It might seem obvious, but often the early season ladder can be misleading. Not so in 2018: the best teams of the year to date are currently in the finals seedings.
History shows we can expect at least five of our eventual finalists to be sitting comfortably inside the top eight after eight weeks of football. Since the turn, an average of 6.5 teams that played finals have been in the eight at the roughly one-third mark of the season – in 2006, 2013 and 2015 we could’ve stopped the season there and then.
If we did that in 2018, right now, would there be too many complaints? Not complaints about missing two-thirds of a season of football, because of course. But complaints about teams missing out on finals action that ‘should’ve’ made it in? I suspect not.
From top to bottom, the current top eight have played the best football of 2018, and would be deserved finalists if they manage to keep their spots for the rest of the season. However, we can make the case for some teams on the outside looking in.
Greater Western Sydney’s biggest struggle has been converting its ground ball game into scoring opportunities. And that’s because it has been forced to turn to a patchwork forward line and attacking outside midfield group, without any continuity.
The ninth-placed Giants are 12th in scoring, and even worse when adjusting for time in possession (14th). That’ll – presumably – correct itself at least a bit as the likes of Toby Greene, Brett Deledio, Josh Kelly, Tom Scully come back from injury, and Jeremy Cameron gets a decent run at things.
North Melbourne rose to eighth on my fancy shmancy expected wins formula this week, after playing Richmond closer than anyone not named the Adelaide Crows yesterday. They’re the subject of this week’s Thursday column so let’s keep our powder dry now.
The Collingwood bubble was let down just a little after yesterday’s stifling affair with Geelong. I didn’t watch the game in full but the bits I saw suggested a team without an answer to the Cats’ defensive zoning, not helped by a poor day in front of goal. They’re certainly a rung or two above the dregs, but still look that far or more behind the best in the league.
And Fremantle remains as confounding as ever, doing all they needed to do and nothing more against St Kilda. One does wonder how the team would go without the singular presence of presumptive Brownlow medallist Nat Fyfe between the arcs. We’ll learn plenty about them over the next four weeks with a couple of tricky away trips and two tough home opponents in the ‘Roos and Crows.
(Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
We draw the line here. The Western Bulldogs are playing for 2021. Gold Coast were never going to be able to do much this season on account of the Commonwealth Games, and so it looks. Essendon might go into voluntary administration before the month is out. St Kilda couldn’t score a snowboarding contest. Carlton are playing for 2021. Brisbane are cursed to lose every close game.
Those four teams still gunning for the eight with realistic ambition all come with a but. The biggest of those is needing to displace a team above them.
Fortunately, the season being as it is means Fremantle could jump into eighth spot with an (admittedly very large) win over Sydney. The Giants, with their draw, could surge to third if results broke their way. North has a better percentage than the three teams immediately above them. Collingwood has a fortnight of football that affords them a chance to build on their 50:50 platform.
Port Adelaide look the most vulnerable of the current finalists, almost by default. The Power hasn’t been the offensive force many expected them to be, and aren’t as glued to their high press as they have been in recent years. Instead, Port is a stoppage machine, as we saw in that stellar second half against the Adelaide Crows.
Sydney’s win over Hawthorn was full of merit, even if the conditions suited their style better than the Hawks. Winning the way they did – coming from behind, kicking five straight in the last – was all about effort and application.
You’ve seen the stat but it bears repeating: Sydney is 4-0 away from home, and 1-3 at the SCG (with two of those close losses). Those four away wins are crucial, because once Sydney’s home ground advantage regresses to the mean they will afford an enormous leg up.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Melbourne’s drubbing of the Gold Coast Suns – 85 inside 50s, a stunning 46 shots on goal, +94 in uncontested possessions – corrected the club’s underlying metrics to the point where their record is who they are. Three weeks into a calk walk patch in their fixture, the Dees look much more like the team I expected them to be coming into the year.
Hawthorn shouldn’t feel too poorly about their loss to the Swans. Their football identity is clear, and they have the personnel to execute it. Whether they’re a top four team was always an open question, despite what the week-behind mainstream writers told you last week, although they’ve got the game to get there.
Adelaide got their heart ripped out against Port Adelaide. But down most of their starting core midfield from last season – friends, Paul Seedsman, Rory Atkins, Cam Ellis-Yolmen and Hugh Greenwood are fine players but should not be your fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh highest disposal getters – still has plenty of upside. Perhaps the only concern is the Crows have played a fairly meek slate of opponents to date, which will circle back in the second half of the season.
