We’ve got too many quality fast bowlers, our batsmen can score runs on our pitches, England’s top order is too weak, they don’t have Ben Stokes…
Really, why we’ll win the Ashes could go on and on.
But after Wednesday’s initial offering, here are the other reasons why we could well lose the sacred urn this summer.
The Australian side feels immature
I can’t recall an Australian team in recent memory that had a more immature vibe about it.
Matt Renshaw had to leave the field to go to the toilet; David Warner has declared war on England; Steve Smith seems to need loud mates around him to feel confident; Usman Khawaja likes to spit the dummy to the press; Glenn Maxwell is, well, Glenn Maxwell; Matt Wade got his job because of his sledging, a skill he’s consistently undermining with his poor performance.
To be fair, you’ve got a few who feel like grizzled old campaigners, who don’t seem like they’d melt when things go wrong – Mitch Starc, Nathan Lyon, Peter Handscomb, Steve Smith.
I just wish there were one or two more – say, like a Brad Haddin or a Mike Hussey type. To be honest, I don’t know who you’d bring in to fill that role now. There were players I feel were candidates but who have been driven out of the international game, like George Bailey, Cameron White and Chris Hartley.
When the pressure is on, this side tends to crack. They had several chances to win the series in India but fell in a heap. They did it in Sri Lanka and in the first Test in Bangladesh and against South Africa at home. And they could easily do it against England.
Pat Cummins’ body
It’s held up better than anyone hoped – I was terrified of him playing Tests, but it’s lasted so far. But he was so, so injured for so, so long. I’m nervous.
If he has a twinge or two it could not only dent our attack but also inspire silly decisions like bringing back Mitch Marsh as a ‘spare tire’.
AP Photo/Aijaz Rahi
England may not spontaneously combust
A lot of Australian success against England depends on the Poms spontaneously combusting during a Test series. In 2013-14 you had Graeme Swann and Jonathan Trott in free-fall and Kevin Pietersen sooking. In 2006-07 you had Duncan Fletcher replacing form players in Monty Panesar and Chris Read with the out-of-form Geraint Jones and Ash Giles in a doomed attempt to recreate 2005, and Andy Flintoff cracking under pressure.
But what if the English keep it together? What if they make sensible selections, back their players, ignore their media, and don’t panic if they have a few bad sessions? They’ll be a lot harder to defeat.
You can’t depend on England not to collapse in a heap all the time – as we found out to our detriment in 2009, 2010-11, 2013 and 2015.
England hold them
So they don’t have to win the series, they just have to draw.
Australia should win these Ashes, provided they play six specialist batsmen – they’re just so much more confident at home, and when you’ve got players like Chadd Sayers and Jackson Bird unable to get a game in the Test side it means your bowling stocks are pretty good. But it’s not going to be as easy as everyone else thinks.
Don Freo
Guest
Coulter-Nile's second ball of the game, got rid of Cook. Imagine the trouble NSW would be in if NCN played there. Interesting for Cartwright, his first over dismissed a really well set Steve Smith. #6 might be all wrapped up now.
Lochie Johnston
Roar Rookie
It's an interesting point to make that it will be closely fought though. England has top order bats that have been given plenty of chances in England (where they grew up) and still made hardly any runs. These blokes will hardly make runs in much bouncier and quicker wickets if they still have the same technique that hasn't got them runs in England. I'm backing Aus to win 3-1. England could possibly win one game if Cook and Root shine with runs and Broad bowls well. He bowled the best of all the English bowlers last series. My XI for Brisbane WARNER RENSHAW KHAWAJA SMITH (C) HANDSCOMB CARTWRIGHT NEVILL STARC CUMMINS HAZLEWOOD LYON
Lochie Johnston
Roar Rookie
It's an interesting point to make that it will be closely fought though. England has top order bats that have been given plenty of chances in England (where they grew up) and still made hardly any runs. These blokes will hardly make runs in much bouncier and quicker wickets if they still have the same technique that hasn't got them runs in England. I'm backing Aus to win 3-1. England could possibly win one game if Cook and Root shine with runs and Broad bowls well. He bowled the best of all the English bowlers last series. My XI for Brisbane WARNER RENSHAW KHAWAJA SMITH (C) HANDSCOMB CARTWRIGHT NEVILL STARC CUMMINS HAZLEWOOD LYON
Cric Whizz
Roar Rookie
Unusual things apart, Australia are a pathetic side when it comes to dealing with pressure and simply tend to crumble in pressure situations, especially in recent memory. This obviously includes the forgettable India ODI series of 4-1. Part of the reason is captain Smith not stepping up when required to.
Stephen Vagg
Roar Guru
I agree with this. Maxwell gets slapped down for making a comment about Wade, but Mark Waugh, Trevor Hohns, Pat Howard and Darren Lehmann seem to be able to say a lot worse and get away with it.
Bob Sims
Guest
You're really stretching it now, qwetzen. Maybe try a little harder to keep on point?
qwetzen
Guest
"...now Mark Waugh (questioning Renshaw’s place in the side)" Why hasn't CA censured Waugh for his repeated comments on Test selections? His sacking from the LO job would be ideal, but a public slapping would be acceptable.
