An early scene in A Beautiful Mind, the story of economist John Nash who was portrayed in the movie by Russell Crowe, describes insight that inspired the work that won him the Nobel Prize for Economics.
Nash observed that when he and his mates were in the pub and trying to pick up women, they were blocking each other by all chasing the prettiest one, consequently scaring her off, ignoring her friends and leaving everybody without a date.
Nash surmised that this competitive behaviour, which had previously been regarded in classical economics as a primary motivator for people to achieve the best economic outcomes, could result in these sub-optimal outcomes.
Consequently he developed Game Theory, which is used to predict the outcomes of what is described as “strategic behaviour”, competing and achieving a sub-optimal outcome, while proposing solutions such as trust building measures to encourage cooperation where this is likely to create a better outcomes. I think it may give us some insights into Bernard Foley’s disappointing kicking performance in Bledisloe 2 in Dunedin last Saturday night.
Having observed Foley over the last four years, he has proven to be a player who has made up for not have the natural array of skills that peers like Quade Cooper and Kurtley Beale have through sheer tenacity.
Foley fought his way into the starting ten position for the Wallabies by being supremely fit, aggressively competitive, being willing to take his chances in the big moments and by doing what he is good at right. And what he is good at he is very good at, in particular his running and support play are world class, and until problems set in last year so was his goal kicking.
(AAP Image/Richard Wainwright)
Foley has also proven willing to extend himself, with evidence that he works hard to take on new skills when he is lacking. At the beginning of the last World Cup I had never seen him throw a cutout pass when opportunity deemed one necessary, but during the England pool match he attempted one to Rob Horne on the left wing.
It was off the mark and I remember the look of frustration on Foley’s face at the time, but he by the end of the World Cup he was making the same pass to good effect.
To me this is evidence that Foley needs time to bed down each new skill before it becomes a core part of his game. And it is my observation that when he tries to apply too wide a range of skills too quickly that his entire kicking game, from the tee and the hand, falls apart.
Aside from the misses at goal, last year he missed the sideline with penalty touch finders with monotonous regularity. This year has taken to not attempting to get the distance to make the most of the opportunity, a poor outcome for the team.
This is where Game Theory comes in. Foley has stated that his fierce competition with Quade Cooper for the ten jersey has made him a better player and the range of skills that he has acquired over the last couple of years is evidence of that.
However, there is also evidence that Foley’s aggressive pursuit of that jersey is leading to some sub-optimal behaviour, in particular insisting on conducting all the kicking duties when there are other players who could help out. As we have seen it may be leading to instances where none of the kicking gets done well and the game is lost.
Perhaps Foley needs to be assured that if he, for example, hands over the penalty touch finder kicks to Kurtley Beale or Dane Haylett-Petty that it will not reflect poorly on him? Similarly, perhaps he needs to know that if he is out of sorts on the first couple of goal kicks of a game, that his jersey will be safe if he asks Beale to take over for him for the rest of the game?
It should be apparent to anybody who has closely observed the way Bernard Foley conducts himself as a Wallaby, that he does not have a lazy bone in his body. The absolutely gutted look on his face while he was being interviewed about recent suggestions that there was a lack of commitment on his part, should reinforce that view.
To me he has been doing the job long enough now for the coach to know what he is capable of and barring a calamitously extended drop in form, he should be assured of his position while looking at ways of using the people around him to manage his mental load.
Jokerman
Roar Guru
Charlie needs to meditate and stop grinding his teeth ! Analysing (from the mind) gets you nowhere, Charlie. You really have to figure this stuff out. Choose peace for a change ?!~
Jokerman
Roar Guru
Oh come on Kenith, you can do better than that. Just a shallow repeat of what I said. Baggage, narcissism it just shows itself beneath the writing....and I made comment. Enter the Zen, Ken !! And try and lose that stubbornness. It's a barrier for you. You're afraid to break it down...
