Well, this is it. The final day of the NRL season is here and two out of the three games have an ability to directly impact the final make-up of the top eight and positions.
This is your one-stop shop to all the scenarios for the final day of the season.
While two games have the ability to direct finishing positions and the make-up of the eight, one of those, as well as the final game of the day could, by absolute miracle, change who ‘wins’ the wooden spoon.
For reference, this is how the top nine and bottom two looks with three games of the season to go.
Pos. | Team | Points | F/A | Already qualified? | Position locked? |
Finals | |||||
1 | Melbourne Storm | 44 | 297 | Yes | Yes |
2 | Sydney Roosters | 38 | 72 | Yes | Yes |
3 | Brisbane Broncos | 36 | 164 | Yes | Yes |
4 | Parramatta Eels | 36 | 39 | Yes | Yes |
5 | Cronulla Sharks | 32 | 61 | Yes | No |
6 | Manly Sea Eagles | 32 | 40 | Yes | No |
7 | Penrith Panthers | 30 | 45 | Yes | No |
8 | North Queensland Cowboys | 30 | 24 | No | No |
9 | St George Illawarra Dragons | 28 | 89 | No | No |
Wooden Spoon | |||||
15 | Wests Tigers | 16 | -170 | N/A | No |
16 | Newcastle Knights | 14 | -212 | N/A | No |
So, with all that in mind, here is how the final day of the season will shape the top eight.
Venue: McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Time (AEST): 2pm
This is a game that, unless it produces a ridiculous result probably isn’t going to influence the make-up of the top eight.
For anything to change, the Sharks would have to lose by at least 22 points, which was send them behind the Manly Sea Eagles on the ladder.
They would still have ‘home’ ground advantage next week, but be playing the seventh ranked team in the second elimination final, instead of the eighth in the first elimination final.
For Cronulla, it probably doesn’t matter a great deal, but right at the moment, a game against the Panthers or Cowboys seems a lot easier than one against the Dragons if they win.
As for poor old Newcastle, they’d be out to do a whole lot more damage than 22 points if they are to avoid the spoon. They need a 42-point turnaround, so a big win and hoping for a miracle later in the day is where it’s at for them.
Venue: ANZ Stadium, Homebush
Time (AEST): 4pm
Now, this is the game you won’t want to miss a moment of. I’m pretty sure I won’t be able to sleep (well, I’ll have the answer by the time you’re reading this), because for Dragons fans, the equation couldn’t be clearer.
A win over the Bulldogs will mean the Red V finish seventh. There are no questions to be asked because their for and against is superior to the teams ahead of them, so they will leapfrog the Cowboys and Panthers.
Townsville meanwhile, will dress itself in blue and white on Sunday and hope the Bulldogs win, keeping them in the finals. Their for and against means that even on 30 points, they will miss out if the Dragons are to make the eight.
Because the Panthers weren’t beaten by 38 points or more on Saturday by Manly, they can’t miss the finals and will finish either seventh or eighth, depending on whether the Dragons win.
Venue: Leichardt Oval, Sydney
Time (AEST): 6:30pm
This match obviously has no ramifications on the top eight. The Tigers and Warriors have struggled all year and as a result, sit at the bottom of the table.
The Tigers could still pick up the spoon though. As already mentioned, the Knights will probably need to win heavily, while the Tigers lose heavily, resulting in a 42-point for and against turnaround.
It’s unlikely, but stranger things have happened (not many, mind you).
With all that being said, here is the Week 1 finals picture as it stands.
