In an extraordinary trade period move, Lachie Weller is now a Gold Coast Sun. A last-minute move, driven by the player and completed by the fledgeling Queensland side, saw the Suns part with the prized second pick in the 2017 national draft.
The move raised many eyebrows among those in the football industry. In the view of most, Weller, a 21-year-old with less than 50 games experience, was not worth the chance at picking up the second-best young player in the country in the draft.
From a list management perspective, Weller’s potential was less – and in the eyes of many, far less – than what could be extracted from pick 2.
The Suns, led by CEO Mark Evans, saw the situation differently. Their desire to land a player of note in the trade period to replace the departing Gary Ablett meant their hand was forced, particularly when Weller so publicly requested a trade home.
That Weller has roots and family connections on the Gold Coast made the trade even more enticing for the Suns, who couldn’t pass up the chance to land a player with the potential to be the cream of their midfield for the next decade. More importantly, the club couldn’t pass up the chance to land a player who wanted to be there.
It is this last reason that is so concerning for Queensland clubs. In the age of free agency and player power, players are increasingly finding homesickness an unacceptable challenge of being an AFL footballer. This is understandable given the ever-increasing standards set for being a professional high-performing athlete and the spotlight that comes with being a footballer.
This landscape is meaning clubs are turning their focus to players from their home state to fill sizeable portions of their list. For example, West Coast is expected to use a large number of its glut of middle and late draft picks on mostly West Australians in the upcoming draft in order to ensure they have a core of homegrown talent to launch their rebuild from.
In other words, a core a players that are absolute certainties to stay at the club.
(AAP Image/Tony McDonough)
However, this is not a luxury that the Queensland clubs enjoy. The dearth of footballers that hail from the AFL’s most northern state means that it is difficult for Queensland clubs to build lists that are comparable to clubs that are from more AFL-orientated states.
The reason is simple. Statistically in a smaller sample size there will not be as many comparably talented players as there would be in a larger sample size, such as in Victoria or South Australia. Therefore it becomes harder for the Suns and the Brisbane Lions to build lists capable of challenging for premierships.
In this new age of free agency players can nominate their preferred club even if they are not eligible for actual free agency. A major flaw in the club-versus-player power struggle is that these clubs are virtually forced to deal with this club.
Because the majority of players are from Victoria and despite the large number of clubs and potential trades for the Lions or Suns to gain, if they don’t deal with the player’s club of choice, they face losing him for nothing in the preseason draft. The player will simply refuse to sign for another club who picks him.
The best example of this are the ‘go-home five’ for the Brisbane Lions, who departed in the summer of 2013. After losing five of their brightest talents, four of who were in the Brisbane best 22 the year before, the Lions have had to go through yet another rebuild to get the club back on track. Although the squad is brimming with talent, they finished last in 2017.
(Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
And yet the players the club gave away have been successful at other clubs. Elliot Yeo just won the West Coast best and fairest award, while Sam Docherty was an All Australian this year. Billy Longer is the first-choice ruckman at St Kilda, and Jarad Polec is established in the Port Adelaide side.
The Lions received no first-round picks for these players despite the fact two, arguably three, would command a top five pick now. Add those four to the Lions side and they are, in the estimation of this column, a three to four-win better side than their 5-17 record in 2017.
This trade period the Suns gave away Gary Ablett, a two-time Brownlow medalist and their best and fairest winner last year, for an end-of-first-round selection – though admittedly there were other factors involved in this – while Brisbane received a mid-range second round and an early third-round for their number two pick, Josh Schache.
The clubs are bleeding talent and getting peanuts in return.
The effect is twofold. As more players than average depart the Queensland clubs to ‘go home’, fewer players want to move back home north due to the comparatively low number of Queensland footballers in the AFL system. This forces the two Queensland clubs to overpay for players that want to come home.
The Suns gave up more than what Lachie Weller is worth in the eyes of the industry simply because he wanted to come home. Likewise the Lions for Charlie Cameron.
This means that over time these two clubs will expend more to build a list and receive less for departing players. Although both clubs may get it right with their respective additions this season, statistically, over a long period of time, these clubs will be at a disadvantage compared to others. This can be seen in their success record – the Lions haven’t made the finals in eight seasons, Gold Coast have never made them.
It is clear the current free agency system puts Queensland clubs at a distinct and unfair disadvantage. If the AFL are serious about making a good go of footy in Queensland, something needs to change.
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
Definitely forced the move when you show all your cards!
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
My hope for the next season is competitive effort in every game by the Lions and Suns ( even when the tide goes against them) and not fall away to 70-80-90 point losses as has been the case the past 2-3 years. The Suns in particular need to harden up mentally and I was was bitterly disappointed in how often throughout 2017 they threw in the white towel when it all got a bit hard. There is young talent in both sides - the key now is development and retention and to start climbing up the ladder. They both have their house in order off-field with regards to CEO and Coaches and should get another good crop of talent in the door from the Draft next week.
