As we approach the footy crucible that is the finals, already teams are feeling the heat in the desperate slugging matches we’ve seen play out this weekend.
It’s becoming harder and harder for teams below eighth to press for a finals berth given the state of the ladder. As of the end of Round 20, the gap between the Panthers in ninth and the Raiders in tenth has grown to four premiership points, meaning the Raiders need to win two more games than the Panthers to have a shot at qualifying over them.
Four teams are absolutely out of the race, and they are of course the niggling Newcastle Knights, the timid Tigers, the wrangled Rabbitohs and the bloated Bulldogs. All are down the bottom for various reasons, but none have any real shot at the finals, whether it’s because it’s a mathematical impossibility, as for the Knights, or its just down to struggling to have good enough form, as is the case for the Bulldogs.
The Titans are very unlikely, but they are in the most fortunate position of the 18-point logjam given their next game is against the Tigers. However, winning the game after that, against the Broncos, will be a much harder task and will certainly test whether they are finals contenders or pretenders.
It’s an important point that seems to be immediately forgotten as soon as Origin 3 ends each year: finals season is about the best teams in the competition playing for the premiership. The reason fans look forward to September is because the quality of the games increases – and the quality of the teams increases as well.
Having a team with the form of the Bulldogs, for example, playing in the finals wouldn’t make sense. Their season hasn’t earnt them the right to play, it’s as simple as that.
Teams like the Storm and Roosters have ground their way to the top of the eight by playing high-quality football and with an admittedly luckier season than a team like South Sydney, which lost their gun player for the season in the first game. All the same, the Storm have had every excuse to drop from top spot given their whole spine was ripped out during Origin 3, with only Cameron Munster left at home in Origin 2.
Through a great coach and excellent depth they haven’t shifted. As heartless as it sounds, you can only earn the right to a finals appearance if you win games, and usually you need more victories than defeats.
The only teams I can see reasonably sneaking in would be the Panthers and maybe the Raiders, but after the Dragons’ dominant, albeit haphazard, performance over Manly, kicking them out of the eight will be a difficult task. They’ll have to work extremely hard to earn that spot, and that should never change.
Oto shark
Guest
Agreed, its only a matter of time ,but also it keeps more fans involved over the finals , which is usually better for the game also . obviously the lower teams in the top 8 will most probably be weaker then the ones above them ,but it is still a reward for being better than the bottom 8 to be in the finals of a very tough competition .
Bugo
Guest
It's oikee for sure.
William Dalton Davis
Roar Rookie
They'll need luck this year to scrape in on 28. Dragons need to win half of their remaining 6 games to finish on 30 points. 5 of those games are against bottom 8 sides. 3 of those 5 are bottom 4. Cowboys Broncs and Sharks each need one win from their last 6 to hit 30 and the Eels and Sea Eagles each need two wins. The ladder is very congested up top atm with 2 points and F/A separating a second chance/week off and an elimination final away from home. Seen stranger things happen but I'd be very surprised if anyone other than Penrith snuck into the 8.
John Boy Walton
Guest
Top 8 under the current format is better - 5 to 8 are knock out games for instance and 1 to 4 are either advance to week 3 or play winners from 5 to 8 games- Western Bulldogs won the AFL comp from 7th position in the AFL so it won't be long before a team out of the top 4 in the NRL win the comp too.
John Boy Walton
Guest
Teams on 18 can still make it - win 5 games they can still possibly make the 8
William Dalton Davis
Roar Rookie
Current form the Sharks just got flogged by the titans and scrapped out an ugly win against the Rabbitohs. I think their record the last 6 games is 3-3. Over that period off the top of my head I believe they have a 5 point loss to the storm, a 12+ loss to Manly, and a 20 or so point loss to the Titans. A 2 point win over the Tigers, a 30 point win over the Roosters, and a 14 point win over Souths where they pulled away late. They're travelling ok with the heavy origin representation they've had this year but I wouldn't say they're smokies. I'd probably have Storm as the clear leaders with roosters, Sharks, broncos and Manly fighting it out for second. Don't know who I'd say is in the best form though. The Cowboys are a bit of a dark horse atm so I'll leave a question mark next to their name. See how they go this week against the Roosters in Sydney.
William Dalton Davis
Roar Rookie
Also the fact that clubs get more money from sponsors etc just for making the finals. Even if they're only there for one week. I'd say it achieves a fair deal.
Oingo Boingo
Guest
Now now MAX , you and I both know what Shakespeare said about sarcasm.
Adam
Guest
I remember back in the early 2000s my team, the Dragons snuck in with a pretty ordinary record, 12 wins and 12 losses, so not sure what the author is on about, teams 7 and 8 are token entries and rarely advance to week 2. I'd much prefer a top 6
Oto shark
Guest
Its a very physical sport and the competition is one of the hardest in the world. If teams make the eight, they most probably deserve to be there.
Bunney
Roar Rookie
Only if the Broncs and Storm don't face each other in finals. The Broncs just cannot beat the Storm. Saddens me :-(
Hugh Grant
Guest
Two new sides to play it would be better
Hugh Grant
Guest
Not quite right Oingo- the PC lefties would not want scores recorded so no one wins or losers and 16 miniature Telstra premiership trophies are handed out at season end as all 16 clubs are premiers. Such a daft lot PC Lefties
Hugh Grant
Guest
It does you know as you are better than 8 other teams in doing so- Not a very well thought out comment I suggest
Craig
Guest
Agreed. "not deserving or not" is a stupid argument. It's black or white, you won enough games to make the finals you deserve to be there. If you've lost 8 in a row , or won 8 in a row, or won-loss alternate weeks, all the wins are worth the same amount of points. Unless your argument includes teams that have won a few cheap games over the origin period don't deserve to be there...now that's a debate for another time.
Keith Hargreavesform
Guest
Current form and stats show that the storm and sharks are the two best teams apart from injury they should make the finals again come on storm
kk
Roar Pro
Money wise I want a Storm v Broncos G/F. My Crystal Ball now says Broncos v Sharks.
kk
Roar Pro
When Oingo joined the Roar there was a lift in subscriber participation and new standards set.
Albo
Guest
The headline is stating the bleeding obvious. But I guess what every season now shows, is just how important the early season points in the bank can be come this time of year. I have no doubt that there will be a couple of teams make the finals whose form will be on a downward slide whilst there will be a couple of teams missing the 8 that will have finally found their true form for 2017 and could have troubled the finalists, if only ! But that is footy !
Oingo Boingo
Guest
Thin skin cuts easily, just saying .