Track bias on the biggest carnival days is always a delicate subject. Often, it’s a taboo one.
The broadcasters and media types that cover the sport refuse to acknowledge its presence, for fear that it will detract from the positive stories of the day. Criticism is not part of the job description in spring time.
Unfortunately for racing fans, a lightning rail track bias was a blight on Caulfield Cup day this year, just as it was on Cox Plate day and Derby day two years ago. Admittedly, Caulfield on Saturday wasn’t as bad as it was on those 2015 days, which were the most horrific biases we’ve seen this century.
On Saturday at Caulfield, horses sitting first and second in the run ran the quinella four times. Another two leaders ran second, and you can basically make that three, as Single Gaze in the Caulfield Cup was the de facto leader given Sir Isaac Newton was off in his own race going so hard out in front.
Ulmann won the Moonga Stakes from Burning Front in a close finish after both had spent their running time hard up against the rail. Echo Effect was third there after Damien Oliver took off around the field early in the race, knowing his horse needed to be up the front to be any chance.
The Tristarc Stakes quinella, Global Glamour and Cool Passion, were second and third in the run. Petition was second last on the rail at the 300m, and rocketed home in the fast lane like she was on a travellator.
When such bias is in play, the patient punter is rewarded most of all. Most will have an idea of who they are going to back going into a Saturday meeting, but the canny observer changes his strategies to allow for what is taking place.
Even horses like Boom Time and Single Gaze were probably over their true odds by the time the Caulfield Cup came around, given they were always going to settle in the prime spots.
The Cup trifecta, adding in favourite Johannes Vermeer for third, spend their entire races within two horses of the rail. Kathy O’Hara only had one ride for the day, but must have asked herself why she ever left the rail on Single Gaze at the 800m, which eventually allowed the winner to slip through on her inside.
Such a prominent bias creates dangerous working conditions for the riders, who all want to claim the same pieces of real estate, but there isn’t enough to go around.
It’s no coincidence that this was the roughest Caulfield Cup for a number of years, with four suspensions coming from it. Another three jockeys were suspended for careless riding throughout the day.
Similar to those Cox Plate and Derby meetings from 2015, it should be easy to identify coming winners based on horses that produced great efforts against the pattern of the day.
Marmelo in the Caulfield Cup was an obvious one with an outstanding performance down the middle, and has been installed as Melbourne Cup favourite accordingly. He ran the quickest 400m-200m and 200m-finish splits of the race, showing the stamina that will be required for 3200m at Flemington.
Shillelagh was arguably the run of the day in the Tristarc, to get as close as she did after coming from near last at the turn hooking around the field as the widest runner. She’ll be something to beat at Flemington in the Myer Classic, or they might even back up in the mares Group 2 at Moonee Valley this week.
Another horse to keep an eye on in Cup week is Shillelagh’s stablemate All Our Roads. He gave all runners weight in the Moonga, yet caught the eye out wide in the worst part of the track. A Group 2 winner earlier this year in New Zealand, Chris Waller is sure to have picked out a nice race for him during the Flemington carnival.
The spring carnival goes by with a rush at this time of year, and there are only three big Group 1 weekends left. Hopefully, the tracks play fairer than they did on Saturday.
kv joef
Roar Guru
on the right track or should i say lane, matt, and the implications are obvious. Concerning the finishing quinella in each race (20 horses) ... 40% (8/20) were the same rank in both morning mrkt and SP. at the end-of-play, the morning market (inc 40% same) was right 85% of the time(17/20) ... conversely, the SP could only get to 55% (11/20). That is over 50% more accuracy in comparison favouring the early market or pre-bias buzz. What it means is that those that did their form well and believed it, or wore ear-plugs, probably had an absolute picnic whether they were players or bookmakers. Most punters are hazy about what creates meaningful form. you don't have to be a form expert. there are plenty of simple, useful, logical strategies that can be employed by the recreational punter. BUT there is sooooooo much voooooodoo magic getting around mesmerising the great unwashed that you have to be very discerning to what you give importance. Pace-Bias has more to with continued race pressure brought about by the better/consistent horses. many 'better' horses usually settle in the first two race segments and generally near the fence or the race pressure finds them out regardless. 'better' horses force a consistent increase in pressure throughout until usually the last 200m or so when only the brave are left standing. usually, only capable horses can make ground as they have proven in the past efforts. A recent example was the Everest (Redzel) and consolation race (In Her Time). In Her Time ran a quicker 1200m. Although, the real story lay in the 200m splits - much quicker splits for the first 1000m in the Everest - a race of great quality - only the best were left ... Brave Smash at a mile :-) .
MattK
Guest
KV, i looked at these Caulfield market rankings yesterday, last night and again this morning. i think i know what you are hinting at? 9 of 10 winners were either equal or lower rank in the bookmakers morning market compared to race start SP. So bookmakers and early bettors got the form right in the morning market before anyone knew there was a track bias. the morning market was the most accurrate. am i right? i don't understand what you mean by pace bias? what's the difference between a track bias and a pace bias?
kv joef
Roar Guru
i was pleased to see Darren Weir question the dumb-a race riding tactics of his jockeys. Also, maybe wrong but didn't hear of Marmelo's change of tactics mentioned ... checked twitter and no stewards notification that natural pace-horse Marmelo was going to be dropped out ... no official questions post race from Bailey ... no vets report ... obviously things have changed from previous years :-) .
