Where should your team be right now?

If you look at the standings early in the season, it’s hard to tell how your team’s actually doing unless you’re paying attention to the competition they and the teams around them have faced so far.

Gold Coast’s impressive start comes on the back of three opponents who were all in the bottom third last year; Sydney’s had to repeat last year’s front-loaded schedule that saw them go 0-6 to start 2017, followed by 15-3 the rest of the way.

Eventually, it will all balance out. Eventually.

But right now? Here’s a quick way to tell – let’s compare each team’s record with what the various prognostication methods led us to expect of them so far.

Adelaide (currently third, 2-1, 131% [+73 points], ELO-FF rating of 76.7)
The oddsmakers expected them to win all three games (3-0, +35.5 points). My ELO-Following Football rating system projected them at 2-0-1, +48 points. AFL.com.au does weekly predictions, and they thought the Crows should be 2-1, +29 points.

The Roar also predicted 2-1; the pundits at The Age said they’d be 1-2, and the CrownBet’s “CrowdBet” percentages suggest that the populace foresaw a 3-0 start to the Adelaide season.

Overall? About right: competitive towards the top of the ladder. Collingwood, Gold Coast, and Carlton are all coming to Adelaide over the next four weeks – you’d think they should be able to have at least 5-2 under their belts by the time they play Port in Round 8.

Brisbane (currently 17th, 0-3, 82% [-56], rating of 32.5)
Oddsmakers ELO-FF, AFL.com.au, The Roar, The Age, and CrowdBet all predicted 0-3 for the Lions so far this season. Point spreads range from -78 to -90.

Overall? Slightly better than expected, mostly from Sunday’s close game with Port, despite the bagel in the W-column. Guarantee they won’t be 0-8: one (or more) of Richmond, Gold Coast, GWS, Collingwood or the Bulldogs should give them a win.

Carlton (currently 18th, 0-3, 74% [-84], rating of 29.2)
Oddsmakers predicted 1-2, -27.5 points. ELO-FF predicted 1-2, down 36 points. AFL.com.au actually said 2-1, +12 points at this juncture. The Roar, The Age and CrowdBet all had the Blues at 1-2 at this point in the season.

Overall? Disappointing – nobody had them winless at this juncture. We won’t be surprised if they go 0-8, however, even with winnable games v. North and Dogs coming up.

Collingwood (currently 14th, 1-2, 90% [-26], rating of 47.8)
According to both the oddsmakers and ELO-FF, the Magpies were expected to be 1-2 with about a one point differential in the red. AFL.com.au has them 0-3 (-66 points), while the Roar, the Age and CrowdBet all forecast a 1-2 start to the season.

Overall? Right about where we expected them, which isn’t necessarily good news for Magpie Nation. They play the Crows, Dons, Tigers, Lions, and Cats the next five weeks: 1-7 is not impossible, but 4-4 seems unlikely.

Essendon (currently 13th, 1-2, 92% [-25], rating of 42.7)
Oddsmakers foresaw a 2-1 start, +21.5; our ELO-FF system thought their 2-1 start would have a +5 margin. All the other prognosticators saw a 2-1 start as well, except for The Age, which thought they’d be 3-0 at this point in the season.

Overall? Disappointing. ELO-FF rating dove nine points last two weeks. Possible they go 1-6 if things go as this game did (Port, Magpies, Demons, Hawks).

Fremantle (currently 10th, 2-1, 98% [-6], rating of 31.0)
Oddsmakers: 1-2. -17. ELO-FF: 1-2. -47. AFL.com.au: 0-3, -54. All others 1-2.

Overall? Above expected, thanks partly to the convenience of Gold Coast’s “home” loss this weekend. Rating and percentage indicate it’s somewhat smoke and mirrors. But three of their next five games are winnable; they may not be done surprising us yet.

