And then there were four. After three huge upsets in the qualifying finals last weekend – if you stupidly followed my tipping, that is – the Super Rugby season now looks set to play out in the two dominant cities of the competition in 2017: Johannesburg and Christchurch.
The Brumbies going down probably wasn’t much so much of a surprise, but the Stormers turned out one of their more disappointing performances in this back-half of the season.
But that’s all behind us now, and the two semi-finals now both loom as cracking contests.
Qualifying finals: Nobes and The Crowd 4; Digger and Harry 3; Brett [score redacted]
Nobes
“I am still recovering from the early hours I have to wake up for some of these games. On Saturday (for me) everything started at 4:35am and from then on pretty much non-stop until the other two games in South Africa.
“That was not enough and I went on to see my club play here in Argentina. I overdosed on rugby more or less.
“We had a very good round and the teams that won were the ones I expected, however some of the games were much closer than I first thought.
“The semis are up, there is travelling involved, and there will be more travelling in the finals, but this is one of the many reasons why Super Rugby is considered by many the most difficult rugby competition in the world.
“Getting into the predictions, the Lions will have to do much better if they want to overcome the Hurricanes. It will be a nail-biting game if both flyhalves are the designated kickers (cynical me). Something did not look good with the Lions against the Sharks, and the Hurricanes for sure were taking notes on that. They also have too much talent to overcome the travel fatigue, so I will cautiously tip the visitors.
“If the weather is nasty in Christchurch the home team will have an edge over the well-travelled Chiefs. It is hard enough to win at the Crusaders’ venue and it is even harder to win with that many hours on a plane and travelling through so many timezones. On a dry turf, the Chiefs may have a chance, but that is not enough to tip them.
“Advantage Crusaders.
“Good luck in the semis to Harry, The Crowd, and Digg (last chance). Brett, thanks for putting all this together week after week.”
Tips: Crusaders, Hurricanes.
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Digger
“It’s show me the money time and we are down to the business end.
“The Crusaders have had a brilliant season and their clinical performance in dispatching the Highlanders on the weekend should only reaffirm their obvious favouritism, especially after the Chiefs have had to hoof it halfway round the world and then a little more just to turn up in the city. Smart money with the home team.
“The Lions, as well at home, are a formidable obstacle and have everything to play for with a thousand people leaving at season’s end.
“They have had their bad game out of their system against the Sharks and it was most likely the kick up the rear that was required to refocus and sharpen. So the Lions again would be the intelligent play, with the Hurricanes probably still in the air somewhere as I write this.
“But intelligence is not something I have ever been associated with and rightly so, Canes by plenty because it is downright filthy to ever (publicly) not back your own.
“And I’m going the Chiefs because I want to go to a third live Super Final in a row. Careful of those Chiefs, they have a lot to play for themselves given the personal changes they are making – that halves experience may prove crucial.”
Tips: Chiefs, Hurricanes.
AAP Image/SNPA, Ross Setford
Harry
“Now that my naive Stormers have made their traditional early exit from the playoffs, I can catch Nobes again. I’ve never learnt how to tip against my team.
“Lions and Crusaders, please. Home field advantage.
“The Lions need to score early; their flyhalf is a front runner, only. He is not a grinder. Luckily for them, the Hurricanes start slowly.
“The Sharks are a difficult team to play. They are like brutish Rafael Nadal. The Lions are like mercurial Novak Djokovic.
“I wouldn’t overread the score in the qualifying final. Expect the Canes and the Lions to score three to four tries; it might come down to Ruan Combrinck or Jordie Barrett.
“The Chiefs forwards were taxed by the bully Stormers; I doubt they have gas left in the tank to subdue the Crusaders.”
Tips: Crusaders, Lions.
Brett
Only death and taxes are certain, but at this time of season, you can pretty comfortably add home-ground advantage and teams falling victim to excruciating travel schedules.
I genuinely wasn’t sure about the Crusaders this time last year, but as soon as I saw it was still dumping it down in Christchurch last Saturday, I knew they’d get the job done. The weather allowed the Crusaders to play the kind of forwards-led, set-piece dominant game that they like, and they certainly were well in form by the end of the game. I can’t see them let anything slip while ever they can keep playing in Christchurch.
Conversely, the Lions were a long way off their best against a Sharks team that really didn’t ask a lot of questions of them. It wasn’t all on Elton Jantjies, but he’s a huge confidence player; the more shots at goal he missed, the more his head sank, and from there, the Lions had lost their spark, their mojo, and their x-factor all in one.
