On the surface, the West Coast Eagles trading Andrew Gaff might seem like a really bad idea.
Analysing the Eagles’ list last month, I said that Gaff was a core player that West Coast should be doing everything they can to sign up for the long term.
However, I also said that the Eagles are headed for the edge of the cliff – with a number of retiring veterans and on a downward trend these past two years, they look set to miss finals in 2018 and probably by a decent margin.
What’s a player like Gaff to do then? In 12 months’ time he’ll be 26, in the prime of his career, for the first time ever a free agent, and playing at a club where the timing of the next premiership push is unclear.
On top of that, he’s a Victorian and, while he has always knocked it back in the past, there’s often been talk about him and the temptation to return home.
If Gaff were to leave West Coast as a free agent next year then the return would likely be an end-of-first-round draft pick, so pick 19 at the earliest.
Only the top five per cent paid players in the league attract band-one free agency compensation these days and while Gaff would surely get a lucrative offer, it wouldn’t be in that group.
To lose a core player and only receive a pick barely in the top 20 in return would be a heavy blow for the Eagles to cop. They would likely have the option of matching the offer and forcing a trade, but there’s no certain outcome there.
If the Eagles believe Gaff will go at the end of 2018, they should trade him now instead and get a higher return.
The ideal result here would be to send Gaff to St Kilda in exchange for either pick seven or eight.
The Saints have currency to spend at the trade table this year and a mature, classy midfielder like Gaff is just about the perfect recruit for them given where their list is at.
St Kilda have a great group of grunters and grinders, but nobody likes a cake without some icing on the top.
Gaff would provide exactly that, and pick seven or eight isn’t an unreasonable deal to make for a player of his quality with at least half a dozen years of elite footy left in the body.
However, the rumour mill suggests the Saints aren’t the only club interested in Gaff’s services. Essendon, Hawthorn and Melbourne could all be in the running.
Essendon could offer their first pick, No.11 – or West Coast could ask for the Dons’ 2018 first-rounder if they like that better.
Hawthorn have already sent away their first rounder for this year, so it would be their 2018 first-rounder – a bit of a gamble, as the Hawks are a hard team to read next year.
Melbourne would probably find it difficult to get a deal done, simply because their picks this year and next are currently tied up in their higher priority of trying to secure a trade for Jake Lever.
If they found themselves with a first-round pick to spare after getting that deal done they might enter the market – but they’ll be on the back foot if they do.
Of course, there is one potential complication – if Gaff is going to be a free agent next year, then why should a Victorian club give up a high pick for him now when they could sign him free in 2018?
As the old proverb says, a bird – specifically, in this case, an Eagle – in hand is better than two in the bush.
Gaff is a player with rare traits and the fact that four clubs are already making noise a year out makes it clear that there is a robust market for his services, which will only intensify as time goes on.
So much can change in 12 months and a club that thinks it can land Gaff now shouldn’t be confident that it can do the same at the end of 2018.
Instead, the wisest move may be to take a pre-emptive strike now before a bidding war begins in earnest – and while this may mean paying up, it’s worth it if you get your man.
Of course, I would still argue that West Coast should look to retain Gaff for the long term if at all possible.
They should be going to him right now with a contract extension that will make him an Eagle for life – or close to. If he signs then mission accomplished, and they save themselves a season of scrutiny and speculation.
If he balks, then maybe it’s time to be bold, float his name on the open market and target a top-ten draft pick here and now rather than risk having to spin the free agency compensation wheel next year.
Daniel
Guest
Interesting read a year on. So glad you (and most people!) got that wrong!! - "they look set to miss finals in 2018 and probably by a decent margin."
Matt
Guest
Well you looks silly now aye??? I mean come on Nic Nat was coming back though injured again now bummer.. They have two of the best forwards in the competition and two to three elite backmen.. Our midfield lacks a true superstar but come on this team has the capacity to match it with any current team and none of the teams are really that great,,,
Matt
Guest
Nah they do not get paid enough for that type of trading to happen...
Matt
Guest
Hind sight is 20/20 but this idea now seams really really stupid.. In fact I think it was always stupid given WCE has the core of a really good team missing only an elite Midfielder to complete the side.. Gaff is not quiet that but combined with Shuey he is kind of as close as WCE can get at this point and there is not another player on the WCE list that can do what he does..
