Week one of our preview series, covering 18th to 15th, had one common theme among Roar commenters – where is North Melbourne?
Week two, where we predicted 14th to 11th, followed a similar refrain, except this time it was Collingwood that the punters were bewildered about.
Fans of St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs, in particular, were somewhat miffed and disgusted that their teams could be rated below the Pies. My sanity, if not my parentage, was questioned. Some thought I was suffering from a Richmond-induced premiership hangover.
Let’s see if there’s a case to be made for Collingwood to be knocking on the door of the eight this year.
B: Jeremy Howe, Lynden Dunn, Brayden Maynard
HB: Travis Varcoe, Darcy Moore, Jack Crisp
C: Steele Sidebottom, Scott Pendlebury, Daniel Wells
HF: Will Hoskin-Elliott, Ben Reid, Jordan De Goey
F: Jamie Elliott, Mason Cox, Alex Fasolo,
Foll: Brodie Grundy, Adam Treloar, Taylor Adams
Int: Tyson Goldsack, Tom Phillips, Tom Langdon, Matt Scharenberg
Em: Levi Greenwood, Jarryd Blair, Tim Broomhead
Collingwood being Collingwood, they have a lot of high profile players, and there’s plenty of individual talent among them. But they always seem to be less than the sum of their parts.
The last two premiers, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs, have been the living embodiment of a team. If they didn’t play above themselves, they at least rose above what outsiders could see. All the Pies do under Nathan Buckley is sink below.
Part of Collingwood’s problem in recent years has been constant injuries. But we’ve known forever that Ben Reid can never play a full season. We’ve known for a long time that Alex Fasolo and Jamie Elliott have problems they can’t shake.
Part of compiling a list is to ensure durability and continuity – the fragile bodies of draftees can’t always be anticipated, but the issues of Daniel Wells when he joined the Pies as a free agent were all too predictable. They don’t get to complain about injuries when bringing a player with his history in.
As a starting 18, Collingwood has the best collection of individual players, Mason Cox aside, of all teams we’ve covered so far.
Speaking of Mason Cox, the forward line is going to be the Pies’ biggest problem. Much has been made of Darcy Moore being moved to centre half-back, which suggests that Buckley believes Cox can be the answer as a tall full-forward and back-up ruckman.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Ben Reid has been a swingman for several years now, and can certainly pop up as a forward from time to time, but he struggles to influence games consistently. Ultimately, he hasn’t had the career that was once promised.
Should Jamie Elliott play as a small full-forward, to allow an extra pressure player up forward? Alex Fasolo could also play this role. They are the two best marking forwards at the Pies, unusually so given they both come in small packages. Collingwood look a better side when they are both in the team, which the stats back up.
Jordan de Goey continues to make great strides on the field, just as he loses ground off it. The Pies need all the class they can get on the park, and he has some. Forget the naysayers and do-gooders, and get him in the team for Round 1.
Will Hoskin-Elliott added immediate value last year after crossing from GWS, with the biggest surprise being that his body stood up for every game. He’s capable of more though, and needs to go from nice player to a damaging one.
Goals are still going to be a problem, and hopefully the coaching staff have been putting a priority on forward-line dynamic over pre-season. We can expect to see a lot of moving parts through there, but the focus must be on trapping the ball in their half, and working together to generate the shots.
The midfield is the strength of this team, and they should be able to generate enough forward entries to keep the Pies above the lower third of the ladder.
Scott Pendlebury is still all class, Adam Treloar is easily mocked for his kicking but can explode from stoppages like few others, Steele Sidebottom is a model of reliability covering territory, Taylor Adams is the grunt machine.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
These are very good footballers, prolific and complementary as a quartet, underrated as a group, and a key reason why Collingwood never drop as far as their detractors suggest they should.
Add in Brodie Grundy, an ever-consistent ruckman and a genuine around-the-ground ball-winner, and there is plenty there to build around.
Daniel Wells is the cherry on top, but can’t be relied upon. Travis Varcoe and Jack Crisp were moved back at various stages in 2017, and should start this season behind the ball, but can run through the middle when required.