George
Guest
What annoys me about Weller's trade that Weller and his team stupidly declared that Suns guaranteed him the deal. Once Freo got the sniff it was over.
George
Guest
Agree, it's a matter of opinion. It just surprised me that you think that Lions will play finals in 2 years and Suns not in 5 years. I really think in 2 years Lions will be missing 25-28 old core contrary to Suns. Pretty comfortable comparing May/Thompson/Leslie vs Andrews/McStay/Gardiner. Yep, healthy Thompson would help. Suns have also 3rd defenders Joyce, Spencer, Scrimshaw, Day can play there too if he makes comeback (so far so good). Next year academy Graham is unbelievable talent who can play both ends of ground. Of course Wright is work in progress. But he has unbelievable tank and should flourish under new coach (as some other players I suspect). He needs to build his confidence. I also had a feeling that Rocket had him running to the ground, so he did not have energy in the contest. No doubt Hipwood is fantastic talent and year younger but also work in progress. I compared their numbers, Wright better in most at the moment.
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
One can only hope that the talk of Tram Lines running west from Broadbeach through to Robina Town Centre/CBus Stadium and Metricon Stadium start gaining momentum as it will certainly assist getting people to and from sport on the GC. The set up at the moment with the buses is laughable.
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
Hi PaulD – I am also in favour of it and I think you have touched on this before that the QLD Clubs need to operate differently to the rest of the competition because of geographic location. When a player like Charlie Cameron or Lachie Weller openly state that they want to move to QLD, then the Clubs up here should get them in and it also probably means that they will pay overs. We know that the draft can be a lottery at times (although there has never been greater sharing of information and tracking of prospects as now) and the Lions know what Cameron is going to bring in 2018 and the Suns know what Weller is going to bring in 2018 and both players are young enough that they can be at those Clubs for the next decade. I have stated in a different thread that I thought that the Lions should opt for Uniake-Davies with Pick 1 and O’Brien at Pick 15 (if available) as they are both Vic Country kids that don’t have strong ties to the city of Melbourne. Cam Rayner is the favourite for pick 1 but I don’t think the Lions should risk it, being a Vic Metro player and I think they already have enough of the Half-Forward can play through the middle type of player on the list.
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
Hi George - good analysis. The two teams are very similar in stages of rebuild but I just have a feeling the Lions are a bit better advanced and have more depth, particularly in the Key Position Areas of the ground. But its only my feeling based on watching these two Clubs very closely throughout the season. For the Suns if May goes down at Full Back they only have Thompson (perennially injured) and Leslie (third tall forward defender) and virtually nothing in cupboard beyond that whereas the Lions currently have Andrews, Gardiner and McStay that can play down back along with Skinner (if he can overcome the latest knee injury). The comparison of Hipwood (Lions) and Wright (Suns) is pertinent. Hipwood just seems to have so much more zeal and appetite for the contest and knows how to kick goals - he is just a super young player to watch and I think his trajectory is going to be similar to Buddy Franklin when he fills out. The challenge for Peter Wright is to actually start clunking some marks and throwing his weight around (very similar to Josh Schache in this respect) and stop being such a "nice" player. Wright needs to learn to intimidate on the field and not just get pushed around by guys shorter/lighter than him. It will be great to watch the development of McCluggage, Berry. Witherden and Cox versus Ainsworth, Brodie, Scrimshaw and Bowes in the coming years - that was a very very solid draft effort by both Clubs in 2016.
pussyblue
Guest
Cant see many of those suggestions are going to fly and I'm not sure where the fixture bias is other than possibly the Friday night fixture. Any perceived bias there, could be removed by spreading these games evenly between the previous seasons top eight. I Agree that premierships should only count since the AFLs inception. This would be a good reset. Changing medal names is never going to satisfy anyone. I'm sure if the AFL had its way the Brownlow would become the Ford/Toyota/Mcdonalds/Hungry Jack Medal. Not sure how you are going to get rid of 4 clubs. The bottom 4 clubs have over 170,000 card carry members, let alone the huge supporter base that are not actual members.That is also a huge TV audience that the AFL would put offside. Forgetting the Contract with the MCG for the GF, firstly there are not enough big grounds interstate. If there were I could see a day where if 2 different interstate teams played in a GF they played on a neutral ground. For instance Crows V Richmond would be played in Sydney Brisbane or Perth, providing they can sell out the ground, after all money talks when it comes to the AFL. As for growing the game in the Northern state this is going to take a long time and may not even happen with the popularity and history of NRL in these states. Also in trying to grow supporter bases interstate especially in non AFL states the AFL does not want to alienate the supporters in the south. A fact of football is that other than NSW the other states capital cities combined do not have the population of Melbourne. The AFL has to be careful in expanding the game not to kill the goose that lays the golden egg, as the Victorian audience is a big source of revenue. IMHO the mere fact of Victorias' population combined with its' huge support base for the AFL, together with the fact it is the largest supplier of players, means it will have a large influence over the game now and at least in the near future. Fair? Maybe not. If AFL was based on fairness Tasmania would've had a team in the AFL before the northern states but that's the reality of modern day professional sport.
