What a finish to the regular season coming up. Four teams all vying for a spot in the top eight, but only three can progress.
The Cowboys, Panthers, Sea Eagles and Dragons have had vastly different seasons. Their is no clear cut team deserving to miss September football. Each have had solid periods and conversely more lacklustre weeks.
It is going to come down to three games. Just who can get it together when everything is on the line.
It all start on Thursday night. If the Cowboys can beat the Broncos they will book their September berth. The most consistent of the four teams over the course of the season, the Cowboys have been ravaged by injury over year, and particular in the last month.
While injury will blunt what might have been a premiership charge, the Cowboys have always been valiant and full of effort. This is a game that these sides have easily got up for in the last few seasons.
The Broncos must be hurting after a big loss and that could affect them in plenty of ways. The Cowboys hold their destiny in their own hands and playing at home will go down swinging.
Should the Cowboys win it will put massive ramifications on the Sea Eagles versus Panthers game on Saturday night at Lottoland. The loser of that clash would then have to hope that the Dragons go down on Sunday to the Bulldogs.
If the Cowboys lose they would have to hope that either the Dragons lose, or the Panthers win and dent the Sea Eagles for and against in the process.
The Panthers weren’t at their best on Sunday. The seven-game streak had to end at some point, and their scrappy performance on Sunday afternoon kept the Dragons’ season alive.
Errors and penalties at crucial times cruelled their chances, nothing personified their afternoon more than Dallin Watene-Zelezniak being stripped of the ball and conceding a try when they should have been starting their set on the 40m line.
The Panthers have been widely criticised for only beating teams in the bottom eight in their resurgent run. In this competition you don’t ever win seven in a row or 11 of 13 if you aren’t a good team. They have played some teams with their seasons on the line over that period and always had the play at the death.
They will have an idea going into Saturday about what a win will mean for them. But with the Sea Eagles looking seriously shaky over the past six weeks, they will fancy their chances.
The Sea Eagles brought their season back from the brink on Sunday afternoon. Down by 7 with seven minutes to go some brilliance by Tom Trobjevic and Daly Cherry-Evans got them out of jail.
(AAP Image/Paul Miller)
It continues a very unconvincing run for them. First it was the 52-22 loss to the Dragons. Since then they have been dominated by the Storm, pipped by the Tigers and embarrassed by the Bulldogs. In among that they came back to shock the Roosters.
The Sea Eagles are the worst defensive team of the four teams chasing a spot. It has been particularly evident of late. Mid season they looked a chance of being top four. This has evaporated quickly. They have lost touch with games and important ones at that.
As with all these teams it comes down to one game. They are at home with everything to play for, the motivation should be easy. If the Cowboys win they simply must win, if they lose, they wait on the Bulldogs. Even if the Cowboys lose, if the Panthers beat them, for and against would come into play and may bundle them out.
The Dragons game is simple. At least one team will still be on 30 points come kick-off on Sunday. The Dragons with a superior for and against will need a win to make the eight
The Dragons started the game full of promise, even leading the competition at one stage. They have slid down the table since mid season with some pretty ordinary football.
To their credit, they have been gritty and courageous on their day. The last ten minutes or so of their match against the Panthers was text book in terms of closing out a match. They will fancy their chances against the Bulldogs.
The verdict?
The Cowboys have been valiant and will be again on Thursday. The Broncos though owe the Cowboys a few heart breakers and will be fired up after the loss to the Eels. Brisbane will get home in Townsville, but not by much.
It will set up plenty of intrigue for the game on Saturday. The Panthers have lose Dylan Edwards but a loss is sometimes better than a win. For all their work at the back end of the season, a finals berth off two straight losses isn’t what you want.
They will expose the Sea Eagles defence again and continue a good run against the Eagles in the process. They loss will push the Eagles back down past the Cowboys in the process.
The Dragons will be stunned early by the Bulldogs. The Dogs look like a team with nothing to lose and that can be better than playing for everything. The Dragons will get home, but not by much, off the back of a Widdop master class, relegating the Sea Eagles to ninth.
Bunney
Roar Rookie
Can I just say I love this line: "The Panthers weren’t at their best on Sunday. The seven-game streak had to end at some point..." Um, yeah, just after they attempted to win the 8th game in sequence!! And yes, the Panthers are posers. They've beaten no one. Manly with a 14-4 penalty count, and a decimated Cowboys, both at home. Not even close to beating a team from the top 5, and lost to the Cowboys away, and to the Dragons twice. 11 of their 13 wins have come against the bottom 7. 9 from the bottom 5 teams. Their loss to the Dragons is an insight into their form. Not good enough. Cowboys will lose to the Broncs, Sea Eagles will beat the Panthers and Dragons should beat the Dogs. It hurts me to say it, but the Cowboys will miss out...