Geelong have crept all the way up to third, playing their own way as tends to be coach Chris Scott’s method. Content to play in their back half, the Cats are anything but quick, and long to play keepy off. That could be to help an undermanned back six, which was a little less undermanned this week following the return of Harry Taylor (who had two intercept marks and three score launches among his 20 possessions). And the tough part of the Cats’ draw is over.
That leaves us with the teams in the top two seeds, who happen to face each other in the last game of Round 9. Richmond and West Coast have been the two standouts in a year where there has been fewer standouts than we’re used to. They play with the same ethos – speed with the ball, intensity without it – have the two best defensive sets, and contrasting looks forward of the ball. On paper it looks like the game of the season to date and it should play out as such on the lightning Perth Stadium deck.
Of all the teams sitting pretty inside the eight, the Eagles and Tigers are the two sitting prettiest. After Sunday that won’t change, but we will know for sure whether we’re all chasing Richmond, or whether West Coast deserve to sit alongside them.
Michael Pallaris
Roar Rookie
You might not make top 4, but you'll make the finals for sure.
Chris
Guest
They won't make the Preliminary Final either...Straight sets!!!
Reservoir Animal
Guest
I didn't say a word about history. Just that GFs need to be played at worthy stadia, and outside Victoria everyone's too childish to build such a stadium. You do realise that between 50,000 and 84,000 GF seats are contracted out to people other than club members? You do realise what this means for any Grand Final played away from the MCG?
Davico
Roar Pro
RA Where exactly did I say crowd size does not matter? What I said was if a country of 250 million people can have their showpiece event in stadiums smaller than the MCG and there are Stadiums in the other states (NSW 85k, WA 60k+, SA 50k+) then why is it a given that the GF has to be played at the MCG? I love seeing the GF at the MCG but it gives a handful of clubs a massive advantage on the most important day in the season and does not reward the team that makes the GF over the course of the season. The least you blokes could do is admit that fact but all you do is come up with excuses and things like "history of the game"! Most kids drafted next year would not have a scooby that it was once the VFL
Davico
Roar Pro
There are some big variations in numbers there Cat. Do you know which of those get priority in order?
gameofmarks
Roar Guru
On form and on paper the WCE should be able to bank at lesat 6 of their remaining 7 homes games against: RICH, STK, ESS, GWS, WBD, FREO and MELB. That would put them on 13 wins. So only have to win 2 of their remaining away games to secure a top 4 spot you would think. They have HAW, SYD, ADE, COLL, NTH, PWR and BL.
sammy
Guest
I will call it, if the crows make the finals now, it will be a miracle. they have more than a third of their senior list injured with 7 of those A grade 1st choice players. Likely this week that Tex is out and the Gov IS out for 8 weeks from our forward line leaving Jenkins and a coupe of raw players as key forwards. What really gives us the sh...s is that players like gibson and Keath at round 1 were listed as 2 week injuries, 8 weeks later (not having played a game in that time), they are still listed as injured..ridiculous
Perry Bridge
Guest
#Swannies re North lack of depth. This is recognised - we are the 2nd youngest list - but, as people are seeing currently - the Firsts side is nicely balanced with senior players (who are justifying their places on the list) and getting games into guys like Simpkin, Clarke, and a bunch of others. The players who have exceeded my expectation this year have been Jed Anderson (could he yet become an 'A' grader??) and Billy Hartung (making the most of his abilities to add something to the North team). To me - at the start of the season - I wouldn't have had either in my best 22. The main question marks were around whether Sam Wright and Ben Jacobs could make it back - - and that's been answered thus far in the affirmative. But they are considered 'role' players. That said - Ben Jacobs was drafted #16 in 2010 by Port, ahead of S.Atley, Isaac Smith, Mitch Wallis and Cam Guthrie (keeping mindful Gold Coast had 8 of the top 13 picks that year). What North has currently is perhaps a clearly defined 22 (I would include Taylor Garner in that - he needs a couple more weeks in the VFL though). And with everyone fit - that would put Clarke, Simpkin, Turner, Hrovat, Vickers-Willis, Daw, Davies-Uniacke, Zurhaar and Preuss and I'd like to think Ahern in combat for the last couple of positions each week. The next batch includes guys like Mountford (played 12 games last year and showed a bit), Hibberd (v.good endurance athlete and played 4 games last year), Durdin, Nielsen, Larkey and Ben McKay who all got a taste of it last year. This is where there might be reasonable capacity to cover short term absentees - but not long term. We saw that with no Jacobs last year. But we saw the impact of the loss of Higgins v Port 2 weeks ago. What I'm finding interesting as the year rolls on - is the impact of the stand alone VFL team. This hasn't really been mentioned - however - consider the examples of both 'Footscray' and Richmond stand alone VFL sides in recent years - I would suspect have played a fairly big roll in ensuring that the next guys in each week were properly drilled/prepared for their senior roles.