King Bob
Guest
Was responding to the article "Essendon could offer their first pick, No.11 – or West Coast could ask for the Dons’ 2018 first-rounder if they like that better." 2 top 10 picks would be tempting as exchange for most players but Clubs are unlikely to offer, plus always better to have a player who has proved themselves as valuable and not injury prone. Gaff does have a remarkable history as being very robust having only missed games as a result of a late high hit.
David C
Guest
Hawks need to delist Whitecross, no trade value there.
Don Freo
Guest
Wow! Just imagine...with one pick Chris Masten could have been a Premiership captain at Richmond.!
Mattician6x6
Guest
That was part of Judd deal, apparently west coast wanted to get cotchin but tigers grabbed him at pick 2,
Don Freo
Guest
As I said, "Have a look."
Paul D
Roar Guru
Chris Masten went pick 3, believe it or not
Mattyb
Guest
Bob,I havnt forgotten that Gaff was AA as I've mentioned it. Originally going pick 4 is an excellent point though.
Mattyb
Guest
Good points Bob,what about 9&11,it must be tempting to the Eagles? Why just mention 11? No one has said just 11. Maybe a big no but hardly 'fake news'. Let's try and keep this above board without dramatised Americananisms.You have also failed to include some of the local players like Schoithe and Kelly in your discussion points. The Eagles could come out in front here. Surely it's at least tempting,as opposed to a big no?
Mattician6x6
Guest
Well said Bob, last I knew he studies at uwa and his girl is from Perth. No chance he is moving from wce
King Bob
Guest
What a lot of Fake news. No club ever trades one of their top players unless forced by the player. Draft picks and average players will never be a winning deal. All these comments seem to forget Gaff was pick 4 and All Australian in 2015. He has been at WCE for 6 years who have a good Finals appearance record, so more likely to get to a GF than many Melbourne teams. Going home is overstated as for every player who has stated this as a reason there would be 10 time as many who were happy to live away. It isn't that difficult to survive without your mum's cooking. He can't be replaced by a pick 11.
Mattyb
Guest
Sorry about that AO. Funnily enough I'm not a huge Gaff fan but I can see his attributes being perfect for the dogs which is why I'm keen to go all in,would really improve our list. Not sure about the Saints,I think they need more inside mids. I think taking 9&11 to the draft while picking up Scoithe or Kelly from the WAFL with a later pick could really help WC list in the future while also keeping the now in mind with some sensible mature age recruiting.
Mattyb
Guest
David,I can still see the dogs keeping Stringer. I'm not fussed about the of field stuff beyond a personally moralistic viewpoint,which doesn't matter,but Stringer has some serious onfield issues,and the club would have tried but to no avail,Stingers 100% in the wrong here. his attitude is going to follow him if he doesn't pull his head in. If poor offers or a poor salary is offered it might force Stringer to listen to the club and do what he's been told that is required of him. No ones locked the door,maybe the penny will drop like happened when Geelong shipped around Stevie J and no one was willing to put up what Geelong wanted. Let's not worry about what media people say,everyone is aware of his issues and that's why he's been devalued,he won't be devalued further because the public also now knows a little more.
Mattician6x6
Guest
Menegola & mayne are west Aussie seeking opportunity, after 3 years injured selwood wanted Freshstart (remember Adam is still here so wasn't family related) Stevens wanted better opportunity as he was fringe at wce. Sinclair was surplus and not homesick, croad was a pawn used by hawks and remember freo also gained mcpharlin in that trade and I think freo fans were pretty happy with that.
David C
Guest
They can't possibly retain Stringer with how things have played out, it's weakened the doggies hand considerably. Essendon might trade pick 11 to Gold Coast or Brisbane who have a surplus of picks.
Mattyb
Guest
Col,Smith has had a lot of injury problems,he's certainly a fringe player or close to..I won't go into details as you konow my feelings and Carlton don't need frringe players,yet,that time will come though. I can see Essendon getting the deal done but they will be heading up the Geelong,Hawthorn path,might work but the drafts aren't compromised anymore so it adds a new flavour. Pick 11 for Stringer,pick 28 for Smith and a second next year to GC for Saad.GC don't need anymore picks in this draft.
Jason
Roar Rookie
Matty, I'm and Eagles man, 8 and Acres or alternatively , 9 & 11 in a heartbeat if I was recruiting for the Eagles.