Lappies Labuschagne, Dillon Hunt, Pablo Matera and Michael Hooper looked good in my last piece, ‘Super Rugby stat deep dive: Who is tackling the most and the best?‘, regarding tacklers who want to tackle more and get up quickly to do so, dominating a lot of ball carriers, and seldom missing.
David Pocock has fewer minutes on his 2018 scorecard, but also looks like he is up for it.
As a reminder, we found the seven most prolific tacklers and added three notable opensiders who are in the SANZAAR test picture. We worked with two novel stats, like dominant tackles per 80 minutes (DT:80) and average time between tackle attempts (TBT), but we also looked the traditional stat of tackle success rate given that all studied are high-volume tacklers who are not only stuck next to rucks.
The tale of the tape was:
Success Rate (among ten SR loose forwards with high tackle volume)
- David Pocock: 98 per cent
- Dillon Hunt: 93 per cent
- Lappies Labuschagne: 92 per cent
- Matt Todd: 92 per cent
- Pablo Matera: 87 per cent
- Sam Cane: 87 per cent
- Luke Whitelock: 86 per cent
- Michael Hooper: 84 per cent
- Siya Kolisi: 82 per cent
- Kwagga Smith: 81 per cent
(AP Photo/Matt Dunham)
After seeing tearaway flankers Hooper, Kolisi, and Kwagga lag on tackle percentage and wondering whether it’s because they chase a few more losing causes than other forwards due to their superior speed and agility or it’s because they sprint farther up into the backfield and their misses may create hits for teammates behind the gain line, I overlaid DT:80 and found the following.
Dominant tackles per 80 minutes
- Lappies Labuschagne: 3.83
- Michael Hooper: 2.90
- David Pocock: 2.75
- Luke Whitelock: 2.50
- Matt Todd: 2.16
- Siya Kolisi: 1.42
- Dillon Hunt: 1.40
- Pablo Matera: 1.33
- Sam Cane: 1.30
- Kwagga Smith: 0.68
Kwagga clearly has issues on defence which could prevent him from ever having a real test career, and TBT is a problem for Kolisi. Hunt’s and Labuschagne’s work rate as tacklers was phenomenal.
So I flagged Kolisi and Kwagga, which pointed to a potential weakness for the Springboks if only domestic players are selected. But in the comments Baylion made an excellent point about hyperactivity on offence affecting defence and wondered if Kolisi’s higher carry rate was hurting his tackling.
Actually when I stacked the ten ‘super tacklers’ in order of carries per 80 minutes (C:80) I found this:
- Pablo Matera: 12.08 (phenomenal given he has also made 110 tackles)
- David Pocock: 11.03 (I had noticed the Brumbies are giving him the pill more)
- Sam Cane: 9.77
- Luke Whitelock: 8.78 (by way of contrast Akira Ioane is carrying 12.5 per 80)
- Michael Hooper: 8.58
- Kwagga Smith: 8.10
- Siya Kolisi: 6.14
- Lappies Labuschagne: 5.66
- Matt Todd: 3.83
- Dillon Hunt: 4.15
We see how well-rounded Cane is compared to Todd and Hunt, but we also see that Kolisi’s workrate is down on both sides of the ball.
Pooper looks better because Pocock is running and passing better, and to that point I looked at passing. Of the ten loosies, Hooper is the one who is by far the most likely to throw a pass, and Cane is also a linking player now.
(Dan Mullan/Getty Images)
Passes per carry
- Michael Hooper: 84 per cent
- Sam Cane: 64 per cent
- Dillon Hunt: 58 per cent
- Lappies Labuschagne: 56 per cent
- Matt Todd: 53 per cent
- Luke Whitelock: 49 per cent
- David Pocock: 48 per cent
- Kwagga Smith: 47 per cent
- Pablo Matera: 45 per cent
- Siya Kolisi: 30 per cent
Hooper is passing a lot. So are the Kiwi opensiders. Kolisi is not.
But passing is also about accuracy. Who is throwing good passes most often? I understand a recipient can drop a good pass, but over time this sorts itself out and some guys just throw easier-to-catch passes. Matt Todd is the tidiest passer in the group. Again Kolisi is the worst.
