The first week of Super Rugby is behind us and safe to say, it played out as expected
Three New Zealand teams have progressed to the semi-finals along with a lone South African team.
In the first semi-final the Crusaders will take on the Chiefs in Christchurch in what is going to be a blockbuster game that will leave Australian rugby fans such as myself feeling very nervous about the upcoming international fixtures.
Continuing on from their dominant season, the Crusaders kept the Highlanders scoreless in last weekend’s quarter-final. The terrible conditions did nothing to stop the Crusaders’ attack, especially in the forwards where they were particularly dominant.
The Chiefs, who had the more intimidating task of taking on the Stormers in Cape Town, delivered a scrappy, hard-fought win to secure their spot in the last four.
Teams
The Crusaders will field a very strong side with plenty of All Black experience, especially in the forward pack. Owen Franks, Sam Whitelock and Kieran Read were instrumental in their pack’s dominance against the Highlanders and should continue their outstanding play.
Israel Dagg and Ryan Crotty headline the experienced backline, while Seta Tamanivalu will look to continue his attacking prowess which was limited due to the horrendous conditions last weekend.
Tamanivalu has scored 7 tries and made 706 metres for the Crusaders this season.
(AP Photo/Mark Baker)
After resting a number of players for the final match of the regular season, the Chiefs named a full strength team against the Stormers. Brodie Retalick and Sam Cane will look to nullify the Crusader advantage in the forward pack after performing well in South Africa.
In what will be Dave Rennie’s final season with the club, the Chiefs will try to unleash their dangerous backline, which struggled to perform against the Stormers.
Aaron Cruden, veteran Stephen Donald and leading try-scorer James Lowe will look to add on the team’s 199 clean lines breaks in the 2017 season.
Key matchups
The big matchup in the backline is between the two fullbacks, Damian McKenzie for the Chiefs and David Havili for the Crusaders.
Both star players are dangerous in attack, deadly in broken play and solid in defence.
Havili has crossed the line eight time for the Crusaders this season while making 1138 metres off 164 carries, while McKenzie has scored six times for the Chiefs. McKenzie will also likely retain the kicking duties after saving his side’s season in Cape Town.
In the forwards, the Crusaders hold a very slight statistical advantage, with a 96% ruck succession rate compared to the Chiefs’ 95%.
Keiren Read will play against Michael Leitch in a battle of number eights while the other key matchup will be between the two All Black locks, Brodie Retallick for the Chiefs and Sam Whitelock for the Crusaders.
History
The two sides most recently met in May this year where the Crusaders edged past their opposition 31-24. However, history is on the Chiefs’ side with the Waikato team winning the matchup on the four previous occasions.
While the Crusaders are the most successful Super Rugby team, winning the competition seven times during an era of dominance spanning back to 1998, the Chiefs have had more recent success winning back-to-back titles in 2013 and 2014.
Prediction
It is damn hard to pick to predict this game; both teams have played outstanding rugby this season and it is shaping up as a fantastic contest.
The Crusaders have come off a near unbeaten Super Rugby season and will enjoy a home ground advantage in this weekend’s semi-final. The experience and talent are especially noticeable in their forward pack, which will set a platform for their exciting backline to work from.
The Chiefs are the underdogs but go to Christchurch with history on their side. Though they may be wearing after their inter-continental quarter final matchup, the livewire team should never be written off, especially with the like of McKenzie and Lowe in their player ranks.
While their team statistics are eerily similar, it’s hard to see past the exceptional season and winning record that the Crusaders have put together this year. The men from Christchurch will put their recent losses to the Chiefs behind them, not letting them stop their run to the Super Rugby final.
Crusaders 33-22.
Buk
Guest
Another very good summary - thanks Simon. Hope the conditions improve on last week's - pity they can't transfer the game to Brisbane, or to the covered stadium in Dunedin, as those backlines are such outstanding entertainers on their day.
Sylvester
Guest
Just not sure this Chiefs team has the all round quality of those that have had an ongoing hoodoo over the Crusaders. However, just needs a cracking game from a McKenzie, Retallick or Tim NW etc to turn the result.
Jacko
Guest
Go the Chiefs. Just 2 more games to win
Duncan Smith
Guest
What's wrong with Simon as a name? Some of my best friends are called Simon.
Brent Horstor
Guest
And I bet that is some fratboy nickname that you decided to adopt. Not appropriate in the slightest.
Brent Horstor
Guest
Now he's mansplaining. I identify as male, but you still assumed my gender.
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
I have been looking for this match up all week ... On a dry track, I thought the Chiefs could takes this ... On a wet night and slippery surface, the pendulum is swinging the other way ... Rugby supporters who have no currency in this result are all gushing over the AB front row and the rest of the pack who are all AB;s except one. But the Chiefs forward pack are no slugs either The Crusaders run on side of Joe Moody, Codie Taylor, Owen Franks, Scott Barrett, Sam Whitelock, Jordan Taufua, Matt Todd and Kieran Read are obviously formidable. The Chiefs with Kane Hames, Nathan Harris, Nepo Laulala, Mitchell Brown, Brodie Retallick, Liam Messam, Sam Cane and Michael Leitch have mixed it with the best before and if they are over the travel fatigue, they are not going to go away! Damn the weather influencing the way the game is going to be played as I was really looking forward to the clash of the back, in particular 10, 12 and 13 ... well let's see what happens ... but still supporting the underdogs here! ....