Geelong (currently 12th, 1-2, 96% [-13], rating of 59.4)
Oddsmakers thought they’d be 2-0-1, with a tie to Melbourne the only blemish. ELO-FF had a tie to Hawthorn making them 1-1-1. The others are all across the board: AFL.com.au said 2-1, as did The Roar; the Age said 1-2, but CrowdBet thought they’d be 3-0 by now.

Overall? “Dangerwoodlett” is 0-2. I feel prescient right now. You could’ve made good money forecasting the Kangaroos ahead of Geelong at this stage.

After St Kilda on Sunday, they get Port, Sydney and GWS. 2-5 is staring them in the face.

Gold Coast (currently sixth, 2-1, 111% [+22], rating of 26.5 [18th])
Oddsmakers had them 1-2 at this point, down 28 points. ELO-FF started them in last place, so they’re “supposed” to be 0-3. AFL.com.au figured they’d be 2-1 (-1 point), The Roar, The Age and CrowdBet 1-2.

Overall? Take a wild guess. Even outnumbered at their “home” game in the stands hundreds to one, they held their competitive edge against a Purple Haze that was fortunate for the freebie.

5-2 would not surprise me before their trip to China, and I was the one who originally had them in 19th place this season. I will eat my Adelaide player later.

Greater Western Sydney (currently second, 2-1, 135% [+82], rating of 68.4)
The oddsmakers and ELO-FF both have them at 2-1 at this stage (+31 and +22 respectively). AFL.com.au and The Roar both said 3-0 was their bet; The Age has them 2-0-1 (a tie with Sydney) and CrowdBet at 2-1.

Overall? They own the highest percentage and margin (even over 3-0 Port) and will be favourites to be 8-1 entering June unless injuries keep mounting. Hard to complain.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

Hawthorn (currently eighth, 2-1, 108% [+22], rating of 56.3)
Oddsmakers said 1-2 (-14.5 points); the ELO-FF had them at 1-1-1 with the aforementioned tie to the Cats in there. AFL.com.au thought 1-2 as well, although the Roar has them at 2-1, while the Age and CrowdBet thought 1-2 more likely.

Overall? Better than most expected. They face Melbourne, North, Saints and Bombers the next four weeks: win three, which they should, and they’ll be favourites to make finals.

Melbourne (currently fourth, 2-1, 123% [+60], rating of 56.0)
Oddsmakers have the Demons in a 2-0-1 mode, that tie with Geelong the only battle scar. We have them at 2-1 in the ELO-FF. While AFL.com.au predicted a 3-0 start, as do The Roar and The Age, CrowdBet only have them 2-1, and two of my other sources had them at 1-2! All over the place…

Overall? Kind of in the middle of where they were forecast. Their one loss was by three to the Cats; their two wins were over bottom four quality teams. It’s hard to tell what the Demons really are as of yet. Hawthorn, Richmond and Essendon in rounds 4-6 may tell us a ton more.

North Melbourne (currently 11th, 1-2, 99.6% [-1], rating of 39.7)
The only one of our quoted sources that expected a single victory out of the Kangaroos so far was our own ELO-FF system…but we thought it would be against Gold Coast, not St Kilda. Everyone else had them on the way to the spoon at 0-3.

Overall? Any win is a good win. And they’re at the top of the 1-2 teams right now, above Geelong and Essendon. Hard to complain!

Port Adelaide (currently first, 3-0, 135% [+78], rating of 63.2)
All across the board, the Power were expected to be 2-1 at this juncture, from 56 to 74 points to the good.

Overall? One more win than expected, and a big scalp for a supposed “flat-track bully”, so kudos to the league leaders. Adelaide in round 8 looks like their most likely loss opportunity before travelling to China.

Richmond (currently ninth, 2-1, 101% [+3], rating of 69.4)
Oddsmakers thought they’d be 2-1; ELO-FF had them at 2-0-1 (tying Adelaide), both AFL.com.au and The Age figured the Tigers would be 3-0 by now, while the Roar and CrowdBet both thought 2-1 was more likely.

