All filler no killer: Four top teams just making up the numbers in 2018

Ever wondered what it feels like to support Everton in the English Premier League? To watch your team try hard, play well, but with no real prospect of winning anything? Well, for the fans of four NRL teams, you’re about to find out.

Part 2 of this season preview series takes a look at four top NRL sides that are just making up the numbers.

» Part 1: Four NRL coaches feeling the heat in 2018

Parramatta Eels

Key additions: Kane Evans, Jarryd Hayne
Key subtractions: Semi Radradra, Isaac De Gois, Jeff Robson

Reflections on 2017
Coming off an absolute Kardashian of a campaign in 2016, Parramatta bounced back spectacularly last year. Sparked by the mid-season transfer of Mitchell Moses, the Eels were electrifying down the stretch and enjoyed their strongest season since the halcyon heydays of Hindmarsh and Hayne.

Just how big an impact did Moses make? Before the former Tiger made the move along the M4, Parramatta had won five out of ten and were sitting ninth on the ladder. After the introduction of Moses, the Eels won 11 of their final 14 games and were considered legitimate contenders.

But Moses wasn’t the only standout. Semi Radradra remained harder to bring down than Sydney house prices, Corey Norman continued his ascension into superstardom, and Nathan Brown proved that talent’s no match for hard work and dedication. In fact, had it not been for a serious injury to fullback Clinton Gutherson, Parramatta may have challenged Melbourne for the JJ Giltinan Shield.

Outlook for 2018
The Eels have a roster capable of qualifying for the finals in 2018. They boast one of the strongest halves pairings in the competition, game breakers along the backline, and a coach in Brad Arthur who will keep this squad focused and hungry. But they can’t improve on their fourth-placed finish from last season.

The loss of Radradra will be massive. While the Eels are downplaying the impact of his defection, the former Kangaroo was the Parramatta attack at times last year. Semi’s 22 tries in 2017 accounted for 32 per cent of all Parramatta four-pointers, and his 27 line breaks made up 28 per cent of the team’s total. That kind of production is near impossible to replace or replicate, and expecting Jarryd Hayne to do so would be unfair.

Speaking of Hayne, I wasn’t a fan of Parramatta’s decision to bring him back into the fold. Financially, the deal made sense, but much like Barnaby Joyce rocking up to a Paddington house party, Hayne’s the sort of cultural time bomb the Eels could do without. Hayne claims that his headline-hogging days are behind him, but he remains a magnet for negative publicity. I fear his distraction will eclipse his production.

(Photo: Martin Seras Lima)

The other big area for concern is the number nine jersey. With no offence to Cameron King or Kaysa Pritchard, they’re only borderline first-graders. The pair have ability and potential, but both are inexperienced, uncreative and injury prone. Parramatta will be the weakest side in the competition at one of the game’s most important positions.

Predicted finish: seventh

Brisbane Broncos

Key additions: Jack Bird
Key subtractions: Ben Hunt, Benji Marshall, Tautau Moga, Jai Arrow, Herman Ese’ese , Adam Blair

Reflections on 2017
If you take Brisbane’s 2017 season at face value, it looks pretty good. The Broncos finished third on the premiership ladder. They had the competition’s second-best attack (632 points at 26.3ppg) and seventh-best defence (493 points at 20.5ppg). And they made it one game shy of the grand final, getting towelled up by the eventual Premiers. Sounds pretty decent right?

For most clubs, this would be viewed as a successful season. But for the Brisbane Broncos, it was just another year without silverware. And that just isn’t good enough. For Brisbane fans, Premierships are like water – they’re essential to survival. So if you think the extreme drought gripping Cape Town is scary, it’s nothing compared to the dry spell that’s descended on Titletown.

But last year wasn’t all bad for the Broncos. Far from it. Talented youngsters like Jai Arrow, Tautau Moga and Herman Ese’ese began to fulfil their considerable potential, Adam Blair discovered leadership skills he never knew he had, and Ben Hunt was a revelation at dummy half. Even Benji Marshall showed signs of life! I really look forward to watching the contributions these blokes make to the Broncos in 2018.

Outlook for 2018
As they do every season, the Broncos will again field a strong line-up in 2018. Brisbane’s spine will have a Maroon tinge to it, their pack will boast a couple of world-class back-rowers, and new signing Jack Bird will partner James Roberts to form the most dynamic and versatile centre pairing in the competition.

But what else is new? With unmatched off-field resources, an enormous junior catchment and a coach with the pulling power of a BT-50, Brisbane is expected to excel. And they will. For the fourth consecutive season since Wayne returned to Bris Vegas, the super coach will lead his Broncos back to the finals. However, his roster doesn’t have the depth or quality to win the Premiership.

Brisbane’s attack is overly reliant on moments of Anthony Milford magic. The mercurial playmaker can turn a match in the blink of an eye, but much like Jarryd Hayne or Greg Inglis, he’s also prone to drifting in and out of games. Milford will never be your prototypical Cronk or Thurston-like halfback who accumulates multiple touches per set, so he needs that steadying presence at halfback in order to be effective.

(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)

In the wake of Ben Hunt’s scheduled departure, Bennett had all the time in the world to plan for his replacement. And with an unprecedented pool of playmaking talent hitting the open market, there was never a better chance to solidify the game’s most important position. But instead of signing Pearce or Cronk, Maloney or Moylan, Green, Reynolds or even Robson, he hitched his wagon to an unlikely steed – Kodi Nikorima.

