The Richmond Tigers and GWS Giants are both just one win away from a grand final – certainly, one of them is going through.
For the Tigers it would be their first appearance in the big dance in 35 years, bringing to an end an era of mediocrity that has taken its toll on a generation of fans.
For the Giants it would be, after six years in the competition, their first-ever appearance in the decider. Either way, history gets made.
Richmond come into the match with supreme confidence after their dominant effort over Geelong in the qualifying final.
They suffocated the Cats with their pressure, and when their opponents had no energy left, ran away with the game in the final term.
They’ll no doubt look to do the same against the Giants tonight, and it’s a tactic that will do well against a GWS team with a bit more tiredness in the legs.
Unlike Richmond who’ve had a week off to relax and haven’t left Victoria in weeks, the Giants are making their second finals road trip of September.
If they’re to win, they’ll need to use their elite skills to control the ball, wait for the right attack opportunities, and complete them with precision.
If they crack under pressure, the game will be lost.
Last five matches
Round 18, 2017 – Richmond 9.10.64 defeated GWS 6.9.45 at MCG
Round 9, 2017 – GWS 11.12.78 defeated Richmond 10.15.75 at Spotless Stadium
Round 19, 2016 – GWS 17.9.111 defeated Richmond 3.5.23 at Manuka Oval
Round 14, 2015 – Richmond 10.18.78 defeated GWS 10.9.69 at MCG
Round 19, 2014 – Richmond 13.11.89 defeated GWS 8.14.62 at MCG
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Richmond Tigers
No ChangeB: Brandon Ellis, Alex Rance, Dylan Grimes
HB: Bachar Houli, David Astbury, Nick Vlastuin
C: Kamdyn McIntosh, Trent Cotchin, Jacob Townsend
HF: Kane Lambert, Dustin Martin, Josh Caddy
F: Dan Butler, Jack Riewoldt, Daniel Rioli
FOL: Toby Nankervis, Dion Prestia, Shaun Grigg
I/C: Shane Edwards, Jack Graham, Nathan Broad, Jason Castagna
EMG: Shaun Hampson, Shai Bolton, Corey EllisGWS Giants
No ChangeB: Zac Williams, Phil Davis, Heath Shaw
HB: Nick Haynes, Adam Tomlinson, Nathan Wilson
C: Dylan Shiel, Stephen Coniglio, Tim Taranto
HF: Matt de Boer, Harrison Himmelberg, Tom Scully
F: Steve Johnson, Jonathon Patton, Brett Deledio
FOL: Rory Lobb, Jacob Hopper, Josh Kelly
I/C: Aidan Corr, Lachie Whitfield, Toby Greene, Callan Ward
EMG: Devon Smith, Harry Perryman, Sam J Reid
The Lids back on
Brett Deledio is going to play just his sixth game for the GWS Giants tonight, and as luck would have it, it’s against his old side, his 250th AFL game, with a grand final spot on the line.
The stakes don’t get higher than this and it’s a fixture no one though would be happening, certainly not so soon, when the trade was done last year.
Deledio is yet to really turn it on for GWS – he’s played some good games, but he’s honestly been more of a solid citizen than the genuine star he often was as a Tiger.
Right now would be the perfect time for him to lift just one or two levels higher.
The most lopsided crowd in history
Of a crowd that’s likely to be 95000+, less than 2000 are expected to be GWS fans – we might as well be playing this one at Punt Road.
The crowd will likely be at least 30000 more than the Giants have ever played in front of, and that’s going to take large psychological toll on the Giants.
A fast start to shut the crowd up a bit is absolutely non-negotiable.
No changes on either side
Neither team has made any change to their side from their most recent performances, and given that both had good wins that’s probably a wise move.
For the Giants its a bit odd to see Devon Smith left on the emergency list though. Perhaps there’s still a concern with his fitness – otherwise, you’d think he probably comes in for Matt de Boer.
For Richmond, they basically have their best 22 on the park here and while there’s always debate, there’s no real need to change it.
This is the 22 that, if they get the opportunity, they will take into grand final day.
(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
Prediction
If these two teams play the same way that they both have over the past few weeks, then the Tigers should win this one after a bit of an arm wrestle.
If Richmond don’t bring the same level of pressure that they did against Geelong, then GWS have every chance of cracking them open and slicing them up with their superior skills.
The Tigers’ ability to maintain that intensity after a week’s break due to the bye is therefore crucial. I reckon they probably have.
Richmond Tigers to win by 24 points.
