This long weekend, the National Rugby Championship reaches the midpoint of its season, with four rounds played, and four more to come after this one. And already, it looms as the tipping point for a few teams.
This time last year, I was making the first of many mentions of the 2016 season being the closest of the three played, but just a month into the 2017 edition, it looks like that has been eclipsed.
The Fijian Drua sit five points clear on top of the table, on the back of three really good wins in three weeks, but behind them it’s becoming a proper logjam.
Just two points separate Queensland Country in second and Brisbane City in sixth place; the bottom three teams have us one point between them, and indeed, there are only six points separating the eight Australian sides trailing the flying Fijians.
But within that chase-pack there are a couple of teams effectively entering ‘must win’ territory.
Perth and Canberra, for example, have nearly identical records after four games: two wins, two losses, respective differentials of +13 and +12, both with 21 tries for and 19 against, two bonus points, and ten competition points each.
Yet despite the thumping at the hands of the Drua last weekend, and that they even lost to Canberra in Round 2, Perth is playing the far better rugby and still look finals-bound.
Canberra, on the other hand, look vulnerable. They should have put NSW Country away last weekend, or at the very least done enough to hold them off, but they couldn’t do either.
Now, they face the prospect of opposing a red-hot Fiji, with the only real evidence in their favour being that the game is in Canberra. If there is one possible straw-clutching chink in the Drua’s armour, it’s that they possibly aren’t used to the travel component of a competition like this. Possibly. Maybe.
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The Vikings suffered a blow this week, with confirmation that workhorse flanker Ben Hyne has damaged both a medial and anterior cruciate ligament in that horrible incident late in last week’s game, and is facing a long stint on the sidelines.
Canberra now have to find someone else capable of making upwards of 20 tackles a game, while going seemingly unnoticed – and that’s not even remotely as simple as it sounds.
Regardless, if they drop a third game, they would have to win all three of their remaining matches, and even then might need things to go their way to finish in the top four.
As it currently stands, teams with five wins could miss the top four with such a tight mid-table.
The Greater Sydney Rams are in a similar boat to Canberra, but the bye this weekend could be both their saving grace and the start of a ‘squeaky bum’ run home.
The following week, the Rams face Fiji in Sydney, and then have the two Queensland teams and Canberra to finish. Depending how results go this weekend, particularly for the teams in that mid-table group of five teams, the Rams could possibly drop one game on the run home or need to win all four.
Brisbane City are the other vulnerable side, but they at least have a game in hand.
City are one of only three teams – along with Fiji and Queensland Country – who can finish the season with more than 30 points, and so their position might not be quite so tenuous as the Vikings and Rams, but the concern is whether the type of rugby they’re playing is consistent enough to challenge.
We’ll find out a fair bit about City this weekend in Perth, and the rumoured return of Karmichael Hunt will certainly make a difference; more so if Quade Cooper slots back in as well.
Sportography
For those below these teams – the Sydney Rays, NSW Country and Melbourne – a slow start means everything is effectively must-win.
What’s really interesting about the competition this year is that we probably shouldn’t see any wins for these three teams as upsets from here. Any team can beat anyone in 2017, and the five rounds ahead should be just as unpredictable as the first month of the NRC.
Round 5
Friday
7.30pm (AEST): Canberra vs Fiji; Viking Park, Canberra – Live on Fox Sports 501
Saturday
3pm (AEST): Queensland Country vs Melbourne; Bond University, Gold Coast – Live streamed
Sunday (Daylight savings begins 2am)
5pm (ADST): Perth vs Brisbane City; McGillivray Oval, UWA, Perth – Live streamed
Monday
3pm (ADST): NSW Country vs Sydney; Simon Poidevin Oval, Goulburn – Live on Fox Sports 501
Greater Sydney have the bye.
Ladder
Fijian Drua 15
Queensland Country 10
Perth Spirit 10
Canberra Vikings 10
Greater Sydney Rams 9
Brisbane City 8
Sydney Rays 5
NSW Country Eagles 4
Melbourne Rising 4
Tips
One from three again last week, but I’m claiming the moral victory after suggesting the case for tipping against me was strong.
