match so possession and lop sided penalty counts had nothing to do with the first Penrith try. We lost because our entire side was gassed from the all the tackling we had to do...when you make that many extra tackles, your forwards struggle to make ground and the backs aren't as sharp in attack...therefore Penrith could everything that little bit quicker and had stores of energy ready to use whenever Manly had the ball. Regardless of whether you think the penalties were warranted or not, the fact remains that there are far too many variables in a game of rugby league for you to hang your hat on some paper thin argument that Barrett didn't do his homework.
Wild Eagle
Guest
The ref , the bunker , the game plan from Barrett , Manlys dropped ball count , the penalty count, not having a goal kicker or the games best defender plus the reliable defence from Sironen yet Manly still could have won. Some of this was predictable and could be changed for Manly's next visit to Penrith under this ref but if two of the factors out of Manlys control, the atrocious ref and bunker aren't fixed then we can't rely on the Pennies attack to be so impotent to keep us in the next contest. Manlys so called moaning is entirely predictable and valid because they don't want the dopey refs to decide future games. The refs need to confront and deal with their inability to ignore the crowd call for a penalty, whether it is at Brookie or elsewhere. As it stands the ref listens to the crowd on the hill yet treats the captains valid concerns with contempt , it's pathetic
dess Hassler
Roar Rookie
hahaha stay under that rock pendeho your stats mean nothing yeah it evened out in the end but as we all know panthers were given piggyback penalties all night and don't tell me when Manly have to scrape for every inch and the others just get a leg up it doesn't affect you later in a match like it clearly did with Manly in our attack and you could see the panthers just rushing us in the last 20.. why did they have all that energy I wonder LOL panthers completed 32 out of 38. 14 of those are penalties you do realize. you clearly don't understand the game little boy and how players get fatigued. only reason the stats leveled up is because Manly is a good team and our forward pack is great. everyone knows if the game was fair Manly would have destroyed. 2 tries a piece countless tackles in our 20 missing our 2nd rowers and still only 1 try as the other was bullsquirt or do you think it was a try? Judging by your level of intellect I think you do
Sean
Guest
I'm weary of people wielding stats and basing arguments on them from false assumptions, wonky rationales and false correlations. Tim, first point. Manly typically lose the penalty count - but if you look at by how much its usually somewhere in the range of the other side getting anywhere between 20 to 50% more penalities. In this game they got not far short of 400%. Is that not cause for concern? They got awarded a try that was a blatant not try? They shouldnt have complained? You seem to be pushing the idea that the top teams are the most penalised, therefore this is part of a strategy that works for them. You also seem to be saying that these teams deliberately give away penalities in their own quarter, rehashing the old Harrigan argument about Manly. Where is your evidence? You don't cite any in your article. The idea that deliberately giving away penalties on your line is a great winning strategy is daft. Why doesn't everyone do it then Tim? Is it only Manly, Sharks and STorm who have worked out this amazing way to win games. Defending repeat sets in your own quarter kills teams. You then make some ridiculous argument about Manly missing the defence of Jake and Sirro in the Panthers game. Did you notice that manly only let in one try - the other was a no try from a kick. Line breakes were low. You then contradict your argument by saying that Perinara blows his whistle a lot and the refs get heavily influenced by the crowd at Penrith. Thats manly's argument isnt it. Finally, reaching really irritating levels of smugness, you then say Barrett should have known all this and told his team to respond accordingly. He's clearly not as smart as you.
DMac
Guest
Guess what? Manly hates you too.
Don
Guest
I'm currently overseas and didn't see any NRL last weekend. If it were a stitch up - which I doubt - I am so disappointed I wasn't there to see it and revel in the despair of the Coach, the team and the fans. I lived through the 70's and my hatred of Manly knows no bounds. If you think the refs are bad nowadays, Iif you are a conspiracy theorist - get the tapes of Manly's run through the finals in 1978 (including a replayed semi final and a replayed GF). It stunk like last weeks garbage! All I can say to all Manly fans is Ain't Karma a bitch!
Kilgore Trout
Roar Rookie
I support the moose . The penalty count does not reflect where the penalties were given and on what tackle . If you get 2 or 3 quick penalties , early in the count for being held down in attack , there is a good chance you were disadvantaged in receiving them . The " concede penalties in defence " strategy has been working quite well for Manly and the Storm so far this year - why would you change it up ? PS . The card system in the roundball game seems to be pretty well understood by most followers of the game . Supporters clearly know what a yellow card is most of the time . 2 yellows = red . Why isn't this entertained as a simple solution to the hap hazard way the sin bin is currently administered . High /dangerous/late tackle = yellow card . professional foul = yellow card . Yeah I know .... before you say , professional foul is supposed to be a sin bin anyway ...... c'mon , you have to admit it's a lottery at the moment . The refs are scared to use it because it can't be reviewed etc .The decision process for the ref and the fans would be way more clear cut , by simplifying the decision and outcome . Same as the stupid advantage rule !!!!! Another lottery .... Why doesn't the ref put his arm in the air to let everyone know he's playing the advantage and then take it down when he deems the advantage has been taken . How fair and simple is that ? He takes his arm down and yells " play on " . If you throw a stupid pass , or knock it on , or kick it backwards over your head , into one of your own team then field the ricochet for an accidental offside , after that .... well it's too bad . Pack the scrum ! " But they do that in the other game ...... and we're not like them " .
Tim Gore
Expert
The roosters LOST penalty counts like that and won games.
Tim Gore
Expert
I'm sensing some hostility from you...
Tim Gore
Expert
I'm not sure I follow you? say again?
Tim Gore
Expert
Now careful Skeeter, make sure you don't mean nuthin by it...
Tim Gore
Expert
Fair. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
Tim Gore
Expert
The stats arent watery! Theyare great! The title is a tad provocative I'll grant you...