Ah, the NRL pre season. It’s that wonderful time of year when every league fan dreams of an NRL premiership in early October. Sadly, for many of us those dreams are cruelly smashed before we get to the end of March.
Not every team can win, but we hope our teams can at least achieve what we would consider a pass mark for the season. It’s that magical mark where marquee players and coaches are safe and where mad Monday celebrations can go ahead without much scrutiny from the media.
So what is a pass mark for your club?
Working from the top down, a pass mark for the North Queensland Cowboys and the Sydney Roosters is simply a premiership. North Queensland enjoyed a fairytale run through the semi-finals last year only to lose to the Melbourne Storm at the last hurdle. With Jordan McLean joining the club and Johnathan Thurston back from injury, expectations are rightfully high in Townsville.
Likewise the Sydney Roosters will expect to win the premiership. After finishing second in the regular 2017 season the addition of Cooper Cronk and James Tedesco arguably gives the Roosters the best roster on paper in the competition. However, the loss of Kane Evans and Aidan Guerra will test their forward depth.
(Matt King/Getty Images)
For Melbourne Storm and the Parramatta Eels only a top-two spot will be considered a pass. The loss of Cooper Cronk will be felt at the Storm but we saw enough of Brodie Croft last season to know that he is a quality half. With Cameron Smith, Billy Slater and Cameron Munster in your team, the Storm will be playing deep into September again.
The Eels’ late-season surge last year had them finish only one win behind the second-placed Roosters, and they would be shooting for a top-two spot this year. The loss of Semi Radradra is immense – though the Eels do have some quality backs – while the signing of Jarryd Hayne with something to prove could be significant. Kane Evans also adds to their forward pack.
(Matt King/Getty Images)
For the Brisbane Broncos, Penrith Panthers and Cronulla Sharks a top-four finish would be considered a pass, so you can see that not all clubs will hit the pass mark this year.
The Broncos have lost or released some key players this year and have picked up Jack Bird from the Sharks. The Broncos should again be towards the top of the pile, but they are not as strong as some of the other clubs. Nevertheless, the Brisbane fans will want results and Wayne Bennett will be under pressure. I’d like Bennett coaching the Newtown Jets, if only for the Elton John jokes, but that’s not likely to happen.
The Panthers have been about to cut loose for the past few years but have never quite delivered. The addition of James Maloney partnering with Nathan Cleary this year gives the Panthers some real stability in the halves, which could be just what they need with their exciting outside backs.
The Sharks have lost James Maloney and Jack Bird and picked up Matt Moylan and Josh Dugan. All are quality. Whether Cronulla have won or lost on these trades won’t be known until well into the season. The improvement of Valentine Holmes at fullback is also critical. If Holmes does this, Sharks fans can stop praying for the return of Ben Barba.
(Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
The Canberra Raiders, South Sydney Rabbitohs, Canterbury Bulldogs, Manly Sea Eagles and St George Illawarra Dragons should all feel that making the top eight is a pass mark for the year.
After falling one game short of the grand final in 2016 the Raiders were inconsistent last year, eventually finishing tenth. Other than perhaps Charlie Gubb, their recruitment hasn’t been outstanding. However, you could argue that Canberra underachieved in 2017 and will be looking to set the record straight this year.
For the Rabbits, 12th place last year was disappointing. Their key addition is Dane Gagai, although much will depend on the fitness of Greg Inglis and Adam Reynolds, who have both been suspect in recent seasons. Their forward pack was also off the pace in 2017.
It is an important year for the Bulldogs. A poor 2017 season saw the departure of Des Hasler and club stalwarts James Graham, Sam Kasiano and Josh Reynolds. On the plus side were the major signings of Kieran Foran and Aaron Woods. After this major clean out only a top-eight finish will be acceptable.
The Sea Eagles finished a surprising sixth last year under Trent Barrett and will be expecting to do so again in 2018. The signing of Joel Thompson from the Dragons will provide additional starch to their pack, but the loss of Blake Green, with a lack of other experienced halves in the club, may prove significant.
If any club is playing to right the wrongs of last year, it is the Dragons. Their fans are still trying to deal with the disappointment of missing the eight Losing Josh Dugan, Joel Thompson and Russell Packer will be felt. However, the key signings of Ben Hunt and James Graham should help them take part in the semi-finals.
(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
And so to the rest, where anything less than top 12 will be a failure.
There is no doubt the Newcastle Knights have recruited well. They won’t take the spoon this year. Equally, expecting them to jump from last to top eight is probably too much. Key signings are Mitchell Pearce, Kalyn Ponga and a range of forwards. I expect them to win a lot more games, but not enough to be playing in September.
The Wests Tigers have now had a full preseason under Ivan Cleary and will also expect to improve their position this year. They have recruited well, but the loss of James Tedesco and Aaron Woods makes it difficult for them to play semi-finals.
The Gold Coast Titans finished down the ladder in 2017, and unfortunately their recruitment for 2018 is not strong enough to change that. However, they challenged and beat some of the top teams in 2017, so more consistency this year would bring a higher ladder finish.
And, finally, the New Zealand Warriors. The Warriors have had a major overhaul, with a number of high-profile departures and signings, such as Tohu Harris, Blake Green, Gerald Beale and Adam Blair. They should finish top 12 and probably higher. Whether they do or not remains to be seen.
So there’s my take of what a pass mark looks for your club in 2018. As always, there will be a divergence of views, so please agree or disagree in the comments.
Peter Phelps
Guest
Not sure about Rabbits in top 4 and I very much doubt that the Broncs will get to the big one. Top 8 for sure but that no 7 position is a worry. Also the Storm have definitely got the measure of them and that is a hoo doo they have to break before going anywhere. I have Canberra as an outside bet for the spoon.
the Shafe
Guest
but having made the 8 they went all the way. No fluke
Jay C
Roar Guru
What's up snitches. I is back. Broncos to win it all this year. this list is good. Ish. Broncos and Storm can be added to the top tier. Sharks out of the 8. Rabbits tops 4. Raiders Suck.
