The face palm before the storm: Geelong's 2018 season preview

“The consequences of successful action seemed almost as terrible as the consequences of inaction, and they could be more horrible for those who took the action. A bubble can easily be punctured. But to incise it with a needle so that it subsides gradually is a task of no small delicacy.”
― John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash of 1929

So is the position the Geelong FC finds itself in over the next few years.

Geelong has one last chance at a premiership in 2018 before it needs a brutal cleanout and rebuild of the club. Not that such decidedly proactive action will happen of course. No, we’d rather drift aimlessly toward the inevitable.

For years Tim Cook, Chris Scott, and co. have been constructing a list of mature age players – most traded in – that has left the Geelong list demographic at bursting point. The great crash is coming it’s no longer a question of if, but when.

So the time is now for Geelong, but do we have the game style or players capable of winning a premiership on the wide open spaces of the MCG? Do we have a coaching staff innovative enough to understand the modern tactics of the game and counteract them or reproduce them to a higher level?

A coaching staff capable of communicating properly with the entire playing group, forming relationships built on trust creating mutual learning, instead of relationships only formed with a select few that ferment boyish cliques?

Can they create a culture and narrative that the players buy in to? Recent evidence would suggest not.

For Geelong to win the flag in 2018, the Geelong coaching staff need to have the courage to drastically reconfigure the forward line and, with the departures of Andrew Mackie and Tom Lonergan, they’ll need to do the same in defence.

As we’ve come to see however, post-2011, the Geelong footy club isn’t built on tactical innovation or drastic anything.

Rather, it bumbles along, only changing a little here and there falsely believing it’s very close to a premiership rather like a child chasing a pigeon in a town square and watching it fly off just out of reach again and again.

Most children learn fairly quickly you can’t catch a bird by chasing it but need other more advanced creative means with which to capture your prize.

The conservative GFC seemingly haven’t learned such a lesson, believing slight tweaking of the structures of yesteryear will see them through.

Chris Scott, contrary to his own grandstanding on how the game should be played, actually prefers conservative highly-structured defensive football over taking chances and moving the ball quickly.

When Geelong does move it quickly on transition, seldom is it with run and carry which, if turned over, can horribly expose a defence but equally can break opposition lines and almost guarantee a goal. Rather, it’s with the old short spot up kick from half-back then quick turn and long kick into the forward 50.

If it’s turned over, the defensive set up can still remain behind the ball intact. If the ball ends up in a stoppage inside forward 50 only then will the Geelong defence press up to keep it in.

One suspects Scott’s natural concern about exposing Geelong’s defence in a post-Mackie and Lonergan era would lead to a majority measured short kicking style of football this season, backing in the decision making and skills of a star-studded midfield.

With Gary Ablett, Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Sam Menegola, Tim Kelly and Mitch Duncan in that midfield, Scott won’t be able to count on mids that will run as hard defensively as they will downhill.

The Cats need to do more in 2018 if they’re to taste ultimate succcess. (Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

Geelong will attempt to create stoppages inside its forward 50 and back the strength of its physically superior mature midfield to win contested ball and create goals.

The Cats certainly won’t be relying on quick transition and intercepts for the lion’s share of their scoring opportunities in 2018 – especially at wider grounds like the MCG. Instead, a rolling maul will be the Geelong way in most of their MCG games this season.

Like the last few years, I expect we’ll see more of the same old same old down at Geelong.

An imaginative coach might see if we have a better structure in our forward line without Hawkins up there, or if we played a small agile defence, whether we could stymy small forward lines like Richmond’s while providing exciting speed and rebound of our own off half back.

These ideas and changes to a conservative predictable game style require courage and vision which just doesn’t seem to exist down at Sleepy Hollow.

Geelong, based on its playing list, recruitment strategy, and age demographic really needs to at least make a grand final in 2018 but, in all likelihood, will at best win one final and bring to an end any chance of premiership success in the post-2011 Chris Scott era.

Who to watch out for

Tim Kelly: – With his dynamic speed bursting from the contest and silky skills, Kelly could be more important than Ablett in giving the Cats an outside chance at a flag in 2018.

Gary Ablett and Patrick Dangerfield up forward – What will Ablett and Dangerfield produce in the forward 50 for Geelong in 2018?

Can their interchangeable forward line presence elevate Geelong’s forward line from dysfunctional to fluid, from workmanlike to mercurial? No team can win a final kicking just five goals in a game as Geelong did in the 2017 qualifying final against Richmond.

Being able to generate much higher scores against the better sides on the MCG is the no. 1 issue for Geelong in 2018.

Jamaine Jones – Chris Scott is said not to like players who play in bursts but, given a chance and confidence to back their own judgment and skills, such players can be match winners – especially in tight finals.

Jamaine Jones has electric speed and could be a dynamic X-factor inside the forward 50, providing immense tackling pressure and finishing skill in a tired looking part of the ground for Geelong.

Esava Ratugolea – The athleticism, booming kick, and strong direct leading of Esava mean he could be the No. 1 candidate to play key forward and part-time ruck, perhaps overtaking Wylie Buzza and Rhys Stanley in the Cats line-up.

Jed Bews – In what’s shaping as a do or die season for ‘the Hoops’, Bews simply needs to stand up to provide run, carry, speed, and dynamism off half-back and take the pressure off Zach Tuohy as the lone ranger giving zip out of defence.

Under the pump

Mark Blicavs – Blicavs desperately needs to nail down the key position defensive post it seems he’s been trained up for all summer.

Since the removal of the third man up rule, ‘Blitz’ has gone from a very good ruck midfielder to a very average jack of all trades but master of none.

He finally has a focus and needs to produce or, with the Cats now-bolstered midfield depth, be left on the sidelines.

Rhys Stanley – Do I really have to explain why?

Rhys Stanley needs to lift. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)

Daniel Menzel – Despite his inspirational comeback story, the reality is Menzel has struggled to adapt to the defensive side of modern AFL, where forward 50 pressure is arguably the most important area for pressure on the ground.

This has led to an impression that he’s somewhat selfish and craves the glory of a goal more than the work without ball in hand needed to create it.

In 2018, if he doesn’t lift the defensive side of his game he now has far more competition for spots in his role.

Chris Scott – Chris finally has the players at his disposal to create a premiership winning game style and strategy but will have to have the courage to look outside the box.

If Geelong fail to make a big impression again in 2018, not even the club spin doctors and his own car salesman rhetoric will save him from the ire of an increasingly frustrated supporter base.

Tom Hawkins, Sam Menegola, Lachie Henderson (in finals) – Blicavs should’ve made this list too but has already been spoken about.

All four have put in a majority of dismal finals performances over the last two finals campaigns and simply need to stand up when it counts in September 2018 if Geelong is to go anywhere near premiership glory.

Predicted finish in 2018: Fifth
Predicted Best and Fairest winner: Patrick Dangerfield
Predicted leading goalkicker: Tom Hawkins
Predicted best first-year player: Tim Kelly