With the trade period done and only drafts and delisted free agency period to be completed, we can now make our first look at ladder predictions for next year.
I am predicting another tight season, with only three wins between first and tenth, and percentage again deciding the difference between eighth and ninth. Here is my ladder prediction.
First – Sydney – 15-7
Sydney were a very dominant team for most of 2017, and went 14-3 after their 0-6 start to the season. I am predicting them to have a great 2018 season and take out the minor premiership for the third time in five years.
Second – Port Adelaide – 15-7
Port Adelaide had a strong draft period, getting Tom Rockliff and Steven Motlop as free agents and trading for Jack Watts, as well as signing Trent McKenzie as a delisted free agent and seem likely to draft Lindsay Thomas as a rookie. They will succeed in beating a top eight side next season, which will result in a second-place finish for the Power.
Third – Geelong – 15-7
“Ablett, passes to Selwood, who handballs to Dangerfield and kicks for home from 50! It’s a goal!” That would be the perfect piece of commentary for the Cats after a successful trade period where they brought Gary Ablett home without trading any major players to the Suns for him. I am predicting another top-four finish for the Cats, and they will be hoping to push for a premiership.
(Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)
Fourth – Richmond – 14-8
The 2017 AFL premiers haven’t lost any of the premiership gang over the off-season so far despite a three-game suspension to Nathan Broad. I can’t see the Tigers dropping outside the top four as a result of that, and another strong season will be expected for 2018.
Fifth – Hawthorn – 14-8
The threepeaters between 2013 and 2015 lined up with a different, younger, developing side more often in 2017, and they will once again get younger with the departure of former skipper Luke Hodge to Brisbane. Despite this, I am predicting that the Hawks talented youngsters will rise this team back up the ladder in 2018.
Sixth – Melbourne – 14-8
The fire in the belly will burn for the Demons after missing out on finals by percentage in 2017. Their young talent such as Christian Petracca, Angus Brayshaw, Jesse Hogan, and new recruit Jake Lever, as well as experienced players Jordan Lewis and Nathan Jones will guide the mighty Dees to September action for the first time since 2006.
Seventh – GWS Giants – 14-8
The Giants finished inside the top four in the past two seasons with a young, talented, exciting group of players. However, they lost Stevie J, Shane Mumford, Nathan Wilson, and Matt Kennedy to retirement and trades this year, and I believe that they will take a minor dip down the ladder.
Eighth – Adelaide – 13-9
Last year’s runners-ups failed in their quest to win the 2017 premiership, and despite crossing Bryce Gibbs off their wish list during the trade period, I believe that they will play finals on percentage.
(Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)
Ninth – Western Bulldogs – 13-9
The 2016 premiers endured a difficult 2017 season, splitting the win-loss ledger to finish tenth, and became the first team to miss the finals the year after winning the premiership since Hawthorn in 2008-2009. They’ve made some changes to their list, and I do expect them to improve, however they will miss the finals on percentage.
Tenth – Essendon – 12-10
“You have Essendon finishing tenth? How?” readers might question. Let me explain my prediction. Yes, they did manage to trade to get Stringer, Smith, and Saad, however, they did lose experienced players such as Jobe Watson, Brent Stanton, and James Kelly, and are also lacking big-bodied, strong, inside midfielders. I am expecting the Bombers to finish around the same number of wins as last season.
Eleventh – Carlton – 9-13
Mark my words, the Navy Blues will be on the up in 2018! They won’t make finals, but their younger players such as Petrevski-Seton, Matt Kennedy, Darcy Lang, Patrick Cripps, plus many more players will continue to develop, and I believe that they will win three more games than last season.
(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
Twelfth – St Kilda – 9-13
I believe that the Saints will make a minor dip down the ladder next year. They lost Nick Riewoldt, Leigh Montagna, and Sean Dempster to retirement, and it will be a year of development before contesting for finals 2019 and beyond. The first step to September action will be to find Riewoldt’s long-term successor.
Thirteenth – West Coast – 9-13
Similarly to the Saints, the Eagles lost plenty of experience in Sam Mitchell, Matt Priddis, and Drew Petrie’s retirement at the end of the 2017 season. The next few years will be development time for the younger players. They must nail their picks in this year’s draft in order to build for the future.