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
Luckily I did Cam, but I wasn't looking on the bright side at the time! After also backing Sovereign Nation the week before, there was a lack of good humour in my house!
Not so super
Guest
Of course no one mentioned the terrible bias at the Everest
Razzar
Guest
Race 3 you could assess bias, but at race 2 you’d only be guessing. Congratulations on your great selections. Can we await your next blogs,,,, after race THREE on your bets next Friday and Cox Plate day??
Mike from tari
Guest
You didn't mention Flemington for the last few years, to me they have stretched the racing out to have too many races at the tracks, you have the Caulfield, the Moonee Vally & the Flemington carnivals, so many lead in races at every venue that by the time the big race day comes you have track bias, I'm not just picking on Melbourne racing, look at the Everest day, backmarkers were stuffed, same thing at Caulfield. We all know that Melbourne racing commentators & & Journos are like their AFL counterparts, no criticism, no guts like their Sydney counterparts who criticise like hell if something is wrong.
Kangajets
Guest
So if you prepare for a year and get a heavy 10 , that’s bad luck if u can’t handle it too. Bad barrier draw , unlucky Unlucky but any jockey could have made a move to where the fast lane while that leader was 100 meters out in front So many what ifs ?
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Looking ahead, Geelong Cup and MV Cup are very weak this year
Rocket Surgeon
Guest
Looked like several miss ridden runners to me. Why is Craig Williams so highly though of? Way too cavalier for mine.
Razzar
Guest
Agree on the Wed Meeting. A very weak link now that The Thousand Guiness has been moved. Last three Cauf meets have displayed a level of on paced/rails bias. Only Sat was getting off the charts. 40 to 50% of time Cauf suffers from lead bias issues, looking at my records. Although watered, Very dry weather could be having some effect.
kv joef
Roar Guru
I thought the day would yield a pace bias. some players like to check their own race rankings whether expressed as and also with the books final S.P. Sometimes a significant change in Morning Odds to SP indicates all sorts of stuff like unanticipated track bias' - change in weather conditions ... you know all the sorts of stuff that can filter into a day's racing crowd psychology / buzz. The correlation (close comparison) of morning odds to S.P for the Caul meet was about a standard 92% ... in short what the rank they were willing to bet you in the morning was there at the end-of-play. What follows is the relationship for the first 4 over the line at the CC meet ... first number = Morning Odds Rank / second number = SP Rank (1 = fav etc). ... Race 1 1/1 2/3 2/2 5/8 Race 2 6/6 2/2 8/8 2/3 Race 3 1/1 8/11 3/4 1/1 Race 4 1/3 3/1 2/1 7/8 Race 5 3/3 1/1 6/6 4/3 Race 6 6/5 3/4 8/7 1/2 Race 7 1/1 4/3 3/4 2/1 Race 8 13/13 11/12 1/1 9/10 Race 9 3/6 11/12 7/3 2/6 Race 10 2/2 5/6 1/1 6/4 Interesting i thought.
uglykiwi
Roar Pro
I was at the track and decided after race 2; it was a bias track that leaders had a huge advantage. I just couldn't believe the prices I was getting; Pinot: never going to beaten on that track Cliffs Edge: would lead and win, easy Samovare should have won; Oliver......... make it a staying race... no he tried to be to cute. jockey out of form Global Glamour; great value at 10's Track was a a disgrace; it did not give the back markers a chance; I really dont care if commentators call it or not; you as the punter should look and know it. What this does mean is that I will not bet before the second race; you need to look at the state of the track before you bet; its one of the most important aspects of the punt;
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Scrap the Wednesday meeting and have the rail in true in CC day.
Cameron Rose
Expert
The Herbert Power stacked up, and the fact Lord Fandango finished fourth enhances the genuineness of Boom Time's win. He had the weight relief from the Herbert Power winner, and benefited from being in the right spot / bias. I think if the race went for another 100m, JV would have won. He was strong late, but also benefited from inside runs even with a bit of back and forth in the straight. I don't think he ever lost momentum though, to my eye.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Yeah, you're right in that we wait for over-compensation, which sometimes happens. As you say, it just becomes harder to trust your decisions. I think we'll see some of those winners under the odds at Flemington, and hopefully we can get some value around them.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Big weekend for Moonee Valley coming up. Two years ago, the Friday was full-on swoopers and Saturday was lightning rail. Then last year the rail was off and they were travelling 4-5 horses off it during the run.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Yeah, I know you're always a fan of the Caulfield track Andrew. I thought it was odd that not one word in any of the Herald-Sun, Age or racing.com on Sunday about the bias. Don't mention the war, etc. Yep, the Godolphin show carried on. None of theirs had any of mine on Saturday, although not necessarily because of the record, I didn't have any of them independently on top.
Mark Haywood
Roar Pro
The other question to be asked is if the Wednesday meeting is even required, with the Thousand Guineas being run on the Saturday. Bit of a bizarre meeting now - kind of like the VRC shifting the Oaks to Stakes Day, but still having a meeting on the Thursday. I know I know... it's all about quantity.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Haha. Hopefully you backed it each way...