GWS Giants vs West Coast: AFL Finals Forecast

West Coast travel east to take on their New South Wales namesake, with sentiment towards the GWS Giants at a pretty low ebb.

Both sides have made some interesting moves at the selection table, and the game is a little more live than you may think.

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Let’s get straight to selection because it’s easily the most interesting feature of this game.

The GWS Giants have lost Jeremy Cameron and Shane Mumford to injury, Cameron to a season-ending hamstring injury and Mumford to an undisclosed ankle complaint. After last weekend’s relative pantsing as the hands of the Crows, who ran the Giants off their feet (particularly in the forward half), it has been seen as an opportunity for GWS to reset their team structure.

Despite playing three tall forwards plus a full time ruckman this season, the Giants took just 11.3 marks inside 50 per game this season – ranked 13th. In wins, that jumped to 12.9 per game, but their ranking drops to 15th. In simple terms, the Giants don’t need three tall forwards to win games, at least as far as taking marks is concerned.

In response to their injuries, the Giants have gone small. GWS selected Steve Johnson and 2016 draftee Tim Taranto, both of whom look set to play in the forward line. Rory Lobb becomes the team’s lone ruckman, and Jonathon Patton the lone mature key forward. Harry Himmelberg will play as the foil, but given his body size is more of a ground ball threat anyway.

It appears the Eagles anticipated the move, given the return of Sharrod Wellingham from the West Coast wilderness for the raw forward-midfielder Luke Partington. An already stacked back line gains another resident, with a bias towards intercept marking and rebounding. Wellingham can play across the ground though, so afford the Eagles some important flexibility given the small side the Giants have selected.

That’s important. Also important was what the Eagles didn’t do: select ruckman Nic Naitanui.

Naitanui’s status was the talk of the town out west all week. He reportedly trained with the full team, and according to West Coast coach Adam Simpson’s pre-flight press conference on Thursday was being heavily considered, and that the Eagles would take an extended squad of 26 over to Sydney.

It was in response to a direct question about whether he’d be picked. Later in the day, the journalists camped at Perth Airport reported Naitanui wasn’t on the flight, and later in the day selection confirmed he wasn’t in the final 22 or list of official emergencies.

(AAP Image/Tony McDonough)

So he’s out. The Eagles tipped their hand a little earlier in the day anyway, given Naitanui is still on West Coast’s long term injury list, and must be transferred off before he can be selected to play. We generally find out about long term injury list changes an hour or so before official selection.

Is it a missed opportunity? For fun, and narratives, and chaos almost certainly. But given the Giants have gone full small ball, perhaps it’s for the best in the end given the Eagles are already very tall down back.

Selection hints at how each team wants to play. The travellers have doubled down on their defensive half intercepting play, seemingly hoping to absorb a likely GWS dominance through the middle and counterattack with quality scoring opportunities. It’s the game plan they used against Port Adelaide during the home-and-away season, and which (in my view) almost cost them the game in the second half rematch last week.

The Eagles came close to beating the Giants last time the two sides met in Round 22 (in Western Sydney). They led by a goal at quarter time, trailed by seven points at half time, and pegged it back to a one point margin at the final change. The team’s broke even on inside 50s to three quarter time (40-39 the Giants’ way), with a +10 differential in the final quarter too much for West Coast’s interceptors to handle.

It may not even come to that, given the Giants are running with the small look that served them well during Jeremy Cameron’s last stint on the sidelines. GWS scored five per cent more often per inside 50 entry when they only had one of Cameron or Patton in their line up during the 2017 home-and-away season.

With just Patton in the line up, and Himmelberg as the second tall, the Giants will surely look to eschew long kicks into their forward 50. It makes the West Coast back line, with Jeremy McGovern, Eric Mackenzie and Tom Barrass, look really tall and cumbersome notwithstanding their strength in the air.

(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

It all may come to nought, though. Both teams are at full strength through the middle (excluding the ruck spot), meaning the Giants have the personnel to run the Eagles ragged.

West Coast may fancy their chance of getting first use – last time Rory Lobb was the solo ruckman, albeit in his third game, Todd Goldstein had a VFL/AFL record 80 hit outs – but otherwise it’s tough to see them getting the upper hand.

So they’ll have to turtle up and hope their rebound gambit pays off. West Coast’s forward line needs a bit of work over the off season, but as a collective it has proven it can score in this scheme. They won’t top 100 points, but the critical path is keeping the Giants at bay and hoping that the 40-odd inside 50s West Coast will generate are direct enough that they can break 80 points.

I don’t see it. The Giants might not be the best team, but West Coast are no Adelaide. Layer on the home field advantage, and the mismatch of team structure, and a GWS win should be forthcoming. I expect the Eagles will get the game on their terms for patches given GWS has shown a tendency to play caveman football this season, but it won’t be enough.

The Giants will win, by 18 points. That’s my AFL Finals forecast, what’s yours?