Our half time break is over, and we’re heading into the premiership quarter of Cup week at Flemington.
Ace High took out the Derby, Rekindling the Melbourne Cup, and now Oaks Day is upon us. Hopefully you’ve still got a few shekels bouncing around in your pocket, and are ready to partake again.
Aloisia is the white hot Oaks favourite, and with every reason to be.
She showed us a touch of class as a two year-old in taking out a Flemington race in her Melbourne debut, beating Salsamor who has gone onto prove himself a very handy three-year-old. Aloisia followed that win with a closing second in the Group 1 JJ Atkins up in Brisbane.
This season, she has stamped herself a star.
After a first-up run that was better than it looked upon reflection, she emerged to take out the Thousand Guineas in fine style second-up. She relegated Shoals to second there, and that filly beat all of the older mares in the Myer Classic on Derby day. Third was Alizee, who was coming off a barnstorming spring up in Sydney.
Last start, Aloisia was utterly dominant in the Vase at Moonee Valley. Left in her wake was Cliff’s Edge, who is in the best handful of boys in his year. Her win suggested the 2500m of today’s Oaks trip won’t prove an issue. If she can get a cosy run, look out.
There do look some nice types in the field alongside Aloisia, it must be said.
Luvaluva looks the second pick, even if the market slightly disagrees. She’s really hit her straps at the last two starts, splitting a couple of handy boys up in Sydney, before relishing 2000m and the Flemington straight in winning the Wakeful Stakes on Saturday.
Lining her up against the favourite here, she was 5-6 lengths of Alizee in the Flight Stakes, who was a couple of lengths of Aloisia in the Thousand Guineas.
Pinot was certainly helped by the bias in taking out the Ethereal Stakes on Caulfield Cup day, but it was a strong win and her form has been very good all preparation.
Rimraam and Hiyaam tie the formlines of Luvaluva and Pinot together, given they ran consistently and both finished top four in each of the Ethereal and Wakeful. They’ll show up again, and are solid place hopes.
Bring Me Roses was a breathtaking winner of the Manifold at Flemington on Turnbull Stakes day back at the start of October, but had a race to forget in the Wakeful on Saturday. She is one that is clearly a potential improver on her last start, and looks a big price for those looking to bet around Aloisia.
Of the others, Reliable Dame looks the most likely to have an impact. She has no early speed whatsoever, but has been rattling home in her races. The Geelong Classic stood up okay in the Derby, and she’ll stay on at the very least.
No prizes for putting Aloisia on top, but she’s a star, the form around her can’t get any hotter, and it looks her race to lose. Bring on the Australian Guineas and Australian Cup next year.
Selections: 1.Aloisia 2.Luvaluva 3.Hiyaam 4.Reliable Dame
(Photo by Graham Denholm/Getty Images for the VRC)
If you’re looking for an anchor to start some double into Emirates Stakes day on Saturday, Ball of Muscle in Race 6 appears to be the best candidate.
Ball of Muscle is the best weighted horse of the Flemington carnival. His form behind Redzel and In Her Time is simply irresistible, as Robert Palmer might say, and he’s run well down the straight before. Look for him to sit outside Highly Geared in the lead on the outside fence, and keep on going.
Echo Effect in Race 5 looks another nicely weighted horse, based on his last start third to Ulmann, who is the toppie in this race. He’s the most lightly raced galloper in the field, and has been targeted at this race from a long way out. He’s drawn perfectly to sit in the third pair, and is an each-way special.
If looking for something at big odds to finish the day, Shudabeen is right in calculations at 30-1. She was only three and a half lengths behind Viridine in the Roman Consul, and we saw that horse start favourite and run fifth in the Coolmore Stakes on Saturday, against the best three-year-old sprinters in the land.
The form out of the Roman Consul has been very solid, and Shudabeen has drawn favourably out wide to run in the best ground late in the day. Back to 1100m suits her too, and she’ll give a great sight up on the speed at enormous value.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Nice tip on Ball Of Muscle Cam, I followed that one.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
You got your Moroney money. Racetrack rumours (which have a poor s/r) are telling us why Smerdon has no winners
kv joef
Roar Guru
v.hard to argue against Aliosa but surprised you left Pinot out of your T4. hasn't done a lot wrong. She has a seriously good pedigree. If she were to win this i can't imagine how much she would be worth ... probably as much as Aliosa. I think we'll get a good contest off a solid pace. Has the Quarterback trialed somewhere after his last start shocker? what went wrong with him? is there a steward's report ... off. vet certificate? where do you go to look at trial-form in Vic? NSW has all trial-form easily accessible and 'post' vet-reports are included in stewards reports ... all of which are on the RacingNSW website. Victoria - Australia's leading racing state ... really? Anyway back to business ... always liked the tues and thurs were the astute find good value. Nice to see the Ellerton/Zahra team firing, always one of the first teams i look at when they race at Flemington. Mike Moroney usually warms up around this time. Suppose Pat Carey hasn't produced his longshot chance yet. Robert Smerdon is yet to strike a blow ... very unusual during this week. Lindsay Park, Weir and Waller have sent some promising contenders into the fight today. Should see where those gallopers future lay after today. The second half of the card looks really good, full of promising types. All-in-all, a v.good days racing. Good Luck.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Four trials! I think you might be onto something there...
Cameron Rose
Expert
Thanks Razzar, certainly a big week. Hopefully a few more winners to come yet. A few good betting races today I reckon. Agree on the Country Cup. Thought Savaju was good value there coming out of the Night's Watch race, which I agree is the form. Captain Rhett is going in my early quaddie. Lines up nicely thorough a few of these, and backmarkers that ran at Geelong are starting well overs. I think Pinot is a bit of a risk, or at least I wouldn't have her second favourite, based on the bias last start. She might push Aloisia, but I'm sort of banking on her being first beaten having one run too many. Waterhouse is flying in Vic though, to give her due credit.
MAX
Guest
Hi Cam, Will go with you on BOM... will chance the SP being best. Fabrizio will add the Ladies Day Cup to his Hawkesbury Cup. Gai has given him 4 BT's for this. Jarrod McLean double day at W'bool. Farnor West and Bryan.
Razzar
Guest
No rest for the wicked Cam. Keep up the good work. Re Melb Cup; just wondering what price Rekindling would have started had he ran here prior to Melb Cup. I think the market factored in the poor stat of going straight into the big one. With Kvs piece he really was massive overs. One pro I noticed, marked him a $6.50 chance. Don Adams of Maxwell Smart fame, in retirement loved punting. Hitting the tracks up to five days a week. He used to say “I love the horses. Yes! I win a few days! and I lose a few months” Country Cup looks an ok betting race, plenty of speed. I am the Dark, is fit and although been up a while, has drawn to get forward run here, plus equaling topping the weights often is an advantage, as quality factor. $10 rating Astro Castro can run along here, looks to be really at his top now, looks a top chance here. $7.50 rating Tranquil Miss looks to race midfield with cover, with solid tempo here, she’s now primed to hit line well. $7.50 rating Risking the fav as looks now too hard in market to consider a win bet. The Oaks almost looks Aloisia’s to lose. If it’s tempo controlled there maybe a doubt, but she could be a future star. The most likely threat could be Pinot, the daughter of Piero that’s producing some handy gallopers. She seems to race with a strong constitution, so should give something for the fav to chace....probly an easy leg of quaddie to snare. It’s an an absolutely beautiful day in Melb today... Good luck Punters.