Fourteenth – Collingwood – 8-14
Collingwood have been on the down for such a long time under Nathan Buckley, and I see them continuing to slide down the ladder in 2018 despite an easy fixture, which may result in the sacking of Buckley as head coach with a year left on his contract.
Fifteenth – Brisbane – 8-14
The Lions looked very exciting at times throughout the 2017 season, and with the recruitment of Luke Hodge and Charlie Cameron a definite to help their playing stocks and help nurture the young talent on their list. I am predicting them to be in the bottom four and finish fifteenth on percentage.
Sixteenth – Fremantle – 6-16
Despite the Dockers successful trade period, I am predicting that 2018 will be another long year for Fremantle fans, with only six wins for the season.
17th – North Melbourne – 5-17
North Melbourne failed to make any major noise in the trade period despite being linked to Dustin Martin and Josh Kelly throughout the season, and I am predicting that 2018 will be a rebuilding year and this year’s draft will be an important launching pad for their future.
Eighteenth – Gold Coast – 5-17
New coach, no Gary Ablett to be a one-man team for them, and it leads to a fresh start. I am predicting the Suns to take the wooden spoon on percentage, however it will be an important year for their future. Here’s to hope Stuart Dew will be the man to lead them to their first finals series within the next five years.
With my prediction, my prediction of the finals would then look like this.
Week 1
Sydney v Richmond – SCG
Port Adelaide v Geelong – Adelaide Oval
Hawthorn v Adelaide – MCG
Melbourne v GWS – MCG
Week 2
Sydney v Hawthorn – SCG
Geelong v Melbourne – MCG
Week 3
Richmond v Geelong – MCG
Port Adelaide v Sydney – Adelaide Oval
Grand final
Sydney v Geelong – MCG
2018 Premiers: Geelong
Plus, what are 2018 predictions without Brownlow and Coleman Medal predictions?
Brownlow Medallist – Dustin Martin from Richmond
Coleman Medallist – Josh Kennedy from West Coast
That’s my 2018 predictions. Do you agree or disagree? What are your thoughts? Comment below.
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
Is HTH a bot?All that aggression and such a small focus makes me think he might be a poorly scripted AI wargamer who's strayed on to the wrong thread
Don Freo
Guest
Nah. Nat will bypass all these plebian mortal rewards. He will go straight to a Sainthood and Angel's Wings.
dave
Guest
Don that is a ridiculous prediction when it is obvious Nat Fyfe is going to win the coleman,brownlow and norm smith.Its just a shame he is ineligible for the rising star but maybe Darcy can give it to Fyfe like Beveridge/Murphy.
Paul D
Roar Guru
I would have thought someone with appalling tactics and a jinxed record in grand finals would fit in well at Collingwood actually
Chris
Guest
No Collingwood man would accept Ross Lyon because of his appalling tactics and jinxed record in Grand Finals. Moreover, the inability to entertain will not enhance him to the crowd. Look at Mourinho at Manchester United. He has got them playing better than they had been playing in recent years but there is no X-Factor and he may be treading on thin ice. The same rule will apply to Mr. Lyon. If Harsh Truth Harry wants us to sink into oblivion then I would kindly ask that he concern himself with the other 17 teams and give us some space. We will improve contrary to what most people think and we should be around 7th or 8th by the first week of September. Then it will come down to how the crowd fire up the boys. If they get behind them, then a Preliminary Final berth is a distinct possibiltiy. As for the much hyped Port Adelaide and Essendon, they may find out that you can't buy a Premiership with duds and rejects. Stars are born and Champion teams are moulded. Patchwork can only go so far. I think Geelong may get a tremendous shock, too. They may be on a premature rebuild because both Selwoods have exceeded their use-by date and Mr Ablett is retirement village material.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Unfortunately, Apeness is a bit of a puff of ship's smoke on the horizon, isn't he? You spend a year out of the game and it can take you that long to hit for full straps again (especially for a guy who's barely played to start with). If Taberner can master the pack-mark on a consistent basis and he can write his own cheque. Again, it's a bit of a hypothetical at this point, but when he plays angry he looks a much better player. And Cox is as encouraging as all get out, but second-year players often have a bit of a gap year, fingers crossed that doesn't happen to him, he's a very tricky proposition to stop for the opposition.
