Ten quick takes from AFL Round 22

The penultimate round of the home and away season has been run and won, and boy, it was a great excuse to use the word ‘penultimate’. Here’s my quick takes from a cracking weekend of footy.

Hogan is the hero Melbourne needs and deserves
Great AFL careers are built on legendary feats of heroism and you won’t find many more remkarable than Jesse Hogan’s bag of six on Sunday.

Three weeks ago Hogan copped a broken collarbone when Melbourne lost in Hobart, and it seemed like his season might be over.

That was a big worry for the Dees. The loss put them in doubt of making finals and the injury meant that if they did they would still be missing their forward spearhead.

But they needn’t have worried in the end. Hogan turned around his injury in quicktime and then returned to deliver a season-defining performance.

Melbourne ultimately only got over the Brisbane Lions by 13 points, so having a player like Hogan contribute six goals was crucial. I could show you the math but I don’t think I need to.

That means the Melbourne are playing finals this year and all going well they’ll have their “great white hope” ready to be the man up forward when they do.

It’s all the more remarkable when you consider that on top of the broken collarbone Hogan has been through personal tragedy following the death of his father this year, as well as a cancer scare.

To face and overcome such a slew of challenges is more than most of us would want to handle in a decade, let alone a single year.

To rise above them all and then deliver a performance that drags a team into finals after a decade of disappointment is nothing short of Herculean.

(Photo by Daniel Pockett/AFL Media/Getty Images)

The Harley rides again
If you love watching great football then you’ve got to love Harley Bennell, he’d have to be in the conversation alongside the likes of Lance Franklin and Eddie Betts as the most wonderfully watchable footballers currently going around.

To see him make his debut for the Dockers after two years out of the game with persistent calf injuries was just marvelous, and for him to boot a pair of goals in the first quarter even better.

The match overall wasn’t a great result for the Dockers – in fact, it was downright atrocious, and marked a second big-margin loss in as many weeks.

There’s so very much to like about the attacking power and dominant ability of a midfield with the likes of Nat Fyfe, Lachie Neale, Brad and Stephen Hill, and now Bennell too.

Bennell spent the majority of the match forward – which wasn’t a place that saw a lot of action for the Dockers – but if he can build up his tank and gain trust in his legs then he’ll play midfield again.

If poor results for the team like this continue though, eventually we’ll have to ask and answer the question of whether Ross Lyon is the man to make the most of the talent Fremantle have available.

Fingers crossed that all goes well for Bennell from here. He’s only 24 after all and with a bit of luck can play a ton of good footy between now and when his race his run.

If he does then footy fans in general and Fremantle fans in particular have much to look forward to.

(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

‘Grand final preview’ one incredible entree
Friday night’s match between the Adelaide Crows and the Sydney Swans was the most anticipated home and away match of the year, billed as a grand final preview, and it didn’t disappoint.

It was the Sydney Swans who ultimately came away with a three-point win, but you shouldn’t be dismayed at all if you’re a Crows fan.

By many statistical measures – barring, of course, the scoreboard – it was the Crows who were the more impressive team.

They finished the night +51 disposals, +23 contested possessions, and +21 inside 50s, as well as recording seven more scoring shots.

On top of that, the tenacity they showed to fight their way back from an early deficit was particularly encouraging, given it’s a scenario they faced and failed in last year’s finals series.

(But by the way, for all the talk about the crucial 50m penalty that cost the Crows, no side who has that kind of advantage and doesn’t capitalise can reasonably complain about an umpiring decision.)

If – hopefully when – these teams meet in September, both of them should be able to take confidence from their performance in this game – the Swans knowing they got the points, the Crows knowing they played the kind of footy that can beat Sydney, even if it didn’t on this occasion.

If that match does indeed arrive as the 2017 Grand Final, it’s hard to imagine a more tantalising prospect to decide the year.

(Photo by Mark Brake/Getty Images)

Cats vs Giants a crucial crunch-time match
This week’s matches have thrown up a number of interesting potential finals scenario depending on how things go in the last week of the home and away season.

What’s clear now – although we had suspected it for some time – is that Saturday night’s match between the Geelong Cats and GWS Giants at Simonds Stadium will be absolutely crucial.

The most likely scenario is that these two clubs will play in consecutive matches, as they are likely to be paired up in a qualifying final in the first week of the post-season.

