If champion coach Craig Bellamy guides the Melbourne Storm to another grand final spot in 2018, his record will be an amazing 50 per cent – that’s eight grand finals in only 16 years of coaching – a stunning figure.
Given that the NRL operate under a salary cap that is supposed to make all teams near equal, and there are 15 other teams, a percentage figure of one from two seems almost impossible. In fact Bellamy’s record from 2006 is even better with seven grand finals from the last 12 seasons, or 58 per cent.
With the Storm winning this year’s grand final over the Cowboys, all the usual parameters were ticked off.
As minor premiers, the Storm passed the initial test of finishing in the top three teams. The last 22 winning teams, either NRL or AFL, have finished in the top three teams under the current finals system. Since 2016 the AFL have added a week off for all teams which now eliminates them as the advantage of having a week off is not so pronounced.
The Storm declined to travel to the UK for the Club Challenge which proved astute as no club has travelled back from the UK and won the premiership this century.
The Storm was defeated by two points in the 2016 grand final by the Sharks and no team has gone back to back since 1992.
The Storm was the top team for conceding the least amount of points in the season. The top two defensive teams have a 67 per cent chance of making the grand final and a 75 per cent chance of winning it.
Since Wayne Bennett’s Broncos ambushed Bellamy’s Storm in 2006, defence has improved markedly in the NRL with the top defensive team going on to become the Premiers 58 per cent of the time. If you include the top three defensive teams, it is 83 per cent.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
If anyone doubts that Craig Bellamy is not the game’s best coach, then even his harshest critic could not argue that he is the game’s greatest defensive coach. It’s the hallmark to his admirable record, and the catalyst why the market expects him to achieve a lifetime 50 per cent grand final record next season.
We all love to see tries scored, but they are not as important as saving them – that’s a fact!
The benchmarks I aim for when assessing teams is their ability to score 22 points, but importantly, they must be able to defend 17 points. Bellamy coached teams can generally defend two opposition tries, or 12 points. (The Sharks were able to kick a penalty goal and win the 2016 grand final 12-14).
I mentioned earlier that the two top defensive teams have a 67 per cent chance of making the grand final; this figure drops by a half to 33 per cent for the top two offensive teams.
The top two defensive teams have a 75 per cent chance of being Premiers and this drops to 58 per cent for the top two scoring teams.
The aim for any coach and his recruitment team should be to field 17 players capable of scoring 22 points or four tries, but it is much more important to not allow the opposition to score more than three tries.
It is defence that wins grand finals.
The Canberra Raiders were the number three team in 2017 for points scored, but only 10th for points conceded and they ultimately finished 10th.
(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
The Panthers were considered a premiership contender, but were rated 16th for the most missed tackles and faded to finish seventh. It is hard to see any improvement given they have just recruited James Maloney who has missed the most tackles in the NRL in the last decade.
When looking for next year’s premiership winner, the best lead is the best defensive teams led by the best coaches.
The Storm will play their Club Challenge match in Melbourne so the travel to the UK factor can be dismissed, but they still have to overcome the hoodoo of back-to-back wins that no team has achieved in 25 years.
Shoosh, don’t tell Craig Bellamy!
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Tom, Robbo, The theme of the story was to show that defence is more important than attack when qualifying for a place into a Grand Final.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Greg The game changes so quickly and I place little to no weight on "old" figures. I agree with you about "fixation" on stats. It is different in the racing world as the stats gurus are almost 100% focused on them, but with the NRL I use them as an indicator and rely 80% to 85% on on video analysis; ideally they both should compliment each other. You are correct that the Storm have always had great defence under Bellamy and he was astute enough to make some subtle speed changes. Obviously Slater coming back to fullback was a blessing which allowed Munster to 6 and Kaufusi to the right edge added speed (and tries), while Addo-Carr to the right wing added 23 tries and topped the NRL for linebbreaks.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Sewing, You have already seen the improvement in Michael Lichaa in the RLWC since he has had the shackles taken off. In 2017 it is hard to beat the massive improvement that Brad Arthur made to Nathan Brown, Mitchell Moses and Will Smith when they moved to Parra
Robbo
Guest
Had an illegal side for a fair part of that period you mention though - some how you didn't mention this- why - that period should be scrubbed from his record for starters.