This weekend, Fiji have too many points in them for Canberra; Queensland Country to solidify their top-four spot; Perth should be too strong for Brisbane City, despite the Cooper-Hunt combination; and NSW Country to finally hit their straps in Goulburn.
Enjoy your NRC rugby long weekend.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
G'day Brett, you could be right but this is still on the ARU website for Saturday's match: "Queensland Country v Melbourne Rising, Saturday 3pm AEST, Bond University, Gold Coast This match will be broadcast LIVE on FOX SPORTS and on the FOX SPORTS app." Very likely this match will not be broadcast in Melbourne against the monolith called AFL. And as you say the Sunday match won't be broadcast so as not to compete against the NRL. The other teams have now been announced. Marto has shown the Queensland teams below but I had already typed this up before I logged in, so sorry for the repeats. The teams are: Queensland Country in the Saturday game: 1. Sef Fa'agase. 2. Alex Casey. 3. Taniela Tupou. 4. Angus Blyth. 5. Harry Hockings. 6. Angus Scott-Young. 7. Liam Wright. 8. Caleb Timu. 9. James Tuttle. 10. Hamish Stewart. 11. Eto Nabuli. 12. Duncan Paia'aua (C). 13. Chris Feauai-Sautia. 14. Filipo Daugunu. 15. Patrick James Reserves: 16. Richie Asiata. 17. Alex Mafi. 18. Fred Burke. 19. Rob Puli'uvea. 20. Tai Ford. 21. Tate McDermott. 22. Teti Tela. 23. Veresa Mataitini. This country team has really gelled together under coach Brad Thorn. A gun front row with good players behind them, although they have lost Izack Rodda and Izaia Perese to the WB squad. Very interested in seeing how Angus Scott-Young and Caleb Timu go. If Angus is anywhere near as good as his dad Sam then I will be happy. He certainly looked good in the World U20's tournament. The backline has loads of experience, the 9-13 axis would have most Queenslanders drooling over their horrible XXXX beer. The two teams for the Sunday match, Perth Spirit 1. Pek Cowan. 2. Anaru Rangi. 3. Shambeckler Vui. 4. Richard Arnold. 5. Matt Philip. 6. Onehunga Havili. 7. Kane Koteka. 8. Isi Naisrani. 9. Michael Ruru. 10. Peter Grant. 11. Clay Uyen. 12. Marcel Brache. 13. James Verity-Amm. 14. Chance Peni. 15. Nick Jooste Reserves: 16. Sama Maolo. 17. Mees Erasmus. 18. Jermaine Ainsley. 19. Matt O’Brien. 20. Tevin Ferris. 21. Ian Prior. 22. Sheldon Tarawa. 23. Hamish Buick. Brisbane City: 1. Tonga Ma’afu. 2. Andrew Ready. 3. Salesi Manu. 4. Dan Gorman. 5. Kane Douglas. 6. Adam Korczyk. 7. Pat Morrey. 8. Michael Richards. 9. Moses Sorovi. 10. Quade Cooper. 11. Ed Fidow. 12. AJ Alatimu. 13. Chris Kuridrani. 14. Dylan Riley. 15. Jayden Ngamanu. Reserves: 16. Maile Ngauamo. 17. Markus Vanzati. 18. Feao Fotuaika. 19. Reece Hewat. 20. Michael Gunn. 21. Nick Frisby. 22. Maaloga Konelio. 23. Lachlan Maranta. From last week's belting in Fiji, Perth have changed the hooker and THP and two changes in the back three. Both sides are rich in SR talent and the forwards battle will be pretty rugged for the whole match. Both R.Arnold and M.Philip have been going gangbusters in the NRC but K.Douglas and A.Korczyk will want to show they are still WB material. Quade Cooper is the standout of the backs, but both sets of backs have lots of speed and talent. Interesting to see Nick Frisby and Lachlin Maranta as reserves for Brissie. Sydney Rays: and finally the Monday match of the Sydney teams. 1. David Lolohea. 2. Damien Fitzpatrick. 3. Alex Westgarth. 4. Dave McDuling. 5. Angus Ryan. 6. James Brown. 7. Tom Connor. 8. Hugh Sinclair. 9. Nick Duffy. 10. Angus Sinclair. 11. Latu Latunipulu. 12. Rohan Saifoloi. 13. Irae Simone. 14. Josh Turner. 15. Harrey Burey Reserves: 16. James Hilterbrand. 17. Lisiate Vaihu. 18. Wayne Borsak. 19. Conor Vest. 20. Bruce Kaino. 21. Jack Grant. 22. Kepu Lokotui. 23. Rob Buaserau A few of the Rays boys have SR experience without being regular starters. Irae Simone will make his first appearance this season on the weekend, albeit at OC whereas I have only seen him play at IC.
