AFL 2017 continues to give us chills, spills and thrills, and all the more so as finals approach on the horizon. Here’s my quick takes from Round 18.
The top four race still wide open…
You might think that five weeks out from the end of the home and away we’d be getting a nice clear picture of who is going to make up the top four, but if anything it is getting more and more murky.
For a while I have thought that there was a clear top three and that one more spot will be filled out by whichever of the pack has the dice fall their way.
However the Giants’ luck has turned against them in recent weeks and they’re being shown up as a side that is not top-four quality – not that there’s any shame in that, given their injury woes.
That being the case, there could very easily be two top four spots up for grab between now and the end of the season if the Giants don’t regain their mojo soon.
Richmond have got to be in the box seat for one of them given they are a win ahead of the pack, and I would pick Sydney for the other as they just keep playing consistent top-quality football.
Port Adelaide and Melbourne are both in with more than a half a chance though, Essendon and West Coast could figure into calculations too but only if the last five rounds get really wacky.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
…But the top spot race is pretty much done
Adelaide’s game against the Cats on Friday night was billed as one that might well decide top spot on the ladder and given how the cards have been dealt this weekend that seems likely to be the case.
The Crows now find themselves six competition points ahead of Geelong in second, and two straight wins ahead of anyone else – a pretty solid lead.
That means for the Crows to miss out on top spot they’d have to drop at least two and have Geelong win all five on the run home.
Adelaide would have to lose at least three matches for anyone other than the Cats to be a genuine chance for top spot at this stage.
Barring a bizarre twist of fate – which would not be at all out of place in 2017 – Adelaide look certain to be the minor premiers for the first time in 12 years.
(AAP Image/Ben Macmahon)
Don’t look now, but Carlton could still win the spoon
Don’t get me wrong – I’ve come a long way towards rating Carlton’s rebuild since I penned a prediction that they’d win the spoon earlier this year.
A swag of Rising Star nominations has been at least a medium-sized thumbs up for the Blues’ drafting under Stephen Silvagni, and Brendon Bolton’s ability to get the team working together as a unit despite their inexperience has been remarkable.
Still, I have been wondering more and more lately whether it’s better to rebuild by teaching the kids to attack or defend.
You can’t decide that philosophical battle off one result, obviously, but if you were going to do it based on Brisbane’s barnstorming win over the Blues, offence wins in an absolute landslide. I was always leaning that way before the game and I still am now.
Anyway, here’s the Carlton doomsday scenario:
Step one – Carlton don’t win another game for the year. They’ve got Geelong, Essendon, West Coast, Hawthorn and Sydney, so I reckon this is likely, especially with no Patrick Cripps.
Step two – Brisbane win two more. They’re only one win behind the Blues but aren’t going to make up the percentage gap. Gold Coast (Round 21) and North Melbourne (Round 23) are the key possibilities here.
Step three – North Melbourne wins one more. They probably need to lose to Brisbane for this to work so it has to be one of Melbourne, Collingwood, Hawthorn or St Kilda. They won’t go in as favourites in any of those, but it could happen.
Of course, it hardly makes a difference in the end, and the most likely result at this stage is that the Lions and Roos play out a ‘Cam Rayner cup’ decider for the wooden spoon in Round 23 – but you’ll have to excuse me for clinging to those few pre-season predictions of mine that are, if only just barely, still alive.
(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
Giant Greene not so jolly
I’m a fan of Toby Greene, which is one of the more controversial things you can say in the AFL bubble these days. If loving the pests of the footy field is wrong, I don’t want to be right.
He can make it hard to stay that way sometimes though. I’m all for giving the opposition a bit of a shake up and playing ‘unsociable’ footy, but you have got to learn where the line is.
Otherwise you just wind up looking pretty dumb. It didn’t help the Giants win on Sunday and having him banned for a couple of weeks is not going to help them win any of those games either.
Given the length of the Giants’ injury list it’s just especially stupid. If I was Leon Cameron I would’ve punched a hole through the wall, Clarko-style.
At least Stephen Coniglio will be back next week, and maybe Brett Deledio the one after – but with the Giants now fighting a battle just to stay in the top four, Greene has given them a headache they don’t need.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Ben Brown blows up the Coleman race
It’s amazing what a difference having a big forward who can kick a bag makes for fans of a team. North Melbourne may have only won four games this year, but I still switch on the telly every week for the Ben Brown show.
I was lucky enough to see it in person this week and what good timing it was that he had arguably his best game of the season, dominating whichever of Michael Hartley or Michael Hurley was matched up on him (which by the way is a highly confusing pair of names for a backline to have, Essendon).
I remember watching him two years ago when he had springs in his hands and thought that when he learned to clunk them he would be an absolute beast – and it has come to pass. Hallelujah. He has so many ways to find a goal.
Joe Daniher booting two goals in the same game meant that for a few brief hours it was a three-way tie on the Coleman Medal chart, before Lance Franklin booted three on Saturday night to re-take the sole lead.