I can’t see them playing that poorly again, because they’ve been too good a team to turn out two ordinary games on the trot at this point in the campaign. The Hurricanes’ record in South Africa is excellent over the last couple of seasons, but the Lions have the benefit of their own beds, their own routines, and hopefully, a few more of their home fans at Ellis Park.
TIPS: Crusaders, Lions.
Get your tips in now – The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday evening!
The sure thing
The one thing we’re all absolutely certain will happen over the course of this weekend. Well, pretty certain…
Digger
“The stadiums will be a lot fuller than last weekend’s efforts and Jordie Barrett will kick one further than Ruan Combrinck.”
Harry
“At least one Barrett will be in the grand final.”
Nobes
“Both games are worth setting my alarm clock?”
Brett
Someone will comment: “Is Super Rugby still going?” and will think they’re the funniest person they know. Snore…
Bonus: The Players of the Year
With the shadows of the season nearly upon us, I gave each of the guys a conference and a simple task: come up with that conference’s best player.
Digger: Africa 1
“When I consider the four teams across the conference, immediately the player that springs to mind is Siya Kolisi. He has been in excellent form throughout for the Stormers and seems to be far more aggressive and imposing than I can remember in previous seasons.
“Special mention to Ox Nche, who would certainly be my favourite player from that particular conference – a cult hero in the making!”
Brett: Africa 2
I might’ve inadvertently given myself the hardest conference to pick from here, which is low point in clear thinking, but I’m going with Lionel Cronje.
In the space of half a season, the Kings flyhalf went from journeyman to the Springboks squad, inherited the Kings captaincy, led them on a wonderful tour of Australia, and by season’s end had led them a lot further up the ladder than anyone imagined.
Cronje was an okay but not spectacular player for the Brumbies in the Jake White years, a slightly better but still not spectacular player for the Sharks, but had a wonderful season for the Kings. He ran at the line and linked with some really exciting outside backs exceptionally well, defended excellently, and his goal-kicking was quality.
As the season went on he just better, and so did the Kings with him leading the way.
Nobes: New Zealand
“I am not saying nothing new by finding the New Zealand Conference the most competitive this year. There is so much talent in every one of the five teams that it is unfair to choose one player.
“So, first I must decide in what merit that player is chosen, how can I compare a prop versus a fly-half, or either of them against a fullback and so on.
“As hard this is, I have decided for one player, who leads Super Rugby in carries (215), clean breaks (31), defenders beaten (67) and metres (1304). Also, he came in second for off-loads (28), points (199), and tries (10).
“Probably by those stats you already know that I am talking about Chiefs fullback Damian McKenzie.”
Harry: Australia
“Chris Alcock from the Brumbies tackled like a demon, slowed opponents’ ball without being caught too much, broke tackles when he ran, brought brutish balance, and generally just got busy.”
Got a different Player of the Year in your conference? Let us know in the comments below, and enjoy your rugby this weekend!
eeds
Roar Rookie
Re Malbec - I have a few Chilean friends down here in Coyhaique who would disagree
ukkiwi
Roar Rookie
Blues could have an outstanding year and still finish 5th in the NZ conference. They will come right and they finished in the top 8 in competition points even though they didn't have a great season. They will only improve under Tana. I said in a facebook group at the end of last year 'beware the Auckland Blues for 2017' maybe next year. C O M E O N T H E C H I E F S ! ! !
Loftus
Guest
The Highlanders played with 14 men for 70 minutes and only lost by 1 point!
taylorman
Guest
grooan, another one lost to the quagmire of rugby... :-(
taylorman
Guest
Well, One thing I'm certain of is if BBBBB plays 'well' Canes will most likely win, and if both BBBBB and JBBBBB play well, finals in NZ. Thats they key to the whole match right there, regardless of what else happens.
wyn
Guest
Mooi DaveSA - 40000 is remarkable. What were the crowds like a couple of years ago when the Lions were struggling. I'm sure those 95000+ knew which game they would rather watch as do the MCG crowds I was referring to. Sadly, in the case of the current Melbourne rugby union offerings a trip to the MCG has to be better than what is happening down the strip at AAMI park. That is coming from someone who grew up with rugby, has not missed a test match or SR game in Melbourne in the past 15 years and has watched and enjoyed a few live AFL games and numerous broadcast games.
Highlander
Guest
Stand corrected , we should add Munster as well for completeness. But the point remains, he is a huge Hurricanes fan, always supports his own side, all in good humour, as do most ex player commentators. To call this NZ rugby arrogance is just lazy and slanted, and is of zero disrespect to the Lions.
