Will it be another Bledisloe Cup victory to the all-conquering All Blacks – or are the Wallabies about to experience a sudden form reversal, and knock off the best nation in the world?
» Wallabies vs All Blacks Bledisloe Cup live scores, blog
Let’s be honest – it’s probably going to be the former. Almost certainly. If it’s the latter, we will all have our jaws hanging open at 10 o’clock tonight.
The simple facts are that New Zealand haven’t lost their grip on the Bledisloe Cup for thirteen years now, and Australia have won just six Bledisloe Tests against the Kiwis in that time.
New Zealand have won the last five meetings in a row between the two nations, including four Bledisloe Tests and the 2015 Rugby World Cup final.
That doesn’t mean Australia can’t pinch the odd Test against the All Blacks here and there – and here, at ANZ Stadium, is the most likely place for it to happen.
Of the six Bledisloe Tests the Wallabies have won since they last held the cup, three of them have come at this ground, including the most recent one.
But still to pull that off, the Wallabies will have to see a significant reversal of their recent form, both at club level and as a national team.
In their three June Tests, the Wallabies recorded passable but uninspiring wins over Fiji and Italy, and a disappointing loss to Scotland.
More concerningly, in the 2017 Super Rugby season, Australian sides played against New Zealand sides twenty six times, and the final record was… 0-26 in favour of New Zealand.
What about the All Blacks? Well, after a tied series with the British and Irish Lions, they look probably as vulnerable as they have in recent years – which isn’t very much.
They defeated the Lions 30-15 in the first Test, but then lost the second 21-24 and drew the final match 15-all.
It wasn’t technically two losses in a row, but it was the first time the All Blacks have had two consecutive non-win results since… scrolling, scrolling… they lost to the Springboks and Wallabies back-to-back in 2011.
They haven’t played three Tests without winning at least one of them since 1998. The odds don’t bode well for the Wallabies.
If there had been something dramatic that happened to reverse the respective fortunes of either team in recent weeks, perhaps we could make an argument for the Wallabies’ chances of an upset.
But all that could qualify is the ARU’s decision to axe the Western Force, which you’d think is more likely to be a distraction than a boost.
In the end, perhaps all Australian rugby fans can hope for is another unexpected twist in the tale, one which will see the come from nowhere to claim victory.
(AP Photo/Rob Griffith)
Key information
Kick-off: 8pm (AEST), Saturday August 19
Venue: ANZ Stadium, Sydney
TV: Live, Fox Sports 501, Network Ten
Online: Live, Foxtel Now, Foxtel App, Tenplay
Betting: All Blacks $1.05, Wallabies $9
Head-to-head: All Blacks 127, Wallabies 48, seven draws
Last five: All Blacks 5-0 Wallabies
Squads
Wallabies
1. Scott Sio, 2. Stephen Moore, 3. Allan Alaalatoa, 4. Rory Arnold, 5. Adam Coleman, 6. Ned Hanigan, 7. Michael Hooper (c), 8. Sean McMahon, 9. Will Genia, 10. Bernard Foley, 11. Curtis Rona, 12. Kurtley Beale, 13. Samu Kerevi, 14. Henry Speight, 15. Israel Folau, 16. Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17. Tom Robertson, 18. Sekope Kepu, 19. Rob Simmons, 20. Lopeti Timani, 21. Nick Phipps, 22. Reece Hodge, 23. Tevita Kuridrani
All Blacks
1. Joe Moody, 2. Codie Taylor, 3. Owen Franks, 4. Brodie Retallick, 5. Samuel Whitelock, 6. Liam Squire, 7. Sam Cane, 8. Kieran Read (c), 9. Aaron Smith, 10. Beauden Barrett, 11. Rieko Ioane, 12. Sonny Bill Williams, 13. Ryan Crotty, 14. Ben Smith, 15. Damian McKenzie, 16. Nathan Harris, 17. Wyatt Crockett, 18. Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 19. Luke Romano, 20. Ardie Savea, 21. TJ Perenara, 22. Lima Sopoaga, 23. Anton Lienert-Brown
Prediction
We’d all love to be optimistic about the Wallabies, probably even New Zealand fans, who must almost be approaching getting sick of winning by this point. There’s not much reason to be right now, but perhaps they can give us some tonight, even if they fall well short of an actual victory.
All Blacks by 15 points
Fin
Guest
Kerevi will get dragged. Plenty of guys missing one on ones but Samu is struggling positionally.
Tooly
Roar Rookie
Just started and we're in with a chance that useless Wayne Barnes is referee !