Where: MCG
When: 4:45pm AEST
TV: Seven, live, Fox Footy, live
Betting: Richmond $1.62, GWS $2.35
Head-to-head: Richmond 6, GWS 2
Last five: Richmond 3, GWS 2
In finals: Never previously met
Mango Jack
Roar Guru
At the moment, maybe yes, but they are working very hard at grassroots level to build support. It's a long game in a very tough market, they understand that, but if they maintain the commitment they've shown so far, they will have a substatntial base in 5 - 10 years time.
Mango Jack
Roar Guru
Just checked weather forecast. Chance of a storm, but not much rain predicted , if any. May not be a factor after all.
Zed16
Guest
it would be good for the game if it remains dry and this will level up some of the significant hurdles for GWS. 1. Playing Richmond on their home ground, 2. Totally one sided crowd 3. For most of the season their best 22 is not available on different today. If GWS do get up today the most entertaining part of today will be to see Hardwick explain this one in the post match interview. I am not a GWS fan but i would like to see both teams be able to play their best brand of footy.
Slane
Guest
As evidenced by the massive turnout at their last home final. If you want to see what 'quite a bit of support' looks like, make sure you catch the game this arvo
Paul D
Roar Guru
I'm going for Richmond. No idea how the game will pan out but I'd love to see an adelaide richmond grand final. Mainly because Richmond will win that for sure
Paul D
Roar Guru
Agreed, if GWS win there's a temporary 'yay they beat richmond' from all the haters and then after a few days no-one cares anymore they're a sugar hit team
Ditraversa
Guest
guess you're wrong Rick, judging by some the comments here and talk this week there is actually quite a bit of support for the Giants up here in NSW
Matthew H
Guest
GWS to be 7 goals up midway through 2nd term... I hope. Can't tell for sure, but I have personally witnessed Richmond capitulate in Finals before. Two weeks ago Geelong were really weak, even though Richmond were doing nothing on the scoreboard through their stage fright the Cats did not make them pay. Tigers got going late sure, but should have been put under much more pressure. If GWS can start well they can stun the Tigers in the first and then if they get the first goal of the 2nd term... c'mon GWS!
GWS Fan
Guest
Well done Adelaide. That was a pasting that was dished up to the hapless Cats last night. Fingers crossed that we can actually have a close and exciting game today. GWS by a point.
Ditraversa
Roar Rookie
Whilst I would agree with most of this analysis and most of the comments, which seem to heavily favour Richmond, I would also point out one large unknown and novel factor, which emerged only last week when the Giants played West Coast. Due to the injuries to Cameron and Mumford GWS were forced to push Lobb into the ruck, have a single tall target forward (Patton), becaming a lot faster and smaller around the ground, in general, but especially up forward: a huge contributing factor to their very high score. So I think (baring outside influences like rain) it's actually incumbent on Richmond to stop the Giants scoring. But like most I still have trouble backing GWS because of their year-long inconsistency. They haven't really put a string of outstanding performances together all year, not is small part due to injuries, but they also seem to lack that extra something that the eventual premiers always seem to have. Adelaide, have it, and Richmond may too. But the Giants? I agree - as much as for resurgent Richmond, this is a defining moment for GWS. It feels like they've been on the verge of cracking the final step from hugely promising side to true contenders. If they can silence 90000+ Richmond supporter's at the G they can do anyone
guttsy
Guest
its tiger time....
I ate pies
Guest
What's the difference? It's a one hour flight for god sake. It takes longer to get to Bendigo
I ate pies
Guest
The case for ages? I can think of only one other Prelim ever that's been played at that time.
Slane
Guest
One is denying a segment of our society the right to marriage, the other is an unwise and unhealthy luxury expense. Why would anybody ever try to equate the two?
Pope Paul VII
Guest
I think it's funny that the catchcry of the reactionaries was "stay out of politics" when it's the politicians creating the hubris.
truetigerfan
Guest
Carna Tigers! Eat 'em alive!
Brayden Rise
Roar Pro
and your tip GoSwans is? Who is going to win and by how much?
MG
Roar Rookie
I'm very conflicted on this. A Giants win would be good for footy in NSW but they are our cross town rivals. I'm still bitter about the fairy tale last year and would rather there wasn't a Tiger one this year but then GWS are the AFL's long term fairy tale.
Birdman
Guest
once it's legal (like gambling), marry responsibly....... :)
Maurice
Guest
Good point . We can't have a opinion on the yes no vote, if club or player says no there crucified . Yet gambling is quite an acceptable thing . With all the afl media saying vote yes full stop . yet the only bit of advice they have on gambling is do it responsably . Richmond by 34 points