marto
Guest
Bond University Queensland Country side to face Sydney Rays: 1. Sef Fa'agase - University of Queensland/Beaudesert 2. Alex Casey - Souths 3. Taniela Tupou - Brothers 4. Angus Blyth - Bond University/Gold Coast 5. Harry Hockings - University of Queensland/Bowen 6. Angus Scott-Young – University of Queensland 7. Liam Wright - Easts 8. Caleb Timu - Souths 9. James Tuttle - GPS 10. Hamish Stewart - Bond University/Toowoomba 11. Eto Nabuli - GPS 12. Duncan Paia'aua - Norths/Rockhampton 13. Chris Feauai-Sautia - Souths 14. Filipo Daugunu - Wests 15. Patrick James - Brothers Reserves 16. Richie Asiata - Easts 17. Alex Mafi - Bond University/Mt Isa 18. Fred Burke - GPS 19. Rob Puli'uvea 20. Tai Ford - Bond University/Gold Coast 21. Tate McDermott – University of Queensland/Sunshine Coast 22. Teti Tela - Souths 23. Veresa Mataitini – Norths
marto
Guest
Brisbane City 1. Tonga Ma’afu – Norths 2. Andrew Ready – Reds/Easts 3. Salesi Manu – Bond University (NRC Debut) 4. Dan Gorman – GPS 5. Kane Douglas – Reds/Norths 6. Adam Korczyk – Reds/UQ 7. Pat Morrey – UQ 8. Michael Richards – GPS 9. Moses Sorovi – Reds/UQ 10. Quade Cooper – Reds/Souths 11. Ed Fidow – Wests 12. AJ Alatimu – GPS 13. Chris Kuridrani – Reds/GPS 14. Dylan Riley – Bond University 15. Jayden Ngamanu – Reds/Souths 16. Maile Ngauamo – Souths 17. Markuz Vanzati – Reds/Souths 18. Feao Fotuaika – Sunnybank 19. Reece Hewat – Reds/Norths 20. Michael Gunn – Reds/Easts 21. Nick Frisby – Reds/GPS 22. Maaloga Konelio – GPS 23. Lachlan Maranta – Reds/Wests
marto
Guest
Up the crows !!
marto
Guest
You had a few Shandies JOHN R ?
Brett McKay
Expert
Just to clarify here, TF, the Saturday and Sunday games are being streamed this weekend, as per my listings in the article. Fox have done this to get away from the GFs..
