The 2018 World Cup draw is approaching, with proceedings set to begin in the early hours of Saturday morning. In preparation for the event, here’s a quick rundown on how the draw works and what some of the best and worst case scenarios for the Socceroos will be.
The 32 teams have been divided into four pots of eight teams each. The pots are also sorted by world ranking, and the draw will take place with the caveat that no continent except for Europe can have two teams in the same group.
Australia is in Pot 4, meaning that they cannot play against opponents from that group.
The 2014 World Cup saw the Socceroos get the short end of the stick when they were pitted against Spain, the Netherlands and Chile.
Let’s go through the pots one by one and pick out teams that fans want to see, as well as the ones we’re praying to avoid.
Pot 1
This one is full of the strongest teams in the world… except for Russia. Due to their status as hosts, they are automatically placed into the first pot, but actually have the lowest ranking out of all the teams in the tournament. Everyone, not just the Socceroos, will want to play them.
In an ideal world, Australia will want to avoid just about every other team from the first group. But if I had to pick the most dangerous threats, those would be defending champions Germany, along with Neymar and his Brazilian squad. Both teams boast incredible amounts of talent and are in excellent form.
Australia has a very poor track record against Brazil, with eight meetings resulting in one win, six losses and one draw.
(Wiki Commons)
Pot 2
This is another tricky group with a lot of quality teams. The easiest target might be Switzerland, who struggled in qualification against Northern Ireland. They should offer the best chance for Australia to snatch a win.
As for teams to avoid, this one is pretty obvious: the 2010 champions Spain. They are only in Pot 2 due to Russia’s automatic placement in Pot 1. The Spaniards have so many quality players on their squad that it’s surprising to see them only ranked eighth in the world.
Croatia, led by Real Madrid’s Luka Modric, is another quality team that will leave Socceroos fans feeling uneasy if they are drawn in the same group.
Pot 3
For starters, Iran cannot be placed into Australia’s group as they are from the same confederation.
Tunisia stands out here as a weaker team. Rennes midfielder Wahbi Khazri is a relatively well-known name, but the side’s collection of talent pales in comparison to some of the other nations in the group.
Egypt, Senegal and Denmark are squads that look very dangerous. All three have well-known stars like Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Christian Eriksen that play in some of the world’s top leagues, but Denmark appears to be the strongest among all the teams.
Pot 4
This is Australia’s group, so they won’t face off against other teams from here.
Summary
So, the bad news first. What would be some of the worst draws for the Socceroos? Something like Germany, Spain and Egypt would be a death sentence. Likewise, a group consisting of Brazil, Spain and Denmark would offer little to no hope of advancing.
Really, Australia will just be hoping to miss out on Spain.
On the other hand, I’d like to wake up on Saturday and see something like Russia, Switzerland (or Peru) and Tunisia.
A recent draw rehearsal saw Australia get placed into a group with Russia, Switzerland and Egypt, which would have been close to a dream scenario. Now it remains to be seen if that luck continues, or if it was all used up during the mock draw.
jamesb
Guest
Group A ?? Russia ?? Saudi Arabia ?? Egypt ?? Uruguay Group B ?? Portugal ?? Spain ?? Morocco ?? Iran Group C ?? France ?? Australia ?? Peru ?? Denmark Group D ?? Argentine ?? Iceland ?? Croatia ?? Nigeria Group E ?? Brazil ?? Switzerland ?? Costa Rica ?? Serbia Group F ?? Germany ?? Mexico ?? Sweden ?? South Korea Group G ?? Belgium ?? England ?? Tunisia ?? Panama Group H ?? Poland ?? Senegal ?? Colombia ?? Japan Pretty happy with Australia's group. Interestingly, Peru, Denmark and us had to go through playoffs to qualify. Whilst France are the favourites, they do have a history of imploding from time to time. Knocked out in the group stages in 2002 and 2010. It's not the group of death.
me too
Guest
not this year - no complaining about our group. very happy with it.
Geoff
Guest
It doesn’t matter who we get, the local soccer commentators will say we are in the pool of death...
Gurudoright
Guest
Sure, in rugby league, rugby union, cricket and netball. Australia vs England in football has happen only once in the last 14 year. They yet to play a competitive game against each.