The race is very much open with five weeks to go though, with one of those three mentioned looking most likely to take home the prize.
And just between you and me, Brown is the only one who plays for a team whose season is over, and can afford to funnel it to him as much as possible without worrying about it ruining their results!
Here’s a hypothetical for you – if North land Dustin Martin and Josh Kelly (yes, big if, I know), do they keep Jarrad Waite on for another year just to have a premiership crack? Waite and Brown make a formidable pairing – ten goals between them on Saturday.
(AAP Image/Rob Blakers)
Season over for St Kilda?
I hate to say it having spruiked them for much of the year, but odds are that St Kilda’s season is pretty much over, their hopes of making the finals dashed.
You might scoff at that. They’ve still got a 9-8 record, after all!
But here’s their run home: Port Adelaide, West Coast, Melbourne, North Melbourne and Richmond. There’s probably only one game there where they start as favourites.
To be fair to the Saints, if they can go on a tear through that slate, then they’ll not only get themselves the points but deny their chief finals rivals of them.
That just doesn’t seem likely though, and having the lowest percentage of any side in the finals mix is a killer. They need to do at least one win better than all of Essendon, West Coast and the Dogs in what’s left of the year to get in.
Probably not happening – this week’s results suggest it’s down to the Bombers and the Eagles for eight, with Essendon having the softer run home.
(AAP Image/Tony McDonough)
Bailey Dale has become a must-sign Bulldog
Luke Beveridge said in his post-game presser that the Dogs are likely to lock in a deal with Bailey Dale to stay at the club soon, and fingers crossed for them that proves to be true.
Over the past month he has averaged nineteen touches and nearly two goals a game – and significantly more kicks than handballs. A goal-kicking wingman is something every team needs.
If opposition clubs weren’t interested before then, they certainly will be now, so expect his name to crop up in the trade rumours quickly if the Bulldogs don’t lock a signature down soon.
They should do, though. You’ve got to give enormous credit to the Dogs for creating a club culture that players will turn down dollars to stay apart of, as we’ve seen from the likes of Lin Jong or Jason Johanissen in recent times.
Macca
Guest
Aransan - that sums it up pretty well.
Aransan
Guest
Paul and Macca, I think Hipwood is a great talent and will be one of the AFL's best forwards for the next decade. It is too early to make a call on Harry McKay but he has done as well as could have been expected in his first game. At 200cm and very young for his draft, he has great potential and the Blues have been conservative in managing him.
Macca
Guest
PaulD - Hipwood averages 8.6 possessions, 2.9 marks and 1.4 goals per game over those 27 games. In his debut last year he had 9 possessions, 2 marks and kicked 1 goal. Now obviously Hipwood has played many more games and we have a bigger body of work to measure him on and I am not claiming that McKay is even as good as Hipwood - simply that to claim it is disrespectful to McKay to be encouraged by his performance on the weekend because "11 possessions is nothing to be up and about about" when in fact 11 possessions is a very good effort for a young key forward (to have 9 and take 6 marks in a quarter is very good) on debut (as evidenced by what Hipwood has done this year) is simply ridiculous. I think both players will keep smiles on both our teams supporters for some time to come.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Hipwood has also kicked 39 goals from 27 games. Including some sensational broken play bombs from outside 50. He is a stunning athletic talent. McKay has kicked 1 goal from 1 game. Cool your jets.
Macca
Guest
Mattyb - "show McKay some respect from a football following point of view. 11 possesions is nothing to be up and about about" Just wondering what you think of Hipwood? In 17 games this year he has had more than 11 possessions just 3 times and has never had more than 12. In those 17 games he has also never taken more than 5 marks in a game (again on 3 occasions) while McKay had 6 on his debut. 3 of McKay's marks were contested which again is a feat Hipwood has only managed 3 times this year. Now I think Hipwood is a super talent that has a big future - but I assume you think his performances are "nothing to be up and about about".
gameofmarks
Roar Guru
I would have handed the captaincy to either Priddis or Kennedy. Hurn doesn't inspire me and I hate to think what sort of dribble he gives to the guys in the huddle at the start of each game. If his media pressos are any indication its all about concentrating on the basics and the rest will look after itself. Now that's truly inspirational (not)! Simpson's big mistake was having too much faith in the old guard such as Priddis, Le Cras and Masten. Priddis is only of use to us at the CBD if there is a Nic Nat palming the ball down his throat so he can get a quick handball out to Shuey. With a losing ruck division Priddis is a lame duck in the middle and Simpson would have been better off shifting Yeo in there permanently. A guy who has the strength to win the contested possession and also the pace we have been sorely lacking in the midfield. I reckon Simpson should have also gone with Giles in the first ruck and used vardy and Petire as backup ruck/forwards. Gilesie took the honours against Jacobs in Round 23 last year and showed that he is good enough to mix it with the best in the AFL. Thirdly, as a coach Simpson is plain vanilla. There is no plan B except to switch McGovern up forward. When the side is not playing well in a game the coach needs to try a few things to give the side a kick start. Things like Darling in the midfield or Schofield on a wing (that's where he started his career). Using the ladder predictor the WCE could still make the 8 if just a couple of games go our way. But, like you said Matti, we would just be making up the numbers and would probably go out in straight sets like last year. If the WCE are going to persist with Simpson until the end of 2019 then I reckon we bite the hullet and play the young kids who are fit for the rest of the season; go to the draft and pick up some good young kids who are ready to play next year. Then, hopefully, Simpson will have a side that can challenge for the 8 with a view to a flag in 2020/2021. I personally would rather the gig be given to Summa. If the WCE don't move on Summa now he won't be available in 2019 onwards if Simpson sees out his contract or is sacked after 2018.
