The AFL’s worst-kept secret has been confirmed – prodigal son Gary Ablett has requested a trade from the Gold Coast to allow him to return to Geelong next year.
While it’s nearly a foregone conclusion that a deal to allow this to happen will get done, Gold Coast needs to play hardball.
Ablett’s departure would be the most recent in a series of player exoduses from the struggling expansion club – over the past several years, In the past two years alone, Gold Coast has lost Harley Bennell, Jaeger O’Meara, Dion Prestia, Charlie Dixon and Zac Smith, all of whom command starting positions in their current AFL teams.
The club also looks set to lose Adam Saad to Essendon (for family reasons) in the upcoming trade period.
Losing Ablett, a former captain, would arguably be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Many column inches have been devoted to the travails plaguing Gold Coast since its inception – poor culture, lack of professionalism, sub-standard facilities, and an environment more conducive to partying and surfing than hard work.
(Photo by Mark Dadswell/Getty Images)
While the loss of Prestia and O’Meara last year set the club back several years in its development, Ablett’s departure both further compounds the on-field lack of class and the off-field lack of professionalism and culture.
Just what his market value is, exactly, is hard to place. On one hand, Ablett is 33, with a bung shoulder that has restricted him to 14 games in each of the past two seasons.
On the other, he is still a best 22 player at every other club (I’d take two years of Ablett football over most other players in the competition), and won the club’s best and fairest this season – from 14 games. That probably tells the tale of Gold Coast’s current on-field situation.
At Gold Coast, he would likely split his time between the midfield and forward line, while at Geelong one imagines he will play nearly exclusively as a forward, perhaps venturing into the midfield to relieve Paddy Dangerfield at times.
His ability to kick 60 goals in a season playing as a medium forward would be priceless to a team (Geelong) trying to bridge the gap from preliminary finalist to grand finalist, while he remains Gold Coast’s classiest player by a fair way.
The club has resigned itself to Ablett’s loss, but that doesn’t mean it has to accept a sub-standard deal for him. Gold Coast chairman Tony Cochrane publicly declared last year that O’Meara would not be traded, before the club relented and traded him to the Hawks on the very last day of trade period.
The club managed to extract pick ten from the Hawks, but it was on the principle of the matter where Gold Coast lost out – despite its hardline statements, Gold Coast has a habit of relenting and eventually trading those players. Everyone in the AFL world knows that Ablett will not be at the Gold Coast next year – he’ll either retire or be playing in the white and blue hoops.
However, the club has (rightly) made it clear to clubs seeking to lure players away from the Gold Coast that it will not be letting them go without getting something in return.
(AAP Image/Jason O’Brien)
So, what does a reasonable outcome look like? Ablett is still a contracted player (he has a year remaining), and so Gold Coast hold the upper hand in any negotiations with Geelong. Gold Coast’s opening ambit claim has been to demand either Mitch Duncan or Nakia Cockatoo from Geelong.
The club knows this is not going to happen, but in doing so has shown that it won’t be bullied into trading Ablett for less than his market value. In Geelong’s favour is the fact that Gold Coast’s list has more holes than Swiss cheese, and other than key position players it is not really in a position to turn down established talent.
There’s also the fact that if a deal can’t be done, Ablett would retire, meaning the Suns get nothing for his departure.
Gold Coast has stated its desire for players, rather than picks, in return for Ablett. This is where it could get tricky for Geelong. The club has few players it would be willing to lose, and those it is are not likely to be of initial interest to the Suns.
It’s the age-old trade period scenario – you have to give up something to get something. Jake Kolodjashnij’s name has been floated as an option, as has Sam Menegola. The Cats seem unlikely to part with either, but Kolodjashnij’s family link to brother Kade certainly makes it a plausible option.
Then we come to Steven Motlop, who has toured Gold Coast’s facilities and is due to meet with new coach Stuart Dew this week. If Gold Coast land Motlop as a free agent, they may be persuaded to accept picks or lesser players from Geelong, having acquired a best 22 player. However, while Motlop would certainly bring an injection of class, his inconsistency would be a worry for Gold Coast, and I can see them wanting another more reliable player to complement Motlop.
If I were Gold Coast, I would stick to the initial demand for Duncan or Cockatoo for as long as possible. Negotiation technique says that you open high – higher than your expected return – and gradually barter down to something more realistic.
I’d argue that receiving one of the players whose names have supposedly been touted as possible trade bait would be unders for losing Ablett. Forcing the Cats to give up a player they really want would help the Suns send a message to the competition that clubs seeking to raid it in future will face a tough task. It’s time for this club to make a stand, and it starts here.
Shane
Guest
This ^
Shane
Guest
Not if that car is costing you a few hundred thousand dollars to sit in the garage. Are people here of the belief that the Gold Coast (and the AFL for that matter) can afford to essentially burn upwards of 300 thousand bucks just to make a point. You guys are off your rockers, seriously. The Gold Coast do not have leverage because of this.
Shane
Guest
Lol, "desperate". Pull the other one, mate.
Shane
Guest
Agree again, Cat. We had a patchwork forwardline that meant our high press could be exposed if our inexperienced forwards couldn't lock it in. Happy to predict improvement in that area if we can get all of McCarthy, Cocky, Parfitt, Gregson fit for the year.