Gavin R
Guest
Could be dramatically lower but could also be higher than if they'd played qualifiers and done poorly; or not qualified at all. Of course they're the weakest team in pot 1 regardless of home advantage. Everyone is hoping to get Russia.
Gavin R
Guest
You've got to get through the group stage first. And there's always upsets and the top ranked side doesn't always finish first. You could easily finish first and play the top ranked side in round of 16. Glad we are there, excited to see what we can do against the undoubted quality of every team. If we progress anything can happen from there.
DH
Guest
I think I'd rather have 3 games against good teams than have 3 games against average teams just for the chance of having one match to be flogged by somebody like Germany. If we want to get to the quarters, the group who we'd be paired up with in the second round is more important, or have I just confused myself with a circular argument? Whoever we play, we should be looking forward to it, not crossing our fingers that it's not too difficult. If I see another Germany v Australia Durban Debacle I dont' know what I'll do. Another month-long bender probably isn't doable now. I didn't have kids back then!
punter
Guest
Great Nem, shows a wide variety of people at the world cup.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
So would England I'm sure. :)
Andreas
Guest
Bummer about the 3rd place not going through. I might have been wrong about early games and Germany, ah well, we will have to start a new trend of them being poor in early games.
Robin
Guest
Good article Johann. The draw is live on SBS at 0200 Saturday morning
Brian
Guest
Best 3rd place does not qualify. Germans first games at World Cups let see 2014 Portugal 4-0 2010 Australia 4-0 2006 Costa Rica 4-2 2002 Saudi Arabia 8-0 1998 USA 2-0 1994 Bolivia 1-0 1990 Yugoslavia 4-1 so 7 straight wins and they've scored 20 goals in the last 4 games.
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
Germany have a fantastic record when playing their first match in the group stage (they gave Portgual a nice touch up in their opening match at the last world cup). It's generally the second match where they can be prone to have a stumble. Worst case scenario for the Socceroos would be a repeat on the 2010 World Cup (Germany in opening match).
Nemesis
Guest
Just happy to be there. See you in Russia - prominent player from each team, with welcome message in the language of a competitor. Trent Sainsbury welcomes Peru. Christian Eriksen welcome Australia. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhexfxLPgTE
me too
Guest
it's in russia so i would much rather be facing north, central and south american teams and african teams - with the possible exception of brasil and argentina. belgium, costa rica and peru would be my fancy.
jamesb
Guest
"I say bring on the big guns – how much sweeter is a result against Germany (who often start slow at tournaments)" They didn't start slow in South Africa 2010.
jamesb
Guest
Definitely. We very rarely see an Australia v England sporting contest these days....
Andreas
Guest
There is another way of looking at it all. Let’s face facts – unless Australia suddenly pulls a Christian Ronaldo out of their back pocket prior to the World Cup, Australia are not going to do a Denmark or a Greece and win the World Cup. So, do we want to go as far as possible? Or, play some of the best teams in the World at the World Cup and maybe go into the last group game with a shot at Round 2 (seeing as I presume the best 3rd placed teams qualify as well then just 1 win might be enough). So, I say bring on the big guns – how much sweeter is a result against Germany (who often start slow at tournaments) or Brazil than one against Belgium. And if Australia does not beat Germany at least we got to see one of the biggest teams in the world play in a game we really cared about.
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
Agreed - would love to see Australia vs England at the World Cup
Brian
Guest
Agree with most of that Pot 1 - we should avoid Brazil and Germany and I would add France and Belgium would both account for us easily as well. Unlike most I would prefer Poland or Portugal to Russia. Portugal at the Euros drew all their 3 group games against Iceland, Austria and Hungary. They have one of the best players to ever play the game but we could definitely challenge them. Pot 2 - Spain is of course horrendous cause your tournament is done. Peru looked average against the Kiwis so we would definitely be a chance. Peru, Switzerland or England would be good but anyone but Spain. Pot 3 - Tunisia and Costa Rica are ideal here. Finally there is the issue of the order of games. We want to avoid the 2010 scenario where we got Germany first up, then Serbia upset Germany and so we never had a chance. If Game 1 is against Tunisia or Costa Rica you are in the tournament, especially as the Pot 3 team will probably see the game against us as must win.