There are questions around the depth of Brisbane’s forward pack, the injury cloud hovering over Darius Boyd, and whether Bennett has lost his edge. But those are all smoke screens and molehills. The real question is Nikorima. He’s good enough to help Brisbane qualify for the finals, but is he good enough to take them all the way?

Predicted finish: fifth

St George Illawarra Dragons

Key additions: Ben Hunt, James Graham
Key subtractions: Josh Dugan, Russell Packer, Will Matthews, Taane Milne, Josh McCrone

Reflections on 2017
It’s difficult to know what to make of St George Illawarra’s 2017 season. The bipolar Dragons rode a euphoric high to start the year, winning six of their first seven games and sitting atop the ladder. But then came a crash so spectacular that Salim Mehajer couldn’t have orchestrated it better himself. From Round 8 onwards, the Red V won only six of their remaining 17 games and finished the season in ninth position.

While St George Illawarra fans are still seething about their club’s epic collapse, there were plenty of positives to take from another failed campaign. Thanks in large part to a bumper season from Gareth Widdop, the Dragons attack made dramatic strides.

After spending several seasons struggling to post points, Paul McGregor’s men showcased a less structured and more productive offence. The new approach yielded an incredible eight more points per game compared to the previous season.

(AAP Image/Action Photographics, Robb Cox)

Defensively, St George Illawarra remained one of the competition’s stingiest units (18.8ppg – third in NRL). Led by the likes of Tyson Frizell, Jack De Belin and Cameron McInnes, the Dragons missed the fewest tackles of any team (541 – 22.5 per game) while also giving away the fewest penalties (130 – 5.4 per game).

But ultimately, last season will go down as a missed opportunity. The Dragons played well enough to qualify for the finals but losing five games by six or fewer points will hang like a noose around Paul McGregor’s neck.

Outlook for 2018
I’m more optimistic than most about St George Illawarra’s prospects this season. The addition of Ben Hunt alongside Widdop in the halves, and the emergence of Matt Dufty at fullback, can only mean good things for their point-scoring potential. Josh Dugan’s stout defence will be missed, but there’s something about Dufty’s whippet-like frame and electric footwork that gets my rugby league juices flowing.

While the loss of Russell Packer will sting, James Graham is a more than suitable replacement. The Englishman may be past his prime, but he brings with him a wealth of experience, an outstanding work ethic and the sort of natural leadership that you simply can’t teach. His presence both on and off the field will be invaluable to the ongoing development of the Dragons pack.

But I’m still not sold on Paul McGregor. Now entering his fourth full season as coach of the Red V, the former Steeler boasts a Kearney-like 47 per cent win percentage and a single one-and-done finals appearance. For a high profile club like the Dragons and with the roster he’s had at his disposal, that’s not acceptable.

St George Illawarra have too strong a squad and too favourable a draw (they play the Knights, Tigers and Warriors twice) to miss the finals. But once they get there, they’ll be less damaging than a Super Soaker in a firestorm. And with the club set to usher in a new chief executive at the end of the year, they’ll likely be looking for a new coach as well.

Predicted finish: eighth

Manly Sea Eagles

Key additions: Lachlan Croker, Joel Thompson
Key subtractions: Brenton Lawrence, Blake Green

Reflections on 2017
Watching Manly is a little like sitting through a Married at First Sight commitment ceremony – you tune in with extremely low expectations hoping to see a bunch of unlikeable lads get crushed. Because hey, it’s Manly. Only unlike the cultural apocalypse that is MAFS, the surprise packet Sea Eagles were a source of genuine entertainment in 2017.

What was most shocking about Manly’s resurgence wasn’t their classy attack (23.4ppg – third in NRL) or their sixth-placed finish on the Premiership ladder. No, what struck me the most was the dramatic improvement shown by almost every individual player on their roster.

Daly Cherry-Evans and Dylan Walker both returned to career-best form while the Trbojevic brothers announced themselves as genuine superstars. At the same time, unknown toilers such as Lloyd Perrett, Frank Winterstein and Brian Kelly established themselves as legitimate first-graders, Akuila Uate and Curtis Sironen were rescued from the rugby league wilderness, and big Marty Taupau finally spent more time on the field than in front of the judiciary.

And all this with over $1 million worth of salary cap space unavailable through injury/retirement. Full credit to Trent Barrett and his staff for an outstanding season.

(AAP Image/Paul Miller)

Outlook for 2018
I was excited to see what Manly had planned during the off-season. With a huge injection of salary cap space, an ascending coach in Trent Barrett, and a spine my chiropractor would be proud of, I figured Brookvale would be a desirable destination for players looking to relocate.

But in the blink of an eye, everything changed. Reports surfaced of potential salary cap shenanigans, club legend Bob Fulton abruptly retired, and all of a sudden Manly were off-limits to potential free agents. With only a few weeks until the start of the season, Daly Cherry-Evans doesn’t have a recognised halves partner.

So where does that leave Manly?

The 2018 Sea Eagles are a lot like the 2017 Canberra Raiders, where a dramatic overachievement the previous season burdens the team with unrealistic expectations. But unlike the Raiders, Manly have a roster that’s equipped to handle the pressure. In Cherry-Evans and the Trbojevics, the Sea Eagles have a trio of talent that’s a step above anything the Raiders had on their roster.

The biggest problem facing Manly is their depth. Injuries at key positions will cripple any team in the NRL, but nowhere is this more apparent than at Brookvale. If Cherry-Evans can stay healthy, Manly make the finals. If he misses significant time, then they can start planning for 2019.

Predicted finish: sixth

Look out next Monday for Part 3 of my season preview series, where we’ll check in on how the honeymoon period is progressing for four coaches and their new teams.