Don Freo
Guest
I guess you see what you want to see, Rob. When Ablett got injured, so did Ryan for WC...its brilliant new crumbing forward. Both sides were affected. GWS had injuries, sure, but two of them, Cameron and Lobb were back. Meanwhile, WC had NicNat, Shuey and McGovern out (3 of their best 4 players) as well as Mr Consistency (Dom Sheed) and Mr Magic (Liam Ryan). West Coast had more significant outs than GWS.
Cat
Roar Guru
Reservoir Animal
Guest
If crowd size doesn't matter then why shouldn't we play it in a 7K stadium? Or better still, play it in my local park, since the venue deal would be cheaper. Why don't these other states simply build 100K stadiums and not keep trying to get something on the cheap? Is it really that hard?
Rob
Guest
They seem to have come back online since half time v Essendon but im keen to see what happens when they come up against stronger teams that wont allow the dees to bully them as GC did... cant see them losing before the bye tho.
Rob
Guest
West Coast have got sort of lucky 3 times. They copped the dogs when even Carlton or Brisbane would have rolled them, Geelong finished with 3 players on the bench including Ablett, and GWS are injury plagued and in all sorts of trouble. But they are playing good footy and wins even against depleted opponents build confidence - they will fall back into the pack soon but they take Essendons spot in the pre season top 8 predictions for mine. Still think if they can stay with the pack GWS will sneak in - waiting patiently for North to fall but if they dont ill get to watch them humiliate themselves in a final much like Essendon did last year so all good. If i have to accept their existance might as well watch them crash and burn.
Rob
Guest
No. Other states do not have stadiums with the capacity to host the GF. Have a look at the size of the stadiums that host the Superbowl - none are as "small" as the SCG, Adelaide Oval or Perth Stadium.
Kurt
Guest
Yawn.
Don Freo
Guest
It's quite possible that 1 or 2 sides might be a chance with 11 wins and that could be anyone down to 14th in the last round. I imagine 3rd to 9th might be in a battle for top 4 in the last round and 5th to 14th in a race to the top 8 in that last round. I expect this week to not have all the top sides win and there will not be a mini break. The Bullies can take Adelaide, Freo can take down the Swans, the Lions can get their first win against The Hawks and it doesn't matter who wins out of the Eagles or Richmond. The bottleneck will intensify.
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
There's five sides in the eight on 5 and 3.They all play non-eight sides this round. Let's say they all win and there's a lot of predictions suggesting they will. That gives them 6 and 3 and a leg up on 9th to 13th North needed 14 wins to get to eighth in 2012,Carlton only needed 11 in 2013 on the back of 3 losses in their last 5 games ,but it's been 12 or 13 wins since. If eighth is your go,then fine
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
Possibly Port.They've got a tough run after Shanghai, Hawks ,Richmond,Doggies and Demons,their % is so-so and Robbie Gray isn't likely to kick 5 in a quarter against sides with better one-on-one defense than the Crows
Samuel Ord
Roar Guru
Agreed. North Melbourne are playing a wild brand of football, completely ruthless and against the Tigers to be honest - very dirty. It's been a great move, they've totally revamped in the confidence department. But I still think they totally lack the talent to make finals. Ben Brown would've had zero impact on the contest against Richmond without the umpires and he won't get that every week. Waite is a dinosaur and it shows from time to time. Higgins is a star but a risk for injury constantly. I don't think they're close to an A grade midfield either. Cunnington is such a hard nut, and congratulations on the contested football numbers - deserves the record. But he was close to another record too - most clangers. 12 clangers. One off the AFL record. Most by any other player on the ground by nearly double. Finishing with a disposal efficiency of above 60 per cent was some kind of miracle.
Samuel Ord
Roar Guru
Agree 100 per cent. In the modern era you need to have a dream run with injuries to win a premiership. The competition is too even to do it without complete access to your stars for the whole campaign more or less. At the moment the Giants are a 6-7-8 placed side, perhaps winning the in first round of finals but losing in the second. If they make it through the preliminary round I think any of the other three sides will crush them anywhere, anytime. I almost hope they don't make it all together. As a squad they look exhausted already and there's such a long way to go. Would hate to see another preliminary final loss crush the hopes and ambition of talented players.