Matto
Guest
Did someone say lottery draft?
Mark
Guest
Collingwood have gone longer without a finals win than Carlton. It burns, doesn't it?
Mattician6x6
Guest
Lost is a perfect description,I also think they are getting a reality check as to were the list is at, i don't think we over achieved in 2015 but i do think that it has held back the development/exposure of younger players as they tried to snare one with core 22 from 2015.
Matto
Guest
I agree avoiding a revolving "door situation" is best. Won't be angry if change doesn't happen, nearly everyone should be feeling under a lot of pressure right now. Just looks like they're feeling lost.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Well I'm not exactly jumping for joy but I've stopped feeling bad that my team is bad. Seriously. We haven't looked like playing a final since 2009, I came to terms with us being entrenched terrible for years to come back in 2014 and I knew it wouldn't be till 2020 or so before we were back contending. You get phlegmatic about these things after a while, you have to. It's not your fault as a supporter the team sucks and anyone who allows the fortunes of their football team to influence their disposition in their day to day life beyond Monday mornings needs to diversify their interests in life.
Mattician6x6
Guest
I get it completely , my view on off field staff is we have to many not that they aren't adequate at their respective position which is the bye product of our financial success. I like hurn as captain as I don't really see a natural successor though if he steps aside JK is obvious pick. Can't really answer whether we can get 1 before JK retires that is really dependant on whether we move on players like you've named and others like masten, Schofield etc and don't make similar mistakes as we did after 2015. I have faith in Simpson for one more season but if decided suma is best candidate not in afl system. I just don't want us to go into revolving door mode especially when there are some definite reasons as to why we arr were we are.
Matto
Guest
JK would be solid. If it wasn't for injury he most likely would have been back to back to back Coleman medalist. Your pick matti? I think player cull is step one, players like lecras and priddis will be remembered fondly but at the moment they're just damaging reputations, anyone still with a yr on the contract can stick around at the royals if so desired maybe? It's hard to say the recruiters and off field staff havnt done their job well when we haven't seen their work. Jetta and redden are having seasons better than last year considering the average player performance? And the younger guys have had injuries or didn't get a run. Mitchell, Petrie and vards are pretty much the success stories of our season. I also don't think making a big change to constant failure over a whole season is a knee jerk reaction. Wait for another year of the same for what reason? Summa deserves the gig more than anyone, bleeds our colours. You have confidence Simpson can turn us around and challenge before Jk's peak is over matt? I have none. He struggles to get any reaction from any player.
Mattician6x6
Guest
Who would you elevate to captain GoM? I am as frustrated as you are don't get me wrong and think west coast made some massive blews over last 2 seasons but realisticaly we were not truly going to contend this year and possibly not next year if they keep to their word and bring younger guys in but i don't believe knee jerk reactions are the way we want the club to be run, i believe wce need to cull the off field staff(recruiters, assistants etc) as there looks to be to many people with finger in the pie atm.
Darren
Guest
I thought you would never respond to Macca?
gameofmarks
Roar Guru
And the Captain. He is living a Walter Mitty existence. His presso today was laughable...."mate...I don't know how to answer that" was his stock standard answer today.
hal
Guest
I am not complaining about Essendon getting the number one draft pick, that was trash talk being peddled by Big Four Sticks last year, who as usual was parroting K.B. I argued against the punishments that Essendon received. My point is that getting the spoon is a dishonor not an honor. I am arguing that Essendon should have been finals bound not spoon bound. I would not be jumping for joy if my team got the spoon.
Mattician6x6
Guest
I am not sold on that baz though i understand the sentiment, are you of the view suma is the man as ive seen a few ppl saying that today.
Baz
Guest
WCE need to sack the coach..........
Macca
Guest
So you would say that play isn't typical of the way Collingwood plays? And yet you rank number 2 for possessions, number 1 for uncontested possessions, but 18th for rebound 50's and 13th on the all important points for table. I would have to agree with the commentators at the time who suggested it typified everything that is wrong with the pies. Anyway enjoy your bath, perhaps you can ponder who you next CEO will be, along with your coach.