scottd
Guest
she might be a bit young for me
scottd
Guest
pretty good if you take an electronic device and hijack the feed from one of the screens not so good otherwise However why don't you stand up and ask ....I'm sure you'll get a fair hearing and a thoughtful response :)
Crazy Horse
Roar Pro
It's a deliberate strategy. One that has been used successfully by the Spirit every year of the NRC. The away games are used to blood as many club players as possible. The A team only plays at home.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
yes Scottd, as seeing as you are such a nice bloke, I have sent Miss Playboy 1959 to your house for this weekend. Enjoy! ps: don't forget to watch the NRC also, some cracking games to cheer for while you recover! :)
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
Great article Brett and you are dead right, tipping in this NRC is like picking Lotto. But my two bob's worth is: Vikings to beat the frozen Fijian Drua, Qld Country to deflate the Rising, an angry Perth Spirit to beat a Brissie City depleted of WB's and the Rams, desperate to get into the finals, to beat their state "country cousins". This weekend is a NRC-fest on the telly. THREE of the NRC matches for this weekend will be televised live, so plenty to watch apart from a couple of non-descript Grand Finals on other channels, but they are only to cure insomniacs. :) Teams for Round 5 that have been announced are: Canberra Vikings v Fijian Drua, Friday 7:30pm AEST, Viking Park, Canberra. Broadcast Live on Fox Sports Canberra Vikings 1. Faalelei Sione 2. Folau Faingaa. 3. Joel Pender. 4. Darcy Swain. 5. Blake Enever. 6. Rob Valetin. 7. Tom Cusack (c). 8. Lolo Fakao’silea. 9. Ryan Lonergan. 10. Wharenui Hawera. 11. Ben Johnston. 12. James Dargaville. 13. Andrew Robinson. 14. Andrew Muirhead. 15. Tom Banks Reserves: 16. Robbie Abel. 17. Harry Lloyd. 18. Les Leuluailii-Makin. 19. Angus Allen. 20. Dean Oakman-Hunt. 21. Pedro Rolando. 22. Mac Hansen. 23. Len Ikitau Fijian Drua 1. Joeli Veutayaki. 2. Rautnaisa Navuma. 3. Kalivati Tawake. 4. Peni Naulago. 5. Filimoni Seru. 6. Samuela Saqiwa. 7. Mosese Voka. 8. Peni Raidre 9. Frank Lomani. 10. Kini Douglas. 11. Apete Daveta. 12. Eroni Vasiteri. 13. John Stewart. 14. Eroni Sau. 15. Apisalome Waqatabu Reserves: 16. Osea Naganilau. 17. Eroni Mawi. 18. Mosese Ducivaki. 19. Sakiusa Nadruku. 20. Vasikali Mudu. 21. Seru Cavuilati. 22. Kitione Taliga. 23. Ifereimi Tovilevu. How good is this match? Canberra's starting team with up to 7 Brumbies against the surprise leaders, who have got their game together quickly and playing the Three F's, (ferocious fast footy). Of the starters Canberra has changed both their props from last week (Joel Pender was a reserve) and Lolo Fakao’silea replaces Ben Hyne, the #6 from last week's match. The backs are basically unchanged. Looks like Canberra are trying to give everyone in their squad a run as there are a lot of new reserves from last week. Fijian Drua starters are unchanged although two players seem to have swapped positions. Only the #23 reserve is different from the group who towelled up Perth Spirit last Saturday in Suva. Interesting that Jack McGregor of the Rising said in an interview after they played the Fijian Drua that it was the size, rather than the speed, that really surprised the Rising players. Maybe we should all be drinking Kava rather than pumping iron and peptides in the gym. Queensland Country v Melbourne Rising, Saturday 3pm AEST, Bond University, Gold Coast. Broadcast Live on Fox Sports Queensland Country: TBC Melbourne Rising: 1. Rory O’Connor. 2. Siliva Siliva. 3. Fereti Sa’aga. 4. Steve Cummins. 5. Emmanuel Latu-Meafou. 6. Jason Havea. 7. Ikapote Tupai. 8. Rob Leota. 9. Harrison Goddard. 10. Jack McGregor. 11. Semisi Tupou. 12. Sione Tuipulotu. 13. Hunter Paisami. 14. Kitione Ratu. 15. Jack Maddocks Reserves: 16. Cameron Mapusua. 17. Tom Moloney. 18. Pome Fa’amausili. 19. Sione Taufa. 20. Lloyd Johansson. 21. Maradona Farao. 22. Mahe Vailanu. 