Akari
Roar Rookie
I've tipped the Chiefs as I trust that Rennie will have prepared his team to give all and not leave anything in the tank.
Muzzo
Guest
Yep Chook, the Chefs, or should I say the Chiefs, ( the missus just walked in!), will have to contend with an AB front row, plus a half, when the subs run on. This, I think will be the difference, especially, if it's going to be another dismal weekend, & a wet track. I would feel far happier, if they were to take the game next door, to the Paceway, as they have one of the finest wet weather tracks in Australasia there. lol. . Looking forward to the game,, but being a Mainlander, & we do know about wet weather rugby, I'll be going with the Saders. Geeez it's hard not to be bias. Along with that I'll be looking at Diggers lot, to do the job in Jo'burg. Cheers.
Simon Douch
Roar Guru
Hey Brent, Glad to know what you think about my name, what did you think of the article? Believe it or not, that is my real name, so perhaps you should comment with some relevant sports opinion instead of getting hung up on trying to make the world a better place. Cheers, Simon
Brent Horstor
Guest
Oh he's doing it again. Simon, the surname... what are you trying to achieve with this?
Jaydon Campbell
Guest
Travel a massive factor. Agree Crusaders to push through on what should be a cracking game!
Smiggle Jiggle
Roar Guru
I don't think it will be a high scoring game. +6 to the Crusaders.
Machooka
Roar Guru
Excellent comments both gentlemen... and gotta say I now feel more informed as to this game's outcome. Not! For mine this contest between these two fine teams will be a brutal encounter, especially if the conditions are to be what you're forecasting OB. And yeah... stay in the sheds if you're not a forward. Keep your jersey clean at least. I still can't help but think those Saders will nudge a win here... but if there's a team that can ruin that outcome it's the Chefs. Tipped the Saders... but c'mon Chefs and serve it up to 'em :)
Old Bugger
Guest
Incentive, will be the key for the Chiefs T-man. Losing their most successful coach and 5 key players who have all put their bodies and souls on the line for the Chiefs, will be IMO, the key for this team to lift themselves once again over and above the travel weariness, imposed upon them from their SA return. Also, the fact that everyone has written them off, will also play a role with lifting the team to perform. And lastly, I think the memories of their Fiji match will also get the Chiefs brewing up, a response. They would feel as though they were on the receiving end of some dubious decisions in Fiji which provided 2 tries to the Saders, for an eventual 7pt win. So it comes down to a miserable wet, freezing cold and probably sleet-falling evening match between two sides each filled with a forward pack, to go out and belt the living daylights out of each other. Personally, I think both backlines should just stay in the changing room and let these packs, go out and steam-up the paddock, like the geysers in Rotorua. But, my last wish is for the man in the middle, to disappear and just let, the belting begin. He can blow his toy only when, the ball is dropped, it's kicked into the stands or when, a try is scored. In between times, he should join the backlines, in the change-rooms. No good calling upon the rugby gods to ensure a blast from the past will play out cos, they've already signalled their intentions, with providing a blast from the south......a bloody wet and freezing blast, to boot. Bugger!!
taylorman
Roar Guru
Now lets see, being a typically selfish Blues fan Ill probably have to go with the Saders because a Chiefs final win puts them second equal on the champs charts with the Blues, who's only distinction is the titles, even if they were before Hillary conquered Everest or Columbus proved the world wasnt flat... despite very human for a million years looking up at the obviously spherical moon and sun every day and night. Anyway, I digress, a Chiefs win would be a good send off for Rennie and Smith so Im provably really split on that one, but I guess Id really like to see the Saders with a post quake title finally.?
lassitude
Guest
Surely you're missing the single biggest factor for this game - the fact that the Chiefs have flown to Africa and back within 10days. Their bio-rhythms must be well cocked up and the question is whether they can last the distance and/or whether their subs can hold or augment the energy gap. Oh and it's been raining here in Christchurch for the last few days - pretty solidly. It's supposed to clear tomorrow but be about 0-1 degrees Celsius for kickoff (and I'd expect a slippery surface as well) and going to -4 overnight. The forwards and kicking game and defense are all in for a work-out (for both sides). I'm not expecting a McKenzie/Havilli running extravaganza.
canadiankiwi
Guest
Crusaders to win by 8+. On paper, the Chiefs have a very powerful lineup that matches the Crusaders. However, many of the Chiefs' veterans are out of form or passed their best days from 2012-2015- Messam, Leitch, Bird, Elliot, Cruden, Ngatia, and TNW are all out of form in 2017 or on the downside of great careers. On the other hand, only Romano in the Crusaders' pack and maybe Dagg are on the downside of the careers or out of form.