Who gets home advantage in that match will be determined by who wins the sample taster on Saturday night.

It’s an incredibly hard match to tip – on one hand the Cats will be missing Joel Selwood, and while that hasn’t tripped them up so far, the Giants are the best team they’ve faced yet while in this situation.

On the other hand, Geelong are notoriously good at getting the win on their home deck, while GWS are notoriously bad at defeating the competition’s best sides away from home.

Of course, this scenario could still be heavily affected by other results – if the Crows lose again GWS have the potential to finish top, if Richmond win out they can overtake the Cats.

Anything’s possible, but what can be said for sure is that we’re set for an excellent match on Saturday night, and more to come when September begins.

(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)

The pros and cons of selling home games
It would definitely be too great a leap of logic to say that the Bulldogs selling a home game to Ballarat has cost them a finals berth – but the topic is still worth considering.

The Dogs are well known for how excellently they play Etihad Stadium, and the advantage they would have over an interstate side like Port Adelaide there is significant.

Playing the first AFL game in Ballarat instead does negate this advantage – but given they ultimately fell short by a solid margin of 17 points, it’s debatable whether or not it would’ve been enough to make a difference.

Selling home games obviously has a big financial advantage for clubs. Not only do they make a significant profit on a game-to-game basis, but it also gives them free advertising in front of a new base of untapped fans.

In terms of competitive ability, it can be a boost as well. Hawthorn have a great record in Launceston, and North Melbourne have learned how to play the wind in Hobart expertly, delivering two upset wins there this year.

However that’s not always the case and you’d only have to ask a Richmond fan about the club’s short-lived experiment playing home games in Canberra to find out why.

It’s a debate that will be around in footy as long as the practice continues, and like most things it’s not about whether or not you do it, but how well you do it if you do.

Either way though, the Bulldogs are more or less officially out of the finals race (barring some surprise results next week), and become the first club to drop out after winning the flag since Hawthorn in 2009.

Their 2016 premiership win was quite similar to the Hawks of 2008 or the Bombers of 1993, and the good things those sides went on to do should give Dogs fans faith that if they make the right decisions now there’ll be more joy to be had in years to come.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

‘Comeback story’ one win away from completion
As the rest of my pre-season predictions have – either quickly or gradually – become highly embarrassing one by one, I’m glad to see that Essendon are just one step away from making finals.

All the Dons need to do is defeat Fremantle at home next weekend and they can officially lock in a September berth, though they’ll likely need to travel interstate in the first week.

It’s a story that will warm the hearts of Essendon fans, and hopefully most neutral fans can get around it too, because the Bombers play exciting, watchable footy.

The debut of Josh Begley on Saturday night, kicking two goals in the opening quarter, was another reminder of the depth of young talent they’ve acquired over the past few years, particularly in the forward line.

They’ve got a quality side as it is now, but there’s names like Aaron Francis, Jordan Ridley, Alex Morgan, Mason Redman, Kyle Langford and Jayden Laverde who can all become quality players in the next few years.

A return to finals will be sweet for the Dons, a first finals win in a decade would be even sweeter, but most appetising of all for the red and black faithful should be the knowledge that they have plenty to look forward to in 2018 and beyond.

(Photo by Jason O’Brien/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Nine million bucks for Josh Kelly? Where do I sign!
Josh Kelly has played many elite games of footy this year but on Saturday against the West Coast Eagles played his best of the year and of his 80-game career to date.

43 disposals was not just a career-high for him, but the most ever gathered by a GWS player in the history of the club, and he had eight clearances as well.

More impressive than the raw numbers though was the courage he showed in his collision with Josh J Kennedy, and the tenacity to come back on and play out the game.

Most blokes after having their brow split open by the 103kg Coleman-leading power forward would be done for the day. I would probably be in bed for a week.

Instead Kelly came back on to the field, used a classy kick to set up the match-winning goal for Shane Mumford, and then booted one of his own as the icing on the cake.

When it was first floated at the start of the year that North Melbourne had put in a nine-year, nine-million-dollar offer for him, many questioned whether the Roos would be overpaying.

I don’t think there’s any kind of doubt like that now. Simply put, good things happen when he gets the ball, and he gets the ball very often.

In the words of the great Phillip J Fry: Shut up and take my money.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Bolton beating Clarko caps off promising start to Carlton career
It might sound a bit funny given they’ve had 13 wins from 43 attempts, but Brendon Bolton’s first two years as coach of Carlton have been a rousing success.