TC123
Guest
I'm picking you're a little short man George
Morsie
Guest
Here's my prediction. We have a back 3 who not only can't kick but are under instructions to not kick. So the Kiwis are going to kick it to use all night and force turnovers then score at will. The second prediction is that they will focus A LOT on stripping the ball off us in the tackle. I predict a drubbing because the coaches selection policy and tactics are garbage. I also hope like hell I'm wrong.
Peter
Guest
Is that like SBW the shoulder charge specialist? Oh no, what a terrible thing to say about an All Black and therefore saint. BS on your part.
Dave
Guest
Which is what you should get on a daily basis.
Dave
Guest
Maybe the Aussie media have been employed by the Clown to try and beat the ABs off the field?
Dave
Guest
U confuse it with the laughing the Kiwis produce, the whining emanates from you shackle-draggers, as it will again after tonight's game.
Dave
Guest
Prime
TC123
Guest
Ok. No skills then
Chivas
Guest
Grow up? From a person who uses this forum to bring up an ugly incident, which had no relevance or context except to actually say something attention grabbing and ugly... And as much as you might say it is a plug for anti-domestic violence.. it wasn't. It was you using such a sad event to promote your own opinions. So not entirely convinced I'd be taking my cues from someone like that. But even putting that aside, heart in the context used meant ticker and the work ethic to give it everything in a game situation. You reference to going to a Wallabies public day, once again lacks relevance or context. I'm sure they all love their mums too, but what that has to do with ticker, work ethic and honesty in a test match beats me. I actually think Foley shows plenty of ticker, even when he gets run over. Beale and Folau on the other hand can be hit and miss. Genia is always trying regardless of whether he is having an on or an off day. I am not sure it is as much about heart as it is about cohesion and fighting for one another. How many occasions have we seen in recent years players in the Wallabies frustrated at one another. People on here love the drama queens like Quade and think the team needs more of it. Others see people like that as flawed and self-serving and lacking in real heart regardless of how much they enjoy playing up to their fan base on public days.
Adrian
Roar Rookie
Who has the high balls? Is a giraffe playing?...or do you mean a cocktail? But yes, I'm backing Folau to play a blinder too Freddy
Highlander
Guest
We were behind the posts , not great seats
Adrian
Roar Rookie
Spot on Jake. I'm fully over them, after sympathizing with them all along. The inference is that if you come from "over East" you hate them, .... without checking out what you really think. They have turned it into a self fullfilling prophesy One thing their language here and in other blogs proves, is they they are more rugged than Rugger!......no way to get on the good side of the ARU chaps
twodogs
Guest
We've gotta support our boys regardless. The state of our Rugby is not their fault. There are numerous factors pointing to the decline in stocks. I gather it's mainly hierarchical. My local rugby club ceased operations a few years ago. Participation rates are low. The cure could take years. I remember the NRL poaching the likes of Michael O'Connor and Ricky Stuart for example. Geez Rugby was all class back then. We gotta get young'uns interested again. Anyway do your best Wallabies no matter the result.
Fishboy
Guest
I don't think anyone is suggesting they aren't good blokes, for the most part, but I think everyone is struggling to understand how they couldn't win one, that's right not one, game against a Kiwi team this year. If they are fit, which we are told they are, and skilful, as we are told they are, then head and heart are the only things left it seems. Reminds me of the great Ron Barassi story about him asking one of his young charges "Is it ignorance or apathy?", to which the response was "I don't know and I don't care". We've all seen, and perhaps been lucky enough to be involved with, teams punching above their weight. For the most part, for a decade, the Wallabies have been punching below theirs. And I was at the Greatest Game Ever Played in 2000, and know what it can look like! Anyway, I'll watch every minute of it, with no concern for state or the ARU. Don't care the score, as long as they give it a proper go.
Boosho
Roar Pro
So much for the famous depth? Give the excuses a rest mate.
Jumbo
Guest
Despite all the media rubbish floating about, the abs would not be taking the wallabies likely. It's going to be a tough contest, always is, some times the score board doesn't suggest so. But I could not imagine playing high intensity like that for 80 minutes, only the players themselves know what it's like out there. The all blacks just win those small moments, when they take an opportunity and it comes off, if they don't they lose. There's such little in it sometimes, but that's test footy and i love it.. go blaaack
Boosho
Roar Pro
How on earth can you be so cynical in one post and so mind-numbingly naive in the next one?
taylorman
Guest
Oh I'm sorry, I thought you were so keen not to sweep things under the carpet, particularly ancient and non relevant ones, so I thought I'd better remind you of the real state of oz rugby while you try a bit of sweeping yourself. Just trying to help?