Brisbane and Manly can't win this years premiership. Here's why

By jamesb / Roar Guru

With the regular season done and dusted, we are entering that wonderful time of the year where the top eight finals series commences in that windy spring month of September.

From my personal perspective, season 2017 has flown by so fast, it has left a shadow behind. It seemed like yesterday when the Wests Tigers sacked Jason Taylor as coach. That was after Round 3.

The top eight teams who qualified for the finals are Melbourne, Roosters, Brisbane, Parramatta, Cronulla, Manly, Penrith and North Queensland.

As for the teams who will miss out on the eight, they should ready themselves for a Mad Monday that lasts a week and go on overseas trips to Las Vegas and Bali.

Meanwhile, Melbourne Storm won their third minor premiership in the space of seven years. They are so consistent, the Melbourne Storm and minor premierships seemed to go hand in hand just like Torvill and Dean, where they have pretty much skated away from the rest of the competition this year.

However, will the Storm get the opportunity to produce their own ‘Bolero’ moment on grand final day? With the big three of Slater, Cronk and Smith playing together for one last time, the purple brigade from bleak city will be hard to beat.

With the Storm so dominant, it feels like the remaining seven teams in the top eight are making up the numbers as they are so far behind. In fact, some of the teams are so far behind, they actually believe they’re leading.

Teams in the top eight who are well positioned such as Roosters (second) and Parramatta (fourth) are a chance to dance with Melbourne (most likely on grand final day), while the Penrith Panthers, from seventh position, need to win four games in a row to win it. If they achieve that, it would be as remarkable as two cats synchronising a move with their tails to form a love heart.

While the Cowboys (eighth) without Johnathan Thurston may lack the necessary tools to go all the way, although they still have the nuts and bolts of a side that could be more than just a nuisance value come finals time and possibly lasso one or two teams.

Meanwhile, defending premiers Cronulla, who finished fifth, do indeed need a miracle. The last time a side won back to back in a unified comp was the Brisbane Broncos back in 1992-93. Although out of difficulties grow miracles, and the Sharks are still in it with a bite.

Which then leaves the remaining two teams, Brisbane and Manly, who finished third and sixth respectively on the ladder. This author is hate to the bearer of the bad news- the Broncos and Manly are not going to win the premiership this year. The reason won’t be due to a heavy dose of hayfever sniffles, where they go rushing to their local pharmacy for some antihistamine.

But alas, there is a thread doing the rounds on a rugby league website forum where no team has won a premiership after conceding 50 points in a regular season match. It’s a thread that has been going on for four years and it has proven to be as flawless as a porcelain teapot. It hasn’t cracked yet.

Following and taking the word of a rugby league forum thread may be fanciful from my behalf. Although, I’d much rather be a witty fool, than a foolish wit. So to give that thread more credence, I tweeted David Middleton asking him the question about whether a team has won a premiership after conceding 50 points in a regular season match. Here is Middleton’s reply:

The prophets of doom for Brisbane and Manly occurred when Brisbane got slipped by the Eels 52-34 in Round 25, while a few weeks prior, the Dragons raised their own half century against Manly with a 52-22 scoreline.

Before they inevitably fail, Brisbane will have some moments. James Roberts will cause problems out wide, while Ben Hunt will try and catch a ball from the kick off, before he departs down south to St.George-Illawarra.

As for Manly, Daly Cherry-Evans will have his long neck on the line to provide the Sea Eagles with guidance. But with the Sea Eagles needing to win four games to claim the premiership, and the fact they conceded more than 50 points in a regular season game, in all honesty, Manly are better off forfeiting the finals, go to their leagues club and karaoke sing The Beatles Norweigan Wood: This Bird Has Flown.

So anyway, my prediction for this year’s grand final will be between Melbourne Storm versus Sydney Roosters, with the Storm carrying the Provan-Summons trophy. However, knowing my luck, the teams lining up on grand final day will be Brisbane versus Manly.

If that was to be the likely of unlikely outcomes, then this article would be deemed to be proven as flakey as a head and shoulders commercial.

The Crowd Says:

2017-09-23T07:55:41+00:00

jamesb

Guest


Well, this theory was proven right

2017-09-08T12:40:49+00:00

Wild Eagle

Guest


Vautins QLD team won a state of Origin series 3 nil with a team that was on paper no hope of winning anything. I won't be shocked if the Storm don't win the title.