23. Henry Hutchison. The Rising started like a house on fire last week and took the more fancied Rams to the cleaners in the 1st half. They seriously need to come out even better this week as Qld Country look the goods this year. Of the starters, the Rising have an unchanged pack but have lost Nic Stirzaker and Sefa Naivalu through injury from last week's starting group. This has caused changes to their reserves also. The side has a fair sprinkling of Super Rugby experience in Siliva squared, Rob Leota, Sione Tuipulota and Jack Maddocks. Am not sure if the Warringah Rat's prop Rory O’Connor has played for the Rebels yet. Perth Spirit v Brisbane City, Sunday 4pm AEDT, McGillivray Oval, Perth Steamed Only via the Fox Sports website and apps. Neither team have declared their sides. I'll put them on when/if they do. NSW Country Eagles v Sydney Rams, Monday 2:00pm AEDT, Simon Poidevin Oval, Goulbourn Broadcast Live on Fox Sports, Monday being a public holiday. NSW Country Eagles 1. Paddy Ryan. 2. Brandon Paenga-Amosa. 3. Samuel Needs. 4. Thomas Staniforth. 5. Ryan McCauley. 6. Rohan O'Regan. 7. Maclean Jones. 8. Sam Ward. 9. Jake Gordon. 10. Tayler Adams. 11. Alex Gibbon. 12. Kyle Godwin . 13. Alex Newsome. 14. Henry Clunies-Ross. 15. Andrew Kellaway Reserves: 16. Connal McInerney. 17. Matt Gibbon. 18. Harry Johnson-Holmes. 19. Tim Buchanan. 20. Nick Kellaway. 21. Pat McCutcheon. 22. Lachlan Anderson. 23. Tom Hill. Not a bad team but they really haven't fired this year. I think that about 8 of the starters have Super Rugby experience, plus Pat McCutcheon the Tah's flanker in the reserves.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
Hi CuW, I remember seeing David Havili play against the Tahts at SFS this year. It was a lovely sunny afternoon except the Crusaders murdered the Tahs in the 1st 30 minutes. Havali did a lot of the damage that day, he runs excellent lines and is a good defender. From what I have seen of him since he may not have the speed or flashiness of Damian McKenzie but for mine is a better fullback. That's a pretty handy AB side, they are not taking Argentina lightly by any means.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
Thanks Brett, I was one who wondered where the Aussie version of Harry Jones had gone to. :)
scottd
Guest
What!!!!!! Does that mean his girlfriends are available????
Paul D
Roar Rookie
They barely want to pay for the internationals. Hence it being passed from 7 to 9 to the bankrupt 10......
Brett McKay
Expert
Good luck to him, but this is literally irrelevant Cuw. You might as well have told us Hugh Hefner died...
Brett McKay
Expert
Better than even...
Brett McKay
Expert
You know full well how the Shute Shield TV arrangement works. You love raising questions you know the answers to, Yet none of what you say disproves my point. FTA in Australia is not interested in paying for rugby below the international level. But you know that too.
Paul D
Roar Rookie
SRU is paying Ch7 to televise it, and Ch7 is selling advertising time also. They are getting paid from both ends.Advertisers aren't paying very much for the time else SRU wouldn't have to pay Ch7 to show it. Compare that to the multi millions that the Fox etc give SANZAAR for Super Rugby. As fore the comparison to the Swans game. Lets just put a little context to things The Audience in NSW for SS was 69'000 on Ch7. Total viewers in NSW for Swans was 87'000, which includes viewers on pay TV. It's misleading to not include Fox viewers who if it wasn't on Fox would be watching it on FTA. It's also misleading to only consider NSW viewers and ignore Carlton Supporters in Victoria, and also other states far more likely to watch AFL than SS. The 5 city number for the AFL would be 500'000 or so based on averages for the year. Shute Sheild would be lucky to grab another 10-20k across the country. And all that is before you even factor in one being a Grand Final, and another being a regular round match between a couple of also rans.
scottd
Guest
Yes, agreed. I guess the next 6 weeks will tell us what strategy is best :)