Fish
Guest
If making the eight went to those who deserve it for heart and effort, the Cowboys would be specials. Unfortunately for them that is not how Rugby League rolls. I think the eight is decided. The Dogs will beat the desperate Dragons. The Mighty Sea Eagles will beat Penrith by a score to finish 6th, and the Cowboys will surprise a disjointed Broncos. Having said this I have not taken into account the Referee Factor. When I take this into account, I have no bloody idea!
The Barry
Roar Guru
Dragons are going down to the Dogs!!!
Mals
Guest
Home ground advantage. Farewelling club legends Stewart, Matai & Ballin beforehand. Cowboys will lose narrowly to the Broncos on Thursday ensuring by Saturday that it is a nice to win game for Penrith but still a must win game for Manly. Manly's points differential will still be worse than the Cowboys so they won't want to wait until Sunday and rely on Dogs to beat the Dragons.
Kenw
Guest
Who doesn't have a healthy dislike for the Sea Eagles! Seriously though, it doesn't take bias to point out that Manly have been abysmal recently, They've had 3 straight games against bottom of the table teams and won 1 in Golden Point (and only because the Warriors completely self-destructed). They've shown there's a capability for some decent footy in there somewhere but I'm baffled when I see that Manly are currently slight favourites with the bookies this weekend. Can anyone explain that?
realist
Guest
The only thing your article shows is your dislike for the Sea Eagles..........you make it sound like the Panthers are specials! I tend to disagree, especially after what Peachey has said in the papers. It will only motivate the Sea Eagles & i have a feeling the Panthers are in for a hiding!
Albo
Guest
The way I am seeing it , I expect the Broncos to regroup and beat off the Cowboys on Thursday night. The size of the loss could be vital to the Cowboys hopes of hanging onto a spot in the 8 after Sunday. I expect the Dragons to comfortably beat off the Dogs hoodoo on Sunday and possibly ultimately take the Cowboys spot in the 8. The Saturday game between the Panthers and Manly is a toss up for mine with the Panthers missing Edwards & Moylan, they are very limited. And Manly has been wobbling for weeks. If the Cowboys go down to the Broncos as I expect, the points differential become vital to the Cowboys and the loser of the Manly v Penrith match . Whilst the winner will clinch 5th or 6th ( depending on the Sharks at Newcastle). With all 3 teams on 30 points today I expect the Cowboys to be left on 30 and the loser of the Manly v Penrith to stay with them . The points for and against come into play with the current status being Penrith (+61) , Manly (+24) & Cowboys (+34). St George who I believe will beat the Dogs to also go to 30 points are already ( +89). If Manly win , Penrith have a current buffer of 27 points over the Cowboys that they need to protect or be eliminated. If Penrith win Manly could be in big trouble being 10 points behind the Cowboys today , depending on the Thursday night impacts on the Cowboys for and against. If however, the Cowboys beat the Broncos on Thursday night, then they will be through, and the Panthers v Manly loser is in big trouble and would be eliminated, unless the Dogs can upset the Dragons. Looks to be an anxious final round for a number of teams and their fans hoping to make the finals. For me, it looks like the Cowboys might be the unlucky ones to miss out ( on points for & against) unless they can beat the Broncos on Thursday, as I lean slightly to Manly with the home ground advantage to beat Penrith, but not by too many points that would eliminate Penrith. So , as a regular Jonah, I bet have now cruelled a couple of these teams !!! And the result will be completely different to my predictions.
Adam
Guest
The Cowboys won't beat the Broncos on Thursday night, and Manly will beat Penrith, who were fairly ordinary against the Dragons, and will be without Dylan Edwards. That just leaves the Dragons, who will get the job done against the Bulldogs and finish 7th, with Manly in 6th. Penrith has a points differential of +61, against the Cowboys' +34, so the Panthers will finish in 8th but will be bundled out in week one
Kenw
Guest
If they make it, week 1 for the Dragons could be against Cowboys, Manly, Panthers, Sharks or Eels. Only a mad fan would back them to go all the way (muh hah hah?) but even a more rational mind would give them a fair chance, or even have them favourites, against a bunch of them.
Peeeko
Guest
As a dragons fan I'm surprisingly ambivalent Coming 7th or 8 generally means mad Monday is delayed by a week as you really gave no chance in the finals It also means club staff and management can pat themselves on the back despite losing half your games Considering they have had no Scott and JT the cowboys deserve to delay their mad Monday by a week