2017-09-08T00:54:21+00:00

StAdam

Guest


I think that anybody saying neither of these 2 teams can win the GF is foolish. I also think that anybdy who says the Storm are guaranteed Premiers in 2017 are even more foolish. Do you honestly think that's what Bellamy will be barking at his players for the next 3 weeks? It's the finals. Whatever happened over the regular season is irrelevant. Completely different ball game starts now.

2017-09-07T12:05:00+00:00

thomas c

Guest


I don't know. I think a certain view would have the storm or roosters winning the competition every year. But that simply hasn't happened. Things haven't been that predictable. People get injured. Maybe one team will play out of their skin one game. Maybe a brutal game in the quarters physically ruins a team. Sometimes teams that are only decent limp to victory.

2017-09-07T10:17:59+00:00

Wild Eagle

Guest


I have some good news for Broncos and Eagles fans. The Eagles lost to Saints in 2017 by 9 tries to 4. The Rooters lost to the Storm in round 18 2002 by 9 tries to 2 and went on to win the title. 9 tries to 2 loss is a worse loss(48 to 10) than 9 tries to 4 . In this context 50 points has little meaning.

2017-09-07T09:45:42+00:00

Wild Eagle

Guest


I could be wrong but the Saints are only the second team to miss the finals after starting the season 7-2 . What they have achieved is almost impossible. I saw it coming however, lack of imagination was disguised by their strong start. I wouldn't get too hung up on the magic number of 50 either. If tries were still worth 3 points Manly would be under this figure but so what. Maybe David Middleton could tell you about teams from the past who won the GF despite having as many tries put on them as The Broncos and Eagles this year. That would be a much better guide.

2017-09-07T08:18:43+00:00

Colth

Guest


Broncos will still make it...

2017-09-07T06:58:44+00:00

Jason Hosken

Roar Guru


yep, full day's flight to arrive before toss :)

2017-09-07T06:14:15+00:00

Scott Pryde

Expert


Huh? Cricket didn't start till Monday!

2017-09-07T05:52:21+00:00

Jason Hosken

Roar Guru


The Scotty Pryde world is a whirlwind, I noticed you'd already jumped to Chittagong before full time.

2017-09-07T05:21:36+00:00

Scott Pryde

Expert


Can we leave last Sunday in the past? It's a bit of a distant blur for me.

2017-09-07T04:08:08+00:00

BleakCity

Roar Rookie


Gee tough crowd. A guy writes a lighthearted bit of fun and everyone gets all serious.

2017-09-07T03:27:04+00:00

Harvey

Guest


Going for Brisbane and Manly though is they didnt win last year, so no backing up pressure.

2017-09-07T03:24:35+00:00

jamesb

Guest


I was a mad Steelers fan back in the day. Now I "mildly" follow the Dragons. In some ways, I was glad that they didn't make the eight, because I just don't think they would've done anything.

2017-09-07T03:04:09+00:00

Jason Hosken

Roar Guru


Steeler or Dragon? I feel for you, even I winced as it unfolded last Sunday.

2017-09-07T02:07:17+00:00

jamesb

Guest


I'm actually a Saints fan

2017-09-07T02:02:04+00:00

BigJ

Roar Guru


Exactly phelpsy

2017-09-07T01:34:57+00:00

Peter Phelps

Guest


They can't win the premiership for one simple reason - None of them can beat the Storm.

2017-09-07T01:33:31+00:00

andy

Guest


i think manly can beat the eels, roosters, and sharks, i dont think they will beat storm and would have a tough game against the broncos. If the storm were knocked out manly would be close to favorites to win the title. The one thing Manly have in their favor is a 2 match win streak going into the finals they have come out of that form slump and have some confidence i think their a chance.

2017-09-06T22:41:36+00:00

Jason Hosken

Roar Guru


Let's take it one step further and say no team has lost a grand final by 40 points and returned nine years later to win the comp - therefore, rule a line through Melbourne in 2017!! All you've done here jamesb is heap more misery on Saints fans - can you believe they finished 3 places below Manly after trouncing them at Brookie and raising the bat in Wollongong...maybe the biggest twist is still to come.

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