Passing completion rate
- Matt Todd: 81 per cent
- Michael Hooper: 78 per cent
- Luke Whitelock: 76 per cent
- Sam Cane: 75 per cent
- Pablo Matera: 73 per cent
- David Pocock: 72 per cent
- Kwagga Smith: 71 per cent
- Dillon Hunt: 60 per cent
- Lappies Labuschagne: 58 per cent
- Siya Kolisi: 56 per cent
We see that in addition to not carrying very much, Hunt is not a great passer. Kolisi does not pass much and is not connecting when he does – he has completed only three offloads, contrasting with Matera’s eight and Hooper’s and Cane’s eight offloads.
Hooper (and Pooper) is looking better and better unless set piece and ruck-cleaning are too compromised. We’ll look at those in my next article.
It’s very difficult to assess efficacy of carrying in a statistical sense. Gainline success is tricky, even though important, because Akira Ioane and Whitelock, for instance, have to eke out a yard or two a lot, and sometimes just not losing ground from the base of a scrum is brilliant.
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But if we take the total carries, and find out what percentage of carries end up in a tackle break, line break or offload, maybe we get a clue: TB-LB-O/carry (a terrible title). Perhaps ‘big carries’.
Here we are looking for excitement. Akira Ioane is not on our list, because he is not as interested in tackling as the All Blacks would like him to be, but he would have a fantastic big carry percentage.
He has 26 tackle breaks, seven line breaks and five offloads on 100 carries, so I will give him a 35 per cent score!
In our group, with Matera, Hooper and Kwagga having the most big carries in total, it’s as follows.
- Kwagga Smith: 30 per cent (of his carries have a line break, tackle break, or offload)
- Michael Hooper: 27 per cent
- Dillon Hunt: 23 per cent
- Siya Kolisi: 23 per cent
- Lappies Labuschagne: 18 per cent
- Pablo Matera: 18 per cent
- Matt Todd: 14 per cent
- Luke Whitelock: 12 per cent
- David Pocock: 12 per cent
- Sam Cane: 11 per cent
This is probably highly correlative to speed. Cane and Pocock don’t have a lot of explosion any more after a decade of punishment, but Kwagga, Hooper and Kolisi are lethal when they get a bit of space.
A mixed bag, but clearly Matera, Cane and Hooper are workhorses, and some myths about passing are not based in reality.
The next chapter will be about the breakdown.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
We’ve just had an article by Bishop about NZ needing to help Aus out of the rugby mire or else we go down with them….well the Ardie/Cane 2 card trick is there for all to see…why wouldnt you take that up with similar players in Pocock and Hooper? Yes, and "Bishop" is listening to this discussion :D For NZ, the issue never arose because you have Kieran Read covering all the bases at 8. What would be interesting is to see where David Pocock and Michael Hooper would fit in were they available to the All Blacks selectors... Now there's a Q!
Hello
Roar Rookie
Loving these Harry Cane is such a well rounded player - it has surprised me a bit. And Pooper is looking better and better
Baz
Guest
Palu IMO was one of the best 8's we have had (when fit) in recent times. I think however durability is the issue here.
Baz
Guest
yes. that would work. I think this will provide an objective measure of 7 'On ball' work rate.
Hugo
Guest
Sterling stuff, Harry. You do all of that at the Blu? Walk into any rugby pub in Sydney and the talk immediately gets around to the Pooper paradox. We see Kieran Read, last man in the line, race over for a try and we say Why can't we have an eight like that? We see WW - pre injury - making all kinds of yards and we say, Why can't we have an eight like that? Well, it seems we can't. Pooper may be Cheika's choice for the Irish, and with Jim Ryan and Dev Toner in the lineout, we don't have the extra jumper we'll need. Help, we need ideas.
Harry Jones
Expert
I think that is exactly right (Cane is having to make the first hard yards).