Don Freo
Guest
That's where getting Apeness on the park will be so good. Luke McPharlin said playing on him at training, he had some of the best strength in a pack of all the players he had played on and that his hands were really impressive. We have seen that in his few games. Taberner's big improvement this year is also on the back of holding contested marks. Cox, too has shown that but he doesn't quite have the height of the other two...although he does have the bulk and more speed.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Absolutely, forward structure would be the key area for improvement. A big pack-marker especially. Produce one of those, even just at the very good level, and it'd be massive for Freo's forward line. It's been a long hunt, so we shouldn't hold our breath. If you look at some of the big factors at play last year in the forward line (two newbies trying to fit in to key posts, McCarthy coming back from a year out) vs the actual way their scoring patterns panned out (scored very strongly in extended patches within games and fade out in others), fits neatly into the idea that greater fitness and time to gel are big requirements. It is very encouraging as to how the forward line potentially could progress with that year behind them.
Macca
Guest
Half Baked Harry - 3 days and 6 hours after I posted this comment you respond! I would have thought that after all that time you could have come up with something better than that disappointing effort. I would like to say you can do better but based on what you have produced so far I doubt you can, especially as you seem to have peaked about a week ago and you are deep into re-runs. " can’t see why it will now' that is because you are too busy looking back 22 years - as the industry super funds love to tell us "past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance".
Harsh Truth Harry
Roar Rookie
Don't know why you are laughing HJ....zero flags from the Buddy era for the Swans and an ageing, slow old list. Just like the Cats with Dangerfield, throw everything into one player and no cups from it.
Harsh Truth Harry
Roar Rookie
considering it hasnt gone right in 22 years, can't see why it will now
Hungry Jack
Guest
Bwaaaaaahahaha!
Harsh Truth Harry
Roar Rookie
Hungry Jack, we all know you are hurting with zero flags from the mega Swans Buddy deal and era....unfortunately Harry's harsh truth is the Swans and cats continually make finals as they know how to play their little toy grounds where their lack of pace is masked. Bith sides get found out on the wide open spaces of the G where fast sides run them ragged....when they play each other its toss a coin as to who is hungrier as they are both slow as treacle. Harrys harsh truth of the day - Swans recruitment of Buddy Franklin a failure as zero flags resulting, Cats recruiting of Rodney "let me carry my baby through the banner before a crucial final" Dangerfield will be the same. The Dogs supporters must be laughing their heads off at both clubs as they scored big time with Tom Boyd and a flag in 2016.
Macca
Guest
Peter - "Have you seen his highlight reel on Pies website? He may well be the next Dusty Martin." Settle down there Tiger - it is NEAFL. Below is from an article on Jed Lamb when he was still with the Giants; "His NEAFL year was highlighted by an eight-goal display against Sydney’s NEAFL side, with his 37.29 from 13 games the most for an AFL-listed player. He has averaged 19 possessions, 116 SuperCoach points, 2.8 goals and seven marks a game but hasn’t played a single senior game for the Giants this year" Since coming to Carlton Lamb has played 26 games in 2 years averaging 12.6 possessions, 4.1 marks and 0.73 goals.
Harsh Truth Harry
Roar Rookie
Ha ha ha ha ha ha....a Pies fan not only claiming top 4 but you have supposedly recruited an untried rookie from the Swans who is the next Dustin Martin??? Wish I was your bookie. Collingwood added nothing to your list in the trade period, the same list that finished 13th. There is no such thing as an easy draw now so I see you around the same next year before Buckley gets sacked and replaced by Ross Lyon as Freo stagnate as well in 2018.
Harsh Truth Harry
Roar Rookie
Blimey Don Freo....can't you see I was exaggerating for emphasis! Of course he isn't that height and weight....
Peter the Scribe
Guest
I’ll be here next year Hungry J watching you lot squirm as the Pies soar under Bucks to the top 4! Thanks HJ for the rookie you couldn’t find a spot for at the Swans. Have you seen his highlight reel on Pies website? He may well be the next Dusty Martin.
Maurice
Guest
Adding Motlop Watts Rockliff is not going to turn things around for port . Adding Gibbs to Adailade could give them the next step. Melbourne overrated Hawks and Sydney are too high . Carlton for the Spoon. Freo as a dark horse . 2 different crystal balls
Hungry Jack
Guest
Collingwood top 4! Ah-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha! Ah-ah-ah-ah-ah-ah!
Stirling Coates
Editor
Don't know how Adelaide slide to eighth. Need a bit more than what you've written here to back that up.