Shane
Guest
So, you think they will be happy to carry his salary in their cap, if they play hardball? Can't see how, but fair enough. Are you confusing your dislike of Geelong with their actual ability to get deals done? We. Have. No. Picks. In the first round. But we will be active in the trade period, and hopefully land a Stringer or Watts for the picks we have, and not lose much at all for Gablett. Certainly can't see it being a best 22 player, anyway. And if it happens that way, it seems you will just have to suck lemons Paul, because there is nothing wrong with Geelong taking full advantage of the trade period if they can.
truetigerfan
Guest
And perhaps after you've successfully implemented your plan you can poke your tongue out and say,"Ha-ha! Got ya'".
truetigerfan
Guest
That's the way ! Get mean! Shop him 'round to all Vic clubs? You fail to understand or even consider that no other Vic clubs would be interested. It really is Geelong or nowhere and that's only because of the 'fairytale element' of the returning son of God. It would be a futile exercise and do GC more harm than good in the long term. Make him sit out for a year? He'll retire . . . that is clear! No breach of contract occurs. Again, only makes GC look bad! As far as Lever goes, I'm not surprised you take that stance. Ship him off to the worst team possible, yeah? So it's okay for Adelaide to bully this kid, question his honesty and integrity in public and then behave menacingly regarding where he goes next year. Very classy!
anon
Roar Pro
I would shop Ablett around to all Victorian clubs trying to get maximum value for a trade because Geelong holds the whip hand right now. If Ablett truly is homesick then getting to training in Melbourne is merely an hour's drive down the highway right? Live in Geelong, train in Melbourne. Or buy a second house closer to Melbourne. He's got a lot of money. Maybe splash out on Uber Black for trip from Melbourne back to Geelong after training. And then say we'll sit you out for a year if you don't go to the club we choose. If you spit the dummy and sit out next year -- not even playing for the NEAFL Suns -- we'll sue you for breach of contract. A line in the sand has to be drawn if the Suns want to stop homesick grown men from holding the club to ransom. In Lever's case, I'd look to ship him off to Carlton. Pick the worst Victorian team you can do a deal with not a potential top 8 rival.
Knoxy
Guest
I'd say that an ex-player called Karmichael Hunt and a few others were the ones bringing in 'questionable cultural influences'.
Bubby
Guest
As a Suns supporter who hated AFL before we had a team I'd like to thank GAZ. He has been a champion of the club and helped spread the game to a massive catchment of sporting talent that in 20 years time will bear fruit. That being said all the Geelong fans are absolutely kidding when they post he has no value. I watched every game he played and the guy is in better form then ever. Only reason he played 14 games is he knew he was leaving and managed his body. He will have 2 good years left and will bring a huge opportunity for a flag to Geelong. Without him they will come close but no cigar.
Danny
Guest
The go home factor seems to have escalated in recent years, perhaps due to free agency and more player say in where they end up. Since Victoria is home to most of the players as well as the traditional clubs, this is hurting most of the interstate teams. Of course those with less success, little or no history, smaller crowds are hardest hit. As an Adelaide supporter I am saddened by the exodus of good players in recent years but having read some of the comments here its clear that clubs like GWS and Gold Coast have been hit harder. Now players are becoming bolder and seeking to return home while still under contract. Its a tough call for the clubs...release the player for some compensation or let them retire or go to the draft? Stick to principle or be pragmatic? Clubs must be worried that if they bend over and release contracted players more of their list will follow suit so that it becomes the new norm. i have a feeling the AFL is going to step in soon and make some changes to move the balance of power away from the players and back to the clubs...of course not without a fight from the AFLPA.
DeanM
Guest
Considering he wont be around when Gold Coast possibly become contenders and for a few years now has been very injury prone, he is not worth a draft pick any lower than in the 40's. While Geelong are at it they should trade Spud Hawkins as a straight swap for Stringer if the Bulldogs are silly enough to take it.
Cat
Roar Guru
2. Ablett retire - his salary still counts against GC salary cap and he still takes up a list spot.
Johnno
Guest
If no deal gets done and 1. Ablett stays on to play (I know he has said he won't stay); or 2. Ablett retires. There aint much difference between those 2. Or if a trade gets done...then at least the Suns get something, at a minimum $500k.
me too
Guest
Cats opinion is just that, it is pure supposition, as you say a subjective and emotional response without knowing all the facts. I'm aure the Suns did all in their power to restore him to full health, what evidence is there to suggest they didn't? My post is likewise on the selfish and spoilt, hence the 'it seems', but on the other points it's sound. Why shouldn't Ablett compensate as the party breaking the contract?
Dexter The Hamster
Guest
Ah Pebbles.... Good memories.
MG
Roar Rookie
On one hand the Swans had to lose some players when Buddy arrived to free up salary space but on the other there was getting Buddy. Other players are also not so keen on the media and public attention that living in Melbourne, Adelaide or Perth entails with the Swans benefiting from that (eg Shaw and Tippett). So although there is a go home there is also go somewhere else at play. The go home (or more likely to succeed) being more common leaving the NSW and Queensland clubs at a huge disadvantage.
Cat
Roar Guru
Suns really should look at getting someone with a bit more tact and congeniality than the blowhard Cochrane, can't imagine his chest thumping and hard line stances are making GC any more of a club players want to go to. Doesn't mean they need to roll over and play dead, just need to be far more media savvy and keep the hardness behind closed doors.
Penster
Roar Guru
The car is not listed on carsales.com, the car is only interested in going to 1 particular garage and not the 9 other garages located in the vicinity. Other garages might have more to offer, but the car, curiously, has indicated that it will not start if not housed in this particular garage.
Cat
Roar Guru
I think Carlton (and their supporters) would agree with you considering the recent trades for Hendo and Tuohy.