Overall? We’ve had them drop ratings points in all three games so far, so the record’s not as impressive as it looks (insert “Richmond in ninth place” joke here). But every game from now until June is winnable, and except for West Coast at Optus, the Tigers should be favoured to be no worse than 9-2 going to Port Adelaide in R12.

St Kilda (currently 15th, 1-2, 73% [-76], rating of 38.0)
The Saints were universally expected to be 2-1 at this juncture, with wins against Brisbane and North followed by a loss to the Crows.

Overall? They’ve lost rating points every week (including their win), and only the Dogs have a worse percentage than the Saints. With Geelong, the Giants, Hawthorn, and Melbourne on deck, they’re looking 1-6 squarely in the halo unless something turns around quickly.

Sydney (currently seventh, 2-1, 108% [+22], rating of 73.0)
The ELO-FF and the oddsmakers had identical 3-0 records for the Swans (both +39 points, in fact). The others run 2-1, 2-1, 2-0-1, and 3-0 (Crowdbet loves the two Sydney squads).

Overall? A competitive loss to Port this year isn’t embarrassing. They host Adelaide in Round 5, but otherwise, there’s no reason they couldn’t make it to their Round 14 bye now with at least ten wins, maybe 11 or even 12 if Buddy stays healthy.

West Coast (currently fifth, 2-1, 114% [+37], rating of 55.4)
The oddsmakers have yet to make the Eagles a favourite, listing them 0-3 so far. ELO-FF has them at 1-2, favouring them this weekend hosting the Cats. All other pundits are similar, either 0-3 (AFL.com.au and Crowdbet) or 1-2.

Overall? Better than expected, obviously. But Gold Coast, Carlton and Freo make 5-1 look very manageable. After that, a .500 record probably gets them into September…

Western Bulldogs (currently 16th. 1-2, 67% [-112], rating of 34.8)
Oddsmakers and ELO-FF have identical 1-2 marks with a -28 margin. Everyone else has the same 1-2 record except The Roar, which figured them with an 0-3 record, having not gone with the crowd and picked West Coast to win in Etihad in R2.

(Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

They went with reason and bet against them last week, but so did everybody. No shame there.

Overall? The Dogs were at a negative 133 margin after two games. Two. Ask yourself which is more likely: this week’s defeat of Essendon is the real Footscray, and they’ll play Sydney close at Etihad this Saturday, or the real team is the one the Giants cruised over by eighty-plus in week one, and the “other” Sydney squad will have the chance to beat that mark this weekend.

Yeah, me too.

So, looking ahead, what do the pundits see happening in the next couple of rounds?

The favourites next week are generally going to be Adelaide, GWS, Richmond, Sydney, probably Port, Hawthorn, Geelong, North and West Coast. In Round 5, expect the favourites to be GWS, West Coast, Port, Hawthorn and Fremantle, with four games that could be toss-ups in two weeks: Sydney/Adelaide, Brisbane/Gold Coast Suns, Melbourne/Richmond and Collingwood/Essendon (depending on how they’re trending by then).

If that’s the case, we could very well be looking at a ladder that looks something like this in two weeks:

Port Adelaide (5-0)
GWS, West Coast, Hawthorn (4-1)
Sydney, Adelaide, Richmond (4-1 or 3-2)
Fremantle (3-2)
Melbourne, Gold Coast (3-2 or 2-3)
North Melbourne, Geelong (2-3)
Essendon, Collingwood (2-3 or 1-4)
St Kilda, Western BD (1-4)
Brisbane (1-4 or 0-5)
Carlton (0-5)

And we were projecting records for most of the teams around Round 8 in this piece…

Port, GWS, Richmond (7-1)
Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney (6-2)
Hawthorn, West Coast (5-3)
Fremantle, Gold Coast (4-4)
Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong (3-5)
No. Melbourne, Western BD (2-6)
Brisbane, St Kilda (1-7)
Carlton (0-8)

Of course, since the best prognosticators we could find last year were only right ⅔ of the time, as always, take every prediction you read with a grain or seventy of salt!