Jeremy Howe could have easily been an All Australian last year, and has found a new lease of life in his time at the Magpies. Fellow ex-Dee Lynden Dunn is a good full-back, and loves to clear the ball out of the area as long and strong as he can.
Darcy Moore could be the latest in a long line of VFL/AFL players to go from good forward to great backman, he and Howe will prove a hard to pass athletic duo. Add in Tom Langdon and Matt Scharenberg, who also both excel at intercepting, and the Pies have the potential there to create a lot of drive from the back half after forcing turnovers. Varcoe, Crisp and Brayden Maynard will help run it out.
Of course, all of this depends on Collingwood moving the ball more directly than we have seen in recent seasons.
Collingwood under Nathan Buckley have fallen victim to painfully conservative ball movement, often caused by indecision of the ball carrier. A player frightened to make a mistake will always slow down, and find a short safe option – usually sideways or behind him because opponents running defensively have already started to close off options up the field. He makes the ball someone else’s problem, and his efficiency stats look great.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
The Pies have the fifth oldest list and are the third most experienced playing group for games played. It is the list profile of a club right in the premiership window, yet they haven’t played finals since 2013 and haven’t finished higher than 11th in the four years hence.
Buckley had his contract extended for two years last season, albeit against most people’s expectations and, indeed, common sense. There was no real action from a list change perspective over the off-season – this is a settled playing group. They play Brisbane, Carlton and Fremantle twice.
Collingwood were the 2010 premiers and played off in the grand final in 2011. The future was theirs, but they’ve done nothing but fall down the ladder since. Everything is in their favour to start the climb back up now. If not, irrelevance awaits.
Prediction – 10th
Cam Rose’s AFL ladder prediction
10th: Collingwood Magpies
11th: Western Bulldogs
12th: St Kilda Saints
13th: West Coast Eagles
14th: North Melbourne Kangaroos
15th: Fremantle Dockers
16th: Brisbane Lions
17th: Carlton Blues
18th: Gold Coast Suns
Cisco Kid
Guest
Its funny you handbagger fans throwing insults at us, you blokes have struggled against us as of late and only fell over the line in the last bout. Selwood will be praying that Levi doesn't towell him up again.
Chet
Guest
More than just a JLT game Peter - the Pies have had no kicking skills or functioning forward line for seasons now. What has changed? Basically nothing. Team is basically the same, they shuffled a few assistants about, moved a couple of players. I agree with Chris - I just don't see where any marked improvement comes from in that equation, and Chris and I are hardly alone in that thought...
Tricky
Guest
Nick Maxwell is the new leadership mentor at the Pies and that would include the tutoring of Bucks in that area
Tricky
Guest
IIRC MM took a spoon side to consecutive GF's in 3 years.
Harsh Truth Harry
Roar Rookie
You wait, Ross Lyon will be introduced by Eddie just like Mick was all those years ago. Platform raised with smoke and glitter, Ross grinning like a banchee at the size of his Eddie pay cheque and all resplendent in a black and white jumper! Purple he says? What purple! It took Malthouse ten years to do anything but my bet Rossy Lyon will get even the Wobbles to the finals at least! Bucks can go host talking footy or some stuff.
Tricky
Guest
Of course it will be an imported Holden not a real one.
Kane
Guest
Every club has back up ruckman but to call that group just there a strength is a bit laughable really.
Macca
Guest
"remember that he is only spending about 20% of his time in the ruck" I do remember that which is why I asked how many games your back up ruckmen have played as the number 1 ruck? Lobbe and Phillips have both played the number 1 ruck spot, Leuenberger, Bellchambers & McKernan all have, Sandilands and Darcy have - who from the Pies? There is a big difference between pinch hitting in the ruck for 20% if the game (generally up against the oppositions second ruckman) and going head to head with the oppositions best ruckman for 80% of the time. Cox isn't a better ruckman than any of the players listed above.