Peter Phelps
Guest
Both of them can't play the Storm in the big one ! I think the Roosters will get there and the Cows won't Storm v Rooster GF with the storm going back to back.
Doug Graves
Guest
"The Wests Tigers have now had a full preseason under Ivan Cleary and will also expect to improve their position this year. They have recruited well, but the loss of James Tedesco and Aaron Woods makes it difficult for them to play semi-finals." Swing and a miss. The Tigers never made the finals when they had both of those players in the team. So I think it's a bit rich to suggest they can't make it without them. I'll even predict the Tigers will be BETTER without those two show ponies.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Dave, Not having to travel to the UK for the Club Challenge is a major boost for the Storm as no team has traveled to the UK and came back and won the P'ship. There has been a succession plan in place for Cronk with the aim not to lose momentum and the young guys available will do a great job. Also, Brandon Smith is a class 9 which offers flexibility for Cam Smith to run the team at any given time. The depth in the Storm 2018 list of 30 is stronger than last year.
BA Sports
Guest
I think he has too much size and strength to play 9. I guess I might just think the ceiling is higher for May than others. I see him moving to 13 if not 6 (lets face it Maloney isn't known for staying in one place too long). Merrin has a year to go on his current deal and if he stays, he may become a prop - Penrith do like their props to be able to pop a pass.
Albo
Guest
The trouble is that May will rarely be next to Cleary. Maloney will be the 6. May will likely be a bench player where he can play most positions. Unfortunately for him, he is a good utility player. And I can see him spending most of his limited game time as Wallace's replacement at 9.
Roostermark
Guest
They still have 700k left to spend by all reports...Good cap management I would say and not paying overs for players. Also look up the list of players they have let go it's quite a long list.
Nat
Roar Guru
Fair enough. I'd love a 10 but take a 9.8 half everyday. Personally I don't like making player comparisons, like at Moylan - the next Lockyer. It minimises the effort the very best put in and undue pressure on the young fella. Example, Living in Towsville when the Broncos came to town I used to see Lockyer jogging the streets to acclimatize himself to the conditions. Cronk, Johns and Thurston are known for doing extras hours after training was done. Croft is very good and I've had the chance to see him playing Q Cup a few times now (live and TV) and he is a natural heads up half. As above, he will find his place reasonably quickly within the Storm system. Cronk came to the Storm system as a lock. He trained himself to be a half and it's that dedication to every small aspect of his game that makes me think he will leave a hole at Storm and succeed at the Roosters. The Storm will still be up there but this year it will be Smith and Billy leading Croft and Munster as opposed to working with them. 6 & 7 are very important positions and rarely have the storm been with a young halves combo.
tony
Guest
The cowboys 2017 grand final was a fluke , they own the Bulldogsbig time for making the grand final remember if the bulldogs didnt beat the dragqueens in the last game of 0f 2017 season the cows would nt ,of made the grand final
tony
Guest
the cowboys
BA Sports
Guest
Albo/Souvalis: You are right, there is no way the plan was to punt Moylan and Cartwright so quickly. But Gould is all about culture, and he doesn't tolerate people who disturb it. He didn't like Jennings and moved him on as he didn't want him influencing the younger players. Right or wrong, he has shown his cards in the past and it appears to me, this is pretty consistent with that approach. - Maybe the coach is n't a good influence on the culture also? Will be interesting to keep an eye on it. I hate players getting overrated coming out of NYC but Egan is Danny Buderus 2.0 - and Danny himself thinks Egan is the goods. No club can afford to carry three first grade hookers. Panthers have Wallace (for the now), Katoa (for the interim and as the back up) and Egan (for the future and capable of playing now). Seems a reasonable set up to me. May is one of those players who will be a much better player when he has Cleary next to him. The two appear to have a connection having played a stack of juniors together. They just seem to compliment each other really well.
the Shafe
Guest
That's probably it, though Broncos are a little vulnerable and Penrith seem to have some problems. Knights could sneak into the 8 if the fire is in the belly and they gel quickly.
the Shafe
Guest
I don't think it'll be that close Nat. Basically before the first ball is kicked in anger there are about 6 locks for the top 8, 6 out and only 4 to fight for the last two spots. Those last spots might be tight.
R N
Roar Rookie
No one flukes a GF in the NRL! A team can have a run of good fortune that through hard work and talent they take advantage of, but to call it a fluke is insulting to... hang on... why am I replying to a post that has the statement, “Mat Scott won’t make much of a difference “. I apologise to myself for wasting my time!
Knight Vision
Guest
"The roosters and cowboys should play in the grand final with the squads they have (and seriously HOW are the rooster under the salary cap)." short answer - they cant be. they just havent been caught .
Jason Hosken
Roar Guru
Gday Max. I clearly recall your upbeat wrap after last season’s trial and your bold prediction of Manly’s season. I’d like to catch up but once again it clashes with my cricket season. I’ll be sweating on your observations that’s for sure!!
souvalis
Guest
Not doubting Egan or over estimating Rein..but doubt the plan would have been to dump 3 proven first graders and stifle the depth to gamble on a 19 year old with zero NRL experience fulfilling his potential and staying injury free..particularly when he hasn’t even made the the ‘18 squad Wallace misses a huge chunk of the season as he did last season and the odds are he will,the only other hooker in the current squad is Katoa...the long term solution must still be a long way off..
Peter Phelps
Guest
If my team only wins one game in 2018 they will have had a terrible season and big questions would have to be asked, and certain heads would have to roll.