Equation 1: If Dragons win and Sharks win or lose by 21 points or fewer
1st qualifying final: Melbourne Storm (1st) vs Parramatta Eels (4th) at AAMI Park
2nd qualifying final: Sydney Roosters (2nd) vs Brisbane Broncos (3rd) at Allianz Stadium
1st elimination final: Cronulla Sharks (5th) vs Penrith Panthers (8th) at TBC (Allianz or ANZ)
2nd elimination final: Manly Sea Eagles (6th) vs St George Illawarra Dragons (7th) at TBC (Allianz or ANZ)
Equation 2: If Dragons win and Sharks lose by 22 points or more
1st qualifying final: Melbourne Storm (1st) vs Parramatta Eels (4th) at AAMI Park
2nd qualifying final: Sydney Roosters (2nd) vs Brisbane Broncos (3rd) at Allianz Stadium
1st elimination final: Manly Sea Eagles (5th) vs Penrith Panthers (8th) at TBC (Allianz or ANZ)
2nd elimination final: Cronulla Sharks (6th) vs St George Illawarra Dragons (7th) at TBC (Allianz or ANZ)
Equation 3: If Dragons lose and Sharks win or lose by 21 points or fewer
1st qualifying final: Melbourne Storm (1st) vs Parramatta Eels (4th) at AAMI Park
2nd qualifying final: Sydney Roosters (2nd) vs Brisbane Broncos (3rd) at Allianz Stadium
1st elimination final: Cronulla Sharks (5th) vs North Queensland Cowboys (8th) at TBC (Allianz or ANZ)
2nd elimination final: Manly Sea Eagles (6th) vs Penrith Panthers (7th) at TBC (Allianz or ANZ)
Equation 4: If Dragons lose and Sharks lose by 22 points or more
1st qualifying final: Melbourne Storm (1st) vs Parramatta Eels (4th) at AAMI Park
2nd qualifying final: Sydney Roosters (2nd) vs Brisbane Broncos (3rd) at Allianz Stadium
1st elimination final: Manly Sea Eagles (5th) vs North Queensland Cowboys (8th) at TBC (Allianz or ANZ)
2nd elimination final: Cronulla Sharks (6th) vs Penrith Panthers (7th) at TBC (Allianz or ANZ)
Roarers, how do you see the final day of the NRL season playing out? Drop a comment and let us know.
Scott Pryde
Expert
I completely agree with you that it's unfair, but when there's better options available, the NRL are going to milk it for all it's worth. Funnily enough, one of the main reasons this started was 2010, when upwards of 20k fans were locked out of Kogarah for the Dragons vs Manly.
Matt
Guest
... so could I ask for your timely opinion on this subject, as no one is going to listen until debacles like this are protested against. If the Dragons were to win today, they should rightfully be holding a home game at Kogarah next week, just like the Storm, Cowboys, Broncos, Titans, Warriors, Raiders, Knights, Roosters, Rabbitohs, and now Eels are entitled to whenever they finish the higher. Likewise, if Manly were to finish in 6th, then rightfully they should be hosting at Brookvale. Its so much more than seats for people to sit. It's blatant discrimination, because everyone knows 1300Smiles Townsville only holds 25k at a stretch.
kingcowboy
Guest
Going to grab a Kebab n put on my cowboy hat n cheer the mighty Dogs on today. Nothing could make me feel as dirty as cheering on Manly last night. Dogs owe a big performance for Reynolds n Graham!!!
eagleJack
Roar Guru
We might be watching that statement as we speak :)
Renegade
Roar Guru
Agree with all you've said mate and yes I am a supporter ? But I do genuinely think we will see a different Sharks side in the semis.... I'd hate to be the team playing them in week one.
Scott Pryde
Expert
Hi Matt, Yeah that's right mate. Finals must be played at big grounds in that states capital city.
Matt
Guest
Scott, as far as I understood, neither Manly, Cronulla, St George, Penrith, or Tigers were entitled to home ground finals any longer. Are you able to confirm or otherwise? There won't be games played at Southern Cross or Brookvale next week and that means Manly fans would have to travel all the way across the bridge and we know how many who think that's too far.
Johnybulldog
Guest
Nice one BigJ,enjoy n take care mate!