There wasn’t any better way to put an exclamation point on that fact than with a boilover seven-point win against the Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday night.

Not only did it bring to an end a fourteen-game losing streak by the Blues against the Hawks, and a nine-game losing streak in the latter half of this season, but the symbolism of Bolton scoring a win against his mentor Alastair Clarkson adds another layer of satisfaction.

Under Bolton the Blues can boast six Rising Star nominees and would be every chance to get another one in Jarrod Pickett his week.

But his impact at the club is just not something that can be measured in numbers and statistics, at least not yet.

Instead there’s a feeling in the abstract that Carlton is a much happier place to be, a playing group that has a future, and a team that opposition sides should perhaps not yet fear, but at least respect.

For mine, the biggest thumbs up is that they had their chance to take a win that would mean they avoid the wooden spoon, and they grabbed it with both hands.

It would’ve been easy to sidle back and accept another No.1 draft pick into the fold – but the desire to win that this kind of result represents will certainly prove much more valuable.

(Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)

Cam Rayner Cup next week with spoon battle down to two
Well, it has come down to this – next week on Saturday afternoon Brisbane and North Melbourne will meet at the Gabba, and the loser will finish eighteenth and claim 2017’s wooden spoon.

The match will no doubt be known as the Cam Rayner Cup, as the loser stands to collect the No.1 draft pick which, if they don’t trade it, will surely be spent on picking up the most promising eighteen-year-old in the country, the Dustin Martin-esque Cam Rayner.

Those who’ve read me in recent weeks will know that I’m no fan of acquiring wooden spoons and even though a No.1 pick would be nice, it’ll bum me out pretty significantly if North end the year on the bottom of the table.

That certainly seems the most likely result. North have only one win from their last twelve and that was a lucky one, Brisbane have been in good enough form to be a mid-table team since the bye, and of course also have the home ground advantage.

I will say this – if North do cop the wooden spoon, they could make an argument for the best season by a wooden spoon winner in modern history – five wins is something only two spoon teams have managed in the last thirty years and North have a better percentage than either.

(Of course, the official best season ever by a wooden spoon winner is and always will be Fitzroy 1916, who finished on the bottom of a four-team competition where everyone played finals, and then won the premiership.)

Obscure stats aside, here’s the reason I don’t want to win the spoon: since 2000, only one team that has won the spoon has also won a premiership – the Western Bulldogs, and even that took them from 2003 to 2016, a lead time of thirteen years.

Ah well. One way or another it will be a game worth having at least one eye on, even if it’s not going to have any impact on the impending finals series – and there’s no one who that’s more true for than the Rayner family.

(Photo by Robert Prezioso/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Surely more cuts to come at over-the-hill Eagles
The West Coast Eagles might not have played all that poorly on Saturday at Spotless Stadium, in fact they gave the Giants a bit of a fright, but the end result was as expected – their season is over.

The oldest list in the competition now finds themselves missing out on finals just two years after playing in a grand final. The downward curve of the arc is unmistakable.

Rather than try to eke out some more success from the old guard and drive the club further into the doldrums, the best course of action will likely be to do some hard cutting now and give new green shoots room to grow.

Matt Priddis and Sam Mitchell have already declared the closing of their careers, signaling the end of an era at the club.

With one match left in the year, a home game in front of their loving fans, the time has come to make a few cuts and let them play one last farewell.

Sam Butler, Mark LeCras, Sharrod Wellingham and Josh Hill must be among that group. None of them has offered much this year and there’s no reason to suspect they would in 2018.

As a North fan I’d love to see Drew Petrie play on somehow and his form deserves it, but the best thing for the team is likely to be that he finishes up too, and he’s always been a team man.

Eric Mackenzie is out of contract too. He’s probably worth retaining another year but if another club wants to pick him up as a free agent then letting him go wouldn’t be the end of the world.

The other matter to consider is Shannon Hurn who is the captain of the club and contracted until the end of next year.

His form has certainly been good enough that he should play on and fulfill what’s left of that contract, but West Coast do need to eventually look towards a new generation of leader – it’s hard to pick from the current crop who that is, though.

Whichever way they go, the decisions that West Coast make this off-season will shape their future.

Their situation isn’t at the level of catastrophe yet, but an ounce of prevention could prove to be worth a pound of cure.

(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)