Patty
Guest
Macca, you're being selective with your stats aren't you. I'm sure you'd agree that Cox's hitout and possession stats need to be taken into context, remember that he is only spending about 20% of his time in the ruck. You also conveniently left out goals. You're not going to convince anybody that any of Lobbe, Phillips or Casboult is a better ruckman than Cox. Just accept that our ruck depth is fine, however, your other point about a lack of KPF depth if Cox has to ruck without Grundy is something I agree with and have been highly critical of, just look through some of my previous posts here. Pies definitely have a serious lack of depth in the key position stocks, but that's shifting the conversation onto a different topic.
truetigerfan
Guest
The truth is, Scribe, it's not after one JLT game it's after seasons of going backwards.
Paul
Guest
The move of Moore back The move of the sack forward Both make sense Sack has great awareness and tackles hard Great closing speed , varcoe forward as well Murray and Adams back as well Get on
Macca
Guest
Patty - 1 more thing how many full games have your clubs back up ruckman played as the teams number 1 ruck? (feel free to combine them into 1 total)
Don Freo
Guest
That's a weird post. Are you blaming me for what Bangkokpussy said?
Macca
Guest
Patty - Cox has played 20 games and only twice registered more than 20 hit outs. For his career he averages 11 per game. Lobbe isn't a great ruckman but hey averages 30% more possessions and more than double the hit outs than Cox (plus more than 5 tackles per game compared to Cox's 2) in his 92 AFL games - he is an experienced hard body who can come into the side and compete. Also Cox's best season was last year where he averaged 16 hit outs, only in his debut year has Lobbe averaged less than 18. The other big difference, and I keep back to this, the other teams back up ruckman aren't playing in their best 22 already! If Cox has to ruck who plays FF? If Lobbe comes in the blues forward line stays the same.
Patty
Guest
Macca all of those examples don't look much different to the pies ruck stocks. All have a couple of good 1st ruck types, some relief ruck options, and some backup stocks in development. The pies have this, I can't see why we keep going round in circles about it. The only real difference I'm seeing is that you don't rate Cox as a ruckman. I don't necessarily rate him as a forward, but he's a pretty good ruck. Certainly better than some of the hacks you named - Casboult, Philips and Lobbe... hahahaha come on mate.
Paul
Guest
Yeah right lets go on jlt as that's a great guide 11 changes to come into that team against a team with only 3 or 4 to come in We will see in first 2 rounds When They win them they won't be paying $ 26 for top 4 All seem to forget 3 games in 12 days in the wet too Essendon geelong carlton Very fair that last year and lost 2 Won't happen this year
Macca
Guest
Patty - once again you refuse to acknowledge the points made or the questions raised but instead try to deflect it on to what about them? As for the question (unlike you I answer questions) if you look at Freo they have Sandilands & Darcy plus 3 other untried ruckmen plus the likes of Pearce, Taberner & Apeness all around the 200cm mark who could probably go through if required. Carlton have Kreuzer with Casboult giving a chop out in the best 22 with Phillips & Lobbe (a drop in quality from Kreuzer but significantly better than Cox) with De Koning in reserve or they could use the 200cm McKay through there and just play 2 tall forwards or bring in Kerr) Essendon have Bellchambers & Leuenberger (neither as good as Grundy but both well above Cox) plus McKernan (better than Cox) with Draper & Lavender untried Do I need to go on? Most clubs have at least 1 backup ruckman who is better than Cox and that they can bring into to the side without leaving a big hole in their other key posts.
Patty
Guest
Tell ya what Macca - why don't you give us an example of a club with good ruck depth. Don't forget to take into account your quality and quantity criteria.
truetigerfan
Guest
The question RA is why do people like Peter continue to regurgitate the same old rubbish in support of Bucks and Eddie year in, year out. Blind faith? Or failure to accept the truth? Love is certainly blind!
Macca
Guest
Peter - "The difference between ordinary and extraordinary is that little extra" You shouldn't have to have a "no drinking policy" to tell you that you shouldn't drink so much that two hours after you have stopped drinking you are still 0.095 in preseason if you want to be extraordinary.