Johnybulldog
Guest
Good luck Scotty.
eagleJack
Roar Guru
I should have said "I can't see the Sharks losing to the Knights by 22 points". Which is the basis for Equation 4. I actually think the Sharks need a big win today. I think their supporters just believe they will turn it on come Finals time. But I'm yet to see defending premiers do that after bumbling their way through a season. It usually doesn't end well. So many other factors at play when you're the hunted, and the Sharks are no different. They look tired. I imagine Flanno would want a statement today. They can't move higher than 5th, but a bit of momentum would certainly help.
Ben Lewis
Roar Pro
Two things about the scheduling of the finals: 1. I think it's an absolute disgrace that Cronulla have to take their home final to either Allianz or ANZ. You put it at Southern Cross you'll get a sell out crowd of screaming Sharks fans and give Cronulla a bonus for finishing in fifth and earning a home elimination final. No way will Allianz sell out and ANZ has no chance in hell. Let the Sharks host at Cronulla and the Sea Eagles host at Brookvale, for that matter; for all the same reasons. Suburban grounds deserve the finals; granted I wouldn't give them a prelim, but there's no good reason they can't have an elimination final. 2. The Storm v Eels is the first qualifying final yet will be played on Saturday afternoon at 4:10 (no doubt kick off at around 4:40) while the second qualifying final (Roosters v Broncos) will be played on Friday night at 7:55 (no doubt kicking off at around 8:30). Logic :P
Oingo Boingo
Guest
But they have been and can be beaten , the Roosters went awfully close in Melbourne against a run a dubious refereeing decisions. The history of league is littered with unbeatable teams coming unstuck on grand final day . They aren't even in the GF yet , and I think you'd struggle to get too many people willing to put their life savings on them from here .
Wayne Turner
Guest
Can't compare 2009,to this. Penrith had key players in Edwards and Moylan out injured yesterday. Whare played fullback. If Penrith fields the same team as yesterday,they will lose the first week of the finals,no matter who they play.
Kenw
Guest
As a Dragons supporter I'd be happy to (...make the finals) play Manly week 1 because we clearly match up well against those boys. The games this year were both blowouts and I think the last 2 finals we played were 28-0 to the Saints as well (not that relevant but still nice to bring up!) But I can understand a Manly supporter also preferring us to the Panthers 2 weeks in a row. Too much chance of the result being reversed. I think the last time that happened was 2009 when the Dragons played the Eels 2 weeks in a row. Dragons toweled them up in rd 26 (36-0?) and then Hayne caught fire week 1 of the finals for the Eels to win week 1 of the finals.
Renegade
Roar Guru
I actually think the Knights could win EJ, Sharks have absolutely nothing to play for.... the game doesn't matter to Cronulla (they'll be 5th regardless) but it sure will for the knights on old boys day. The Sharks will be wanting to avoid injury and get through this match with as little effort as possible with an eye on next week... mentally I don't think they'll be up for this and I would not be surprised with a loss.
eagleJack
Roar Guru
Agree with all of that, but we won't be playing at Brookie again unfortunately
eagleJack
Roar Guru
Yeah the more I think about it, the more I'm leaning towards wanting to play the Dragons! Aaaargh. Oh well whatever happens I reckon both games will be tight. No blowouts in either scenario. Good luck to your lads today mate. No doubt you'll be hanging out for 4pm all day!
Haradasun
Guest
St George have always been a bit of a bogey team for Manly. Manly will have the upper hand v the Panthers who they will meet again at the Fortress. And after Peachey's ridiculous comment that the Panthers were the better team (maybe he was including Perrenara in the Panthers squad?), I am sure Walker and co will be keen to serve it up again to the men from the mountain. So on that basis I will be cheering on the dogs today too. It looked to me like the Manly defensive line really missed Siro there and it's good to see him back fit and firing.
Scott Pryde
Expert
Old Boys Day, a spoon to avoid and a side who want to make a statement to close the season after last year's 62-0 thumping at the same ground? Yeah, I think it could happen as well.
Matth
Guest
I think the Dragons will get home, but it will be tight. It also wouldn't surprise me if the knights get up.