Ken Catchpole’s Other Leg
Guest
Oh, and great article Harry. Stats are a bit like the adage on education - a little learning (or a single stat) can be a dangerous thing. So once begun a stat analysis needs more and more nuance to get clearer and fairer pictures. Of course intimately rugby is poetry and a coach will ‘feel’ his way to a selection in the end. But this has been a fascinating series. Of special interest to me is the quality of both Hooper and Pocock, and why it has been so hard for Cheika to avoid selecting Pooper. Do you have any stats on how many minutes the selection panels from the three nations spend following the geniuses on this thread? ? Great work.
Ken Catchpole’s Other Leg
Guest
That is a quality observation Crash Ball. The comparison with Bismarck and Marx is eloquent but I would like to offer a counterpoint. A loose backrower is more likely to play 80 than a front rower. Prop and hooker are positions demanding 2 personnel per game. Perfect for a squad with two, hard to separate, experts in the position. Back row, especially 7, is a different game. But having said that, I have often wondered, similar to you, what our team would look like if it was wel-rounded enough to have Hooper or Pocock on the bench as a finisher. The dilemma then would be - who starts? And if so, whether the starter stays on the field when the finisher comes on, which means we have Pooper for the last 20 of every game. Then I start dreaming of a large,jumping, ball-carrying 6 or 8 who plays 80, or at least plays a good 20 to compliment the final Pooper phase. Then I think of Fardy. Then I feel sad. Poor fella my country.
Harry Jones
Expert
I know That observation (speed) was not from the stats That was just me looking at the tv None of them are slow But Cane has lost a step
Carlos The Argie
Guest
Well, now I disagree with myself. Over time, players develop techniques. Coaches adjust their strategies, players work on their individual skills. So maybe you CAN see changes over time. It seems that in rugby, one year maybe a sufficient sample size to see "viable trends". I hate it when I argue with me and I lose. Terrible.
Carlos The Argie
Guest
This is not so complicated! You have to be patient and it becomes clear. You can also see then the team's tendencies on how to use players by looking at individual numbers. I wonder, for example, if Cane's stats are different when he has a black shirt than when he has the Chiefs one. This would be an interesting exercise as Matera would theoretically be more similar. Unless the same team with a different coach (Hourcade versus Ledesma) shows in different game strategies and player utilizations.
Carlos The Argie
Guest
Harry, though I am very pleased with Matera's performance, I have to say that it shows one of the big vulnerabilities of the jaguares. The over dependency on him. In addition, you said Cane was slow(er). I seem to recall a match very recently when he run through the middle and scored a great try, no back was able to catch him. It also seems to me that all this is sample size dependent. It is the illusion of statistical significance given few matches. It has been described before as "Hot streaks", which you know are false and we always end up with regression to means. So, I think you have to be careful about making comparisons between players. I presume that 5 to 10 percentage points difference in many cases is the same number. Unless you show the "N".
Nobrain
Roar Guru
This is very hard for me, Nobrain, I am happy the Pablo Matera is up there along with the best. He was having a great year.
Harry Jones
Expert
Yes, I think Mostert and PSDT realise Lood and EE are probably first choice locks when healthy PSDT is great to have on the bench bc of his versatility
Harry Jones
Expert
He’s healthy and fit, after good rehab. Yes, looks like Rassie is talking about Bismarck, too...
Do you think Rassie might consider him at 7?
Harry Jones
Expert
PSDT carries 11.5 times per 80:00. So, he is second only to Matera in this openside/tackle8 list. His tackle percentage is up to 87% (equal to Cane and Matera) even though he's being asked to play flank, a lot. His passing and handling isn't bad--better than 3-4 of the opensiders. What I like about PSDT is he always seems to be adding skills and awareness.
Harry Jones
Expert
Nice Probably need to have gradations (0-3) on effectiveness of each ruck attendance.
Harry Jones
Expert
Schalk Brits has been a hooker most of his career, but played more like Dane Coles. Extra loosie. Also, Deon Fourie played both for WP and now in France.
Harry Jones
Expert
Kwagga is a serious weapon on attack, but even then, he is prone to the "wildness" of 7s, where you are always keeping the ball moving. On defense, he is not good, yet. But he has no fear, and I think he can improve a lot, still.