Suzy Poison
Guest
Well maybe if Cullen said: "The Lions haven't lost at Ellis Park this season, but I think the Canes will be too strong!" or something along those lines, it would been better. The "No Doubt" sounds arrogant in my books...but we'll see. The Bookies have the Canes favourites too. I think a lot of folk are paying too much attention to last years results. I think The Lions have improved from last year. Also whilst the Lions haven't played a Kiwi team this year, folks are forgetting, there are now nine or ten Bok players in the team. The international experience (and winning international experience) would have improved their confidence to make these Lions players better players. Of course you can also argue, some of the Canes players also have the experience of having played against British and Irish Lions. It's just that's a lot less Canes are internationals. Look the Canes are an awesome team, I just think the Lions will be super fired up, and won't have a bad game like last weekend. Dan Coles is a big threat, I'll concede. I think as big a threat is Kwagga Smith. He didn't play for the Lions last year. This year he has been awarded five man of the match awards, this year alone.
wyn
Guest
My pleasure Machooka ... and if it wasn't any good, it would not be perennially popular ;)
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Isa is the Argie that left for NH pastures.... He was truly good.
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Last week I said that I was very worried about dodgy calls from refs and TMOs. There were dodgy calls despite Brett suggesting that refereeing level has been better this year in SR. I think that cane's YC was one. But dodgy calls become important(er) when the scores are close. Finals rugby usually generate close games. This is why I worry again about the refs and TMOs. I don't want a TMO to keep insisting to look 20 times so that the ref from his own country YC a player from a different country. Peyper should have said no. I also think that the Lions got a little lucky with the tackling a player without the ball ... I wish to be wrong. But, I personally don't like Jackson since he penalized the Pumas scrum a few years ago because the scrum half put the ball in prior to his order. And the Wallabies won.
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Fionn, I used to travel a lot between Spain and Italy. In both places they asked me who made the best "jamon". Jamon de bellota or prosciutto. My answer is that i don't care, they are both delicious. I like cabs from Napa and from Bordeaux, plus the ones the Aussie make. But, alas, regarding Malbec, only the Argies count. Some from Cahors are tasty too, as a few that are now made in CA, but they taste different. The bottom line is that if they taste good, I don't care which one to choose. Same with asados, braais, barbecues (as you know, my spouse is from North Carolina and she claims they know how to cook pork the way it should...).
Darwin Stubbie
Guest
Wellington ?? .. think you'll find he played for Manawatu
taylorman
Guest
Yeah that's true but for me some are making too light of a now very settled, well rounded, well coached Lions side at home. I get the 'haven't played' Kiwi sides bit but it's just as much the same case with our sides not playing the Lions. When the other Lions side came here NZ sides adapted terribly to a different style of play and that could happen here. Winning semis in SA I'd say are fairly rare and for a good reason. Going for a Lions win on that basis alone. The Canes have run cold when up against sides that have pressured the gainline and subdued Barrett and in that respect the Lions have been more consistent, plus they've also put fifty points on sides like the Tahs as well so they have plenty of scoring power as well.
taylorman
Guest
Yes that would probably be better for the competition though kiwis will naturally be wanting an all .NZ final but to be honest I've had watching important games in the rain, bog and mud. Watching the Lions Sharks match in the bright daylight sun was a welcome relief from the black and grey of our south. Christchurch needs to seriously look at a covered stadium which means at least all home South Island matches are played in good conditions. Not a high priority for them at the moment understandably but while they're in rebuild why not look at a covered stadium filled with light to brighten up the place and show again the rest how they really are the greatest Super rugby side.
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
I hope Charlie Ngatai's can remain injury, as he is a great player... he can kick, pass great stronger runner and defends well.... lets see this weekend how he goes with ALB in tow ... very strong midfield...
Nobrain
Roar Guru
Damian for sure will have more chances to play for the ABs in the near future, Ben Smith is taking sabatical. TKB is going abroad and I read somewhere that Hansen would like to see Damian as a scrum - half. Unless a very big wallet comes around I hope we see him in a black outfit more often.
Faith
Guest
The Lions I've noticed do not play a rush defense which seems to be the one things that stops NZ teams. That said the Lions like an NZ team always seem to find a way and expect to score more tries. If they start well it'll be a long day for the Canes methinks ... who I feel tend to switch off games especially at the beginning. I think both games will be much closer than we think and luck will have a large role to play. I am very wary of S.A TMO's as pointed out in the thread below ... the cards stuff is a very big deal ... discipline will be huge for this game.
Fionn
Guest
With you there, BB. Had the best barbecue of my life at some Afrikaner's farm in Cederberg. That braai was changing experience, and doubly good with the wine from Stellenbosch.
Dcnz
Guest
Man of the season: Sam Whitelock. Bolter of the year: Ngani Laumape. Most tries by a team: the mighty Hurricanes. Most likely winners: Crusaders.