Greg Ambrose
Guest
Some bloke recently ( Bernie someone ) was found to be running a massive fraud involving finances. Sure the black and white figures at the time proved that he was returning 20% per year to his exceptionally happy clients. It actually happened but it was based on pure nonsense. He could still be mumbling on about his great returns to his clients from his jail cell or he could show a touch of dignity. Including the Storms cheating years in praise of their history is undignified.
Roy
Guest
They only qualified for grand finals because they cheated, what's so hard to understand?
Nat
Roar Guru
How do you come to that conclusion Greg? Hasler is a seasoned coach with GF success at Manly and all but one finals contenders at the Bulldogs. Barrett has potential but Hasler has runs on the board.
terrence
Guest
Scott, why do you keep avoiding the obvious concerns about your poorly written article. As you must be obviously aware, the Storm systematic prolonged cheating of the salary cap between 2006-2010 had a big influence in that Storms performance in that period of time, also denying other teams opportunities to be in the semi-finals or win a premiership, as well as their ability to maintain/attract players they otherwise would not have had. You should have noted the Storm systematic prolonged cheating of the salary cap between 2006-2010 in your article, for just done Bellamy’s record since 2011. I’m suprised The Roar published it. If you can’t handle a little constructive accurate critiquing of your articles, either get them factually correct, or don’t write them. Bagging Not So Super for being correct and pointing it out to you make yourself look a little thin-skinned. Not So Super is not a troll, he’s accurate. You weren’t.
Tom G
Guest
No disputing the coaching credentials however there is equally no disputes over the size and scale of the cheating that went on at Melbourne. It seems that in this time of Storm adulation that these years will be swept away and sanitised which makes a mockery of the sanctions that were imposed
Greg Ambrose
Guest
Although it is clear that defence is one of the most if not the most crucial factor in winning a title , in some years it has proven to not be the case. The knights in 2001 were the 8th best in defence and West tigers in 2005 were the 9th best in defence. It could be argued that the main difference this year with the Storm was their greater attacking capabilities. Possibly it is Des Hasler who has illustrated a fixation with stats ,as opposed to a healthy respect for, can lead to grief. From what I understand he was obsessed with completion rates and had figures to prove that this was the way to win. In reality it is only part of the puzzle which doesn't work out as planned if taken in too much isolation. Ironically 2017 was so good for the Storm based on a greater emphasis on attack than 2016 it seems to me.
Greg
Guest
GI signed his first professional contract with the Canberra Raiders
Nat
Roar Guru
I wonder if that is a fair representation of Bellamy's skills for Sam. All the Bulldogs were coached away from ability this year. We know what Same can do so I would not call it a transformation as such. Do you say the same for Mary if Graham is 2018 Dally M prop?
Nat
Roar Guru
Agree, more for the fact we are comparing a 10yr coach to a 30yr coach. If Bellamy can maintain such a high success rate for 20 more years.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Bellamy is a great coach no doubt, but I think this article would have been more interesting (and more accurate) excluding the cap rorting years. A compelling argument could be made for Bellamy’s credentials. 10 years in charge. Two premierships. Two(?) minor premierships, three GF appearances, semi finals pretty much every season and a WCC is very impressive. 06-10 shouldn’t be considered as part of the statistical analysis. Sure, comment on playing style and structure or whatever but you can’t count the achievements from those years. Four completed seasons rorting, four GF appearances, two premierships, two minor premierships. Anyone that says the rorting didn’t make s difference (and a significant difference at that) is kidding themselves.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Greg, As per my reply to Roy..... The figures pertaining to defence is massive and there is a direct link to all teams qualifying and just making the Grand Final. Some people like to get off point.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Roy, The the umpteenth time, my article was about the importance of defence and why the Storm have qualified into so many Grand Finals. I did not write about Grand Final wins.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Hi Chook, I welcome objective criticism and varied opinions, and that is what the Roar should be about, but when someone just trolls and only ever says tunneled negatives things which are often without foundation, they do not belong and i certainly do not welcome them. It is the editors call and i am sure they are conscious of this troll and they will act accordingly.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Greg Inglis, Ryan Hoffman, Adam Blair, Aiden Tolman, Brett White, Brett Finch...I'd say that sounds like decimation.
not so super
Guest
ok Sleiman, let me explain it for you. the author claims he is so great, i claim he has only won legitimate premierships. that is evidence he isnt so great. hope that clears it up for you
not so super
Guest
you were all telling us that the no vote would win