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Guest
I think the timid, vulnerable aspects you see in Rhys, J'man, are simply projected observations within yourself
zubrick
Guest
foley is not international class wallabies will not win any silverware whilst bernard is the no 10 thats a fact our potential champion no 10's of the future have gone to the nrl and afl...identified as teens and supported to the hilt i will keep following the wallabies...sadly all i wish for is the odd win here or there against tier one nations and no losses to the tier two sides bleakness pervades
marto
Guest
Those extra thumbs that Bosley have are from Total Clown syndrome or trisomy 21 which is a genetic disorder caused by the presence of all or part of an extra 28th chromosome & gravel for a brain. Often clown syndrome, and especially in Bosleys case, is associated with some impairment of cognitive ability (a big tick in his box) and physical growth (ie. Extra fingers & thumbs) as well as facial appearance (simple). is usually identified at birth but with Mr Bosley it`s definitely late onset….
marto
Guest
And the Italians and Irish
Ruckin Oaf
Guest
So you said earlier that ". a yellow every 10 tests is a reason not to select him.." and then .."Hooper’s disciplinary record is irrelevant.." I'm having a bit of difficulty reconciling here. Is it that a poor disciplinary record is an issue except when one of the players is Michael Hooper. Or is it that a poor disciplinary record is only an issue if Foley is the incumbent. Is a poor disciplinary record a reason not to exclude or not ?
Ruckin' Oaf
Guest
Put Cooper at 10 and Foley at 12 and that's about the result you'd get.
Ruckin' Oaf
Guest
Mark Ella, Michael Lynagh, Stephen Larkham, Elton Flattery. In my time I've seen some pretty good fly-halves in gold.
Charlie Turner
Guest
Cooper, the comment was so poorly assembled the only lucid remarks were, Foley strikes the ball ok, and somehow, he has the choice of retaining the kicking duties (or not). The former is simply false, Foley stabs at the ball and because he's to square to the target (chest open) at impact does not get his head over the ball, the latter is absurd. I think you've been a bit self indulgent, pragmatic possibly, ignorant probably!
Whistle away
Roar Rookie
Yes, it shows a level of rigidity that is difficult to fathom. It is frustrating to observe his decisions when I would love to see some alternate options with the 10,12,13 combinations. Ultimately; michael's neck, michael's call, though. I think that is the right system to have, but it is just unfortunate to watch a coach lacking the introspection and flexibility required in that system for it to be most effective.
Cooper Morrison
Guest
Nonsensical if you choose not to try to understand it knucklehead What he's saying is ditch the subjective BS and be pragmatic when looking at a player's performance
Rhys Bosley
Guest
I am sure Quade and Bernard would.
PeterK
Roar Guru
very true you need to be on board or you are out. Trouble is there a true search for the best plan / use of talents before the game plan is decided? I suspect not and that is the bigger issue. If everyone has an opportunity to give feedback without repercussions and develop the game plan from their perspective then yes you expect total buy in.
piru
Roar Rookie
Do you think if we taped Foley and QC together and put a big jersey on them anyone would notice?
piru
Roar Rookie
This is one of the main things that annoys me about Cheika - he starts with 'his' game plan and then goes to find the players to play it. That's not a national coach's job. He should be picking the best players in the country and then coming up with a game plan to use what he has - I don't think he's able to do that
Whistle away
Roar Rookie
PK, it comes down to Chieka preferring a player that plays his game plan and doesn't deviate off the script too far. Ultimately, power and control are his main drivers and he manages this by providing certainty for a few and keeping everyone else guessing. I would suspect he subscribes to the theory, loyalty first and skills/talent second. Interestingly, if you get the balance right, the lack of the latter solidifies the former. I think his selections reflect this.
Ruckin Oaf
Guest
Obviously when Foley is on the field scoring tries is no problem. The AB's, the Boks. the Scotts, the English - they've all managed to score tries thanks to Foley :)
Fionn
Guest
Fair enough. If this is to be the team then they have to practice nothing but scrummaging, kicking, defence and restarts for the next 2 weeks. Everything else was pretty good.
Rhys Bosley
Guest
Mate, I'm getting a bit sick of the debate about Cooper vs Foley because it isn't really what the article is about, so last post on that topic for me. Hooper's disciplinary record is irrelevant, he isn't competing with Foley for a spot. And here is a more accurate record of Cooper's test yellow cards prior to the one last year and this year. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11520310 For mine the biggest worry is that he consistently made the same mistake with high tackles this Super season, they are so tough on that nowadays that it is just asking for trouble.