JoM
Guest
Doesn't have anything to do with experience or inexperience. Same thing happened to me in Bali many years ago. We had met plenty of people and one night there were probably 25 of us went to dinner. 4 of us ordered lobster including me. The rest had other meals. I couldn't finish mine so another guy my hubby and myself had met had the other half. 3 of the lobster eaters were perfectly fine. Myself and the poor guy that shared my lobster got the good old Bali Belly. It happens.
Stephen Vagg
Roar Guru
I think we'll have to agree to disagree on India. For some bizarre reason, Mitchell Marsh was brought back to play the first two tests - even though he'd been in lousy form, and wasn't physically fit. They stuffed around with Khawaja. They thought Wade was good with the bat because he used to be but his batting form has struggled for the past two summers. We were in a prime position to win that second game but dropped the ball. But because Australia has collapsed so often and was coming off five losses in a row, our expectations were so low, and a 2-1 loss was seen as a triumph. I feel Australia should be expected to win those games - they should demand it of themselves. That's what a "best team in the world" does. During the great days of the Australian team, it felt it could win from anywhere, no matter how dire the situation - I don't think the team has had that self belief for a while now. Hence the frailty.
Stephen Vagg
Roar Guru
Thanks Brasstax for the nice words. Maybe I am pushing it with Renshaw's bowels - I just can't recall other players ducking off during an innings (or at least they're more subtle about it.) Maybe I'm looking at the past through Alan Border-esque glasses i.e. "In my day if you had to crap you'd do it on the field like a real queenslander".) I do feel Renshaw hasn't gone through his "sophomore slump" that all players seem to go through. I hope he doesn't do that this summer.
Brasstax
Guest
Are you Sheldon Cooper from the Big Bang Theory who can schedule his restroom visits? You said a more mature player would not have left the field to go to the toilet... would the mature player have then soiled his pants? Going to the loo before taking the field is useless when you have diarrhea... because you pass multiple times. Are you sure you had Delhi Belly? I respect you Stephen and keenly follow your articles, but you are feeding us on this one mate.
Brasstax
Guest
You forget that though we threatened a couple of times in India, we were playing a quality team almost invincible at home with batsmen at 8 and 9 that we would be very happy to bat at 6 and 7 for us at the moment. Being the good team that they are India fought back brilliantly and when they got into a position to close the game they did unlike us. We were beaten by a better team and on their home turf.... it happens and has nothing to do with frailty. Matt Renshaw leaving the field to go to the toilet... seriously, how much cricket have you watched? Yes i believe the Poms will put up a much tougher challenge than expected and the scoreline for the victor, whoever it is would be 3-2.
Tanmoy Kar
Guest
Australia will certainly win the Ashes Series, but it could be a closely fought Series.
John Erichsen
Roar Guru
White ball runs are scored on good batting strips so they shouldn't be regarded too highly. They can identify a player who has had time in the middle but its a very different game. Fields are spread so edges fly safely for runs, rather than than caught in the slips cordon and lofted strokes have more chances to fall into gaps with half the field back on the ropes. 4 day runs should be a far more prized commodity.
John Erichsen
Roar Guru
As recent as last summer, our much vaunted bowling looked extremely fragile as South Africa amassed 5/540 in Perth. Lyon was quite ordinary last summer, apart from two good spells. Hopefully, his subcontinent success carries him into the Ashes with confidence high. Another area of fragility in recent years is the regularity of losing wickets in batches. In my opinion, this is one of the greatest dangers Australia face as it hands momentum over to the opposition on a sliver platter. That same Perth test is a great example. 0/158 turns into 244 all out in 90 minutes. Carey simply doesn't have runs on the board to suggest he is ready for a test number seven spot at this point of his career. Nevill was hard done by and dumped as much for a failing middle order as for his own lack of runs. I couldn't agree more about Cartwright. He looks like a good number six. There is plenty being spoken about our fast bowling depth. If that chatter is even close to accurate, a single injury to one of our quicks should harm us little apart from the actual game the injury occurs in.
Stephen Vagg
Roar Guru
I remember in 2006 when Flintoff was injured, England had a really good team, with Strauss as captain, and Panesar as the spinner and Read as keeper. Then when Flintoff came back for 06-07 ashes he threw out the balance of the side.
The Bush
Roar Guru
Flintoff is vastly overrated in Australia. The reason why Flintoff will be remembered a lot longer in the memory than someone like Watson is because he did have a few series where by was amazing and played above his career stats. But he must have had some pretty average series too. That was the perception problem for Watto, statistically he was perfectly acceptable for an allrounder, the problem is he never seemed to turn it on when needed so that it lead to memorable victories (a la Flintoff in '05).
The Bush
Roar Guru
I'd prefer about ten batsmen over Maddison.
Stephen Vagg
Roar Guru
Fast bowling's always been a massive strength in Australia. About seven years ago Australia went through a "form recession" with available batsmen and a "form depression" with available spinners but we always had a bunch of good speedsters to draw upon.
Stephen Vagg
Roar Guru
It's especially massive for Australia because losing to England at home is massive. Last time it happened there was a whole review.