Paul D
Roar Guru
As always great comments SC - just out of interest since you didn't touch on it, what's your thoughts on trading high end picks like the Suns did this year? I'm all in favour of it, thought it was a good move
Paul D
Roar Guru
I have this mental image now of people supporting mining companies like football clubs "he could have been a one company miner and he ditches good ol' Twiggy and Fortescue for BHP - absolute grub"
George
Guest
While I want both Suns and Lions to succeed I would disagree on your On-Field Success analysis. I actually think Suns have better depth and better age list composition. In two years, Lions best mature players, Beams, Zorko, Martin, Rich, Robinson will be 30+. Suns spine, Lynch and May just entering prime and in 2 years will be 27-28 years old. Plenty of talent on Suns team. You would hope that Dew and other admin changes will have similar effect as Fagan/Noble had on Lions players. First preseason in proper facilities should also help. What I really liked last year about Lions is that they drafted really well and players who were able to contribute immediately. While Sun 4 top 10 picks were not as advanced, in 1-2 years Ainsworth, Bowes, Brodie and Scrimshaw have all potential to be A players. We will see a lot more of them this year. Then you got Miller (average last season due to ankle reconstruction), Martin, Wright, Ah Chee, Fiorini - all great talent and should be ready to contribute after 3-4 years in a system. People forget that Wright has similar numbers as Hipwood and is similar age. Swallow and Lyons are not bad either and will be 27 in two years. Yes, Suns have only pick 19 but Weller is ready to go player. Yes, I think Suns paid too much but if it helps to get Lynch's signature I can live with that. Then you got academy finally producing talents like Joyce, Spencer, next year Graham. Yes, tough season ahead but not all gloom and doom. AFL is finally fixing up the mess they created, getting right people and putting more money to hire additional medical and support staff. Thanks god for Commonwealth games otherwise Suns would still be in tin sheds. I feel for Lions. CEO Swann's plea to fans to appeal to politicians during this election campaign just illustrate how desperate the situation is.
Stephen
Guest
Fair enough
George
Guest
Ashcroft departure was officially announced by Suns without mentioning specific day. Probably after draft as rumour has it Bulldogs list manager McCartney is a prime candidate.
Cat
Roar Guru
50 is enough. More is better of course but no teams list is completely made up of ‘home state’ players. For example 23 out of 39 players currently on Geelong’s list are non-Victorian. That’s more then half despite Victoria producing the most players. The more teams in a state the more interest there will be in the sport and the more kids will want to play it in the future. It is a generational thing.
Cat
Roar Guru
Foundation list manager Scott Clayton will lead the club into next Friday's draft – but AFL.com.au understands he will finish up soon after.
Stephen
Guest
Steve, good points. Interestingly I went to Metricon Stadium earlier this year for the first time. There was no public parking. I mean zero. I was staggered. I appreciate Melbournians might be a little spoilt with the proximity of the MCG and Etihad and the various entry and exit points for both those stadiums. But Metricon Stadium is around the Hinterland region! Perhaps its a cultural difference - as the locals seemed quite happy getting on and off buses in a very convoluted system. Or perhaps I'm just getting old!
Tricky
Guest
I am a FIFO worker and certainly have not heard of any where near a $600k salary that's a ludicrous statement. I'm not going to tell you my wage but it is far far..... far south of your delirious figure
Stephen
Guest
Cat, Scott Clayton or Marcus Ashcroft has been replaced at the GC Suns?
Slane
Guest
People call Geelong a suburb of Melbourne all the time!
Stephen
Guest
True. Membership provides a regular income stream ($20m+ p/a - Collingwood and WCE). Additionally however, by expanding the membership base - clubs will benefit in other commercial areas. For example, major sponsors are attracted to the database provided by a club with the contact details of tens of thousands loyal and engaged members. Online advertising can have greater financial benefits leveraging off a strong membership base. Merchandise sales are generally higher to the clubs with greater membership. Once a member is captured - clubs are able to find incremental business such as upgraded seating and hospitality packages etc. etc. etc. Members are the life-blood.