Geelong vs Sydney: AFL Finals Forecast

Recent and finals history does not bode well for the Cats, who face the impenetrable Sydney Swans at the MCG for the right to travel to Adelaide next week. But will they win? It’s complicated.

The last two finals experiences between these two teams have not been nice for Geelong. The 2005 semi final at the SCG was snatched from them in the final seconds, after leading for the all but the entirety of the game away from home.

You may know it as the Nick Davis Game. Last year’s preliminary final, at the MCG, was a walk over. Sydney kicked 32 points before the Cats scored, and went to the quarter time break with a 39-point lead. Swans by 37 was the final score.

2005 will be nothing more than a motivational tool for Geelong. Andrew Mackie is the only Cats player who was on the field that evening still playing for Geelong – Gary Ablett, Steve Johnson and James Kelly were also there – and will surely be called upon to give his teammates a perspective on losing when it’s win or go home.

But last year’s preliminary final affords some insight. It is a neat encapsulation of an issue which has been discussed at length this week, but which we must touch on here: Geelong has started all of its finals since their last premiership in 2011 poorly.

The Cats have been playing catch up football in every final they’ve played in since the 2011 grand final – when they famously stormed home in the final quarter against Collingwood. In the nine games since, the Cats have gone 2-7 with wins over Port Adelaide (2013) and Hawthorn (2016) by 16 points and three points, respectively.

By contrast, Sydney has built the resurgent part of its season on fast starts. The Swans have led at quarter time in 12 of their 17 games since Round 6, and at half time in 14 of 17. The only teams to be leading Sydney at half time over this stretch are Hawthorn (twice) and Richmond (who jumped to a 29 point lead in the first quarter in Round 13). Much is made of Sydney’s first ten minutes whenever their games are broadcast on national TV.

Indeed, this was the story of the pair’s Round 20 match this season. As the quarter time siren went, Sydney were up 47-15. It was done. Avoiding another sluggish start will be critical for the Cats – honestly it’s a good strategy for every team against every opponent.

Lance Franklin of the Swans (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

Matches between these two sides are most anticipated because of the midfield duels. The top three at each club match up almost perfectly: Joel Selwood and Josh Kennedy bullocking on the inside, Patrick Dangerfield and Luke Parker the inside-out threats that can hit the scoreboard like a forward, Mitch Duncan and Dan Hannebery the link up men who can hit packs with great pace.

Geelong is going to need its midfield, led by the aforementioned trio, to provide it with plenty of oompf, because Sydney for all the flash of Lance Franklin and his contested marking buddies up forward have built their season on an air tight defence.

The Swans have conceded scores on just 39.4 per cent of their opponent’s inside 50 entries since Round 6 – number one in the league by close to 10 per cent, and 15 per cent better than the league average. The Cats simply had to bring back Dan Menzel after his omission last weekend, to ensure there were enough forwards to counteract Sydney’s intercepting tall forwards.

Also back into the Geelong team is Darcy Lang, with Cam Guthrie out following a calf strain and Jordan Murdoch omitted. It means the Cats have gone a little taller on the whole, despite being made to look a bit lumbering by the swarming Richmond last weekend. However, what were the alternatives?

Sydney has made no change to its successful team from last weekend’s rollicking elimination final win against the Bombers.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Geelong has named Harry Taylor forward, but that looks unlikely given Sydney’s penchant for a more flexible back line and the three prong tall attack the Swans have adopted as their base look as the season has gone on. He would be a prime candidate for either Callum Sinclair or Sam Naismith, whichever of the two ruckmen is resting forward.

The Cats’ biggest problem last weekend was breaking through centre, and adapting to Richmond’s frenetic forward pressure. Sydney will bring the former, but are more lacking in the latter given their preference for bigger guys forward of the ball.

Last time they met, the Cats had a significant win at stoppages (winning clearances 43-32) and dominated outside the clinches (89 uncontested marks to 59, and +63 on uncontested possessions) but couldn’t translate it into territory (inside 50s were 47-48 the Swans’ way). They tried to slow play the Swans, who like an up tempo game. If they do the same this evening, it’ll mark another failed finals campaign for Chris Scott’s Geelong.

The market is very much of the view that Sydney’s 15-2 record since Round 6, and barnstorming win over the Bombers, are a reflecting of their status as a premiership contender. But are the punters overreacting to one bad week from the team that finished second on the ladder?

Geelong were woeful last week, but have made a habit of rebounding from disappointment in 2017. Remember when the Cats got smacked about the chops by Essendon in Round 8, setting a club record for fewest tackles in a game?

They reeled off three straight wins against the Dogs (when they were good), Adelaide Crows and Port Adelaide, with a pressure-first accountable style of football. Ditto their loss to the Swans in Round 20 – the Cats went 3-0 for the remainder, including knocking off their fellow top-four finishers Richmond and GWS (albeit at Kardinia Park).

Hitting the Swans between the eyes might not be the best strategy, but it’s pretty much all they’ve got. We could be in for a really tight, contested, moderately scoring game – a final’s final in a way. Or, Geelong could turn their toes up and the Swans boot 100 before three quarter time.

Sydney are in the box seat to advance, and I expect they will. The margin will depend on which Geelong shows up. We’ll take the mid point, and pick a Sydney win by 24 points.

That’s my AFL Finals forecast, what’s yours?